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Saturday, September 20, 2008

As Time Goes By

Today we'll run another tidbit from the errata of It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book...




During which decade did baseball fans enjoy the best pennant races? Bill James, in The New Bill James Historical Abstract says unequivocally that the 1940s was "The Best Decade Ever for Pennant Races". Our compilation of Race Score by decade agrees.


Decade Aggregate Races Avg
1900s 375.5 12 31.3
1910s 234.9 9 26.1
1920s 423.6 12 35.3
1930s 226.1 13 17.4
1940s 390.9 11 35.5
1950s 371.5 12 31.0
1960s 385.1 12 32.1
1970s 310.0 17 18.2
1980s 354.1 20 17.7
1990s 247.0 16 15.4
2000s 431.5 27 16.0


The 1940s pulled out the highest average Race Score although the 1920s came in a close second and actually included one more race. Interestingly, the 1930s included 13 races, the highest percentage at 65% of any decade, and nine of those were in the NL with only 1931 excluded. However, many of the races were only marginal with the 1934 NL race won by the Cardinals on the strength of a 33-12 record down the stretch taking the highest score at 29.9 and ranking 43rd.

James ranks the races of the 1940s and so here is his list alongside our ranking.


James Year Lg Score Rank Teams Winner
1 1940 AL 46.0 16 3 Detroit Tigers (90-64)
2 1944 AL 21.0 80 2 St. Louis Browns (89-65)
3 1948 AL 72.0 3 3 Cleveland Indians (97-58)
4 1946 NL 32.9 35 2 St. Louis Cardinals (98-58)
5 1949 NL 37.0 30 2 Brooklyn Dodgers (97-57)
6 1949 AL 37.0 29 2 New York Yankees (97-57)
7 1942 NL 50.9 15 2 St. Louis Cardinals (106-48)
8 1941 NL 36.5 31 2 Brooklyn Dodgers (100-54)
9 1945 AL 18.0 86 2 Detroit Tigers (88-65)
10 1945 NL 29.9 43 2 Chicago Cubs (98-56)
1947 NL 9.8 2 Brooklyn Dodgers (94-60)


The only race from the 1940s that James doesn't include is the 1947 NL race which ranks 121st on our list in which the Dodgers overcame the Braves at midseason and held off the Cardinals, winning by a margin of five games. As James notes, the NL races of the 1940s were dominated by the Dodgers and Cardinals while in the AL the races were more diverse.

This compilation by decade also reinforces the notion that modern races garner lower race scores overall as not only the average Race Score has declined but also the number of races that have positive scores has fallen from around 57% before divisional play to 44% after.

But since our Race Score gives extra weight to races with multiple teams with good records, this trend can also be attributed to an increasing competitive balance over time. As shown in the graph below for the AL from 1901-2005, the standard deviation in winning percentage has noticeably declined over time (albeit with a number of bumps along the way and a small upturn in the past five years) as the dotted linear trend line indicates. As more teams are bunched closer together, it is statistically less likely that two or more teams will break away from the pack and therefore score very highly in the Race Score metric.



Just why competitive balance has generally increased with time is another story. The most accepted notion, popularized by the late paleontologist and baseball fan Stephen Jay Gould in the context of the disappearance of the .400 hitter , wrests upon two pillars. First, as knowledge about how to play the game has improved and become standardized it has become more difficult for players and hence teams to take advantage of their less skilled competitors. Second, the general level of play has increased due to better athletes produced through a larger population from which the best players are chosen, better diet and training, and better technology, all of which moves the game closer to the limits of human ability providing less space for variation. In the end that leaves great players and great teams, in Gould's words*, less "space for taking advantage of the suboptimality of others".


* The 1996 book Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin by Stephen Jay Gould contains an extended discussion of Gould's argument. Also see my column "Schrodinger's Bat: The Myth of the Golden Age".

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

The Wheel of Change

With the firing of Ned Yost yesterday with less than two weeks to go in the regular season, I thought it would be interesting to continue the errata from It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book with this tidbit on managerial changes and pennant winners.



