Denver Bears - New York Yankees Reunion

All baseball fans in the Denver area and beyond will want to check out the Denver Bears - New York Yankees Reunion being held May 3 at the Denver Athletic Club in downtown Denver sponsored by the Rocky Mountain chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research.

Former Bears/Yankees who will be on hand include Don Larsen, Ryne Duren, Herb Plews, Johnny Blanchard, Ralph Terry and Woodie Held.

The event will run from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. and will kick off at 10 a.m. with a player panel moderated by Denver radio host Irv Brown. The panel will be followed by a gourmet lunch with the players and after lunch the players will be available to sign autographs and continue the discussion. Participants will also have an opportunity to buy discounted tickets to that night's 6:05 p.m. game with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

You can reserve your spot at the event online ($75 for SABR members and $85 for non-members) or download and print the registration form from RM SABR's web site.

Here are a few notes provided by RM SABR on those who will be in attendance:

Woodie Held – Infielder – 14-year major league career. He played with the New York Yankees in 1954 and 1957. Before the era of home run hitting shortstops Woodie hit 20 home runs in his 1957 rookie year. He averaged 21 homers per year from 1959 – 1964.

In addition to his hitting skills, Woodie was a dominating defensive infielder with the Indians, averaging 136 games per season, between 1959 and 1962.

Don Larsen – Pitcher – 14-year major league career. He compiled an 81-91 major league pitching record with a 3.78 ERA and was a Yankee from 1955 to 1959. Larsen had a 9-1 record with the Denver Bears in 1955.

He is best known for pitching the only perfect game in World Series history in Game Five of the 1956 series. Using a no-windup delivery, Larsen used only 97 pitches to dispatch the mighty Brooklyn Dodgers in one of the most famous games in baseball history.In 1956 and 1957 Larsen won a total of 21 games while losing only 9 and finished his career with a 4-2 record in World Series play.

While pitching for the San Francisco Giants in the 1962 World Series, he defeated his former Yankee teammates on October 8 – which ironically was the sixth anniversary of his perfect game.

Ryne Duren – Pitcher – 10-year major league career. He pitched for the New York Yankees from 1958 to 1961. He pitched first no hitter in Denver Bears history.

As the most feared relief pitcher in baseball in the late 1950s, Duren led AL in saves – 20 in 44 appearances – in his first full rookie year in 1958. He was the hero of Game Six of the 1958 World Series, stopping a rally by the World Champion Milwaukee Braves in the late innings.As a bullpen specialist in 1959 he went 36 consecutive innings without allowing a run. From 1958 through 1959 he fanned 183 AL batters in 151 innings.

Pitching for the Los Angeles Angels in 1961, Duren set a major league record by striking out seven consecutive batters on June 7.

Johnny Blanchard – Catcher/outfielder – 8-year major league career. Johnny was on the New York Yankees roster in 1955 and 1959-1965.

While sharing catching duties with All-Stars Yogi Berra and Elston Howard, Johnny took full advantage of his opportunities. Between 1961 and 1963 he hit 50 home runs in only 707 at bats.In 1961 only one major league catcher (Yogi Berra, 22) hit more home runs than Johnny’s 21. Berra came to the plate 395 times while Johnny had 243 at bats.

At one time Blanchard held the record for most World Series pinch-hitting appearances (9) and pinch hits (3).

Ralph Terry – Pitcher – 12-year major league career. Ralph pitched for the Yankees 1956-1957 and 1959-1964.

Ralph was a workhorse for New York between 1960 and 1963, winning 66 games and logging nearly 921 innings.He led the American League in 1962 in wins (23), games started (39), and innings pitched (298). In 1963 he started the most games in the AL (37) and tied for most complete games (18).Ralph finished his career with 107 wins and a lifetime ERA of 3.62.

In the 1960 World Series, Ralph gave up the home run to Bill Mazeroski that gave the Pittsburgh Pirates the championship. In the 1962 World Series he led the Yankees to the title by beating the Giants twice (including a Game Seven, four-hit shutout) and posting a 1.80 ERA.

Herb Plews – Infielder – 4-year major league career with the Washington Senators and Boston Red Sox.

A sure-handed defensive player, Plews tied an existing Major League record when he participated in five double plays while manning second base for the Senators on September 26, 1958. Plews, who would now be labeled a super-utility infielder, hit well in his first two major league seasons, averaging .270, while playing second, third and shortstop.

Norm Siebern – Outfield - Had a twelve-year major league career with six teams. He played with the Yankees in 1956, 1958 and 1959. In his major league career, Norm hit .272 with 132 home runs. He was a three-time All Star and also won a Gold Glove.

Norm signed with the New York Yankees in 1951, and made it to the majors before he was 23 years old. In 1956, Norm suffered a knee injury that caused him to miss much of the season. The next year, he starred in the minor leagues at Denver and was chosen by the Sporting News as their Minor League Player of the Year. He was a regular in the majors from 1958 to 1966. In his first full season with the Yankees, in 1958, he hit .300 with a .388 on-base percentage.

After the 1959 season, Norm was traded to the Kansas City Athletics along with Hank Bauer, Don Larsen, and Marv Throneberry in the trade that brought Roger Maris to the Yankees. Norm spent four seasons with the A’s, hitting a peak in 1962 with numbers of .308/.412/.495 and 117 RBI.

