Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 6

Starting in the top of the eighth...

Final. Indians 4, Yankees 8.

Unimpressive. I haven't seen Robinson Cano play much this year but he's now looked poor on two plays. Such are the risks of small sample sizes since Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average have him at +23 in 2007 and Ultimate Zone Rating has him at +15, second in the American League behind Mark Ellis at +25. Derek Jeter, on the other hand, was last in the AL at -27 in UZR and at -6 at BP.

Tomorrow, Tomorrow. The Yankees don't replace Joba Chamberlain and he has a 21 pitch inning and gives up a run. For the two innings he throws 38 pitches. Wonder how that will impact tomorrow's game assuming this one ends with a Yankee victory especially not knowing what you're going to get with Mike Mussina as the probable starter tomorrow.

Guts. Chip Carey notes that Joe Borowski does it with location and "guts". I'm not sure but I think that means he doesn't have very good stuff. The graphic they showed of his ERA in save and non-save situations was interesting with his save era at around 3.70 and his non-save at over 9.00. The implication of course is that he's better under pressure but I do see from looking at his game logs that he took four losses in 15 non-save situation appearances. In only two other games did he come in with a big lead, pitch poorly and have his team still win.

Mariano Rivera finishes it off and we'll have baseball tomorrow night.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 5

Starting in the top of the sixth...

End of the seventh inning, Indians 3, Yankees 8.

Hard Stuff. Uneventful top of the sixth with Phil Hughes now mixing his pitches nicely. He threw all fastballs to Kenny Lofton in striking him out and 13 of his 18 pitches were fastballs.

Done. Like Bob Brenly, also surprised that Jake Westbrook is back out for the bottom of the sixth but that doesn't last long with A-Rod's second single of the night on a changeup. It was clear that Westbrook had lost the confidence in his sinker as he threw just two in five pitches to Rodriguez.

Strategic. I really liked the bunt by Doug Mientkiewicz in that situation with nobody out and runners on first and second. That's the situation where, if the idea is to score a single run, the break even value is the lowest it ever is for laying down a sacrifice bunt at under 80% for the general case. In this situation already up by two runs, a third run means raising the win expectancy by over 8%.

Busted It Open. The move pays off with the single from Robinson Cano and subsequent error by Trot Nixon in right field that plates three runs and lets Yankee fans breathe a little easier.

Joba Rules. Joba Chamberlain hits greater than 98 mph on three pitches to the first two batters and 99.2 on the first pitch to the third, but strikes out the first couple on sliders in the dirt. He tries the same thing to Travis Hafner but he gets it up and Hafner flies out to right field. After the fourth pitch to Hafner Chip Carey says that "last pitch broke a foot and a half". PITCHf/x had it's movement at 9.4 inches horizontally and 7.4 inches horizontally and thrown at 77 mph. Not a foot and a half but a huge break none the less. That said, I hope Brenly is wrong and they don't elect to use him for another inning. With a five-run lead it would seem to be prudent to save him for tomorrow.

Wow. Jensen Lewis looks impressive and had an excellent September in 10 games.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 4

Starting in the top of the fourth...

End of five innings, Indians 3, Yankees 5.

Tailing. Tony Gwynn mentioned that the fastball Phil Hughes threw to strike out Trot Nixon in the fourth was a good running fastball. Generally speaking Hughes' fastball rides more than it tails (I presume the definition of "running" likely includes both). On the season his fastball will typically record a vertical movement value of 12 or more inches, meaning that it comes in about two to three inches higher than a typical fastball thrown at that velocity. The tailing action on his fastball, however, is only in the range of one to three inches. In fact, that pitch referenced by Gwynn had a value of 1.3 inches according to PITCHf/x.

Consistency? Robinson Cano doesn't move his body and get in front of the ball and after scoring it a hit initially the call is changed to an error. The right call I think but terribly inconsistent given Jeter's gift in the first.

Curve. As noted by Bob Brenly Phil Hughes has established his curveball and threw it four of the first eight pitches in the fifth inning and then used it setup the fastball on the outside corner to Ryan Garko to end the top of the fifth. Nice.

Shift. Before Jason Giambi struck out in the bottom of the fifth I think Tony Gwynn was going to take Giambi to task for not attempting to beat the shift with his team desparately needing base runners. BIPChart says Giambi hits 75% of his grounders from the middle to the right side of the infield and the shift worked perfectly in his first at bat.