After dropping a 4-2 contest to Brooklyn at Ebbets Field on Tuesday August 2nd 1932, the Cubs under manager Rogers Hornsby were sitting at 53-46 in second place staring up at the Pirates who held a 5-game lead. As in his three previous managerial jobs Hornsby rubbed the powers that be the wrong way and William Veeck (father of the more famous Bill Veeck) ousted him and his $8,000 per month salary "for the best interests of the club" as the Cubs traveled on to Philadelphia. In his place he ensconced first baseman Charlie Grimm. After an off-day the team beat the Phillies 12-1 with the Pirates dropping a doubleheader to the Dodgers to shrink the lead to three and a half games. Under Grimm the Cubs went a sizzling 37-18 the rest of the way including a 14-game winning streak from the 20th of August through the 3rd of September. The Pirates meanwhile struggled to a 27-26 finish thereby propelling the Cubs to the pennant by a comfortable 4-game margin and coming in 132nd in our rankings.

The distinction of the 1932 season was that it was the first time in the modern era that a team changed managers in mid season and went on to win the pennant. Perhaps inspired by the move owner P.K. Wrigley in 1938, with his team in third place with a record of 45-36 5.5 games out, fired Grimm at the end of July and replaced him with catcher Gaby Hartnett. In no small part the hiring of Grimm as the needed sparkplug was based on the results of a study performed by a University of Illinois professor Wrigley hired to psychoanalyze the team. While team chemistry is often derided, perhaps the professor was onto something. Down the stretch the Cubs posted a 44-27 record including a 10-game winning streak from September 22-28. And of course famously it was manager Hartnett who homered in the bottom of the ninth on September 28th with darkness threatening to give the Cubs a 6-5 win over the Pirates and the league lead which they would not relinquish. That 1938 race ranked 70th in our list and so in the span of six years the Cubs had twice replaced their manager well into the season and both times it paid dividends.

Although these first two occurrences were wildly successful, it would take another 40 years and the advent of divisional play before the fateful summer of 1978 would see a similar occurrence. With the Yankees sitting at 52-43 in fourth place and behind the Red Sox by 10.5 games on the morning of July 25th, Bob Lemon would replace Billy Martin (Dick Howser managed one game in the interim) who resigned after disparaging comments referencing star Reggie Jackson and owner George Steinbrenner. Lemon is credited with calming the stormy sea and the team went on a 47-20 tear to tie for the AL East title and then…well, the rest as they say is history.

It wasn't long after, that three teams in the fateful summer of 1981 would make the post season after having made a managerial change.

  • The Kansas City Royals slumped badly in the first half after their 1980 World Series appearance posting a 20-30 record under manager Jim Frey. After opening the second half 10-10 Frey was dismissed in favor of Dick Howser and the Royals went 20-13 the rest of the way winning the second half Western Division title.


  • The Montreal Expos were in a similar situation posting a 30-25 record in the first half under Dick Williams. A 14-12 record to begin the second half led to his ouster and replacement by Jim Fanning who guided the team to a 16-11 finish and the Expos only post season appearance.


  • The Yankees led by Gene Michael won the AL East first half title with a record of 34-22. However, a 14-12 start to the second half led to Michael's replacement by the miracle worker of 1978, Bob Lemon. This time though, the Yanks did not respond and went 11-14 the rest of the way before picking themselves back up and beating the Brewers and the A's enroute to the World Series. This was the only time in history that a post season team's replacement manager had a worse record than the manager being replaced.


  • But none of these were, statistically speaking anyway, the biggest turnarounds correlated with managerial changes by post season teams. That honor goes to the 1989 Toronto Blue Jays. After enduring a 12-24 (.333) start under Jimmy Williams, General Manager Pat Gillick hired Cito Gaston on May 31st as the interim manager. That interim title was quickly forgotten as the Jays reeled off a 77-49 (.611) record with the help of acquisitions Lee Mazzilli and Mookie Wilson from the Mets leading to a 20-9 August that saw them pull into a first place tie with the surprising Orioles as the month closed. After holding a slim lead most of the month of September, the Jays hooked up with the Orioles in a three game series at the new Sky Dome (opened in June and host to a new Major League attendance record of almost 3.4 million fans) on the season's final weekend with the Orioles one game back. The Blue Jays took the first two games of the series 2-1 and 4-3 to seal the deal and come in 129th in our rankings. The difference in winning percentage after the managerial change of .278 was the largest in history by a wide margin.