After the 1963 season, he was traded to the Baltimore Orioles for Jim Gentile. In 1964, his average dipped to .245, but he had 106 walks and thus still was able to score 92 runs. In 1966, he was on the California Angels, and although he hit .247, he drew enough walks that he was close to leading the team in OBP. He finished out his career in 1967 and 1968 with the San Francisco Giants and the Boston Red Sox.

An 8-Letter Word for the Ultimate Sport

Amen.

I particularly love this part:

For you who wasted the winter by not studying such stuff, the answers are below. The rest of you probably are SABRmetricians. Tim Kurkjian of ESPN (do you know that more than 10 American children have been named Espn?) recalls a convention of the Society for American Baseball Research:

"'Who from SABR might know where I can find the all-time list of pinch-hit, extra-inning grand slams?' I asked the very first man I saw at the convention. The man smiled and -- I am not making this up -- pulled the list from his breast pocket. 'I have it right here,' he said."

Baseball Research Journal vol 36

As talked about in a previous post the Baseball Research Journal volume 36 containing the article by Neal Williams and myself on quantifying third base coaches is now available.

One of the articles you may want to check out is "An Analysis of the Gyroball" by Alan Nathan and David Baldwin wherein they do an analysis similar to the one I did back in July in my Schrodinger's Bat column (no subscription required).

For those who are not SABR members copies of the Baseball Research Journal 2007 can be ordered from the University of Nebraska Press, 1-800-755-1105 (U.S. Orders), or http://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu.

The Traffic Directors Addendum

By now SABR members should have received their copies of volume 36 of The Baseball Research Journal. For me receiving the journal in large part pays for the cost of the SABR membership as there are always more than a few interesting articles to peruse. Although I haven't read the entire journal yet the articles on strategy in Japanese baseball (titled "The Evolution of Japanese Baseball Strategy") by Robert K. Fitch and "A Manifesto for Defensive Baseball Statistics" by Dr. Jon Bruschke certainly caught my eye.

This year, however, I have another reason to be interested with the inclusion of an article by Neal Williams and me titled "The Traffic Directors". Some readers will be familiar with this topic since an online version of the article appeared in two parts last spring over on Rich Lederer's Baseball Analysts site. And so if you don't get the journal you can read about the methodology there.

In presenting the article to a group of SABRites here in Colorado a few weeks ago I went back and took a look 2007 data and at the rest of the data set that Neal had collected in response to a few questions by those assembled.

First, let's take a look at the 2007 third base coaches ordered by ratio.

                          Coach                      Non-Coach
Year Team Coach           Opps  OA EqHAR ExHAR Rate  Opps  OA EqHAR ExHAR  Rate Ratio
2007 BOS  DeMarlo Hale     240   6   0.4  47.0 1.01   450   9 -10.8  45.0  0.76  1.33
2007 COL  Mike Gallego     266   4   8.5  62.2 1.14   429  12  -3.4  44.3  0.92  1.23
2007 HOU  Doug Mansolin    230   8  -5.0  50.9 0.90   349   4  -8.1  32.5  0.75  1.20
2007 DET  Gene Lamont      299   6   5.5  53.4 1.10   412   7  -2.7  43.0  0.94  1.18
2007 ATL  Brian Snitker    245   5   1.8  50.3 1.04   400   4  -4.1  37.3  0.89  1.16
2007 TBA  Tom Foley        229   2   4.0  45.1 1.09   386   6  -0.5  39.7  0.99  1.10
2007 SEA  Carlos Garcia    246   3   2.5  55.0 1.05   476   9  -2.4  49.9  0.95  1.10
2007 SFN  Gene Glynn       221   3   1.3  40.1 1.03   365  10  -2.1  40.2  0.95  1.09
2007 SDN  Tim Flannery     197   5   3.3  44.0 1.07   347   6  -0.2  34.5  1.00  1.08
2007 MIL  Nick Leyva       182   4   0.0  40.5 1.00   301   5  -1.7  33.1  0.95  1.06
2007 NYN  Sandy Alomar     217   3  -0.2  49.6 1.00   359  11  -1.7  36.6  0.95  1.04
2007 PHI  Steve Smith      263   8  -1.3  52.7 0.98   359   8  -2.0  38.2  0.95  1.03
2007 CLE  Joel Skinner     235   6   0.1  55.0 1.00   391   6  -0.7  40.8  0.98  1.02
2007 ANA  Dino Ebel        291   6   4.8  49.5 1.10   397  11   3.9  40.5  1.10  1.00
2007 KCA  Brian Poldber    219   4   4.6  47.7 1.10   357   8   3.0  30.8  1.10  1.00
2007 OAK  Rene Lacheman    242   4  -2.7  50.8 0.95   370   7  -1.9  39.5  0.95  0.99
2007 SLN  Jose Oquendo     271   8  -1.0  48.5 0.98   387   7  -0.5  35.5  0.98  0.99
2007 NYA  Larry Bowa       309   3   2.3  62.2 1.04   413   8   3.4  46.3  1.07  0.97
2007 LAN  Rich Donnelly    258   5   3.4  49.9 1.07   419   5   4.7  42.0  1.11  0.96
2007 FLO  Bo Porter        209   4  -4.2  39.4 0.89   361   7  -1.5  35.1  0.96  0.94
2007 PIT  Jeff Cox         227   4  -1.7  45.5 0.96   375   6   1.8  44.5  1.04  0.92
2007 ARI  Chip Hale        172   6  -2.9  42.5 0.93   336   8   1.7  31.7  1.05  0.89
2007 BAL  Juan Samuel      231   4  -5.6  48.4 0.88   397   8   0.3  40.1  1.01  0.88
2007 CHA  Razor Shines     194   5  -1.2  39.9 0.97   304   5   3.0  28.2  1.11  0.88
2007 TOR  Brian Butterf    208   7  -6.6  38.7 0.83   374   9  -1.7  38.0  0.96  0.87
2007 CHN  Mike Quade       241   6  -1.6  49.5 0.97   386   8   5.3  41.6  1.13  0.86
2007 MIN  Scott Ullger     236   9   0.2  50.7 1.00   388   6   5.9  33.8  1.17  0.86
2007 CIN  Mark Berry       209   8  -8.9  49.3 0.82   363   8  -1.3  38.1  0.96  0.85
2007 WAS  Tim Tolman       203   7  -4.7  41.4 0.89   347   4   2.2  35.6  1.06  0.84
2007 TEX  Don Wakamatsu    216   4   5.0  44.9 1.11   362   3  12.2  34.0  1.36  0.82

