Today in my column on Baseball Prospectus I take a look at minor league outfielders using the SFR system. As I've done previously I take a look at the leaders and trailers at all levels before aggregating across all positions and leagues to list the best and worst defenders in the outfield among minor leaguers in 2007.
In addition, I examine Baseball America's top outfield and infield defenders published in their Baseball America Prospect Handbook for 2008 and compare them to what SFR thinks. From an overall perspective the subjective and objective systems largely agree although Marlins top prospect Cameron Maybin is one of the few players on which the two approaches seem to disagree violently. Maybin fared poorly across all hit types in his 70 games in centerfield while at Lakeland and overall including his time in the Eastern League ended up at -15.4 runs on 421 balls fielded. It certainly is the case that the smaller sample sizes in the minor league seasons tend to make the results less reliable than for major leaguers but still, I was somewhat surprised given the glowing assessments by so many. If there are any fans out there who've watched him play in person I'd be interested in hearing what you think.
And as always a spreadsheet is now available with all 4000+ player, position, and league combinations.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Maybe He is but Maybin He Isn't?
Friday, December 28, 2007
SFR in the Infield - NL East
And now the NL East infielders in Simple Fielding Runs (SFR).
Ex
Name Team POS Balls Runners Runners SFR
Tim Hudson ATL 1 42 4 0 2.8
Peter Moylan ATL 1 21 2 1 0.9
Kyle Davies ATL 1 16 2 2 -0.1
Buddy Carlyle ATL 1 20 3 3 -0.2
John Smoltz ATL 1 34 3 4 -0.4
Chuck James ATL 1 22 3 7 -3.1
Brian McCann ATL 2 56 4 4 0.1
Craig Wilson ATL 3 39 6 4 1.5
Julio Franco ATL 3 25 5 3 1.3
Mark Teixeira ATL 3 125 16 16 0.1
Jarrod Saltalamacchia ATL 3 26 4 5 -1.3
Scott Thorman ATL 3 156 25 30 -3.8
Kelly Johnson ATL 4 545 139 133 4.8
Martin Prado ATL 4 40 11 6 3.3
Yunel Escobar ATL 4 64 17 13 2.8
Chris Woodward ATL 4 27 7 7 -0.3
Chipper Jones ATL 5 342 73 64 7.0
Yunel Escobar ATL 5 50 11 10 0.6
Pete Orr ATL 5 20 5 5 0.0
Chris Woodward ATL 5 27 6 9 -2.1
Chris Woodward ATL 6 27 8 9 0.6
Yunel Escobar ATL 6 181 48 46 0.5
Edgar Renteria ATL 6 501 141 139 0.2
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Sergio Mitre FLO 1 30 3 0 2.3
Scott Olsen FLO 1 25 3 4 -0.6
Dontrelle Willis FLO 1 45 5 6 -1.0
Miguel Olivo FLO 2 50 4 5 -0.7
Matt Treanor FLO 2 15 1 2 -0.8
Jason Wood FLO 3 39 6 5 0.6
Aaron Boone FLO 3 105 15 19 -2.9
Mike Jacobs FLO 3 208 31 38 -5.3
Alfredo Amezaga FLO 4 30 6 6 0.4
Dan Uggla FLO 4 629 158 190 -24.5
Alfredo Amezaga FLO 5 17 2 4 -1.3
Aaron Boone FLO 5 20 3 6 -1.6
Miguel Cabrera FLO 5 446 96 112 -12.6
Alfredo Amezaga FLO 6 58 15 16 2.5
Hanley Ramirez FLO 6 662 177 197 -15.1
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Orlando Hernandez NYN 1 21 2 0 1.6
John Maine NYN 1 19 2 0 1.4
Tom Glavine NYN 1 28 3 1 1.4
Guillermo Mota NYN 1 15 1 0 1.0
Aaron Heilman NYN 1 16 2 2 -0.3
Pedro Feliciano NYN 1 19 2 3 -1.0
Paul Lo Duca NYN 2 35 2 2 -0.4
Carlos Delgado NYN 3 285 40 40 -0.1
Shawn Green NYN 3 24 3 4 -1.5
Damion Easley NYN 4 161 38 34 2.7
Jose Valentin NYN 4 195 44 40 2.7
Luis Castillo NYN 4 159 38 44 -4.5
