The Daily Double

While attempting to recover from a cold I spent a good part of the weekend back in 1984. Yesterday morning I popped in the DVD of the first game of the 1984 NLCS between the Cubs and Padres from the A&E Chicago Cubs Legends: Great Games Collector's Edition DVD Set. I love the set and you can find other sets by following the link to the right. Anyway, I was recounting to my daughters how for this game I left school (I was a junior in high school) at noon with I think an excuse from my parents although I might have feigned illness. As I was leaving for the walk home the superintendent stopped me but after realizing what day it was, and most folks in our small Iowa town did, he simply winked and sent me on my way.

In watching the game again for the first time since it was originally broadcast on ABC I had forgotten that Earl Weaver and Reggie Jackson joined Don Drysdale in the booth. And while generally Weaver and Drysdale provided some insight, Jackson said little that wasn't obvious or that was not from the typical player "guts and glory" script. Interestingly, at the very beginning of the broadcast Jackson noted (incorrectly) how Weaver introduced platooning to the majors several years prior and Weaver offerred a few comments on the particular mix of players he had that made the strategy successful. I had also forgotten that the umpires went on strike seeking better pay for the postseason and so the game was umpired by four replacement umps - one of seven games affected that season. The home plate umpire was inconsistent, a point that Drysdale hammered on, and in at least one instance an umpire found himself out of position although fortunately still got the call correct. As the game went on and finally got out of hand as the Cubs scored six times in the fifth inning, the home plate umpiring became even more inconsistent. Finally, the quality of the broadcast overall was pretty poor it seemed (even for the times since this morning I popped in the DVD of "the Sandberg game" broadcast on NBC earlier that season and which had a much better quality), and there were several glitches along the way. They did, however, introduce their new "super slo-mo" camera jointly developed with Sony and used first at the 1984 Olympics just a few months prior. Unfortunately, although Weaver referred to the stitch configuration on several of the pitches, the quality of the broadcast made it difficult even in slo-mo to see the rotation very well on Rick Suttcliffe's curve and on the Eric Show slider.

In the Sandberg game called by Bob Costas and Tony Kubek there were a couple of great plays by Ozzie Smith in the first three innings that I had forgotten about. Costas used the opportunity to contrast Cubs shortstop Larry Bowa's surehandedness with Smith's great range in pointing about that Smith made something like 140 more plays than Bowa in 1983. They also talked about Bowa turning to glasses and how he was now using the new lenses that darkened in the sun - a point I identified with since about that same time I too went to lenses like that. I'm not sure how long Bowa played with them but I found that after awhile they seemed to never lighten up totally when moving indoors. Costas and Kubek also made the point a couple of times in the broadcast that walks and on base percentage are two of the most underrated statistics in baseball and used the occasion to point out that this was perhaps the most important reason why Gary Matthews was in the third spot in the batting order.


But in watching both games I was thinking about the "Daily Double" of Bob Dernier and Ryne Sandberg in the first two spots in the Cubs order. Dernier of course was added to the roster as a part of the trade with the Phillies in spring training that also netted Gary Matthews and Porfi Altamirano in exchange for Bill Campbell and Mike Diaz. Anyway, I was curious how many runs the Daily Double actually contributed and so here's a look at the 1984 Cubs roster in terms of its baserunning.