Both league champions bubble to the top of the list but those who've read the articles will know that this doesn't reflect much in terms of skill. This point was validated by looking at the careers of third base coaches and splitting the even and odd years in order to see if there was any persistence in ratio (defined as the ratio of the "coach-influenced" and "non-coach-influenced" opportunities). The plot below shows the career halves for the 35 coaches with the most experience from 1993 through 2007.



So again with a coefficient of determination of .03 there is no correlation for ratio indicating that there is precious little skill (or rather skill difference) between coaches at the major league level - assuming of course that the metric would capture the influence of a coach if it were present.

Finally then, here is the complete data set of the 125 coaches from 1993 through 2007 and how they did in terms of ratio.

                           Coach                  Non-Coach
Name              Season   Opps     OA   EqHAR    Opps     OA   EqHAR   Ratio
Greg Riddoch          1      77      3    -1.1     200      9    -7.4    1.51
Billy Hatcher         2     387      6     5.5     573     21   -11.4    1.33
Eddie Rodriguez       1     165      4    -1.7     340     10    -9.7    1.32
Bill Dancy            2     528     15     4.3     736     17   -13.1    1.26
Christopher Bando     3     570     15    -3.1     926     23   -19.0    1.24
Lance Parish          1     189      5     0.9     243      8    -4.2    1.24
Michael Cubbage       2     494     12     3.6     706     15   -11.6    1.23
Gary Allenson         3     517     22   -15.2     786     27   -20.2    1.18
Terry Bevington       2     439     12    -3.5     544     11    -8.7    1.17
DeMarlo Hale          2     489     11    -6.8     874     17   -18.4    1.17
Brian Snitker         1     245      5     1.8     400      4    -4.1    1.16
Terry Francona        1     200      4     0.2     349      9    -5.2    1.16
Al Pedrique           1     223      2     5.7     308      4    -0.8    1.16
Bobby Floyd           1     173      5    -2.7     316      8    -5.9    1.15
Dave  Myers           4     986     16     8.1    1463     35   -12.8    1.14
Tom Foley             6    1285     22    17.8    1995     49    -9.5    1.14
Ray Knight            2     341      5     7.0     562     15    -1.8    1.13
Rick Burleson         3     706     13     7.5    1081     33    -3.6    1.12
John Russell          3     672     19    -1.1    1096     24   -10.7    1.11
Jack Lind             3     556     12     3.3    1037     30    -8.6    1.11
Joe Amalfitano        6    1067     28     4.7    2097     56   -12.0    1.11
Eddie Rodriquez       2     475     11    -5.5     614     16    -7.8    1.10
David Oliver          2     507      6     4.2     786     14    -3.8    1.09
Nick Leyva            5     857     15     5.1    1524     30    -8.3    1.09
Jeff Datz             1     274      5    -0.4     400      7    -3.3    1.09
Willie Randolph       8    2001     40    18.4    2930     70    -6.1    1.09
Mike Gallego          3     753     12    10.8    1157     31    -2.6    1.09
Gene Lamont           7    1622     37    13.4    2496     61    -7.2    1.08
Gary Pettis           3     530     18    -3.4     741     17    -7.2    1.08
Ron Wotus             1     191      3     2.2     416      7    -0.9    1.07
Rene Lachemann        4     789     21   -12.7    1465     39   -14.9    1.06
Tom Trebelhorn        6    1323     32     4.4    2101     51    -4.8    1.06
Cookie Rojas          7    1392     38   -16.6    2374     56   -21.8    1.06
Jim Riggleamn         1     270      7    -1.5     308     11    -2.8    1.06
Juan Samuel           4     857     15     2.2    1373     31    -3.9    1.06
Ron Oester            2     407     11     0.4     571     20    -2.4    1.05
Sam Perlozzo          7    1564     31     5.0    2249     47    -3.6    1.05
Joel Skinner          6    1322     33    16.3    2041     47     2.6    1.05
Gene Glynn            8    1815     43   -16.4    2563     50   -17.3    1.05
Manny Acta            5    1032     17    15.7    1495     37     6.0    1.05
Ozzie Guillen         2     345     10     1.2     632     19    -1.9    1.04
Don Zimmer            1     147      4     0.3     262      6    -0.9    1.04
Joey Cora             1     234      9    -7.5     404      9    -6.9    1.04
Duffy Dyer            5    1039     26     7.8    1830     42     1.8    1.04
Carlos Garcia         2     472      9     1.3     853     22    -2.5    1.04
Ron Washington        8    1973     51     5.0    2590     45    -2.0    1.04
Tony Beasley          1     241      6     1.2     312      9    -0.4    1.04
Dino Ebel             2     529      9    15.8     770     20     8.8    1.04
Joel Youngblood       1     189      2     7.5     294      8     4.4    1.03
Steve Boros           3     570     14     1.6     901     28     0.5    1.03
Chuck Cottier         1     237      7     1.2     362      7    -0.2    1.03
Dale Sveum            3     789     18   -20.7    1201     26   -19.1    1.03
Cletis Boyer          2     478     13    -6.2     776     18    -6.8    1.03
Dave Bristol          1     194      9    -6.7     408      9    -6.3    1.02
Ron Jackson           2     515      8     1.6     778     20     0.2    1.02
Ron Hassey            1     186      3     0.1     342      8    -0.7    1.02