Getting the Ball Up. The three straight singles in the bottom of the fifth off of Jake Westbrook were all elevated sinkers at 2.2, 2.4, and 3.3 feet above the ground. Not mentioned but two very nice plays by Kenny Lofton to hold Hideki Matsui at third and to charge the single by Melky Cabrera and hit the cutoff man.

See Above. As was the homerun Johnny Damon hit to give the Yankees at 5-3 lead. That pitch was thrown at 91.7 mph and came in at 3.4 feet above the ground and was also about 2 inches towards the left-handed batter's box. Can the relievers get ready any faster? As a result, Derek Jeter sees only one sinker out of five pitches and now Westbrook is trying to adjust by working his curveball and slider. Maybe a little too late.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 3

Continuing in the top of the third as Phil Hughes enters the game...

End of the third inning. Indians 3, Yankees 1.

Wild Pitch. Jorge Posada has no chance on that pitch from Hughes and it hit so far in the front of the plate that moving over into a blocking position likely wouldn't have helped. Of course as has been their luck it immediately costs them on Jhonny Peralta's double to right.

Sweeps. This is looking like the first time all four division series will end in sweeps. In fact this is the first time there have been as many as three sweeps. The two game sweeps

In 2006 Oakland swept Minnesota and the Mets swept the Dodgers.
In 2005 the White Sox swept the Red Sox and the Cardinals swept the Padres (despite my prediction to the contrary).
In 2000 the Mariners swept the White Sox and St. Louis swept Atlanta.
In 1998 the Yankees swept the Rangers and Cubs were swept by the Braves.
In 1997 Florida swept San Francisco and Atlanta swept Houston.
And finally, in 1995 the Indians swept Boston and the Reds swept the Dodgers.

DPs. As with Livan Hernandez last night, Jake Westbrook has been able to get out of trouble courtesy of the double play via his sinker. At one point, as reported by Nate Silver, 12 of 24 Cubs hitters had reached base and yet they were unable to break it open. And so with their defeat, 2008 will be the 100th year of the rebuilding effort.

Mistake. Terrible play by Victor Martinez in throwing to third with a three-run lead. Nice slide by Hideki Matsui to get his hand in there. And another good sinker from Westbrook to get the ground ball. He's throwing his sinker consistently between 91.5 and 92.5 mph. However, the one he threw to Johnny Damon stays up and he scoots it through the right side.

And another DP on another sinker, this one at 1.99 feet from the ground.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 2

Starting at the top of the second...

Top of the third. Indians 2 Yankees 0 - pitching change.

Oops. Did I say Clemens' location was good? Trot Nixon hits an 86 mph splitter that doesn't sink or a slider that just spins and ends up thigh high on the inner half (PITCHf/x had it an inch and half towads the left-handed box). Grady Sizemore hits almost the identical pitch albeit a few inches lower for a single to right. The splitter is looking better in the at bat to Asdrubal Cabrera even though he was able to lay off the two best pitches.

A-Rod. 0 for his last 18 in the postseason and Alex Rodriguez just misses a 3-1 fastball in the zone before hitting a solid single to left on a 92.5 mph fastball. Maybe the buzzards will move off for a few innings at least.

Turbo sinker! The first "turbo sinker" reference belongs to Bob Brenly in reference to Fausto Carmona in the bottom of the second.

Laying off. Chip Carey and Tony Gwynn agree that Indians hitters are laying off the split fingered fastball and he's taking longer between pitches now and doesn't look good. This won't last long.

Done. Clemens is done after throwing fewer than 60 pitches. Is this the last time we see him on the mound? Lord I hope so. I'd hate to see another round of "where will Roger go" this offseason. Enough is enough and maybe this will convince him to hang it up content with the fact that he was arguably the greatest pitcher of all time.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 1

Hoping that this game is more interesting than the Red Sox/Angels, I thought I'd blog a little during the game. I'll try to do an inning or two at a time for as long as I can.

Indians 1, Yankees 0 end of one inning.