Name               Opps  EqGAR   Opps  EqSBR   Opps  EqAAR HAOpps  EqHAR   Opps  EqOAR   Opps  EqBRR
Bob Dernier          34    1.4     68    0.9     47    0.6     52    1.7    391    1.7    592    6.2
Gary Matthews        29    0.3     27   -1.2     54    0.2     49    2.1    368    1.3    527    2.7
Thad Bosley           4    0.2      6    0.2      7    0.1      7    0.9     66    0.5     90    1.9
Henry Cotto           6    0.5     13    0.0     19    0.9     18   -0.2    141    0.2    197    1.4
Davey Lopes           2    0.1      3    0.4      2    0.0      4    0.7      6    0.0     17    1.1
Leon Durham          17    0.0     24   -0.6     41    0.1     36    1.1    253    0.4    371    1.0
Jay Johnstone         6    0.1      0    0.0      3    0.2      5    0.0     42    0.5     56    0.7
Dick Ruthven          2    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      1   -0.1     12    0.3     15    0.2
Rick Reuschel         2    0.0      0    0.0      1    0.2      4    0.1     20   -0.1     27    0.1
Steve Lake            4   -0.1      0    0.0      2    0.1      0    0.0     16    0.0     22    0.0
Lee Smith             0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      1    0.0      1    0.0
Tim Stoddard          0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      2    0.0      2    0.0
Dickie Noles          0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      4    0.0      4    0.0
Warren Brusstar       0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      5    0.0      5    0.0
Billy Hatcher         0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      6    0.0      6    0.0
Bill Buckner          2    0.1      0    0.0      5   -0.1      0    0.0      5    0.0     12    0.0
Scott Sanderson       0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0     10    0.0     10    0.0
Chuck Rainey          1    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      2    0.0      6    0.0      9   -0.1
Ron Hassey            0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0     18   -0.1     18   -0.1
Dan Rohn              1   -0.1      0    0.0      1    0.0      1    0.0      9    0.0     12   -0.1
Richie Hebner         6   -0.1      1    0.2      5    0.2      7   -0.5     56    0.0     75   -0.2
Steve Trout           3    0.1      0    0.0      3    0.0      4   -0.3     20   -0.1     30   -0.3
Mel Hall              6   -0.4      4   -0.3      6   -0.2     12    0.2     76    0.3    104   -0.3
Tom Veryzer           9   -0.1      0    0.0      1    0.2      2   -0.6     29    0.1     41   -0.4
Ryne Sandberg        24   -0.7     40    1.0     53   -2.8     61    2.3    377   -0.3    555   -0.5
Dave Owen             5   -0.4      3   -1.0      4   -0.1      8   -0.1     49    0.9     69   -0.8
Rich Bordi            1    0.1      0    0.0      0    0.0      1   -1.1      3    0.0      5   -1.1
Larry Bowa           29    1.3     13   -0.6     15   -1.3     25    0.3    201   -0.8    283   -1.1
Gary Woods            8   -0.3      3   -0.1      9    0.6      7   -1.4     52    0.0     79   -1.1
D Eckersley           3    0.2      0    0.0      0    0.0      4   -1.7     15   -0.1     22   -1.6
Ron Cey              25   -0.3      5   -0.7     29   -0.2     37   -0.5    250    0.1    346   -1.6
Rick Sutcliffe        6    0.0      0    0.0      4   -0.5      5   -1.3     26   -0.1     41   -1.9
Keith Moreland       23   -0.3      5   -2.1     31   -1.2     36    0.0    253    1.2    348   -2.4
Jody Davis           21   -0.5     10   -2.3     23   -0.5     29   -2.0    251    0.2    334   -5.2

                    279    0.8    225   -6.2    365   -3.5    417   -0.5   3039    5.9   4325   -3.4

So Dernier was worth about +6 runs and recorded positive numbers in all five baserunning categories.

EqGAR - advancing on ground outs
EqSBR - stolen base attempts and pick-offs
EqAAR - advancing on fly balls
EqHAR - advancing on hits
EqOAR - other advancement including wild pitches, passed balls, and balks

Sandberg, however, left a little to be desired as he was especially poor in advancing on fly balls and recorded a -2.8 EqAAR.

Overall, the Cubs as a team were at -3.4 although that's not as bad as you might think. Even with that value they placed ninth in baseball since at the time teams did very poorly on average in EqSBR. If we look at the team rankings and add a column for Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EqBRR) without EqSBR included, the Cubs were right in the middle of the pack.

Team       EqBRR  No EqSBR  EqBRR Rank
HOU          3.8      15.9           3
SDN          1.5      12.5           5
NYN          7.7      11.0           1
KCA         -4.9       9.1          10
SLN          4.3       7.7           2
TOR          1.8       7.6           4
LAN        -10.8       7.4          14
CLE        -14.0       6.5          20
CAL         -5.0       6.2          11
OAK         -0.3       6.0           7
CIN         -0.1       5.1           6
TEX         -8.3       4.9          12
SFN        -11.8       3.3          16
CHN         -3.4       2.8           9
ATL        -12.7       2.2          17
CHA        -11.5      -0.5          15
DET        -20.1      -1.7          22
MIN        -13.1      -1.8          18
MIL        -26.4      -3.3          24
PHI         -1.4      -3.9           8
BAL        -13.1      -4.4          19
NYA        -15.9      -6.6          21
MON         -8.9     -10.0          13
PIT        -28.1     -12.3          26
SEA        -26.5     -12.4          25
BOS        -25.8     -16.8          23

One of the reasons that teams did more poorly in EqSBR during that era was that stolen base percentages were lower overall as I discussed in a column back in November and documented by this graph.