Ruben Gotay NYN 4 133 31 38 -5.4
David Wright NYN 5 504 107 101 4.3
Jose Reyes NYN 6 654 179 154 17.9
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Jamie Moyer PHI 1 32 3 2 1.1
Kyle Kendrick PHI 1 21 2 1 0.7
Cole Hamels PHI 1 25 3 2 0.5
Adam Eaton PHI 1 25 3 3 0.1
Carlos Ruiz PHI 2 47 3 1 1.5
Greg Dobbs PHI 3 22 3 1 1.2
Wes Helms PHI 3 20 2 3 -0.2
Ryan Howard PHI 3 310 42 46 -3.3
Chase Utley PHI 4 532 133 121 8.6
Tadahito Iguchi PHI 4 115 28 27 0.6
Abraham Nunez PHI 5 257 58 53 3.6
Wes Helms PHI 5 149 33 33 0.0
Greg Dobbs PHI 5 151 31 40 -7.3
Jimmy Rollins PHI 6 717 198 187 6.1
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Saul Rivera WAS 1 26 2 0 1.6
Matt Chico WAS 1 16 2 0 1.2
Shawn Hill WAS 1 16 1 0 1.1
Tim Redding WAS 1 15 1 1 0.4
Mike Bacsik WAS 1 16 1 1 0.3
Brian Schneider WAS 2 42 3 1 1.1
Jesus Flores WAS 2 21 1 0 1.1
Robert Fick WAS 3 97 15 16 -0.6
Tony Batista WAS 3 28 3 5 -1.1
Dmitri Young WAS 3 198 28 35 -5.4
D'Angelo Jimenez WAS 4 33 8 8 0.3
Felipe Lopez WAS 4 172 40 41 -0.7
Ronnie Belliard WAS 4 457 106 117 -7.7
Ryan Zimmerman WAS 5 548 115 104 9.0
Cristian Guzman WAS 6 159 43 42 0.9
Josh Wilson WAS 6 25 7 7 -0.3
Ronnie Belliard WAS 6 16 4 4 -0.3
Felipe Lopez WAS 6 488 128 126 -1.0
D'Angelo Jimenez WAS 6 38 10 12 -1.6
Friday, December 07, 2007
Team SFR Totals 2007
In the Schrodinger's Bat column titled "Defense and Alphabet Soup" I discussed how the SFR system was developed. Last night I plugged a couple of holes by including the context for batter handedness and taking into consideration the impact of bunts. In doing so I re-ran the numbers for 2007 and so I thought it would be interesting to look at the totals by team. Keep in mind this is for infielders only. In the table below Balls are the total number of balls assigned to all infielders for that team. There is overlap here since the virtual areas of responsibility for shortstop, say, and thirdbaseman both take into consideration ground balls that reach left field. ExRunners are the expected number of runners to reach base. Diff is the difference between the expected number and the actual number (so for Colorado 1988 runners were expected to reach based but only 1895 did). 2B are the number of two base hits the team either saved (a positive number) or gave up (a negative number) and 1B are the number of singles in a similar fashion.
Team SFR Balls ExRunners Diff 2B 1B
COL 72 4092 1988 93 9 84
SDN 72 3795 1798 91 10 80
TOR 65 3885 1845 84 8 76
SFN 54 3754 1797 69 9 60
BOS 54 3537 1678 69 9 60
OAK 44 3876 1880 57 5 52
SLN 37 4008 1946 47 6 41
MIN 34 3650 1733 43 8 35
CHN 28 3514 1659 35 5 30
ATL 24 3677 1709 32 4 28
NYN 21 3633 1728 27 2 25
PHI 20 3860 1855 25 3 23
ARI 16 3724 1817 20 3 18
NYA 15 3806 1861 19 5 14
ANA 5 3608 1770 7 0 7
BAL 4 3762 1822 6 0 6
KCA -3 3823 1927 -3 -3 -1
TEX -9 3979 1955 -9 -4 -5
WAS -12 3850 1852 -15 -2 -14
PIT -14 4004 1939 -19 0 -18
CLE -17 3971 1895 -22 -2 -20
DET -18 3848 1837 -23 -2 -21
LAN -18 3807 1814 -23 -4 -18
CHA -23 3951 1904 -30 0 -30
HOU -24 3904 1844 -30 -5 -25
SEA -38 3962 1901 -48 -6 -42
CIN -56 3910 1918 -72 -7 -66
MIL -63 3750 1819 -80 -10 -70
TBA -72 3768 1867 -93 -10 -83
FLO -109 3924 1914 -140 -17 -124
Florida winds up on the bottom by virtue of their primary defenders at all four primary doing extremely poorly.