Derek Jeter throws wild in the top of the first. A hit? Are you kidding? Yet another example of how scoring has been construed to the advantage of the fielder to a ridiculous degree in recent years. In a recent column noting the Rockies breaking of the all-time fielding percentage record, I talked about the increase in fielding percentage and how that records an increasing level of excellence in play. While I think the general trend still holds there is no doubt that fielders have a larger margin for error today than they did say 20 years ago.

Clemens. 27 pitches in the top of the first. He topped out at 93.2 mph in his first pitch to Asdrubal Cabrera. His location hasn't been bad other than the single hit by Ryan Garko on a 91.4 mph fastball that was right down the middle.

Jake Westbrook struggled a bit in September (60 baserunners in 37 innings) but in the first inning all three balls that were hit were down in the strike zone (2.2, 1.9, and 1.8 feet off the ground. Good news for a guy that relies on his sinker and as Bob Brenly said, throws his fastball 80% of the time on first pitches.

Torre's Job. So the boss says Joe Torre needs to win to keep his job. It seems like we've heard this before although it seems this is a little more serious.

Rocktober Rocks On!

I was wrong.

As September dawned more and more co-workers, acquaintances, and family members posed the question to me as to whether the Rockies would make the playoffs. Being the realistic analyst type guy I am I assured them that given the unbalanced schedule and the number of teams that the Rockies would have to jump over, that it was virtually impossible. Even as September 15th dawned I distinctly recall a co-worker cornering me in the break room and with a hopeful expression, asking whether the Rockies could still pull it off. I said something about them having to win 10 of 11 or 11 of 12 just to have a shot while knowing that wasn't going to happen and feeling good about myself for letting him down easy.

As Nate Silver has written, when the Rockies stood at 77-72 their odds of reaching the playoffs using BP's post season odds report was in fact 1.82% or 54:1. That marked the third most unlikely comeback with 20 or fewer games to play in history behind only the 1964 Cardinals (1.26% with 13 games to play) and the 1934 Cardinals (1.16% with 15 to play). He also points out that their odds were at 1.46% when their record stood at 18-27 on May 21st and was only 4.4% after their loss to the Diamondbacks on September 28th (I wrote a retrospective on the Rockies season at BP you might want to check out). In fact, Silver notes that what's so impressive about the Rockies season is that "they were never, not for one day, greater than even-money to make the playoffs until they actually did."

In accord with that simulation, from a historical perspective, through 2006 there were 988 teams that found themselves with an 18-27 record or worse at some point in the season and only 13 of those (1.3%) had reached postseason play.

So given the long odds and history I don't feel too bad about trying to be realistic but next time I'll be a little more humble.



With all that in mind I headed to Coors Field as a fan to take in only the third home playoff game in Rockies history and the first postseason game I had ever attended. I arrived early and stood in line with the faithful outside of gate A waiting for the gates to open two hours prior to game time. It had been a warm and windy day in Denver and was still over 75 degrees with warms winds from the south west as we made our way into the ballpark.


The Phillies were on the field taking batting practice and so I made my way into the left field stands to watch the mad rush for homerun balls. With the wind gusting out to left center Jayson Werth put on a show hitting several balls onto the concourse and showing the fans in straight-away left with souvenirs. The Phillies starters including Cole Hamels had fun with the fans, teasing them by pretending to throw balls into the stands before actually giving them away. In one kind of funny scene several of them started to imitate the motion of throwing a pitch left-handed and then slamming their glove on the ground and I couldn't help thinking that they were reenacting Ted Lilly's reaction in game two against the Diamondbacks after he gave up a homerun to Chris Young in the second inning. During all of this a young boy standing a few feet from me, who was sporting a glove, got hit with a ball in the head and was rewarded for his lack of attention with another ball from a Phillies pitcher before being checked out by the medical staff.


Being in the vicinity I had to snap this picture of the row of seats behind the left field fence to provide some perspective on the ball that Garrett Atkins hit in the one-game playoff that likely hit one of the chairs and bounced back onto the field. Although it happened at an inopportune time from the Rockies perspective a ricochet like that is not unheard of and I believe it was the second or third time a homerun was in question this season.


In any case, after standing in a really long line for patty melt and a Coke I headed up to my seat in the mezzanine level of the right field stands to enjoy the pregame activities which included the introductions, the releasing of balloons, and the national anthem. While in line for the Coke I was reminded of how some "fans" have little actual knowledge of the game. One of the two men behind me turned to the other and expressed surprise that the Rockies had to win just one series in order to be in "the semifinals" while the other assured him that in baseball, unlike some other sports, teams are rewarded for their regular season record.


