Steals and More Steals

Caleb Peiffer of Baseball Prospectus has a nice article at the New York Sun on stolen bases titled "Steals Have Become More Precise and More Effective" to which I contributed a very small part. Especially interesting are his stats on the Padres recent woeful record of catching opposing baserunners. Good stuff and similar to this piece by The Numbers Guy at the Wall Street Journal online.

Stealing Pays?

Carl Bialik at the Wall Street Journal who authors a column titled "The Numbers Guy" ran an interesting piece on his blog today related to the trend in stolen bases success rates.

Until he called my attention to it I hadn't realized that the success rate in 2007 was over 74% marking the highest it has ever been. In looking into the historical trend I found that three of the four previous highs occurred in 2004-2006 and I produced the graph he shows in the post. Because of its steady increase since the second World War I then ventured that it recorded a systemic change in the game perhaps related to increasing athleticism by baserunners coupled to a smaller degree with refinements in technique and strategy.

For those familiar with the strategic analysis of baserunning you'll notice that the current rate is dangerously close to the oft-repeated claim that 75% is the break even success rate for stolen bases in the big picture (it varies by base, out, and score of course). As a result, using the tenets of game theory, we would expect that as the actual success rate catches up with the break even rate, defenses would be a little more vigilant in protecting against the running game in order to keep the rate close to the break even. Whether they'll be able to do so, however, is dependant to a large degree on the constraints that are inherent in the game. For example, pitching out more often may indeed keep the rate down but at the cost of increasing the productivity of the current batter perhaps making it a wash. Balk rules also constrain attempts by the pitcher to keep the runner close. As a result, if the increase is primarily a result of increasing athleticism on the part of runners outstripping the combined throwing velocity of pitchers and catchers (and their technique), then we might indeed see the rate continue to climb.

Thrown Out in the End

My column today on Baseball Prospectus focused on the unhappy circumstance of Erick Aybar being caught stealing to end two different games this season. It turns out that getting thrown out to end a game has happened 84 times since 1970 (excluding 1999) and so it's not as rare as at least I first thought. I then discuss the strategic calculation in these events from the general and specific Aybar cases.

The second half of the article deals with another demonstration of baseball's version of natural selection in how starting jobs are kept or lost piggy-backing on an article from two weeks ago chronicling the demise of Angel Berroa.

It Takes Two

My column today on Baseball Prospectus revolved around the double steal and tackling questions like how often it's been employed, how successfully, and whether that tracks with what is optimum from a strategic perspective. While there are some issues with the underlying play by play data that make it difficult to count all such attempts, we can get pretty close. One of the tables I left out of that article was the career numbers for the current crop of managers. The following table lists the 30 managers from 2006 and their career numbers on double steals.

Note: A successful double steal is one in which both runners are credited with a stolen base or neither runner is put out.

Name               Years    Succ     Att     Pct  Att/Yr
Ken Macha              4       5       5   1.000     1.3
Terry Francona         6      12      13   0.923     2.2
Mike Scioscia          7      43      48   0.896     6.9
Willie Randolph        2      14      16   0.875     8.0
Charlie Manuel         5      15      18   0.833     3.6
Joe Girardi            1       5       6   0.833     6.0
Sam Perlozzo           2       9      11   0.818     5.5
Ned Yost               4       8      10   0.800     2.5
Jerry Narron           4      20      26   0.769     6.5
Bob Melvin             4      19      25   0.760     6.3
Jim Tracy              6      15      20   0.750     3.3
Phil Garner           13      24      32   0.750     2.5
Tony LaRussa          28     160     219   0.731     7.8
Grady Little           3       5       7   0.714     2.3
Ron Gardenhire         5      22      31   0.710     6.2
Mike Hargrove         14      87     124   0.702     8.9
Felipe Alou           13      56      80   0.700     6.2
Joe Torre             24     111     165   0.673     6.9
Buddy Bell             8      39      58   0.672     7.3
Bruce Bochy           11      51      76   0.671     6.9
Jim Leyland           14      67     101   0.663     7.2
Bobby Cox             24      61      92   0.663     3.8
Clint Hurdle           5       9      14   0.643     2.8
Ozzie Guillen          3       7      11   0.636     3.7
Buck Showalter        10      18      29   0.621     2.9
Dusty Baker           13      27      45   0.600     3.5
John Gibbons           3       7      12   0.583     4.0
Eric Wedge             4       9      17   0.529     4.3
Frank Robinson        16      46      92   0.500     5.8
Joe Maddon             2       3       6   0.500     3.0

In this current crop of managers Mike Scioscia is by far the leader in terms of success and in 2006 was 13 for 13. Both Mike Hargrove and Willie Randolph have called for 8 or more per season and Tony LaRussa is close at 7.8. Lou Pinella wasn't included in this list since he didn't manage in 2006 but historically he is 111 for 160 in his 18 years for a .694 percentage and averaging 8.9 attempts per season. Cubs fans should expect a few double steals in 2006. Let's just hope they come with a few wins as well.

