Baserunning for the Ages

I've been writing mostly about defense over at Baseball Prospectus and here in the past couple of months and so I thought I'd revisit the topic of baserunning today.

Although in my column I talked about the greatest baserunners of the Retrosheet era and here have extolled the virtues of Tim Raines, Robin Yount and others, I noticed that I've failed in either venue to list the top and bottom single seasons of that era.

So today here are the top and bottom 50 baserunning seasons in terms of total Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EqBRR). And don't forget that an essay describing the system and its metrics titled "The Tortoise, the Hare, and Juan Pierre" appears in Baseball Prospectus 2008, which I'm told, is shipping now. Also, I'll be talking about the book with Christina Kahrl and Nate Silver Wednesday, March 5th at 7:30 pm at the Tattered Cover Bookstore in Historic LoDo in Denver.

First, the top 50 seasons.

Name                Year    EqGAR  EqSBR  EqAAR  EqHAR  EqOAR TotOpps   EqBRR EqBRRate
Maury Wills         1962      0.8   13.8    2.3    3.6    0.1    848     20.6     1.26
Willie Wilson       1980      0.5   10.0    4.2    3.9    0.5    741     19.1     1.35
Rickey Henderson    1985      2.6    9.8    1.0    3.1    2.3    663     18.8     1.43
Vince Coleman       1986      0.0   11.0    0.3    0.9    4.2    627     16.4     1.26
Willie Wilson       1979      2.1    9.2    0.7    2.8    0.9    563     15.7     1.33
Eric Davis          1986     -0.3   10.2    0.5    1.7    3.2    403     15.3     1.55
Rickey Henderson    1988      2.3    9.0    1.3   -2.0    3.8    650     14.4     1.27
Vince Coleman       1987      2.5    7.1    1.2    2.4    0.8    723     14.1     1.28
Tim Raines Sr       1983      0.9    7.6    1.8    2.7    0.6    762     13.6     1.22
Bobby Bonds         1972      2.0    6.0    1.6    3.6    0.5    517     13.6     1.42
Kenny Lofton        1993      1.5    8.1   -0.1    4.3   -0.5    717     13.3     1.17
Lonnie Smith        1985      2.8    1.4    2.5    2.9    3.1    460     12.8     1.85
Willie Wilson       1987      0.4    7.1    0.6    3.9    0.7    581     12.6     1.24
Juan Pierre         2007      0.3    4.2    1.9    5.0    0.6    666     12.0     1.40
Davey Lopes         1978      0.6    5.8    1.9    1.4    2.1    580     11.8     1.24
Vince Coleman       1985      1.2   10.7    0.7    0.6   -1.4    665     11.8     1.06
Rickey Henderson    1983      0.9    7.8    1.3    0.1    1.6    609     11.7     1.17
Gary Pettis         1985      2.1    7.4    0.7    0.2    1.3    470     11.7     1.31
Johnny Damon        2000      3.1    2.7   -0.7    4.2    2.2    743     11.5     1.33
Ron LeFlore         1979      2.3    5.6    1.3    1.9    0.4    602     11.5     1.30
Davey Lopes         1975      0.4    8.6   -1.3    2.2    1.4    685     11.4     1.14
Barry Larkin        1995      1.3    5.5    1.2    1.3    1.9    526     11.2     1.31
Tim Raines Sr       1985      1.6    9.4    0.8   -0.6    0.0    726     11.2     1.08
Willie Wilson       1983      1.9    7.0   -0.6    1.4    1.5    532     11.2     1.24
Ivan DeJesus        1978      1.0    2.2    1.7    4.5    1.7    625     11.1     1.38
Hanley Ramirez      2006      3.1    1.7    1.3    3.5    1.5    576     11.0     1.50
Joe Morgan          1975      0.8    6.3    0.9    2.0    0.9    618     10.8     1.27
Ron LeFlore         1980      0.1   11.0    0.3   -0.1   -0.5    611     10.7     0.99
Tim Raines Sr       1987     -0.5    7.2    0.3    2.5    0.9    567     10.4     1.17
Ray Durham          1998      1.2    2.0    1.8    3.6    1.8    611     10.4     1.37
Juan Pierre         2005      3.6    1.7   -0.3    2.5    2.9    665     10.4     1.43
Chone Figgins       2005      4.4    0.7    1.9    2.5    0.8    619     10.3     1.43
Marquis Grissom     1992     -0.3    6.5    2.1    0.1    1.8    567     10.2     1.19
Rickey Henderson    1984      0.9    2.4    2.1    3.9    0.9    599     10.2     1.31
Tim Raines Sr       1982      3.3    5.7   -0.2    1.2    0.1    626     10.1     1.25
Tim Raines Sr       1992      0.3    5.3    1.5    3.0    0.1    669     10.1     1.24
Al Wiggins          1983      0.3    4.1    0.9    0.4    4.4    582     10.0     1.29
Bert Campaneris     1969      1.3    5.8   -0.5    2.5    0.8    565      9.9     1.29
Kenny Lofton        1994      1.7    4.5   -1.1    3.4    1.4    574      9.9     1.23
Ron LeFlore         1978      2.3    5.2    0.6    2.3   -0.6    720      9.9     1.20
Chone Figgins       2006      2.1    0.8    1.6    4.9    0.4    577      9.9     1.48
Omar Moreno         1979      1.5    3.8    0.7    3.0    0.8    619      9.8     1.29
Scott Podsednik     2003      1.8    4.6    1.0    3.2   -0.6    542      9.8     1.34
Joe Morgan          1976      0.1    5.5    0.4    2.7    1.0    504      9.7     1.28
Tom Goodwin         2000      1.0    3.9    1.3    2.9    0.5    445      9.7     1.37
Milt Cuyler         1991      0.9    3.1    2.0    0.8    2.8    438      9.7     1.47
Davey Lopes         1976      0.6    7.3    0.5    1.7   -0.5    508      9.7     1.12
Willie Wilson       1984      1.7    5.1    2.1    0.8   -0.1    530      9.7     1.24
Tony Gwynn          1987      0.3    2.0    1.4    3.5    2.3    682      9.6     1.36
Luis Castillo       2007      1.0    0.6    1.1    3.1    3.8    528      9.6     1.51