    All of the races already mentioned and a few more where post season teams have made managerial moves are shown in the table below and sorted by change in winning percentage.


    Year Team Lg Manager W L Pct Replaced By W L Pct Change
    1989 Toronto AL Jimmy Williams 12 24 0.333 Cito Gaston 77 49 0.611 0.278
    2003 Florida NL Jeff Torborg 16 22 0.421 Jack McKeon 75 49 0.605 0.184
    1981 Kansas City AL Jim Frey 30 40 0.429 Dick Howser 20 13 0.606 0.177
    1978 New York AL Billy Martin 52 43 0.547 Bob Lemon 48 20 0.706 0.159
    2004 Houston NL Jimmy Williams 44 44 0.500 Phil Garner 48 26 0.649 0.149
    1932 Chicago NL Rogers Hornsby 53 46 0.535 Charlie Grimm 37 18 0.673 0.137
    1982 Milwaukee AL Buck Rodgers 23 24 0.489 Harvey Kuenn 72 43 0.626 0.137
    1983 PhiladelphiaNL Pat Corrales 43 42 0.506 Paul Owens 47 30 0.610 0.105
    1988 Boston AL John McNamara 43 42 0.506 Joe Morgan 46 31 0.597 0.092
    1938 Chicago NL Charlie Grimm 45 36 0.556 Gabby Hartnett 44 27 0.620 0.064
    1981 Montreal NL Dick Williams 44 37 0.543 Jim Fanning 16 11 0.593 0.049
    1996 Los Angeles NL Tommy Lasorda 41 35 0.539 Bill Russell 49 37 0.570 0.030
    1981 New York AL Gene Michael 48 34 0.585 Bob Lemon 11 14 0.440 -0.145


    A few notes:

  • Fifteen years after his replacement by Gaston, Jimmy Williams was once again shoved aside in favor of Phil Garner who led the Astros to a playoff appearance in 2004 making Williams the only manager to capture such a "distinction".


  • "Trader Jack" McKeon captures the second biggest turnaround with the Marlins 75-49 finish on the way to their second World Championship. McKeon was no stranger to big turnarounds. On May 23, 1978 the A's were leading the AL West by two games with a record of 24-15 when manager Bobby Winkles, deciding he'd had enough of Charlie Finley, stepped down. McKeon replaced Winkles, who ironically had replaced him the previous season, and the A's went on to post a 45-78 record good for the largest drop in winning percentage after a managerial change at -.250.


  • The replacement in 1982 of Buck Rodgers by Harvey Kuenn was told in colorful detail by Daniel Okrent in his classic 9 Innings. Mike Caldwell, Ted Simmons, and Rollie Fingers were among the most vocal of Rodgers critics. In fact, a public tirade by Fingers after he wasn't brought in against a lefty in the ninth inning of a May 31st loss sealed the coffin.


  • From an analysts perspective the thing to note is that except in the cases of the first three teams listed in the table, all the rest were respectable to good teams who simply played better once their new managers were in place. The aggregate winning percentage of these thirteen before the change was .512 while after it skyrocketed to .616. In other words, these teams were already in a position to succeed.

    Aside from these teams there have been 276 others since 1900 (not counting the 1961-62 Cubs whose famous "college of coaches" experiment failed) that have employed multiple managers (with the 1937 Tigers and 1968 White Sox employing five managers each). Obviously the vast majority of managerial changes engender no such turnaround. Even so, considering only the 52 teams who already had a .500 record or greater when their first manager was replaced, we find that roughly 20% (13 of the now 65) of the teams equipped to win, went on to post season play after changing managers. Most front offices would take those odds. Knowing when to pull the trigger, on the other hand, is the tough part.

    Friday, August 08, 2008

    The More and the Less the Merrier

    This is a continuation of the serialization of "The Great Pennant Race Abstract" from the book It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book.



    One of the three components of our methodology in ranking the races is to consider the number of teams involved. Obviously more teams typically leads both to more fan interest across the country as well as heightened drama.