An Historical Look at EqSBR

Last week in my column at Baseball Prospectus I ran down the leaders and trailers in Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR) that I wrote about this summer. Although the name includes the words "stolen base" the measure also encompasses straight pickoffs.

Simply put, the methodology used relies on run expectancy (RE) tables and is more granular than a simple weighting of each stolen base and caught stealing, for example, by considering the base/out state in which the stolen base attempt or pick off occurred. In other words, if a runner steals third with two outs they'll receive less credit than a runner who steals third with one out on the basis that with one out the gain in potential runs outstrips that with two outs since the runner is more likely to score via a sac fly or ground out. Of course, this doesn't take into consideration the game state (score, inning) and for that we would need to use Win Expectancy (WX), but it does reveal something about the stolen base as a general offensive weapon as opposed to only a strategic one. The measure also does not include the backend of double steals.

In addition, the column this week contains the team totals for 2006. San Diego (+2.76), Baltimore (+1.99), Philadelphia (+1.16), and the Mets (+0.61) were the only teams to keep their heads above water while Florida sank to the bottom at -15.98. As as an aside I've updated my Balls in Play Chart (BIPChart) software as discussed on the new and very informative (this author excepted) Unfiltered blog at BP.

While answering a query from Matt Phillip at Fungoes.Net I ran the EqSBR program for all seasons (except 1999) from 1980 through 2006 (the computer chunked away for a little over 4 hours while we were out at my daughter's basketball game and delivering gifts). Listed below are the individual seasons of more than +5.00 followed by those at -4.00 or less. Of the 12,316 individual season totals that were calculated 8,195 or 67% came out less than zero. As you might imagine the top 19 values are from the decade of the 1980s.

Year Name                 Team         Opp      PO      CS   EqSBR
1980 Ron LeFlore          MON          119       3      19   14.37
1980 Willie Wilson        KCA           90       1      10   13.75
1983 Rickey Henderson     OAK          132       5      19   13.71
1984 Tim Raines           MON           85       0      10   13.49
1983 Tim Raines           MON          110       6      14   13.31
1983 Rudy Law             CHA           90       1      12   13.19
1988 Rickey Henderson     NYA          110       4      13   12.34
1986 Vince Coleman        SLN          130       9      14   11.91
1985 Tim Raines           MON           80       1       9   11.79
1986 Eric Davis           CIN           93       2      11   11.45
1985 Vince Coleman        SLN          140       5      25   11.43
1985 Rickey Henderson     NYA           93       4      10   10.95
1983 Willie Wilson        KCA           67       0       8   10.82
1986 Tim Raines           MON           79       2       9   10.67
1982 Tim Raines           MON           94       0      16   10.43
1981 Tim Raines           MON           84       2      11    9.74
1987 Vince Coleman        SLN          140       9      22    9.73
1984 Juan Samuel          PHI           89       2      15    9.33
1991 Marquis Grissom      MON           93       0      17    8.89
1987 Tim Raines           MON           56       1       5    8.62
1987 Willie Wilson        KCA           68       0      11    8.59
1985 Gary Pettis          CAL           67       2       9    8.47
1980 Jerry Mumphrey       SDN           53       0       5    7.99
1992 Marquis Grissom      MON           96       5      13    7.97
1991 Otis Nixon           ATL           94       1      21    7.60
1984 Willie Wilson        KCA           52       0       5    7.50
1992 Tim Raines           CHA           48       0       6    7.20
1990 Rickey Henderson     OAK           81       6      10    6.99
1985 Davey Lopes          CHN           49       1       4    6.94
1983 Al Wiggins           SDN           84       5      13    6.91
1985 Ryne Sandberg        CHN           62       0      11    6.82
1990 Vince Coleman        SLN           98       4      17    6.74
1986 Rickey Henderson     NYA          111       6      18    6.47
1989 Vince Coleman        SLN           81       6      10    6.37
1982 Rickey Henderson     OAK          174       4      42    6.19
1988 Vince Coleman        SLN          110       2      27    6.16
1988 Ozzie Smith          SLN           59       0       9    6.14
1988 Barry Larkin         CIN           47       0       7    6.12
1987 Gary Redus           CHA           64       1      11    6.09
2006 Ichiro Suzuki        SEA           47       1       3    6.03
1980 Dave Collins         CIN          106       6      21    5.89
1982 Al Wiggins           SDN           39       0       6    5.82
1983 U L Washington       KCA           49       2       7    5.72
1981 Julio Cruz           SEA           52       1       8    5.69
1992 Roberto Alomar       TOR           58       1       9    5.66
1992 Pat Listach          MIL           70       0      18    5.65
1993 Kenny Lofton         CLE           84       1      14    5.58
1983 Mookie Wilson        NYN           72       2      16    5.56
1980 Omar Moreno          PIT          134       6      33    5.54
1982 Paul Molitor         MIL           50       0       9    5.52
1989 Rickey Henderson     OAK           61       4       6    5.52
1986 Bob Dernier          CHN           29       0       2    5.42
1987 Paul Molitor         MIL           57       2      10    5.38
1988 Paul Molitor         MIL           51       0      10    5.33
1984 Mookie Wilson        NYN           55       2       9    5.27
1984 Rickey Henderson     OAK           85       1      18    5.26
1992 Devon White          TOR           41       0       4    5.25
1980 Ozzie Smith          SDN           71       1      15    5.24
1984 Gary Redus           CIN           63       4      11    5.23
1988 Eric Davis           CIN           37       0       3    5.20
1982 Mookie Wilson        NYN           76       2      16    5.16
1990 Barry Bonds          PIT           66       1      13    5.07
1980 Gene Richards        SDN           79       2      16    5.05
1985 Gary Redus           CIN           60       0      12    5.01
2000 Eric Young           CHN           60       1       8    5.00