John Vukovich         7    1505     40    -7.3    2235     62    -5.3    1.02
Tim Foli              3     618     26    -0.8     844     27    -1.1    1.02
Sonny Jackson         4     843     25   -15.7    1241     31   -13.0    1.02
Al Newman             4     889     24     1.9    1384     28     1.5    1.01
Bobby Dews            2     397     17    -2.1     745     22    -3.6    1.01
John McLaren          2     507      7    -6.2     740     18    -5.8    1.01
Carlos Tosca          3     713     13     0.9     968     17    -0.6    1.01
Doug Mansolino        8    1769     40     4.9    2580     38     4.8    1.01
Jerry Narron          8    1788     35    23.1    2960     60    15.4    1.01
Luis Silverio         2     449      9     6.1     787     19     4.4    1.01
Rich Hacker           1     234      5     3.3     391      7     2.5    1.00
Matt Galante          6    1179     33    -3.2    1929     54     0.2    1.00
Bryan Little          2     411      4    11.0     700     16     8.8    1.00
Ken Macha             2     382     12     3.2     638     17     2.4    1.00
Brian Butterfield     7    1463     35    -5.6    2365     56     0.5    1.00
Brian Poldberg        1     219      4     4.6     357      8     3.0    1.00
Ned Yost              3     590     21    -7.6     797     24    -0.7    1.00
Mike Cubbage          7    1397     45     8.7    2383     65    13.0    1.00
Rob Picciolo          3     704     11     3.9    1163     24     7.3    0.99
Sandy Alomar          3     704     14    11.4    1042     26    10.7    0.99
Harry Dunlop          1     192      9    -5.5     398      8    -5.5    0.99
Perry Hill            2     401     10     0.3     684     21     1.5    0.98
Wendell Kim           9    1864     58   -27.1    3095     65    -6.5    0.98
Jose Oquendo          8    1887     41    23.8    2654     56    23.8    0.98
Dave Huppert          1     240      4    -1.3     318      7    -0.1    0.98
Steve Smith           7    1493     34    -5.8    2449     51     1.1    0.98
Jerry Royster         1     200      5    -2.3     366     11    -1.0    0.98
Bruce Bochy           2     381      9   -13.2     589     14    -7.9    0.97
Rich Donnelly        13    2868     84    -3.9    4287     92     8.1    0.97
Tommie Reynolds       4     719     14     6.4    1255     26     9.0    0.97
Tim Flannery          7    1526     39     4.2    2181     49    14.4    0.97
Jimmy Williams        4     841     26   -10.7    1208     30    -2.0    0.97
Glenn Hoffman         7    1541     42   -12.9    2019     47    -3.2    0.97
Larry Bowa            9    1870     37    -6.7    2866     55     5.8    0.97
Tim Raines            1     204      9     2.9     335      7     3.3    0.97
Jeff Newman           6    1313     32    -6.7    2143     43     6.2    0.97
Jerry Manuel          4     752     25   -18.4    1307     39    -8.1    0.96
Marc Bombard          1     170      1     6.8     301      5     6.8    0.96
Ron Gardenhire        5    1155     31    -2.4    1482     36     6.3    0.95
Bucky Dent            1     245      7    -0.5     401      9     2.0    0.94
Fredi Gonzalez        6    1249     25     0.6    2005     32    16.2    0.94
Rafael Santana        2     408      8     0.4     717     12     5.9    0.94
Jeff Cox              6    1246     32    -8.9    2057     36     5.0    0.94
Ron Roenicke          6    1538     40     4.0    1977     34    17.3    0.94
Bo Porter             1     209      4    -4.2     361      7    -1.5    0.94
Tom Gamboa            1     206      4     0.4     354      9     3.1    0.93
Dan Radison           1     227      4     2.1     331      8     4.1    0.93
Dave Oliver           2     406      4     8.0     621     11    11.3    0.92
John Mizerock         2     478     10    -0.5     790     13     6.7    0.91
Pete MacKanin         3     521     17    -4.6     846     20     5.1    0.91
Scott Ullger          5    1212     29     9.1    2058     40    26.4    0.91
Graig Nettles         1     236      8    -4.2     346     10     0.2    0.91
Gene Glenn            3     655     20   -10.9    1245     31     2.7    0.91
Tony Muser            3     557     16    -0.6     903     22     9.7    0.91
Luis Sojo             2     558     16    -5.6     718     12     5.3    0.91
Tony Harrah           1     272     11    -7.1     431      7    -0.9    0.91
Rich Dauer            5    1085     29    -1.3    1665     29    15.6    0.90
Tom Spencer           1     220      5     0.2     355      7     5.0    0.90
Chip Hale             1     172      6    -2.9     336      8     1.7    0.89
Mark Berry            4     893     26   -19.8    1274     25     2.0    0.88
Razor Shines          1     194      5    -1.2     304      5     3.0    0.88
Trent Jewett          2     354     10     1.4     454     10     7.1    0.87
Mike Quade            1     241      6    -1.6     386      8     5.3    0.86
Bobby Meacham         1     199      4     2.4     359      5     8.4    0.84
Tim Tolman            1     203      7    -4.7     347      4     2.2    0.84
John Sterns           1     206     10    -8.2     253     10    -0.1    0.83
Don Wakamatsu         1     216      4     5.0     362      3    12.2    0.82
Richard Tracewski     3     609     12    -3.1    1052     14    24.8    0.79
Chris Speier          4     865     22    -6.9    1160     15    25.1    0.78