    But what about the greatest two team race? That distinction belongs to the 1942 NL race won by the St. Louis Cardinals. The reason that race scores so highly is because it was so close, being decided by just two games, and both teams easily topped 100 wins with the Cards winning 106 and the Dodgers 104. There was also plenty of drama for good measure. On the morning of August 16th it was the Dodgers, featuring a pair of 23 year olds in Pee Wee Reese and Pete Resier, who held a nine and half game lead over the Cardinals. But the Branch Rickey built Cards, and second youngest team in the league with contributions from rookies Stan Musial in left field and Johnny Beazley on the mound, would go on to win 35 of 41 games and 12 of their final 13 while the Dodgers finished 25-17 to take the pennant and eventually the World Series over the Yankees in five games.

    That great Cardinal team, then nicknamed the "St. Louis Swifties", was also interesting in that they led the league in runs scored (4.84 per game, a fact that is often forgotten), batting average, on base percentage, and even slugging percentage despite hitting just 60 homeruns finishing sixth in the eight team league. To make up for their lack of homerun power which saw their infielders hit just 9, the team slugged 69 triples and 282 doubles both of which led the league. Enos Slaughter racked up 17 triples and 31 doubles while 6'2" second sacker Marty Marion hit 38 doubles. Sportsman's Park certainly played as a hitter's park but they also led the league in fewest runs allowed (3.09 per game) by a wide margin led by MVP Mort Cooper who twirled 10 shutouts on his way to 22 wins.

    On the other side of the coin the only five team race among the 165 that had positive Race Scores was the 1988 AL East race which ranked 23rd and was won by the Red Sox with a record of 89-73 with the five teams finishing within 3.5 games. This race scored highly despite the victor only garnering 89 wins in part because of the 30% bonus awarded to a five team race.


    Team Name G W L PCT GB RS RA
    Boston Red Sox 162 89 73 0.549 - 813 689
    Detroit Tigers 162 88 74 0.543 1 703 658
    Milwaukee Brewers 162 87 75 0.537 2 682 616
    Toronto Blue Jays 162 87 75 0.537 2 763 680
    New York Yankees 161 85 76 0.528 3.5 772 748
    Cleveland Indians 162 78 84 0.481 11 666 731
    Baltimore Orioles 161 54 107 0.335 34.5 550 789


    The Orioles were out of the race early as losers of their first 21 games shattering the previous record of 13 and the Indians, while briefly in first place in April, soon turned mediocre. It was the Yankees and Tigers who then got hot and occupied the top two spots, 6 games in front of the rest of the pack as July dawned. Over the All-Star break the Red Sox, with a record of 43-42, fired manager John McNamara and promoted coach Joe Morgan (more on managerial changes below). The Sox then started the second half with a 12-game winning streak, picked up Mike Boddicker at the trading deadline to fill out the rotation, and pulled into a tie with the Tigers on September 3rd. From there they built a five game lead by September 23st but then promptly lost seven of their last nine and just barely holding on.

    The Tigers were by then the oldest team in the league (more on old teams below) and their offense faded down the stretch as did the Yankees pitching, which was second worst in the league only to Baltimore. The Yankees had a managerial change of their own when Billy Martin, returning to the job for the fifth and final time, was fired in late June when the Yankees slipped from first.

    What Have You Done For Me Lately

    This is a continuation of the serialization of "The Great Pennant Race Abstract" from the book It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book.



    Many readers will be interested in which pennant races in the last few years rank the highest and so here are the top 10 races since the dawn of the new millennium.


    Rank Year Lg Div Score Teams Winner
    1 2007 NL West 32.7 3 Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72)
    2 2004 AL West 31.8 3 Anaheim Angels (92-70)
    3 2002 NL West 30.0 3 Arizona Diamondbacks (98-64)
    4 2005 AL East 28.0 2 New York Yankees (95-67)
    5 2004 AL East 27.9 2 New York Yankees (101-61)
    6 2006 AL Central 27.0 2 Minnesota Twins (96-66)
    7 2002 AL West 26.2 2 Oakland Athletics (103-59)
    8 2000 NL East 25.0 2 Atlanta Braves (95-67)
    9 2001 NL Central 24.0 2 Houston Astros/St. Louis Cardinals (93-69)
    10 2007 AL East 22.9 2 Boston Red Sox (96-66)

    The most recent race to make the list is of course the excellent 2007 NL West race between the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Rockies thanks to the improbable heroics of the Rox. But just two years ago, the 2006 AL Central race was very tight as the Tigers, after leading the division for almost the entire season, were passed by the Twins on the season's final day as the Tigers fell in twelve innings to the lowly Royals as the Twins beat the White Sox.