Shortly after I took my seat three or four loud and obnoxious Phillies fans ensconced themselves directly behind me. While at first they were rooting for their team, things quickly turned ugly in the second inning and the guy sitting next to me got into an altercation with one of them resulting in a shove. Predictably the police arrived in our section shortly thereafter and escorted one of the Philly faithful away. However, the Phils fan returned an inning later and all seemed to be squared away as the guy next to me bought him a beer (not a good idea as it turned out).

In the meantime the game had started and Ubaldo Jimenez had his electric stuff. In the midst of giving up a walk and hit in the top of the first he struck out the side. The last strikeout of Aaron Rowand consisted of three sliders thrown 86.4, 86.4 and 87.1 mph as shown below.



In the top of the second, after the first pitch to Chase Utley all of the banks of stadium lights went dark. The scoreboard was still operational and so there was plenty of light to see by. All told it took 14 minutes for the "computer glitch" to be resolved and the lights to fully come back on and play to resume.

Jimenez would work six and a third innings, give up three hits and four walks. His fastest pitch of the night was recorded at 98.3 miles per hour to Ryan Howard in the first inning, a pitch Howard was jammed on but would fight off for a bloop single to right. PITCHf/x recorded 95 of his pitches, 57 fastballs averaging 94.5 mph, five changeups averaging 85 mph, 15 curveballs at 73.5 mph, and 18 sliders at 84.9 mph. His only mistake was an 82 mile per hour changeup (correction: Yorvit Torrealba says it was a slider which points out the difficulty in pitch classification on occasion using PITCHf/x) he left out and over the plate to Shane Victorino (shown below from the hitter's perspective) with one out in the top of the seventh. Victorino got ahold of it and hit it into the right field stands just below the section in which I was sitting.



The weather was also a factor as about 10 minutes before game time the wind shifted, now blowing in from left-center, with a distinct chill in the air. Although the game time temperature was reported at 73 degrees, by game time it was probably already in the mid 60s and dropping. In the bottom of the second (by then 56 degrees with the wind howling) Atkins got a hold of a Jamie Moyer curveball that was down and in and lifted a high fly to left field. Forty-five minutes earlier, or even on a typical night, that ball would have been several rows deep in the stands. As it was Pat Burrell was able to catch it on the warning track. From there the temps dropped and the wind continued to gust from 15 to 20 miles per hour through most of the first five innings or so. Later in the game the winds died down and temps stabilized.

Throughout the game the Phils fans behind me kept up their cheering but things turned uglier in the seventh. Having obviously had too much beer and prodded on by some obnoxious Rockies rooters sitting somewhere behind them throwing peanut shells, more words were exchanged complete with foul-mouthed name calling. Once again the police were summoned and this time two of the Phils fans were escorted out not to return. As if this weren't enough there was an additional flare up and the final fan (a woman no less who I would expect would be more civilized) was also escorted out. Having cleansed the section, the Rockies fans seem somewhat pleased and the remainder of the game was uneventful from that perspective.

It's a shame that the family sitting behind me with two boys aged four or five had to endure this silliness. As all of this unfolded I remembered just why it was that I stopped sitting in the outfield stands at Kauffman Stadium with my daughters in tow. It almost never fails that one or more fans ruins the experience through excess drinking. It's not politically correct but in my experience that kind of behavior is rare in the more expensive seats and it's worth it to me to pay $10 or $15 extra bucks to have a positive family experience.

This too reminded me of the only game I ever attended at old Tiger Stadium. It was in the early 1980s with the White Sox in town and my brother and father and me sat in the left field stands. The liquored-up fans in the center field bleachers had quite a time hitting beach balls, throwing food and beer, and trying to pelt White Sox centerfield Rudy Law with objects forcing him to run into the dugout and emerge with a batting helmet. After several fights the police were called and ended up arresting quite a number of people. Our family was on vacation and I recall my mother feigning concern when we returned to the hotel that we weren't some of the many being held in the clink.

