Wednesday Links

Just a couple of notes for a Wednesday...

Jayson Stark had a nice live blog post on the hearings yesterday for those of use who had to work. Some pretty good perspective I think and in answering questions he brings up a few other issues worth thinking about.

Former BP'er Keith Woolner has a nice bio on the Science Magazine site that goes through his background leading up to his current position as Manager of Baseball Research and Analysis for the Indians. Very cool.

Mike Fast writes a wonderful PITCHf/x primer on MVN that explains what you need to know about f/x in seven easy steps.

Wednesday Links

Here are a couple of things in case you missed them:

The 2007 Scouting Report by the Fans for the Fans - Tango is once again collecting data on fan perception of fielding prowess. It's always great to harness the wisdom of crowds.

Billy Wagner Breakdown - Ok, so he didn't really break down but Will Carroll's recent comments on his "dead arm" inspired me to sift through some PITCHf/x data for Wagner on BP Unfiltered.

Friday Links on 6/29

These Friday links have gotten to be something of a habit but for some reason I don't catch up until Friday and there's always something interesting to pass along.

Racism? - This article over at MVN is titled "Believe it: Racism still in baseball". Unfortunately for the author he doesn't provide any evidence for his argument and instead talks about the fan reactions to Manny Ramirez and Barry Bonds - two players who provoke a lot of reactions not primarily related to their race. However, I did find it interesting that the author, quoting Jayson Stark, noted that "37 percent of black fans think Bonds used steroids, compared to 76 percent of white fans". The implication is that this somehow shows that white fans are racist. Of course it's just as plausible (and perhaps more so since the white population is larger and therefore probably more varied in their views) that black fans on the whole are seeing the issue through racial lenses.

In addition, it can be argued that his other major example of shrinking black participation in the sport is caused by a myriad of others factors (some of which he lists) and not implicit nor explicit racism. The issue of African Americans in leadership positions in baseball is perhaps the only one on which he has a leg to stand. Not having researched the issue I don't really have an opinion. That said, it seems to me that the idea that imposing a quota on interviewing minorities for specific positions is not really the answer.

The main problem with the article is that the title appears to claim something for which the author shows little evidence and so it smacks of an attempt to grab some attention. It worked (I'm sure lots of people read it) but it's not very honest.

Chad Gaudin - In case you missed it, Marc Normadin did his regular player profile feature on A's starter Chad Gaudin. This is a self-serving link since I contributed a sidebar to the piece using the PITCHf/x data but still Marc's attention to detail is always outstanding and you never fail to learn when you read his work.

DePodesta - Interesting article at THT on the status of Paul DePodesta.

The Imbalance of Interleague - Dave Studeman calls for the demise of interleague play..well, almost with a recommendation for paring it down similar to what I threw out last January. John Perrato at BP also runs down the stats division by division as the AL took the 137-115 advantage. A far cry better than last year but still it shows the AL is the stronger of the two leagues in the same way the NL was the stronger in the mid 1960s.

Sammy Sosa Hits 600 - There were several articles like this one in the last couple weeks being less than generous to Sosa. It seems reasonable to me, as with Mark McGwire, to take a bit of a wait and see approach regarding Hall of Fame credentials and celebrating the accomplishments. Clearly (although I have to admit I'm a Cubs fan) there is less, actually bordering on zero, circumstantial or other evidence linking Sosa to steroid use and so in my mind he gets the benefit of the doubt for now. Interestingly, I received a copy of the this great set of DVDs the other day and it has the game where Sosa hit his 61st adn 62nd homeruns in 1998. Haven't watched it yet but it should be interesting.

Friday Links

A few things from this week:

Datacaster - A little article on MLBAM datacaster on Chris Johnson who scores for the Dodgers and Angels.

State of the BABIP - A great overview and state of the research on batting average on balls in play by Derek Jacques.

Changing Course - Joe Sheehan takes a look at the practice of firing managers midseason. I wrote a little about this awhile back in wondering why midseason changes have declined in recent years.

Be that as it may, thirteen times beginning with the 1932 Cubs, teams have changed managers and gone on to post season play. The last time being the 2004 Astros who replaced Jimmy Williams as team stodd at 44-44. Under Phil Garner they went 48-26 the rest of the way. For Williams it was the second time he had been replaced as the skipper of an eventual postseason team. The first, and the largest difference in terms of winning percentage, was the 1989 Blue Jays. After enduring a 12-24 (.333) start under Jimmy Williams, General Manager Pat Gillick hired Cito Gaston on May 31st as the interim manager. That interim title was quickly forgotten as the Jays reeled off a 77-49 (.611) record with the help of acquisitions Lee Mazzilli and Mookie Wilson from the Mets leading to a 20-9 August that saw them pull into a first place tie with the surprising Orioles as the month closed. After holding a slim lead most of the month of September, the Jays hooked up with the Orioles in a three game series at the new Sky Dome on the season's final weekend with the Orioles one game back. The Blue Jays took the first two games of the series 2-1 and 4-3 to seal the deal.

Father's Day Links

Here's a few interesting things on a Father's Day.

Dialing Long Distance - In the Rockies/Devil Rays game here at Coors Field today Carlos Pena his a 452 foot homerun into the third deck in right field (only the right field section has a second or third deck of course). It was the 27th time a homerun had been hit into the 3rd deck and the first time since July 7, 2005 when Todd Helton performed the feat. Johnny Gomes hit two homeruns in the game, the first of which came in the second inning and was a 442 foot shot to left-center. His homerun in the sixth was 415 feet and was a line drive. For the Rockies Matt Holliday hit a 428 foot homerun to into the Rockies bullpen in right-center and Kaz Matsui lofted a 386 foot fly ball down the left field line as well but the longest hit of the afternoon belonged to Brad Hawpe. Hawpe, who hit a grand in last night's ballgame and now has 12 homeruns in his last 27 games putting him in the company of Prince Fielder, Alex Rodriguez, and Gary Sheffield, his a ball of the facing of the third deck in the 8th inning. The blast was 452 feet.