    The 2004 AL West race takes the second spot and the 38th overall as the Anaheim Angels finished one game in front of the A's and three games ahead of the Rangers. The Angels took matters into their own hands by beating the Rangers three out of four and the A's four out of six to close the season. Although the Diamondbacks in the 2002 NL West race were in sole possession of first place after July 15th, the race scores well since it tightened in the final week before Arizona swept a 4-game series with the Rockies to end the season and win by just 2.5 games over the Giants.

    The unbalanced schedule since the introduction of divisional play coupled with the fewer number of teams per division - especially since 1995 and the addition of two more divisions - makes it a bit more difficult for modern races to rack up really high Race Scores. When you consider that 176 of the 312 races occurred since the inception of divisional play in 1969, and yet only 12 of the top 50 races but 28 of the next 50 are from this period, you can see how the calculation of the Race Score favors the past. Traditionalists will no doubt agree that this is the way it ought to be.

    Saturday, July 12, 2008

    Rookie Reporter Showdown


    Given that I think all of us have at one time or another thought that we could call a game better than this or that announcer, I thought this contest was interesting. Gillette is offering fans the chance to join the MLB.com broadcasting team during the 2008 World Series.

    To enter you have to go to the site linked above and upload a video that proves you're better than they are. Gillette will then choose 48 finalists from across the country to compete in a series of "reporter" challenges hosted by ESPN baseball reporter Erin Andrews that will air during live local MLB telecasts. Viewers are then asked to vote for their favorite to decide who will be the Rookie Reporter. Good Luck!

    Monday, July 07, 2008

    Dr. Stat Attacks!

    Very funny stuff from Joe Posnanski. When I was at Tropicana last year they had no such cartoon but given the atmosphere they're trying to create there and the ginormous video screen that dominates the venue, it doesn't surprise me.

    Saturday, July 05, 2008

    Summit!

    In an ongoing effort to wear oursevles out completely before we move to Pittsburgh, my 12-year old daughter Laura and I ascended (and descended) Pike's Peak today.

    We were up at 4:30 armed with breakfast courtesy of my lovely wife and our backpacks loaded with great snacks and headed out to a place called The Crags campground which is on the back of the mountain at an elevation of around 10,000 feet. We disembarked and were on the trail at 5:50AM.

    After hiking a couple miles through the forest you come out just below the tree line and then after a series of switchbacks have to ascend almost straight up the bluff to reach the saddle at just below 13,000 feet. That stretch was particularly trying for us and we had to stop frequently and used up a good portion of our water.

    Once we got to the saddle the hiking was easier and our spirits were better as evidenced by this photo where Laura shows the way to the summit:




    However, after crossing the road used by a gazillion tourists on this day and paralleling the road for a long ways, we came to the final boulder field to ascend the last 500 feet to the summit. We got off the trail a little and although our route was shorter it was not easy and by the time we reached the summit just before 11AM we were both spent. But still, we had to stand in line for about 10 minutes to get the obligatory picture taken (the walking stick isn't just for show, I needed it to hold myself up :)

    After the photo we had our lunch in the gift shop and hung around for about an hour drinking as much water as we could and digesting. We headed back at noon (kind of hoping someone in a truck or SUV would ask if we wanted a ride part way down to where the trail intersected the road) and although it was easier and faster going down, our calves and ankles got very sore from navigating the rocks and trying to avoid slipping (it rained starting about 3/4 of the way down). Anyway, we were back at the car at 4:30 and are now immovable in front of the TV and computer for the remainder of the evening. All told it was about a 12 mile hike and although we had gone on a few hikes in the preceding weeks, they were nowhere close to as long.