Of course, the crucial moments of a game that was tense from start to finish occurred in the bottom of the eighth when with two outs Atkins singled on a line drive to left field and Brad Hawpe hit a ball between Howard and Chase Utley, which Utley knocked down, but that scooted away for a hit sending Atkins to third. Both hits were off LOOGY J.C. Romero and after a conference on the mound, surprisingly Charlie Manual chose to stick with the lefty against pinch hitter Jeff Baker when he had righty Brett Myers in the pen. Seemingly, Myers was the obvious choice given Baker's .205/.267/.289 line against right-handers as opposed to .246/.333/.426 against southpaws. But Manuel didn't make the move and with the white towels given out before the game waving madly, Baker hit a 91.5 mph fastball through the hole between first and second to deliver the biggest hit in Rockies history.

Despite Clint Hurdle using Brian Fuentes, in my opinion needlessly on Thursday afternoon, he came in and pitched a perfect eighth inning striking out Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell before Manny Corpas came on and closed the game in the ninth.


When Victorino grounded to Kaz Matsui (whose triple past Burrell on a Moyer curveball in the fifth inning plated the first run) for the final out pandemonium is the only way to describe it. Fireworks, chanting, and high-fives all around went on for quite some time with several players emerging from the clubhouse to shower the fans with champagne. After about 30 minutes I slipped out with the celebration still in full swing and headed home. A well-played game, an exciting game, and a night to remember for Rockies fans. As for me, besides being at Wrigley Field for a clinching game (alas I heard the listened to the end of the sweep completed just before game time on the radio I brought), I can't think of any better outcome for my first postseason experience.

A Little More PITCHf/x

Here's are a couple more PITCHf/x articles:

Joe P. Sheehan uses a similar format to the one I introduced in order to look at Jake Peavy.

MLB.com discusses the uses and technology behind the system.

Division Series Odds

With the division series set to kick off within the hour I thought I'd post the odds for each of the eight teams as calculated by a little simulator I wrote. The program takes into consideration the home and road records of each team, home field advantage, and the series format. It simulates each series 100,000 times.

NLDS Rockies vs. Phillies
Philles win 54.4%
Rockies win 45.6%

The simulator has the Phillies sweeping 15% of the time with Rockies doing so just 8.5%. It also says the series has a 38% chance of going the distance with the Phillies winning 61% of those contests.

NLDS Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks win 59.3%
Cubs win 40.7%

The simulator likes the D'Backs odds more than any other team in the first round primarily because of their excellent home record (50-31) and the Cubs problems on the road (41-40) coupled with the home field advantage.

ALDS Yankees vs. Indians
Indians win 54.5%
Yankees win 45.5%

Both teams have exceptional records at home (52-29) and the Indians were slightly better on the road. Adding in the home field advantage the simulator likes the Tribe.

ALDS Angels vs. Red Sox
Red Sox win 58.3%
Angels win 41.7%

The Angels poor showing (40-41) on the road coupled with the Sox winning ways at home (51-30) are enough to push the advantage squarely into the BoSox camp.

Cubs and Rockies Play On

I've been so busy being a fan the last week I've had little time to put on my analyst hat. With the Cubs looking so strong at the beginning of last week, being swept by the Marlins, and then rebounding against the Reds to clinch the division on Friday night there's been some ups and downs to say the least. They're now getting set to take on the Diamondbacks starting Wednesday with Carlos Zambrano on the hill against Brandon Webb. And then when you add the excitement of the Rockies improbable 13-1 finish to tie the Padres and force today's one game playoff, hopefully you'll forgive the lack of content here during the season's waning days.

I worked Saturday night's game for MLB.com at Coors Field and you could feel the tension in the press box as the Padres held a 3-2 lead in the ninth inning at Milwaukee just minutes before game time. Once Tony Gwynn Jr. hit the triple to tie it, however, the tension was lifted and was completely obliterated when the Rockies jumped all over the Diamondbacks in the first inning on their way to an 11-1 win.

