Things to Read

Here are a couple of interesting things I read this week in between writing game summaries of the playoffs using Win Probabilities.:

Part I:The Sabermetrically-Challenged L.A. Angels Are All About Numbers

Part II: In Scioscia's Words:People Who Think They Know All The A.s Haven't Asked the Right Questions

When I publish the results of my baserunning framework for 2005 I'll have more to comment on here, especially on the advancement of runners from first to third discussed in Part II.

Has Homerun Hitting Changed in Major League Baseball

This study concludes that aside from Sosa, Bonds, and McGwire, homerun hitting has not changed in a statistically significant way and so it questions the effects of steroids. His conclusion:

"On the whole, there is no evidence of increased home run hitting in MLB that cannot be accounted for by the expanded schedule, more teams and games, a slight rise in the number of at bats per game, and the feats of a three magical hitters during four years when they made history. Steroids do not come into the picture, nor is there any need to invoke explanations that go beyond the natural variation of home run hitting, at bats, chance, and the laws of extreme human accomplishment."

I'm interested to hear what others think.