For those scoring at home yes, Waving Wendall Kim did have the lowest overall EqHAR value at -27.1 runs with 58 runners caught on the bases in 9 seasons. However, when you consider non-coach-influenced opportunities he comes in just below an even ratio at 0.98 and 79th on our list.

The Hot Stove at Altitude

The Rocky Mountain Chapter of SABR held its annual “Hot Stove” meeting on January 26^th at Jackson’s All-American Grill located across the street from Coors Field in Denver. Being the Secretary of the chapter, yours truly took some notes and what follows is the synopsis.

President Paul Parker called the meeting to order a little past 10AM and after a few brief remarks introduced trivia-master Dave Wallack. Dave lead-off the festivities by distributing a quiz loaded with Rockies and other trivia to the 32 assembled members and guests. After 10 minutes of contemplation and confused looks the quizzes were scored with the top three finishers receiving their choice of copies of Baseball Between The Numbers or a wall poster of vintage baseball cards from the 1920s. It happened that three members tied for second place and so what turned out to be a not-so-fast “lightening round” moderated by Parker and Wallack (whose questions were a little tough to say the least) was held to determine the two who would take home the remaining door prizes.

Parker then continued the meeting by reminding members of the upcoming Denver Bears/New York Yankees Reunion fundraiser event now scheduled for May 3^rd at the Denver Athletic Club. As of now the event will feature Ralph Terry, Johnny Blanchard, Ryne Duran, and Woody Held and consist of research presentations, a panel discussion, and autograph session. Later in the meeting member Matt Repplinger discussed the availability of Rockies/Dodgers tickets for that evening’s game, which will be sold at the event with a part of the proceeds benefiting the chapter. The face value of the ticket will be $38 for an Outfield Box seat down the right field line in section 116. The chapter will be selling the $38 ticket for $28, ten dollars off the face value. The group’s planned summer trips to Albuquerque, Colorado Springs, and Casper, Wyoming were also discussed.

The meeting then continued with a research presentation by myself and Neal Williams where we presented our article “The Traffic Directors”, which will appear in the upcoming volume 36 of The Baseball Research Journal. The study focused on the attempt to quantify the contributions of third base coaches and to determine if there is a detectable skill component that can be measured. We used a subset of the base running metrics I developed for Baseball Prospectus but are augmented with the additional context of the personnel the coach had to work with. You can read the details in the BRJ or the two-part version online, but we conclude that if there is a skill component (or rather a skill difference between coaches if you prefer), it is too subtle to measure given the combination of play by play data and other influences. Attendees engaged in a short question and answer period before taking a brief break.

After the break Parker introduced the keynote speaker, Jeff Bridich, the Rockies Director of Baseball Operations. After giving a brief rundown of his career in baseball and his opportunity to join the Rockies in 2004 as the Director of Minor League Operations, Jeff began by asking the crowd how they would grade the Rockies off-season moves thus far which included the signings of Matt Holliday, Willy Taveras, and the record-breaking contract of Troy Tulowitzki. With that opening the attendees grabbed the bull by the horns and peppered Bridich with questions ranging from the arbitration cases of Brian Fuentes, Brad Hawpe, and Garrett Atkins to this spring’s competition at second base involving Jayson Nix and Marcus Giles among others, to the health of pitcher Jason Hirsch and the prospects of catcher Chris Iannetta. As you might imagine, much time was spent dissecting the options at second base for the upcoming season and Bridich provided some interesting background on the development of Nix as he went from an offensive prospect after being drafted in 2001 to the player most likely to hurt the team defensively at second. He also indicated that the loss of Carney Lansford as a minor league hitting coach was a big blow to their organization.

Being closely involved with the arbitration process, Bridich was able to provide excellent insight into the dynamics of the interaction between the two sides and with the three-member panel in what he characterized as often “not a friendly exchange of information”. Further, he discussed approaches to preparing arbitration cases from the club perspective including their use of some advanced metrics such as Zone Rating for measuring defense. Interestingly, he indicated that while the use of advanced metrics was certainly a part of their strategy, those metrics needed to be published and proven in the industry to the extent that they can show the panel that the metrics have some legs.