    It was harder than we both thought and I was so proud of Laura for sticking it out when early on she was having some trouble. She was quite a trooper and of course just spending the time with her was a treat.

    Friday, July 04, 2008

    Like Peas in a Pod

    More outtakes from The Great Pennant Race Abstract...



    The 1950 NL race (ranked 54th) is certainly the more famous of the two races in 1950. That season the Phillies jumped out to a big lead and still held leads of 9 game lead over the Dodgers and 7.5 games over the Boston Braves as late as the morning of September 19th. The Dodgers roared back winning 13 of 16 while the Phiilies won just 3 of 12 to put the Dodgers one game back with one to play on October 1st. Tied at one into the tenth, Dick Sisler hit a three-run homer off of a tiring Don Newcombe (Sisler hit Newcombe's 127th pitch of the afternoon) to defeat Brooklyn 4-1 and finally secure the pennant for the Phillies.

    As great as that race was, the AL race of 1950 takes the second spot in our rankings. This is the case since the Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox, and Indians were all very good teams and all in the race at the beginning of September. All four teams would win 92 or more games and finish within six games of each other. The Yankees were helped by bringing up rookie southpaw Whitey Ford in late June (9-1, 2.81 ERA in 112 IP) with Joe DiMaggio making a late season comeback. By contrast the Tigers were hurt by the injury to Virgil Trucks and the Red Sox by the fractured elbow of Ted Williams sustained in the All-Star game while the Indians were swept in a September series by the lowly St. Louis Browns to knock them out of the race.

    As with 1950, the 1964 NL race (Race #5 ranked 7th) is the more famous of the two races for that season but the 1964 AL race ranks just above it at number six. That race featured three teams with 97 or more wins including the Yankees (their last pennant until 1977), White Sox, and Orioles all of whom finished within two games of one another.

    1964 was Yogi Berra's lone season as Yankee skipper in the 1960s (he would also manage the team in 1984 and the beginning of 1985) and the Bronx Bombers found themselves un-customarily struggling, four and half games out on August 29th and trailing both the Sox and Orioles. Then they caught fire. Most attribute the turnaround of the Yanks to the famous "harmonica incident" where utility infielder Phil Linz, "assisted" by Mickey Mantle, was reprimanded and fined by Berra for playing the harmonica on the team bus following a four game sweep at the hands of the White Sox on August 20th. While that makes for a good story, it should be noted that following the incident the Yanks immediately dropped two games to the Red Sox and won just 7 of their next 13 before reeling off 23 wins in their final 30 games (and an 11-game winning streak from September 16-26) to finish a game ahead of the White Sox and take the pennant*. No, the turnaround can more likely be attributed to the recall of Mel Stottlemeyre in August who would go on to win 9 games, and the purchase of Pedro Ramos from the Indians to shore up the bullpen on September 5th who would pitch 21.7 innings giving up 13 hits while striking out 21 and walking not a batter down the stretch.

    The natural corollary to the stories of 1950 and 1964 is to rank the years with the greatest total Race Scores and so here are the top 20 seasons where it could be argued that baseball fans enjoyed the best pennant races.


    Rank Year Races Score
    1 1908 2 142.7
    2 1964 2 132.7
    3 1950 2 104.8
    4 1928 2 90.2
    5 1915 2 84.0
    6 1980 3 79.8
    7 1916 2 78.8
    8 1977 2 78.4
    9 1924 2 76.7
    10 2004 3 76.5
    11 1962 2 76.3
    12 1985 4 75.1
    13 1949 2 74.0
    14 1948 1 72.0
    15 1920 1 71.2
    16 1978 3 71.2
    17 1982 4 70.8
    18 2007 4 69.4
    19 1993 2 62.9
    20 1909 2 62.2


    Special mention should be made here of 1981 whose eight "races" totaled a score of 71.2 which would have tied for 17th place. The first half races scored a 41.5 while the second half was at 29.7. The best of those was the first half AL West which placed 101st overall and which saw the A's finish 1.5 games ahead of the Rangers and two and half over the White Sox. Of course, neither the fans nor the players understood that the games completed before the strike would have such consequences on the postseason and so it is difficult to construe these as true races.

