The Traffic Directors Addendum

By now SABR members should have received their copies of volume 36 of The Baseball Research Journal. For me receiving the journal in large part pays for the cost of the SABR membership as there are always more than a few interesting articles to peruse. Although I haven't read the entire journal yet the articles on strategy in Japanese baseball (titled "The Evolution of Japanese Baseball Strategy") by Robert K. Fitch and "A Manifesto for Defensive Baseball Statistics" by Dr. Jon Bruschke certainly caught my eye.

This year, however, I have another reason to be interested with the inclusion of an article by Neal Williams and me titled "The Traffic Directors". Some readers will be familiar with this topic since an online version of the article appeared in two parts last spring over on Rich Lederer's Baseball Analysts site. And so if you don't get the journal you can read about the methodology there.

In presenting the article to a group of SABRites here in Colorado a few weeks ago I went back and took a look 2007 data and at the rest of the data set that Neal had collected in response to a few questions by those assembled.

First, let's take a look at the 2007 third base coaches ordered by ratio.

                          Coach                      Non-Coach
Year Team Coach           Opps  OA EqHAR ExHAR Rate  Opps  OA EqHAR ExHAR  Rate Ratio
2007 BOS  DeMarlo Hale     240   6   0.4  47.0 1.01   450   9 -10.8  45.0  0.76  1.33
2007 COL  Mike Gallego     266   4   8.5  62.2 1.14   429  12  -3.4  44.3  0.92  1.23
2007 HOU  Doug Mansolin    230   8  -5.0  50.9 0.90   349   4  -8.1  32.5  0.75  1.20
2007 DET  Gene Lamont      299   6   5.5  53.4 1.10   412   7  -2.7  43.0  0.94  1.18
2007 ATL  Brian Snitker    245   5   1.8  50.3 1.04   400   4  -4.1  37.3  0.89  1.16
2007 TBA  Tom Foley        229   2   4.0  45.1 1.09   386   6  -0.5  39.7  0.99  1.10
2007 SEA  Carlos Garcia    246   3   2.5  55.0 1.05   476   9  -2.4  49.9  0.95  1.10
2007 SFN  Gene Glynn       221   3   1.3  40.1 1.03   365  10  -2.1  40.2  0.95  1.09
2007 SDN  Tim Flannery     197   5   3.3  44.0 1.07   347   6  -0.2  34.5  1.00  1.08
2007 MIL  Nick Leyva       182   4   0.0  40.5 1.00   301   5  -1.7  33.1  0.95  1.06
2007 NYN  Sandy Alomar     217   3  -0.2  49.6 1.00   359  11  -1.7  36.6  0.95  1.04
2007 PHI  Steve Smith      263   8  -1.3  52.7 0.98   359   8  -2.0  38.2  0.95  1.03
2007 CLE  Joel Skinner     235   6   0.1  55.0 1.00   391   6  -0.7  40.8  0.98  1.02
2007 ANA  Dino Ebel        291   6   4.8  49.5 1.10   397  11   3.9  40.5  1.10  1.00
2007 KCA  Brian Poldber    219   4   4.6  47.7 1.10   357   8   3.0  30.8  1.10  1.00
2007 OAK  Rene Lacheman    242   4  -2.7  50.8 0.95   370   7  -1.9  39.5  0.95  0.99
2007 SLN  Jose Oquendo     271   8  -1.0  48.5 0.98   387   7  -0.5  35.5  0.98  0.99
2007 NYA  Larry Bowa       309   3   2.3  62.2 1.04   413   8   3.4  46.3  1.07  0.97
2007 LAN  Rich Donnelly    258   5   3.4  49.9 1.07   419   5   4.7  42.0  1.11  0.96
2007 FLO  Bo Porter        209   4  -4.2  39.4 0.89   361   7  -1.5  35.1  0.96  0.94
2007 PIT  Jeff Cox         227   4  -1.7  45.5 0.96   375   6   1.8  44.5  1.04  0.92
2007 ARI  Chip Hale        172   6  -2.9  42.5 0.93   336   8   1.7  31.7  1.05  0.89
2007 BAL  Juan Samuel      231   4  -5.6  48.4 0.88   397   8   0.3  40.1  1.01  0.88
2007 CHA  Razor Shines     194   5  -1.2  39.9 0.97   304   5   3.0  28.2  1.11  0.88
2007 TOR  Brian Butterf    208   7  -6.6  38.7 0.83   374   9  -1.7  38.0  0.96  0.87
2007 CHN  Mike Quade       241   6  -1.6  49.5 0.97   386   8   5.3  41.6  1.13  0.86
2007 MIN  Scott Ullger     236   9   0.2  50.7 1.00   388   6   5.9  33.8  1.17  0.86
2007 CIN  Mark Berry       209   8  -8.9  49.3 0.82   363   8  -1.3  38.1  0.96  0.85
2007 WAS  Tim Tolman       203   7  -4.7  41.4 0.89   347   4   2.2  35.6  1.06  0.84
2007 TEX  Don Wakamatsu    216   4   5.0  44.9 1.11   362   3  12.2  34.0  1.36  0.82