On the Rockies and tonight's game, Nate Silver has a nice piece on SI.com about today's game and predicts a 5-3 win for the Pads behind Jake Peavy. Although Josh Fogg has thrown pretty well in September (6 2/3 of scoreless baseball against the Dodgers on the 9/26 and a 3.25 ERA for the month) I still think I'd rather see Franklin Morales take the ball (2.88 ERA in September with 16 hits given up in 25 innings with 20 Ks against just 6 walks). In any case my hope is that Clint Hurdle is ready for the early hook and doesn't endure one of Fogg's Funks where he suddenly loses the strike zone. Although the Rockies are playing at home where they've been excellent (50-31), facing Peavy on normal rest will be a tough task to say the least. In his two previous outings against the Rockies this season at Petco he's thrown 14 innings and given up 2 runs on 8 hits. For that reason I too would have to pick the Padres if I were betting but confidence can do wonders. That confidence is based not only on the fabulous finish but also on the fact that since May 22nd the Rockies have been the best team in the National League with a 71-46 record (the Yankees went 74-45).

Taking a longer term historical view, tonight's game will mark the twelfth time (including three Wild Card races) in big league history that the season has been extended past the 154 or 162 game schedule. All but the 1915 Federal League season, in which there was no provision in place for playing a tie-breaker, resulted in a playoff. In the NL a three-game playoff was the rule beginning with the 1946 playoff between the Dodgers and Cardinals and ending with the advent of divisional play in 1969. In AL a one-game playoff decided things beginning with the 1948 race. Without further ado, here is the chronological list of the regular season playoffs that decided the affair.

1946 NL – the Cardinals beat the Dodgers 4-2 in St. Louis and 8-4 in Brooklyn getting solid pitching from Howie Pollet and Murry Dickson

1948 AL – the Indians playing at Fenway Park beat the Red Sox 8-3 behind rookie hurler Gene Bearden.

1951 NL – the Dodgers inexplicably elect to play two games on the road and wind up on the wrong side of a miracle.

1959 NL – the Dodgers, having moved west, beat Milwaukee in a pair of one-run games 3-2 and 6-5 in 12 innings.

1962 NL – the Dodgers drop 6 of their final 7 to force the playoff and then lead 4-2 in the 9th inning of game 3 before 4 walks, 2 hits, a wild pitch, and an error seal the 6-4 victory for the Giants.

1978 AL – the Yankees furious comeback culminates in a 5-4 playoff win at Fenway on the strength of homeruns by Reggie Jackson and Bucky Dent.

1980 NL West – after being tied for 6 straight days in September it was only fitting that the season should come down to one game at Dodger Stadium which the Astros win 7-1 behind Joe Niekro.

1995 AL Wild Card – Seattle comes from 7.5 games back on September 1st to force a playoff with the Angels in the Kingdome which they win 9-1 behind Randy Johnson

1998 NL Wild Card - the Giants win 6 of their final 7 while the Sosa-powered Cubs struggle and so the two face off at Wrigley Field where the Cubs win 5-3 behind Steve Trachsel

1999 NL Wild Card – the slumping Mets sweep the season’s final series against the Pirates to force a playoff with the Reds who won 19 games in September. The Mets prevail 5-0 on the strength of a two-hit shutout by Al Leiter.

A Pie and Fish

Today in my column on Baseball Prospectus I answered a couple reader questions in relation to topics from previous weeks. The first question revolved around the repeatability of the baserunning metrics I've developed while the second looked at the Fish, Eye, Square, and Badball metrics using PITCHf/x data from the pitcher's rather than the hitter's perspective. Enjoy.

Incremental Advancement

My column this morning on Baseball Prospectus introduces a fifth baserunning metric to add to the list I discussed last summer. This one was inspired by Bill James' look at baserunning in last year's Bill James Handbook. Specifically the new metric dubbed Equivalent Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR) looks at wild pitches, passed balls, balks, and plays designated as "out advancing".

The methodology is at its core the same as the other metrics in that it is based on run expectancy matrices and is based not only on the change in run expectancy created by these events but also the number and context of the opportunities the runners have.

In the end it appears from my initial look that the normal seasonal range for individual players is +2.5 runs to -2.0 runs. In other words, a runner who not only doesn't get thrown out but ends up with more advancements per time on base (the assumption being that in the long run all runners have approximately equal opportunities to advance) will contribute two and half runs over and above what would have been expected.

As a small preview here are the leaders and trailers for the past two seasons.