As you can probably tell most of these top 50 are driven by high EqSBR scores with Maury Wills 1962 season at the top of the heap. There were a few players though, like Lonnie Smith in 1985 who excelled despite pedestrian work stealing bases. Related to that point you'll also notice that the final column we have a rate statistic titled EqBRRate. I explained the idea behind it in the column cited above.

...it turns out that when many folks talk about baserunning, they're not really thinking about discretionary stolen base attempts, but instead that combination of speed, risk taking, and judgment that goes into evaluating situations, and that when aggregated leads us to assert that a particular player is a good baserunner. Since EqSBR is primarily comprised of stolen base attempts (with a few pickoffs thrown in) our new rate statistic, which we'll christen Equivalent Baserunning Rate (EqBRRate), will omit this aspect.

So...we'll define EqBRRate as the ratio of actual or total runs to expected runs contributed across the four remaining metrics. Since both values for individual opportunities consider the context and are weighted appropriately (an EqOAR opportunity has both a lower expected and usually actual run value associated with it than an opportunity of EqHAR) and since we're eliminating EqSBR, both weaknesses discussed above addressed. To illustrate how this works, let's consider Chone Figgins' 2007 season:

Metric    Opps  TotRuns ExpRuns
EqOAR      314      0.1     1.2
EqGAR       31      3.2     2.6
EqAAR       44      5.7     4.7
EqHAR       53     10.1     5.6
           442     19.0    14.2

Taking the context of the opportunities into account, we would have expected Figgins to net +14.2 runs across the four metrics, but he actually contributed +19.0 runs. When we divide the total by the expected we get a ratio of 1.34, indicating that he contributed, or manufactured if you will, 34 percent more runs than expected.

So as you can see Smith's 1985 season actually comes out on top with a EqBRRate of 1.85 easily topping the 1986 season of Eric Davis at 1.55. The lowest rate out of the top 50 is Ron LeFlore's 1980 season where he was actually below 1.00 at 0.99 but made the top 50 by virtue of his 11.0 EqSBR.

And now the bottom 50...