And now all of those with an EqSBR of less than -4. Note that Kenny Lofton and Will Clark took the top two spots by a wide margin. Lofton's dismal showing in 1997 was primarily the result of getting caught stealing twice at home. The first time he took off as the catcher attempted to cut down a runner moving from first to second and was subsequently thrown out in a rather odd 2-6-1-2 play. The second time a runner was picked off first (1-3-4) and then Lofton was thrown out trying to take home 4-2 for a double play. Each of those plays were debited at -1.29 for -2.58 total.

Year Name                  Team        Opp      PO      CS   EqSBR
1997 Kenny Lofton         ATL           50       3      20   -9.39
1987 Will Clark           SFN           22       0      17   -7.46
2004 Juan Pierre          FLO           73       4      28   -6.61
1993 Craig Biggio         HOU           32       0      17   -6.45
1983 Steve Henderson      SEA           26       3      14   -6.39
2005 Brad Wilkerson       WAS           19       2      12   -6.23
1992 Greg Vaughn          MIL           32       4      15   -6.21
1993 Ray Lankford         SLN           29       3      14   -6.03
1980 Alfredo Griffin      TOR           42       2      23   -6.03
1994 Jose Vizcaino        NYN           12       0      11   -5.97
1988 Harold Reynolds      SEA           64       2      29   -5.94
1995 Chad Curtis          DET           47       5      15   -5.81
2004 David DeJesus        KCA           21       2      13   -5.77
2003 Luis Castillo        FLO           40       1      20   -5.77
1995 Vinny Castilla       COL           10       1       8   -5.72
1993 Luis Polonia         CAL           83       4      24   -5.58
1993 Ryan Thompson        NYN           12       3       7   -5.49
2001 Vladimir Guerrero    MON           52       2      18   -5.40
1984 Tony Bernazard       CLE           36       3      13   -5.38
2004 Juan Uribe           CHA           21       2      13   -5.33
1994 Felix Jose           KCA           26       4      12   -5.30
1997 Bernard Gilkey       NYN           20       2      11   -5.18
1995 Otis Nixon           TEX           76       5      21   -5.16
1993 Darryl Hamilton      MIL           34       2      13   -5.15
1994 Greg Gagne           KCA           27       0      17   -5.12
1998 Fernando Vina        MIL           26       3      11   -5.11
1998 Tony Fernandez       TOR           22       2       8   -5.09
1997 Jose Offerman        KCA           18       1       9   -5.08
2003 Jose Cruz Jr.        SFN           13       0       8   -4.98
2006 Jamey Carroll        COL           25       3      15   -4.97
1992 Tony Fernandez       SDN           40       0      20   -4.94
1993 Chad Curtis          CAL           76       5      24   -4.94
1997 Todd Zeile           LAN           17       3       7   -4.93
1993 Harold Reynolds      BAL           28       5      11   -4.91
1982 Tony Johnson         TOR           17       1      13   -4.89
2000 Vladimir Guerrero    MON           22       3      13   -4.87
1985 Mike Marshall        LAN           14       1      10   -4.86
1986 Willie McGee         SLN           37       3      16   -4.85
1993 Pat Kelly            NYA           24       0      11   -4.83
1993 Omar Vizquel         SEA           26       0      14   -4.83
2004 Milton Bradley       LAN           29       3      14   -4.79
1981 Garry Templeton      SLN           22       2      12   -4.71
1991 Brett Butler         LAN           67       2      28   -4.70
1995 Sean Berry           MON           10       0       8   -4.68
1993 Willie McGee         SFN           21       2       9   -4.67
1998 Edgar Renteria       FLO           60       1      21   -4.66
1998 Carl Everett         HOU           26       1      12   -4.65
1998 Tom Goodwin          TEX           53       1      19   -4.64
1994 Shawon Dunston       CHN           11       1       8   -4.63
2001 Jason Kendall        PIT           27       0      14   -4.63