Player              Year   Adv  AdvOpps   Opps    EqOAR
Juan Pierre         2005    15      15     438     2.93
Angel Berroa        2005    10      10     306     2.65
Tony Graffanino     2005    13      13     309     2.61
Mark Teahen         2005    12      12     247     2.03
Terrence Long       2005     7       7     236     1.99
----------------------------------------------------------
Brent Abernathy     2005     0       1      29    -1.19
Tadahito Iguchi     2005     6       8     300    -1.24
Ben Broussard       2005     0       1     208    -1.38
Michael Cuddyer     2005     4       5     236    -1.53
Michael Young       2005     1       2     404    -1.64

Player              Year   Adv  AdvOpps   Opps    EqOAR
Freddy Sanchez      2006    15      15     383     2.14
Damian Jackson      2006     5       5      61     1.94
Grady Sizemore      2006    16      17     466     1.94
Alex Gonzalez       2006     5       5     199     1.80
Orlando Hudson      2006     9       9     321     1.70
----------------------------------------------------------
Sean Casey          2006     1       2     229    -1.31
Matt Holliday       2006     6       7     334    -1.35
Josh Barfield       2006     2       3     313    -1.40
Eric Chavez         2006     2       3     265    -1.67
Nick Johnson        2006     6      10     388    -1.76

Overall, there is little year to correlation on an individual basis although a definite pattern emerges when totals are aggregated over multiple years and at seven years (2000-2006) Juan Pierre emerges as the leader (+6.12 runs) while Paul Konerko brings up the rear (-4.81 runs).

More Fish/Eye

My column this week on Baseball Prospectus included a return of the Fish/Eye chart I built to illustrate the continuum of plate discipline. I've added a new metric this time called Square which tracks the percentage of pitches in the strike zone swung at and made contact with. A high value here (relative to the average of over 87 percent) indicates that when the batter offers at a strike he usually makes contact. On the contrary, a lower value indicates hitters who, for reasons such as a long swing, are more apt to swing through strikes. In any case, I also relate this metrics to Wily Mo Pena and my discussion from a previous column.

Several readers have alerted me to the fact that the group charts I showed cut a few players off at the edges. New charts coming soon...

Update: I posted new charts and some additional information about performance by quadrant on BP's Unfiltered blog.

Gameday Video

There is a very nice video that explains a bit about the PITCHf/x system over on the Gameday blog. In other PITCHf/x news Joe P. Sheehan has another nice article on sinkers over at Baseball Analysts and tomorrow my column will take another look at plate discipline. And of course anyone interested in this topic should be keeping up with Mike Fast and the work he's doing over on his blog. In particualr he beats me to the punch and uses the approximations given by Dr. Nathan to start calculating spin direction and spin rate. Very cool.

Rox Use 10

Last Friday night I scored the Rockies/Padres game at Coors Field for MLB.com and was "treated" to the site of manager Clint Hurdle using ten different pitchers in a nine inning Rockies win. That effort set the National League record and tied the major league record first set by the Orioles on September 12, 2004 versus the Yankees.

Below is my score sheet for the game with the plethora of pitchers (click for a larger view)...

Wily Mo Redux

My column this week on Baseball Prospectus takes a second look at the fortunes of Nates outfielder Wily Mo Pena. I had written about Pena back in March of 2006 and readers had been asking for an update. Wily Mo fans might not like what they read.

Integration, Ruth, and Cobb

In relation to my column last week on measuring the increasing level of play, Cyril Morong alerted me to this post on Beyond the Boxscore that attempts to quantify the affects of integration. The method he uses centers on replacing a certain percentage of the worst players in the pre-integration era (1906-1946) with better players as the pool from which players were drawn was increased thereby pushing out the worst performers.

The end result is Ruth with 678 homeruns and Cobb with a batting average around .354 although it should be noted that this assumes that integration was a given from the start and did not ramp up slowly.

Enough Said

My daughters and I attended the last Sky Sox home game of the year last Sunday afternoon at Security Service Field. A great day highlighted by the return to the ballpark of Sox executive Rai Henniger who was injured in a fireworks accident in May.

The picture shows how nice a day it was...

The Majestic Mangonel

So last night my wife discovers that on Tuesday my 6th grade daughter is to have created a catapult or trebuchet for science class, much to my surprise.