I found particularly interesting his comments on the baserunning of Willy Taveras where he noted that the Rockies are encouraging Taveras to be more liberal in his stolen base attempts, especially of third. Bridich related that when asked how many times he could have stolen third in 2007, Taveras indicated that he could have swiped third 30 or so times. While that's certainly an optimistic assessment even for a competitve player, it's certainly true that Taveras seems to have a fear of stealing third. Overall, in my baserunning framework I have him for 138 events at second base and just 3 at third over the course of his career and one of those three was actually a pickoff at second base and one came as his only stolen base attempt of 2004 (perhaps that's what instilled the fear?). Now if they could just teach him to bunt towards first base...

If Bridich had prepared remarks, the steady stream of questions from the attendees and his thoughtful and articulate answers prevented him from getting to them. After over an hour of discussion many in the group, including Bridich, enjoyed lunch at the restaurant while the discussion continued.

Thanks to all members and guests who participated in this stimulating morning of baseball discussion.

Rocky Mountain SABR 2008 Hot Stove Meeting

For anyone in the Denver and surrounding area you'll be interested to learn that the next meeting of the Rocky Mountain chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research will be held Saturday January 26, 2008. The public is welcome and if you want to know what to expect you can take a look at last year's minutes.

We'll kick off at 10:00 AM at Jackson's All-American Grill directly across the street from Coors Field at 20th and Blake in downtown Denver.


Our featured speaker will be Jeff Bridich, the Rockies' Director of Baseball Operations. Jeff is Harvard alumnus and was a catcher and outfielder on the Harvard baseball team serving as a tri-captain in his 2000 senior year. He formerly worked in the Office of the Commissioner for Major League Baseball where he worked closely with teams facilitating, reviewing and approving minor league contracts and transactions. Jeff became the Rockies Director of Minor League Operations in 2004 before being promoted to his current position in October of 2005.

In addition RMSABR member Dave Wallack will lead-off with some trivia and members Dan Fox and Neal Williams will present their article on third base coaches titled "The Traffic Directors" that will appear in the next edition of SABR's Baseball Research Journal due to be published this month.

Please join us for what will certainly be a stimulating morning of baseball discussion.

The Banquet Season

Well, the banquet season has begun and although it is the only banquet I ever attend my wife and I had a great time at the 10th annual banquet of the Rocky Mountain chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research. I'll be serving as the secretary starting in 2008 and wrote a little summary of the events. This year the event was held at the Coors Clubhouse inside Coors Field, a perfect venue especially after this very entertaining season. Suffice it to say a good time was had by all.

End of the Week

A busy week after being on vacation and so just a couple links:

Chat Transcript - here's the chat transcript from today. Thanks to all those who asked questions and sorry for cutting things a little short.

A Physicist Speaks - my column this week was an interview with Dr. Alan Nathan on the intersection of baseball and physics. I followed it up with an addendum on BP's Unfiltered blog.

Rocky Mountain SABR - our local SABR chapter has a new website and I made a small contribution following up on the bunting exploits of Willy Taveras. Hopefully it will become a community site for baseball fans on the Front Range and beyond.

More PITCHf/x - a wonderful summary of all the articles written on the system by Mike Fast.

Geivo-Fest!

On Saturday April 21st the Rocky Mountain chapter of The Society for American Baseball Research will get together to discuss all things 2007 Rockies with Bill Geivett, Assistant General Manager and Vice President of Baseball Operations of the Rockies. We'll meet at 12:30 PM in The Caboose Room of The Chophouse at 1735 19th Street in Denver near Coors Field.

The event will last until 2:30pm and then all are invited to take in the Rockies/Padres game at 6:05. Tickets are available for $7 and requests and payment can be sent to Paul Parker. Deadline for the tickets is April 18th.

SABR At Altitude

This morning I had an excellent time attending, along with 27 other members, the annual "Hot Stove" meeting of the Rocky Mountain Chapter of SABR hosted at Breckenridge Brewery right across the street from Coors Field. Before the meeting got under way a door drive consisting of MP3s of game 5 of the 1948 World Series were given away. Needless to say I didn't win and after treasurer Paul Parker noted the passings of Lew Burdette, Steve Barber, and Hank Bauer over the past few days the main program got under way.

Next, Parker introduced Beverly Coleman and Mary Leisring who now chair the Activities committee for the chapter and who have planned several events including our annual banquet which will be held at Coors Field this season in the visitors clubhouse, a trip to see the Rockies minor league affiliate in Casper Wyoming on July 14-15, and a trip to see the Sky Sox play here in Colorado Springs at some point in the season. Tom Virdon then spoke about organizing a trip to the annual SABR convention in July with a possible stop off in Kansas City where the Yankees will be playing directly before the convention. Tom is also a veteran of attending baseball tours and handed out literature that looks very interesting. Discussion of these and other chapter related topics can also be found on the message board.

Then it was on the main events.

First up was Chip Atkison (who incidentally is a data stringer for STATS, Inc. at Coors Field) who presented an overview of the book Baseball Before We Knew It: A Search for the Roots of the Game, by David Block and Tim Wiles. Atkison provided a nice synopsis of the book and the various myths about the development of the game that it sheds light on. Interestingly, the book contains back ground that goes all the way back to the 14th century and the various ball games that were played.