Both league champions bubble to the top of the list but those who've read the articles will know that this doesn't reflect much in terms of skill. This point was validated by looking at the careers of third base coaches and splitting the even and odd years in order to see if there was any persistence in ratio (defined as the ratio of the "coach-influenced" and "non-coach-influenced" opportunities). The plot below shows the career halves for the 35 coaches with the most experience from 1993 through 2007.



So again with a coefficient of determination of .03 there is no correlation for ratio indicating that there is precious little skill (or rather skill difference) between coaches at the major league level - assuming of course that the metric would capture the influence of a coach if it were present.

Finally then, here is the complete data set of the 125 coaches from 1993 through 2007 and how they did in terms of ratio.

                           Coach                  Non-Coach
Name              Season   Opps     OA   EqHAR    Opps     OA   EqHAR   Ratio
Greg Riddoch          1      77      3    -1.1     200      9    -7.4    1.51
Billy Hatcher         2     387      6     5.5     573     21   -11.4    1.33
Eddie Rodriguez       1     165      4    -1.7     340     10    -9.7    1.32
Bill Dancy            2     528     15     4.3     736     17   -13.1    1.26
Christopher Bando     3     570     15    -3.1     926     23   -19.0    1.24
Lance Parish          1     189      5     0.9     243      8    -4.2    1.24
Michael Cubbage       2     494     12     3.6     706     15   -11.6    1.23
Gary Allenson         3     517     22   -15.2     786     27   -20.2    1.18
Terry Bevington       2     439     12    -3.5     544     11    -8.7    1.17
DeMarlo Hale          2     489     11    -6.8     874     17   -18.4    1.17
Brian Snitker         1     245      5     1.8     400      4    -4.1    1.16
Terry Francona        1     200      4     0.2     349      9    -5.2    1.16
Al Pedrique           1     223      2     5.7     308      4    -0.8    1.16
Bobby Floyd           1     173      5    -2.7     316      8    -5.9    1.15
Dave  Myers           4     986     16     8.1    1463     35   -12.8    1.14
Tom Foley             6    1285     22    17.8    1995     49    -9.5    1.14
Ray Knight            2     341      5     7.0     562     15    -1.8    1.13
Rick Burleson         3     706     13     7.5    1081     33    -3.6    1.12
John Russell          3     672     19    -1.1    1096     24   -10.7    1.11
Jack Lind             3     556     12     3.3    1037     30    -8.6    1.11
Joe Amalfitano        6    1067     28     4.7    2097     56   -12.0    1.11
Eddie Rodriquez       2     475     11    -5.5     614     16    -7.8    1.10
David Oliver          2     507      6     4.2     786     14    -3.8    1.09
Nick Leyva            5     857     15     5.1    1524     30    -8.3    1.09
Jeff Datz             1     274      5    -0.4     400      7    -3.3    1.09
Willie Randolph       8    2001     40    18.4    2930     70    -6.1    1.09
Mike Gallego          3     753     12    10.8    1157     31    -2.6    1.09
Gene Lamont           7    1622     37    13.4    2496     61    -7.2    1.08
Gary Pettis           3     530     18    -3.4     741     17    -7.2    1.08
Ron Wotus             1     191      3     2.2     416      7    -0.9    1.07
Rene Lachemann        4     789     21   -12.7    1465     39   -14.9    1.06
Tom Trebelhorn        6    1323     32     4.4    2101     51    -4.8    1.06
Cookie Rojas          7    1392     38   -16.6    2374     56   -21.8    1.06
Jim Riggleamn         1     270      7    -1.5     308     11    -2.8    1.06