Name                Year    EqGAR  EqSBR  EqAAR  EqHAR  EqOAR TotOpps   EqBRR EqBRRate
Carlos Delgado      2007     -0.4   -0.2   -2.9   -3.6   -0.4    394     -7.5     0.41
Jose Offerman       1992      0.5   -4.9   -1.3   -1.1   -0.7    505     -7.5     0.86
Eddie Murray        1990     -1.2   -4.2    0.2   -3.5    1.1    521     -7.5     0.82
Scott Cooper        1994      0.1   -2.3   -0.4   -5.2    0.3    306     -7.5     0.45
Rick Wilkins        1996     -0.4   -1.7   -1.3   -4.3    0.2    264     -7.6     0.41
Pat Burrell         2005     -0.5   -0.2   -0.7   -5.6   -0.7    368     -7.6     0.42
Randy Milligan      1991     -0.5   -3.7   -0.5   -2.1   -0.8    414     -7.6     0.67
Manny Trillo        1982     -0.1   -4.1   -1.9   -1.9    0.3    430     -7.6     0.72
Larry Sheets        1988     -0.7   -4.3   -0.8   -1.8   -0.2    286     -7.7     0.58
Bill Freehan        1971     -1.1   -3.1   -1.8   -1.7   -0.1    331     -7.8     0.43
Dave Parker         1977     -0.4   -6.4   -0.9    0.7   -0.8    531     -7.8     0.93
Jorge Posada        2007     -1.3   -0.1   -0.7   -4.2   -1.6    507     -7.8     0.59
Ted Simmons         1975     -1.5   -1.7    0.3   -4.8   -0.2    573     -7.9     0.72
Ed Bailey           1963      0.0   -3.9   -0.4   -3.3   -0.4    231     -7.9     0.35
Gene Richards       1982     -1.3   -4.8    0.0   -2.0    0.1    455     -8.0     0.81
Jim Thome           2004     -0.5   -1.4   -3.2   -3.2    0.3    436     -8.0     0.59
David Justice       1997     -0.7   -3.3   -0.3   -3.0   -0.7    398     -8.0     0.61
Dan Meyer           1977     -0.9   -2.0   -1.3   -4.6    0.7    409     -8.1     0.60
Jim Norris          1977     -0.1   -3.8    0.2   -2.9   -1.5    447     -8.1     0.73
Felix Jose          1991     -1.8   -3.5   -2.5    0.7   -1.0    482     -8.1     0.62
Lance Parrish       1979      0.0   -3.7   -2.6   -1.5   -0.4    361     -8.1     0.62
Steve Garvey        1980     -0.4   -5.5   -0.9   -0.8   -0.6    467     -8.1     0.78
Steve Henderson     1983      0.2   -7.5    0.6   -0.7   -0.8    362     -8.2     0.93
Carlos Delgado      2000     -0.6   -1.4   -1.4   -3.6   -1.1    618     -8.2     0.58
Al Oliver           1977     -0.1   -7.0   -0.2   -0.1   -0.8    474     -8.2     0.88
Tom Foley           1988     -0.1   -4.4   -0.4   -1.6   -1.7    279     -8.3     0.53
Dale Berra          1984      1.2   -2.8   -0.9   -5.2   -0.7    297     -8.4     0.57
Tommy McCraw        1972     -0.5   -5.9   -1.5   -0.5    0.0    299     -8.4     0.76
Joe Cunningham      1959     -0.8   -2.3    0.4   -5.3   -0.4    504     -8.5     0.60
Pete O'Brien        1984     -0.4   -3.1   -1.4   -2.9   -0.6    428     -8.5     0.52
Kenny Lofton        1997      0.4   -9.4   -0.1    0.6    0.0    539     -8.5     1.06
Frank Thomas        2000     -1.0   -1.6   -1.6   -3.4   -1.0    535     -8.6     0.47
Harold Reynolds     1988     -0.7   -7.8    1.0   -1.2    0.0    535     -8.7     0.95
Eddie Yost          1957      0.3   -5.4   -0.9   -2.8    0.0    394     -8.7     0.62
Joe Morgan          1980     -0.2   -2.0   -0.3   -6.5    0.3    434     -8.8     0.55
Clete Boyer         1970      0.6   -1.6   -0.2   -6.9   -0.8    307     -8.8     0.21
Ed Kranepool        1967     -0.8   -1.9   -0.1   -5.7   -0.4    323     -8.8     0.39
Mike Hargrove       1979     -1.8   -2.3   -0.2   -4.2   -0.5    522     -8.8     0.69
Jose Cruz           1977     -0.1   -8.3    0.5   -1.3    0.3    483     -8.9     0.95
Ernie Whitt         1989     -1.4   -1.0   -1.7   -4.0   -0.9    313     -9.0     0.34
Harmon Killebrew    1970     -0.8   -2.1   -0.7   -4.6   -1.0    435     -9.0     0.56
Tom Pagnozzi        1991     -1.5   -4.8   -0.7   -1.5   -0.8    391     -9.3     0.61
Bob Kearney         1984     -0.1   -2.6   -2.0   -3.8   -0.9    290     -9.4     0.29
Ryan Garko          2007     -1.0   -0.4    0.2   -7.7   -0.5    403     -9.4     0.32
Rod Carew           1982      0.1   -5.5   -0.2   -3.2   -0.7    558     -9.5     0.71
Tom Brunansky       1992     -0.6   -3.1   -1.8   -3.4   -0.7    373     -9.6     0.43
Todd Zeile          1997     -0.5   -4.8    0.0   -4.5   -0.4    484    -10.2     0.64
Mike Epstein        1971     -0.2   -2.5   -2.4   -4.4   -1.1    311    -10.6     0.38
Todd Zeile          1992     -0.7   -4.0   -1.1   -5.4    0.0    425    -11.2     0.52
Tony Bernazard      1984     -0.1   -6.9   -0.3   -3.4   -0.6    364    -11.2     0.62

There are some real "ice wagons" here (in the parlance of the dead ball era referring to poor baserunners) of course although many of these as well are here because they did so poorly in EqSBR (Tony Bernazard, Jose Cruz, and Kenny Lofton are three notable examples). The Indians Ryan Garko makes the list with his 2007 campaign primarily because he was thrown out trying to advance on hits five times - all at the plate - on his way to an historic -7.7 runs on EqHAR.

From a pure baserunning perspective Clete Boyer with his 1970 campaign ranks dead last at 0.21 with Bob Kearney in 1984 at 0.29 and Garko close behind. Lofton's 1997 season is the only one with a rate of 1.00 or higher at 1.06 but his EqSBR of -9.4 sinks him.