After Atkison spoke Parker introduced the primary subject of the meeting - the humidor. Relating information from the "environmental chamber's" (as the Rockies prefer it be called) creator, Parker mentioned the following:

The chamber can hold 400 dozen baseballs

The chamber is designed to keep the ball at the MLB specifications which dictate that it be between 5 and 5.25 ounces and 9 and 9.25 inches in circumference

The Rockies receive 4 to 5 shipments of balls per season

When the balls are received that are removed from the shipping boxes and immediately stocked in the humidor where they can remain for up to 2 months before they make it into a game

Before each game 10 to 12 dozen are removed from the chamber (possibly 4 to 5 hours before the game), rubbed in Delaware mud by the clubhouse man, and then returned to the chamber until game time.

The balls that will start the game are taken out somewhere around 20 minutes prior to the game and new balls are retrieved from the chamber during the game.

Parker then mentioned an Associated Press article published this morning that states that the commissioner's office has advised teams that all baseballs used in play must be stored at 70 degrees. Joe Garagiola Jr. stated:

"We have contacted all 30 of the clubs, and they have all confirmed to us that they will all be storing their baseballs in a temperature-controlled facility. We`re not going to have humidors every place, but every place will be temperature controlled, and so I think there will be a very high degree of uniformity."

Apparently the majority of teams were already doing this and to me the move makes a good deal of sense. While in many places an environmental chamber may not be cost effective, certainly controlling for temperature seems like a good minimum step. Further Garagiola said that they've mandated that teams only use balls manufactured in the current year.

Next, Parker introduced Dave Dresen, who presented a synopsis of an article published in 2003 in the Professional Geographer regarding baseball at Coors Field. The article can be summarized as follows:

Although one might expect balls to travel about 10% farther at Coors per the model that Robert K. Adair used in The Physics of Baseball, balls actually travel about 6% further (using 1995-1998 data from STATS). I included some more recent data in my column on the subject of Coors Field back in June

Evidence from the meteorological devices installed at Coors during the 1997 season showed that the primary wind vector opposes balls hit to right field and helps to explain why flyballs at Coors Field don't travel as far as would be expected.

When the dimensions of ballparks are taken into account the average fly ball actually ends up closer to the wall in St. Louis (old Busch Stadium) than at Coors. Overall Coors has a 3% advantage over the other National League ballparks

As a result, it is likely that personnel (poor Rockies pitchers) coupled with the general difficulty of pitching at altitude (flatter trajectories on curve balls and pre-humidor shrinking and hardening of baseballs) are the major reason for the increase in homeruns

Finally, Walter Sylvester, who works in the Baseball Operations department for the Rockies, was introduced and opened the floor to questions from the group. In answering one question he noted that a sample of balls are tested when they come out of the chamber to ensure they still meet specifications with the ones that fail the test being used for batting practice. He also opined that he thought that eventually bats may come under the same scrutiny as baseballs and that he thought that the baseballs used in the bullpens by pitchers also come from the chamber (which makes sense since a pitcher warming up should use baseballs that are as close to those used in the game as possible).

Regarding the chamber it is his view that at the end of the day it really comes down to personnel. In fact and most interestingly, he seemed to lean more towards the position that the chamber shouldn't be used since it can and should be made to work to the Rockies advantage both on the field and psychologically (for example an ad for the firm 5280 in the visitor's clubhouse reminding the opposing teams of where they are). Although he wasn't asked about roster construction in those conditions (I did ask the question afterwards and he said he thought expanding the number of pitchers, for example, would be situational in terms of how the season was progressing) nor about the so-called hangover effect for Rockies hitters, he made the point that excellent pitchers such as Roy Halladay and Luke Hochevar have come out of Colorado and so it is possible to succeed at altitude with good players (of course the counter argument that the same rules don't apply at the high school and college levels wasn't addressed). To this comment he received a nice round of applause. He also cited the improved pitching of the Rockies in 2006 on the strength of Jason Jennings and Aaron Cook and not the chamber as most responsible for run scoring being down a bit at Coors.

In answering a question about using chambers at the minor league level he had some disparaging words for Colorado Springs calling it "the worst environment" to play baseball in. Still, he thinks there may be some advantage although the Rockies with Jeff Francis and the Dodgers with Jackson in Las Vegas have sought to avoid too many starts in those environments.

Yours truly then jumped in and asked to what the front office attributes the upturn in run scoring over the final 28 games of the 2006 season at Coors Field? The chart below tells the tale.



In answering the question Sylvester noted that he assists with arbitration cases for the Rockies in the case of Matt Holliday who looked great in September, the team attributed the higher run environment to a myriad of causes including September callups and the team being out of the race and the player's relaxed. He apparently did not see any significance in it and explicitly denied that anything was different with the chamber. In looking at trends like these over short time spans he also noted that he's a big believer in examining strength of schedule and in this case even the possibility of wind patterns that were out of ordinary. Certainly this is a small sample size and so it will be interesting to see whether Coors plays more like it did the first 53 games of 2006 (8.96 runs per game vs. the league average of 9.00) or the final 28.

There were also questions related to the signing of Matzuzaka in Boston and the inevitable Todd Helton questions related to the recent trade talks. The front office still considers Helton a big asset on offense (Sylvester is a big believer in working deep counts, drawing walks, and tiring starters and mentioned that "not making an out is very valuable") and is hoping that his conditioning program will allow him to regain some of his power this season. However, at 33 he said the organization certainly "hopes" Helton can get better but acknowledged the aging curve is working against Helton while working in favor of Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, and Brad Hawpe.