Name POS Team Balls SFR
Aaron Boone 3 FLO 178 -6
Mike Jacobs 3 FLO 411 -14
Miguel Cabrera 5 FLO 735 -16
Hanley Ramirez 6 FLO 1046 -25
Dan Uggla 4 FLO 981 -37
It was a similar story for the Brewers...
Name POS Team Balls SFR
J.J. Hardy 6 MIL 973 -11
Prince Fielder 3 MIL 581 -13
Rickie Weeks 4 MIL 680 -24
Ryan Braun 5 MIL 520 -40
While Tampa Bay spread the love...
Name POS Team Balls SFR
Josh Wilson 4 TBA 157 -4
Akinori Iwamura 5 TBA 553 -4
Brendan Harris 4 TBA 257 -4
Ty Wigginton 3 TBA 61 -6
Ty Wigginton 4 TBA 235 -7
Ben Zobrist 6 TBA 175 -8
Josh Wilson 6 TBA 301 -13
Brendan Harris 6 TBA 580 -21
The Rockies did well in three of the four positions and claimed the top spot...
Name POS Team Balls SFR
Kazuo Matsui 4 COL 615 28
Troy Tulowitzki 6 COL 1180 25
Todd Helton 3 COL 609 13
Ian Stewart 5 COL 29 5
Jamey Carroll 4 COL 331 3
Garrett Atkins 5 COL 678 -12
Thursday, March 08, 2007
Team Running - Florida Marlins
Today we'll take a look at the Florida Marlins running game to compliment the Hope and Faith piece Christina Kahrl wrote for BP today.
From an overall perspective the Marlins finished 16th in baseball at -7.09 runs. When EqSBR is taken out of the equation they finish second behind the Angels at +8.88 runs since they finished dead last at -15.98 in EqSBR. As you can see from the table below the reason for their poor showing was the combination of Wes Helms, Dan Uggla, Reggie Abercrombie, Miguel Cabrera, and Alfredo Amezaga who accounted for -12.76 and recorded 37 stolen bases, 33 caught stealing, and were picked off 4 times for good measure. 
On the other hand Hanley Ramirez (pictured left) placed second overall at +8.89 runs just behind Chone Figgins of the Angels. I've mentioned before that in the games I personally saw Ramirez play I saw hime twice stretch singles into doubles as outfielders lazily retrieved ground balls. Meanwhile Josh Willingham took the distinction as the worst baserunner of 2006 in The 2007 Bill James Handbook but in these metrics placed 659th out of 666 players at -4.72 runs. I published a critique of the James methodology in a column late last year. Essentially the James system doesn't take into account as much context as these metrics do by considering the fielder who fielded the ball and the number of outs as well as other baserunners. However, James does include some additional categories that I had not considered. Advancing on wild pitches and passed balls and perhaps even balks are categories that should be included in a total measure of baserunning. This is the flip side of the excellent work done by Sean Forman on catchers. They were omitted from the metrics I developed but will be included in the future. However, I'm a little hesitant to include advancing on defensive indifference. While it probably is correlated with speed and therefore baserunning, the value of advancing in those scenarios is so questionable, and the opportunities to do so coupled with the difficulty of judging when a runner is in such a situation add it up to my conclusion that including those occasions makes little sense.