    1908 takes the top spot as the less famous AL race takes 13th in our rankings. Detroit, Cleveland, and Chicago battled it out and finished within a game and half of each other. The Naps (as the franchise was then known in honor of their player-manager Nap LaJoie) won 16 of 18 to edge in front of Detroit in late September punctuated by Addie Joss's perfect game on October 2nd against the White Sox whose hurler Ed Walsh himself struck out 15. The Tigers, however, would take the pennant by a half game on the final day with a win over Chicago. A controversy ensued because the Tigers were not required to make up a rainout causing the powers that be to establish a new rule requiring all ties and rainouts affecting a pennant race to be replayed.

    Well, sort of.

    The 1938 season was interrupted for several days in the wake of the strongest hurricane to hit New England in recorded history and that took an estimated 600 lives. Perhaps coincidentally or perhaps not, after play resumed on September 22nd the Cubs went on to win ten in a row on their way to the NL pennant (discussed below). What is not coincidental, however, is that on September 18th the approaching hurricane caused both the Cubs and Pirates to play tie games. Due to the hurricane the games were not able to be replayed and under the rules of the time the games were not allowed to be played after the last scheduled game of the season. The rule was changed in 1951 in the AL and 1955 in the NL making 1938 the last season in which un-played games affected the outcome of a race.

    Of interest here as well is the 1915 season in which the Federal League race (ranked 21st) edges out the AL race (ranked 22nd) 42.5 to 41.5 but that together rate the season as the 5th best. In the AL the Red Sox won 101 games by the pitching prowess of Babe Ruth and Smokey Joe Wood and edged out the Tigers by 2.5 games who themselves won 100 times. But in the Federal League something happened that had never happened before and didn't happen again until 2001 – the two teams at the top finished in a tie by the traditional method of measuring games behind.


    Team Name G W L T PCT GB RS RA
    Chicago Whales 155 86 66 3 0.5658 - 640 538
    St. Louis Terriers 159 87 67 5 0.5649 - 633 527
    Pittsburgh Rebels 156 86 67 3 0.5621 0.5 592 524


    The Whales, led by player-manager by Joe Tinker, edged out the St. Louis Terriers and aging star pitcher Eddie Plank by .0009 as the winner was decided on percentage points since the league did not have a rule for the playing of tie breakers. 1915 was the second and final season of the Federal League as a settlement ensued whereby the Federal League owners of the Chicago and St. Louis franchises purchased the Cubs and Browns with the happy result that what would become Wrigley Field was brought into the NL.

    In 2001 the NL Central (ranked 67th) duplicated the feat of the Federal League when the Astros and Cardinals finished with identical 93-69 records. Of course, the addition of the Wild Card in 1995 has typically made the playing of tie breakers unnecessary although of course the tie-breaker between the Rockies and Padres last season for the Wild Card was a great end to a season which saw that 2007 NL West battle rank 36th (32.7). That unhappy result was duplicated in both the 2005 AL East (ranked 51st) and the 2006 NL West (ranked 107th).

    Since divisional play began in 1969 the best overall set of races can be said to be 1985 where all four races earned Race Scores greater than zero. In particular the AL East (ranked 45th) and the NL East (ranked 53rd) were excellent. In the AL East the Blue Jays, led by their outfield of Jesse Barfield, Lloyd Moseby, and George Bell, captured their first flag winning 99 games and edging out the Yankees by beating them on the season's penultimate day 5-1. The AL West race was no slouch either as the Royals slipped past the Angels by winning three of four head-to-head matchups in the season's final weekend. In the NL East, the Cardinals edged the Mets by three games on the strength of a running attack that featured 314 stolen bases. In a 2005 article yours truly calculated that the version of "Whitey Ball" employed in 1985 contributed just over 30 runs to the Cardinals offense, a total that translates to about three wins and exactly their margin over the Mets.


    * The White Sox eventually finished second on the strength of their pitching and the Orioles third on the performance of MVP Brooks Robinson but both teams were hurt by losses to poor teams down the stretch. The Sox dropped five of seven in one stretch to Washington, Cleveland, and Minnesota and the Orioles split a four game set with Kansas City and two of three to Minnesota in the final weeks.