Although there weren't many parameters other than that it had to fire a golf ball into a newspaper wall and be about 2 feet tall, we Googled a little to see what we were up against. What we discovered was that there are a few sites that sell plans and a few others that show photos and so we worked from there. In the end we decided to base our catapult on a design called the Mangonel (from the Greek word "magganon" meaning an engine of war) which was descended from the Roman onager (Greek for "wild ass" nicknamed as such because it kicked like a mule when discharged).

In any case we spent about an hour last night planning and then three and half more this morning completing the project and thought we should provide some instructions for those like us who might need to do something similar in the future.

In order to provide the force the mangonel relies on torsion from a twisted cord in which the arm is inserted. We decided to use one of those black rubber straps used to fasten items to a car carrier. We replaced the metal hook with a small drill bit and threaded the bit through both ends of the strap creating a loop.

For the base we used some 3.5" by .5" boards and cut two of them 24" in length. We then drilled a 1 1/8" hole 10" from one end in both boards. After measuring the length of the strap when pulled taught we cut two more boards 16.25" in length. After screwing them all together we had our frame.

When the arm is released it's stopped by a pad and so we simply put one more board on top and fastened another 13" board in the center and used a rubber band to secure a bit of foam to the top.

Finally, we added two boards to the bottom so it would sit up a little along with cardboard wheels to give it that historical touch.

To load the catapult we ran the strap through one of the holes pulling it taught at the end with the drill bit. It took a little force but together we were able to pull the loop end through the other hole and slide a stick of sun block in it. Now the strap (or skein in the technical sense) is pretty tight. From there we slid the arm, which was a wood strip about 1.5" wide and cut to 18", into the middle of the strap at the center. By twisting the drill bit on one side and the stick of sun block on the other you can then create the tension in the strap. After about 8 turns we found the sun block would start turn back so we added a small piece of wood to the top that can be turned to stop it from twisting backwards. At this point the arm wants to swing forward and so we put two nails in the board on which the arm rests and a rubber band between them to hold it down and act as the trigger.

On the arm itself we created a small cardboard cup in which the golf ball rests and used duct tape to secure it.

All that's left is to load the golf ball and fire by releasing the rubber band and the arm swings up and releases the ball as it hits the padded board. It doesn't fire as hard as I had imagined and ends up propelling the ball about five feet on a line. Of course, the more you twist the strap the more force you get.

The Stretch Run

If you're a Cubs fan life is pretty good. Despite a 6-1 loss to the Astros last night, as we head into September the team is in first place in the central division and although the Cardinals have looked stronger in the past month, little about the Redbirds or the Brewers is particularly scary. In addition Alfonso Soriano is back from the DL, Cliff Floyd from the berevement list and both Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee, who together have supplied much of the offense, are apparently healthy and on the field. Carlos Marmol continues to mow down opposing hitters and Rich Hill and Carlos Zambrano continue to be mostly effective.

So in celebration of entering the final month in first here is the complete list of other occasions on which the Cubs found themselves tied or in first at the close of September 1st along with their record on that day and a comment on each season.

Year      W    L    T     Pct   Comments
1989     75   59    0   0.560   Win the division and then dispatched by Will Clark
1984     81   54    0   0.600   Win the division and then …
1945     76   47    1   0.618   Lose to the Tigers in a 7-game WS
1929     84   41    4   0.672   Win 98 games but lose to the A's 4-1 in the WS
1918     83   44    2   0.654   Lose to Ruth's Red Sox in the WS
1914     63   57    2   0.525   Fade to 78-76, 16.5 games behind the Miracle in 4th place
1912     79   43    1   0.648   Finish 91-59 but finish 11.5 games behind the Giants in 3rd place
1909     80   38    1   0.678   Win 104 games but Wagner's Pirates win 110
1907     89   33    1   0.730   Win 107 and beat the Tigers in the series
1906     92   31    3   0.748   116 wins but lose in the WS 4-2 to the White Sox
1904     69   46    3   0.600   Go 93-60 but finish 13 games behind the Giants

Yes, just twice in my lifetime has it been the case that the Cubs weren't looking uphill or in many cases up a sheef cliff face as the calendar turned. In fact, this season marks just the 20th time the Cubs have had a .500 record or better on September 1st since 1945 and the fourth time this decade. So while there is always a feeling of impending doom in the soul of a Cubs fan, today is a good day and we'll leave it at that.