Juan Samuel           4     857     15     2.2    1373     31    -3.9    1.06
Ron Oester            2     407     11     0.4     571     20    -2.4    1.05
Sam Perlozzo          7    1564     31     5.0    2249     47    -3.6    1.05
Joel Skinner          6    1322     33    16.3    2041     47     2.6    1.05
Gene Glynn            8    1815     43   -16.4    2563     50   -17.3    1.05
Manny Acta            5    1032     17    15.7    1495     37     6.0    1.05
Ozzie Guillen         2     345     10     1.2     632     19    -1.9    1.04
Don Zimmer            1     147      4     0.3     262      6    -0.9    1.04
Joey Cora             1     234      9    -7.5     404      9    -6.9    1.04
Duffy Dyer            5    1039     26     7.8    1830     42     1.8    1.04
Carlos Garcia         2     472      9     1.3     853     22    -2.5    1.04
Ron Washington        8    1973     51     5.0    2590     45    -2.0    1.04
Tony Beasley          1     241      6     1.2     312      9    -0.4    1.04
Dino Ebel             2     529      9    15.8     770     20     8.8    1.04
Joel Youngblood       1     189      2     7.5     294      8     4.4    1.03
Steve Boros           3     570     14     1.6     901     28     0.5    1.03
Chuck Cottier         1     237      7     1.2     362      7    -0.2    1.03
Dale Sveum            3     789     18   -20.7    1201     26   -19.1    1.03
Cletis Boyer          2     478     13    -6.2     776     18    -6.8    1.03
Dave Bristol          1     194      9    -6.7     408      9    -6.3    1.02
Ron Jackson           2     515      8     1.6     778     20     0.2    1.02
Ron Hassey            1     186      3     0.1     342      8    -0.7    1.02
John Vukovich         7    1505     40    -7.3    2235     62    -5.3    1.02
Tim Foli              3     618     26    -0.8     844     27    -1.1    1.02
Sonny Jackson         4     843     25   -15.7    1241     31   -13.0    1.02
Al Newman             4     889     24     1.9    1384     28     1.5    1.01
Bobby Dews            2     397     17    -2.1     745     22    -3.6    1.01
John McLaren          2     507      7    -6.2     740     18    -5.8    1.01
Carlos Tosca          3     713     13     0.9     968     17    -0.6    1.01
Doug Mansolino        8    1769     40     4.9    2580     38     4.8    1.01
Jerry Narron          8    1788     35    23.1    2960     60    15.4    1.01
Luis Silverio         2     449      9     6.1     787     19     4.4    1.01
Rich Hacker           1     234      5     3.3     391      7     2.5    1.00
Matt Galante          6    1179     33    -3.2    1929     54     0.2    1.00
Bryan Little          2     411      4    11.0     700     16     8.8    1.00
Ken Macha             2     382     12     3.2     638     17     2.4    1.00
Brian Butterfield     7    1463     35    -5.6    2365     56     0.5    1.00
Brian Poldberg        1     219      4     4.6     357      8     3.0    1.00
Ned Yost              3     590     21    -7.6     797     24    -0.7    1.00
Mike Cubbage          7    1397     45     8.7    2383     65    13.0    1.00
Rob Picciolo          3     704     11     3.9    1163     24     7.3    0.99
Sandy Alomar          3     704     14    11.4    1042     26    10.7    0.99
Harry Dunlop          1     192      9    -5.5     398      8    -5.5    0.99
Perry Hill            2     401     10     0.3     684     21     1.5    0.98
Wendell Kim           9    1864     58   -27.1    3095     65    -6.5    0.98
Jose Oquendo          8    1887     41    23.8    2654     56    23.8    0.98
Dave Huppert          1     240      4    -1.3     318      7    -0.1    0.98