Equivalent Stolen Base Runs
Name Team SB PO CS EqSBR
Hanley Ramirez FLO 51 0 15 1.45
Mike Jacobs FLO 3 0 0 0.53
Jeremy Hermida FLO 4 0 1 0.20
Robert Andino FLO 1 0 0 0.15
Jason Wood FLO 1 0 0 0.10
Cody Ross FLO 0 0 1 -0.24
Matt Treanor FLO 0 0 1 -0.24
Eric Reed FLO 3 1 1 -0.38
Chris Aguila FLO 1 0 1 -0.74
Anibal Sanchez FLO 0 1 0 -0.84
Joe Borchard FLO 0 0 2 -0.87
Miguel Olivo FLO 2 0 3 -1.04
Josh Willingham FLO 2 3 0 -1.31
Wes Helms FLO 0 0 4 -1.96
Dan Uggla FLO 6 1 6 -2.60
Reggie AbercrombieFLO 6 2 5 -2.69
Miguel Cabrera FLO 6 0 6 -2.70
Alfredo Amezaga FLO 19 1 12 -2.82
Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs
Name Team Opp OA ExHAR EqHAR HARate
Dan Uggla FLO 46 1 6.67 2.82 142
Hanley Ramirez FLO 50 0 8.74 2.78 132
Alfredo Amezaga FLO 22 0 5.08 2.08 141
Jeremy Hermida FLO 21 0 2.26 1.54 168
Reggie AbercrombieFLO 26 0 5.89 1.23 121
Eric Reed FLO 3 0 1.05 0.48 145
Scott Olsen FLO 1 0 0.32 0.46 242
Chris Aguila FLO 6 0 0.32 0.20 163
Brian Moehler FLO 1 0 0.02 -0.02 0
Sergio Mitre FLO 1 0 0.02 -0.02 0
Josh Johnson FLO 1 0 0.03 -0.03 0
Yusmeiro Petit FLO 1 0 0.03 -0.03 0
Miguel Olivo FLO 20 0 4.43 -0.03 99
Anibal Sanchez FLO 1 0 0.04 -0.04 0
Matt Cepicky FLO 1 0 0.05 -0.05 0
Dontrelle Willis FLO 9 0 0.56 -0.12 79
Joe Borchard FLO 15 0 1.00 -0.17 83
Miguel Cabrera FLO 75 1 15.22 -0.21 99
Matt Treanor FLO 6 0 0.65 -0.21 68
Wes Helms FLO 9 0 2.03 -0.27 86
Cody Ross FLO 16 1 2.14 -0.65 70
Mike Jacobs FLO 42 1 3.60 -0.75 79
Ricky Nolasco FLO 3 0 1.16 -1.16 0
Josh Willingham FLO 26 2 2.61 -2.61 0
Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs
Name Team Opp ExGAR EqGAR GARate
Hanley Ramirez FLO 44 5.06 3.08 1.61
Alfredo Amezaga FLO 35 2.08 0.87 1.42
Joe Borchard FLO 12 0.63 0.67 2.06
Miguel Cabrera FLO 28 1.68 0.46 1.27
Reggie AbercrombieFLO 18 1.14 0.29 1.26
Dontrelle Willis FLO 2 0.05 0.25 5.70
Matt Treanor FLO 12 1.32 0.21 1.16
Cody Ross FLO 10 0.49 0.12 1.24
Miguel Olivo FLO 35 2.73 0.08 1.03
Scott Olsen FLO 2 0.20 0.06 1.32
Paul Hoover FLO 1 0.01 -0.01 0.00
Anibal Sanchez FLO 1 0.01 -0.01 0.00
Jeremy Hermida FLO 18 0.95 -0.01 0.99
Jason Vargas FLO 1 0.02 -0.02 0.00
Jose Garcia FLO 1 0.03 -0.03 0.00
Dan Uggla FLO 25 1.43 -0.03 0.98
Ricky Nolasco FLO 2 0.05 -0.05 0.00
Chris Aguila FLO 3 0.32 -0.06 0.83
Mike Jacobs FLO 12 0.31 -0.08 0.73
Robert Andino FLO 1 0.13 -0.13 0.00
Eric Reed FLO 4 0.36 -0.17 0.52
Josh Willingham FLO 14 0.83 -0.48 0.42
Wes Helms FLO 16 1.35 -0.92 0.32
Equivalent Air Advancement Runs
Name Team Opps ExAAR EqAAR AARate
Hanley Ramirez FLO 26 4.08 1.57 1.38
Dan Uggla FLO 27 2.65 0.95 1.36
Cody Ross FLO 8 1.31 0.43 1.33
Miguel Olivo FLO 7 0.65 0.41 1.63
Mike Jacobs FLO 13 1.53 0.35 1.23
Anibal Sanchez FLO 1 0.54 0.20 1.38
Ricky Nolasco FLO 2 0.47 0.19 1.41
Chris Aguila FLO 3 0.60 0.15 1.24
Robert Andino FLO 2 -0.01 0.01 0.00
Dontrelle Willis FLO 2 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brian Moehler FLO 1 0.00 0.00 0.00
Josh Johnson FLO 1 0.01 -0.01 0.00
Alfredo Amezaga FLO 10 1.26 -0.06 0.96
Eric Reed FLO 2 0.08 -0.08 0.00
Joe Borchard FLO 8 1.44 -0.08 0.94
Miguel Cabrera FLO 42 4.12 -0.18 0.96
Reggie AbercrombieFLO 9 1.89 -0.18 0.91
Josh Willingham FLO 14 1.05 -0.31 0.70
Matt Treanor FLO 6 0.67 -0.67 0.00
Wes Helms FLO 14 1.33 -1.33 0.00
Jeremy Hermida FLO 14 2.50 -1.71 0.32
Kelly Shoppach CLE 5 0.49 -1.09 -1.21
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