2003 Brad Wilkerson       MON           24       1      11   -4.63
1980 Steve Garvey         LAN           18       1      11   -4.62
1980 Damaso Garcia        TOR           27       1      13   -4.57
1982 Ruppert Jones        SDN           35       2      15   -4.55
1989 Tim Wallach          MON           13       3       7   -4.54
1996 Garret Anderson      CAL           16       1       9   -4.52
2000 Peter Bergeron       MON           24       0      13   -4.49
1986 Omar Moreno          ATL           36       3      16   -4.49
1997 Sammy Sosa           CHN           37       3      12   -4.48
2004 Jerry Hairston       BAL           22       3      11   -4.48
1997 Melvin Nieves        DET            9       1       7   -4.47
1997 Brady Anderson       BAL           31       3      11   -4.44
2002 Cristian Guzman      MIN           23       0      13   -4.44
1997 Darryl Hamilton      SFN           26       2      10   -4.44
1982 Charlie Moore        MIL           13       1      10   -4.42
1982 Rod Carew            CAL           27       0      17   -4.41
1991 Benito Santiago      SDN           19       1      10   -4.40
1998 Raul Mondesi         LAN           28       2      10   -4.38
1984 Rafael Ramirez       ATL           31       0      17   -4.38
2001 Chipper Jones        ATL           18       0      10   -4.36
2000 Warren Morris        PIT           18       2      12   -4.36
1995 Jacob Brumfield      PIT           37       3      12   -4.35
1997 Curtis Goodwin       CIN           36       2      13   -4.33
1998 Chuck Knoblauch      NYA           43       3      12   -4.33
2000 Jose Offerman        BOS            8       0       8   -4.29
1986 Chili Davis          SFN           29       1      13   -4.29
1990 Ozzie Guillen        CHA           30       1      17   -4.29
2005 Oscar Robles         LAN            8       0       8   -4.26
1997 Mickey Morandini     PHI           29       0      13   -4.26
1986 Scott Fletcher       TEX           25       3      11   -4.25
1983 Carney Lansford      OAK           11       0       8   -4.23
1990 Carney Lansford      OAK           27       0      14   -4.22
1990 Mike Devereaux       BAL           26       2      12   -4.22
1994 Charlie Hayes        COL           11       2       6   -4.21
1982 George Vukovich      PHI           11       1       9   -4.21
1980 Elliott Maddox       NYN           10       0       9   -4.20
2005 Brady Clark          MIL           23       0      13   -4.20
2003 Casey Blake          CLE           16       0       9   -4.19
1993 Mark McLemore        BAL           37       1      15   -4.19
2006 Bill Hall            MIL           17       1      10   -4.19
1996 Jeff Cirillo         MIL           13       0       9   -4.18
1983 Alfredo Griffin      TOR           21       2      11   -4.18
1993 Mickey Tettleton     DET           11       1       7   -4.13
1982 Joe Simpson          SEA           22       0      14   -4.13
1983 Brett Butler         ATL           67       5      23   -4.12
1996 John Cangelosi       HOU           28       2       9   -4.12
1991 Ellis Burks          BOS           18       1      11   -4.11
2000 Jay Payton           NYN           17       1      12   -4.10
2001 Randy Winn           TBA           23       1      11   -4.07
1984 Marvell Wynne        PIT           44       1      19   -4.07
1997 Paul O'Neill         NYA           17       1       7   -4.06
2002 Carlos Lee           CHA            8       3       7   -4.06
1982 Todd Cruz            SEA           12       0      10   -4.06
1989 Hubie Brooks         MON           17       0      11   -4.03
2002 Rafael Furcal        ATL           42       0      15   -4.02
1980 Rick Burleson        BOS           26       2      13   -4.02
2005 Jeromy Burnitz       CHN           12       3       7   -4.02
1992 Jose Offerman        LAN           40       2      16   -4.02
1987 Scott Fletcher       TEX           25       2      12   -4.01
1994 Spike Owen           CAL           10       0       8   -4.00