That makes 14 homeruns hit by the two teams in a three-game series that saw the Rockies go unbeaten in their 8th straight series (7-0-1). Does this mean Coors is back to being the homer haven it once was? Here is a graph of the runs scored and homeruns per out at Coors Field historically and up through yesterday's game.



Overall, run scoring is right at the 2005 level while homeruns are closer to 2004. Still, however, we're seeing levels of run scoring in the humidor era reduced from those prior to 2002.

Credentials - This is an interesting article from Tim Marchman in the New York Sun calling for internet writers to be granted credentials. This is certainly a trend that is likely not to be reversed. In the short term, however, it's ironic that overall anyway, blogs probably make it more difficult for baseball writers whose work is published on the internet to obtain the access because the sheer number of nodes make it difficult for teams to determine who is serious and who isn't. The fluid nature of the internet also means there is not a clear line of demarcation sometimes between serious and longer term sites and blogs. Right now teams use the fact that you can print a paper as a proxy for your seriousness and your promise not to abuse the access. Note that readership or quality of the content produced are not criteria, which in large part is what Marchman is arguing. I've always argued that the outsider's perspective is valuable and in one sense getting access would change that. But on balance there is no doubt that with access comes more information and more nuanced writing and that can never be a bad thing.

Defense - David Gassko at THT posts defensive metrics derived from Baseball Info Solution's Zone Rating data. Is it just me or do these numbers look really high (and low)? There's little doubt that the leaders and trailers he lists are the best and worst fielders but the magnitude of the numbers (+20 at first base for Albert Pujols and +24 at third base for David Wright particularly) seem a little excessive. Perhaps I'm not understanding what these are based on and someone can correct me :) Update: See David's comments to this post for an explanation.

A Little Light Reading

Just a few things to chew on...

Interesting article by Paul Swydan on the Rockies use of information technology. There is more in the Rockies magazine that they sell at the ballpark with some excellent photos of the custom software they use.

Interesting quotes from Tony LaRussa on scoring in multiple innings increasing the probability of winning. As Phil points out, however, simply scoring more runs also increases the probability of winning dramatically and so the quesiton is really which is the more fundamental thing to strive for - scoring in multiple innings or putting together an offense that can score more runs in the aggregate. It seems to me that the former is just an effect or outgrowth of the latter.

Here are seven reasons why sabermetrics helps build a better ballgame by Nate Silver.

An excellent and succint analysis of this April's weather and it's impact on run scoring. It's all about the temperature. I'll have more to say about this in my Baseball Prospectus column tomorrow with regards to pitch velocity.

In my last chat I said:

A couple weeks ago I overheard one beat writer mention repeatedly that so-and-so was a "four-A" player indicating that regardless of what he's doing in AAA (this guy has an OPS of 1.25 thus far and a pretty good track record) he'll never make it in the majors. One of the things that performance analysis has revealed is that for the most part there is no magical line between the minors and majors as evidenced by a certain measure of predictability as players cross that threshold. To me, the way we as fans and the industry itself views the minors versus the majors in terms of attention, compensation, media exposure etc. is responsible for that view.

And the so-and-so was...this guy.

I had never seen this before but the British Library has a wonderful way of viewing some of their material. They also have a new beta that uses Microsoft Silverlight.

Wednesday Links

A few interesting links that I was perusing today...

Move Over, Moneyball: Stat nerds are out! Biomechanics nerds are in! Interesting article on Slate.com that talks about the increasing availability of information, in this case video, that is creating a new avenue for fans and analysts alike. Two examples include the articles by Chris Gomez on The Hardball Times and of course Will Carroll's work as found on MLB.com on Dice-K. While there is subjective evaluation here, this is a good example of the power of the "wisdom of crowds" enabled by the forces described in the book Wikinomics - a convergence of the general trends of increasing information technology and an ever-widening communications infrastructure.

No Excuse: Why did NBC air so much evil now? An excellent short argument for why NBC's actions in airing the videos of a madman were without excuse. It seems to me that their obligation was to hand over the material to the authorities, period. But beyond that, as powerful shapers of the public environment in which we all are immersed, they are obligated to take into consideration the effect of airing such material. One would hope their ethics would lead them to decide that the material does not serve the public good and in fact is likely to have deleterious effects by glorifying the act. Sorry so heavy but the post referred to hit a nerve.

Lies, Damned Lies: The Cruelest Month. A great look at the effect of the early season weather on run scoring by Nate Silver. April is indicative but this season there are special considerations.

Going the Other Way. John Walsh at THT wrote one of those articles that leads me to say "why haven't I done this?" Anyway, some mixed results but interesting nonetheless.

Taking a Bat to Prejudice. Great tribute to Jackie Robinson by George Will. Amidst the 60th anniversary celebration there was much made of the fact that the percentage of blacks in the major leagues has fallen steadily to where it is now 8.5% (it was 30% in the mid 1970s). While I agree that this is a problem from the perspective of baseball which should be competing for the best athletes with basketball and football it doesn't seem to be the larger societal problem that some make it out to be. Yes there are issues with economic disparity that may help to bar entry related to the breakdown of the African American family, but the rise of Latin and Asian players and the lure of other sports is probably the more effective cause. As a side note the fact that players from outside the country are not exposed to a shared draft also provides incentives for teams to devote increasing resources to international scouting and player development.