Steve Smith           7    1493     34    -5.8    2449     51     1.1    0.98
Jerry Royster         1     200      5    -2.3     366     11    -1.0    0.98
Bruce Bochy           2     381      9   -13.2     589     14    -7.9    0.97
Rich Donnelly        13    2868     84    -3.9    4287     92     8.1    0.97
Tommie Reynolds       4     719     14     6.4    1255     26     9.0    0.97
Tim Flannery          7    1526     39     4.2    2181     49    14.4    0.97
Jimmy Williams        4     841     26   -10.7    1208     30    -2.0    0.97
Glenn Hoffman         7    1541     42   -12.9    2019     47    -3.2    0.97
Larry Bowa            9    1870     37    -6.7    2866     55     5.8    0.97
Tim Raines            1     204      9     2.9     335      7     3.3    0.97
Jeff Newman           6    1313     32    -6.7    2143     43     6.2    0.97
Jerry Manuel          4     752     25   -18.4    1307     39    -8.1    0.96
Marc Bombard          1     170      1     6.8     301      5     6.8    0.96
Ron Gardenhire        5    1155     31    -2.4    1482     36     6.3    0.95
Bucky Dent            1     245      7    -0.5     401      9     2.0    0.94
Fredi Gonzalez        6    1249     25     0.6    2005     32    16.2    0.94
Rafael Santana        2     408      8     0.4     717     12     5.9    0.94
Jeff Cox              6    1246     32    -8.9    2057     36     5.0    0.94
Ron Roenicke          6    1538     40     4.0    1977     34    17.3    0.94
Bo Porter             1     209      4    -4.2     361      7    -1.5    0.94
Tom Gamboa            1     206      4     0.4     354      9     3.1    0.93
Dan Radison           1     227      4     2.1     331      8     4.1    0.93
Dave Oliver           2     406      4     8.0     621     11    11.3    0.92
John Mizerock         2     478     10    -0.5     790     13     6.7    0.91
Pete MacKanin         3     521     17    -4.6     846     20     5.1    0.91
Scott Ullger          5    1212     29     9.1    2058     40    26.4    0.91
Graig Nettles         1     236      8    -4.2     346     10     0.2    0.91
Gene Glenn            3     655     20   -10.9    1245     31     2.7    0.91
Tony Muser            3     557     16    -0.6     903     22     9.7    0.91
Luis Sojo             2     558     16    -5.6     718     12     5.3    0.91
Tony Harrah           1     272     11    -7.1     431      7    -0.9    0.91
Rich Dauer            5    1085     29    -1.3    1665     29    15.6    0.90
Tom Spencer           1     220      5     0.2     355      7     5.0    0.90
Chip Hale             1     172      6    -2.9     336      8     1.7    0.89
Mark Berry            4     893     26   -19.8    1274     25     2.0    0.88
Razor Shines          1     194      5    -1.2     304      5     3.0    0.88
Trent Jewett          2     354     10     1.4     454     10     7.1    0.87
Mike Quade            1     241      6    -1.6     386      8     5.3    0.86
Bobby Meacham         1     199      4     2.4     359      5     8.4    0.84
Tim Tolman            1     203      7    -4.7     347      4     2.2    0.84
John Sterns           1     206     10    -8.2     253     10    -0.1    0.83
Don Wakamatsu         1     216      4     5.0     362      3    12.2    0.82
Richard Tracewski     3     609     12    -3.1    1052     14    24.8    0.79
Chris Speier          4     865     22    -6.9    1160     15    25.1    0.78

For those scoring at home yes, Waving Wendall Kim did have the lowest overall EqHAR value at -27.1 runs with 58 runners caught on the bases in 9 seasons. However, when you consider non-coach-influenced opportunities he comes in just below an even ratio at 0.98 and 79th on our list.