When asked if the shortstop and catching positions are Troy Tulowitzki's and Chris Iannetta's for the losing, he definitely agreed that they would have to play themselves out of jobs. He also sees the team doing a lot more running in 2007.

All in all an enjoyable morning in February with snow still on the ground.

SABR and the Humidor

For those in the Denver area there will be a meeting of the Rocky Mountain SABR chapter on Saturday February 10th from 9:30AM until Noon at the Breckenridge Brewery - 220 Blake Street in downtown Denver near Coors Field. This will be the annual "Hot Stove" meeting but the topic of discussion will be the humidor with speakers Walter Sylvester, an Assistant in the Baseball Operations department for the Rockies and Dave Dresen presenting on the topic of "Physics of Baseball at Altitude". Should be a great time and so if you're interested in perhaps joining SABR feel free to come by.

If you're interested in the topic of the humidor you might enjoy these...

Schrodinger's Bat: Swing and Miss

Schrodinger's Bat: More Humidity

Of Humidors and Humidity

Coors Field Fun Facts

Scouting with SABR

Last Saturday night was the annual banquet of the Rocky Mountain SABR chapter and my wife and I were in attendance with approximately 75 other baseball fans. Last year was the first I had attended and like last year the event was a great deal of fun and the speakers entertaining.

Like last year the dinner was held at the Denver Athletic Club in downtown Denver and right down the hall from a large crowd at the Denver Sailing Association.

The evening got underway as Paul Parker, treasurer and Rockies club historian and manager of the "community fields" program, introduced Keith Bleyer who served as the MC for the evening. Keith servers as the roving reporter on Fox Sports Rocky Mountain telecasts of Rockies games. After reports from Parker and Neal Williams the chapter president while we enjoyed our dinners, Bleyer introduced the first speaker, Matt Vinnola, who manages the professional scouting organization for the Rockies.

Matt spoke for about 20 minutes and in that time took the crowd through a typical season in the professional scouting department starting with the end of the season and running through the crescendo of his work - the July 31st trading deadline of the next season. Matt manages 10 people including several former managers such as Marcel Lachemann and other scouts whose job it is both to scout all of the other team's existing players as well as the Rockies organization. Although he lost some of the crowd in his explanatin of article 19 versus article 20 free agents and other rules of availability, he provided a great deal of information in a short period of time. Essentially Matt's job is to consolidate information from his scouts as well as supplementing that data with the MLB's scouting bureau in order to do things like maintain the 40-man roster boards on all 30 teams, create a top 20 prospects report on all the teams, and provide input on which teams are likely to re-sign players and go after particular free agents. All of this information is then fed to the decision makers in GM Dan O'Dowd and Assistant GM Bill Geivett.

Over the course of last season Matt estimated he read upwards of 9,000 reports on various players and while he admits he's not a scout, he's conversant enough in the language and has read enough reports to be able to pour through them and filter the necessary information. Actually, he said if he were a scout he'd be a "3-5-7" scout meaning that on the 8-point scouting scale he can look at a player and see if he's not very good, a decent player, or really good. The subtleties of arm angles and motion repeatability are more difficult and feed into the finer distinctions drawn by professional scouts. He also noted that's not a stranger to doing a bit of statistical analysis himself and shared an interesting factoid - the Rockies in 2006 were second in all of baseball behind only the Yankees in run scoring in innings 1 through 6 but dead last from the 7th inning on. He didn't speculate as to why this might be the case however. And he also mentioned that while of course the information from his scouts is treasured, he also scours the internet looking at STATS and other sites to provide as complete a picture as possible.

At the end of his talk he fielded a few questions and when asked about performance enhancing drugs, he was quick to point out that while he thinks evaluating players (pitchers too) with potential PED issues is among the biggest challenges, the data he's looked at hasn't shown the drastic decline that he would have expected. He answered several other questions including one the likelihood of scouts in the hall of fame (he's all for it not surprisingly) and in all his talk was enthusiastically given and very well received.

After Bleyer entertainingly played auctioneer in the auctioning off of an autographed Rockies bat ($180) and "A League of Their Own" movie poster ($425) autographed by Tom Hanks and Madonna among others Thomas Harding of MLB.com and the "feeling good feeling clean" report on MLB radio gave the keynote address. Harding talked about his career from his humble beginnings in Bluefield West Virginia to his days in Memphis and finally his opening with the Colorado Springs Gazette that has since led him to Denver. He told several interesting anecdotes but probably the most entertaining was his first experience in covering a major league game in Atlanta in 1983 while still a college student. Failing to ask manager Joe Torre his question at the right time, he hung around afterwards and summoned the courage. Torre immediately asked him when he graduated and proceeded to allow the young reporter to ask his questions while he shaved. From there Harding was hooked.

The evening ended with the closing of bids on various items including baseball books and cards. Yours truly snagged a copy of Saving the Pitcher by Will Carroll and I'll admit to having outbid the keynote speaker. President Williams also awarded SABR memberships to Bleyer and the two speakers. Once again a very entertaining evening in the fellowship of other baseball fans (sponsored I might add by the Rockies organization). What's not to like?