Since EqSBR and all the baserunning metrics are based on break-even percentages calculated from Run Expectancy matrices, lower stolen base percentages lead directly to negative EqSBR values. Some readers have pointed out however, that at least some of the difference in success rate over time has to do with the more frequent reliance on the hit and run play in the past. I'm certain that is the case and although you might think that some of that reliance will be offset by increased EqHAR values since on a successful hit and run the runner will advance from first to third more often, that difference will not be reflected in EqHAR. This is the case since EqHAR is calculated based on a comparison to the average success rate for the current season and not against a historical norm. In any case, future adjustments to EqSBR based on whether the batter offered at the pitch (or when not available when the batter strikes out) will be able to better get a handle on this. My suspicion is that even with the adjustments we'll find that EqSBR values will still be lower as increased awareness of the costs of allowing fast but relatively poor success rate players (in the 55-70% range) to steal has driven down their opportunities.

To wrap up lets look at the career baserunning numbers for the Daily Double starting with Sandberg.

Year  Team     Opps  EqGAR   Opps  EqSBR   Opps  EqAAR HAOpps  EqHAR   Opps  EqOAR   Opps  EqBRR
1981  PHI         1    0.1      0    0.0      1    0.0      2    0.1     15   -0.1     19    0.1
1982  CHN        49    4.0     49   -0.8     41   -1.4     42    3.3    332    0.4    513    5.5
1983  CHN        45    1.2     50    1.2     61   -3.0     32    0.7    369    0.0    557    0.1
1984  CHN        24   -0.7     40    1.0     53   -2.8     61    2.3    377   -0.3    555   -0.5
1985  CHN        27   -0.8     64    5.6     52    0.6     47    2.5    372    1.3    562    9.2
1986  CHN        34    0.7     45    1.0     50   -2.0     16    0.5    318   -1.7    463   -1.4
1987  CHN        37   -1.1     23    3.0     32    0.7     39    0.9    297   -1.0    428    2.5
1988  CHN        41   -0.3     36   -0.7     53    0.2     50    0.2    354   -0.3    534   -0.9
1989  CHN        29   -0.9     20   -1.0     40    0.5     64    1.2    356   -0.1    509   -0.3
1990  CHN        26   -0.3     35    1.3     48    0.9     50    0.9    326   -0.1    485    2.7
1991  CHN        30    0.3     34    0.3     66   -1.5     50   -0.6    359    1.7    539    0.2
1992  CHN        42   -1.1     25    0.5     64   -0.7     66    2.5    397    0.3    594    1.5
1993  CHN        27   -0.4     11    0.4     36    0.0     50    2.2    278   -0.1    402    2.1
1994  CHN        14   -0.2      5   -1.4     23    0.4     28    0.6    128   -0.6    198   -1.2
1996  CHN        21    0.3     18   -1.4     40    0.9     40   -0.2    260   -0.3    379   -0.7
1997  CHN        25   -0.2     10   -0.9     26    0.9     30    2.7    213    0.3    304    2.8
                472    0.5    465    8.0    686   -6.2    667   19.7   4751   -0.3   7041   21.7

He adds about two wins to his career totals with his work on the bases with almost all of that coming due to his stolen bases, where he was a good career percentage stealer, and advancing on hits. As I remember it his EqGAR and EqAAR totals accurrately reflect the fact that he was less than a stellar runner when it came to making decisions on advancing on ground outs and fly balls, often taking chances that weren't warranted and getting thrown out.

To put some perspective on this, the elite runners who played a few more seasons than Sandberg including Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson, and Willie Wilson are in the +100 run range and someone like Vince Coleman who played about the same length was at +70 runs.

Finally, we'll take a look at Bob Dernier.

Year  Team     Opps  EqGAR   Opps  EqSBR   Opps  EqAAR HAOpps  EqHAR   Opps  EqOAR   Opps  EqBRR
1980  PHI         2    0.0      4    0.1      3    0.0      2    0.5     16   -0.1     27    0.5
1981  PHI         2   -0.1      3    0.2      1    0.0      1    0.2     14   -0.1     21    0.2
1982  PHI        19   -0.2     57    1.2     30   -2.0     29    0.8    210    1.2    345    1.1
1983  PHI        19    0.6     42    1.2     19   -1.1     22    1.8    172   -0.3    274    2.2
1984  CHN        34    1.4     68    0.9     47    0.6     52    1.7    391    1.7    592    6.2
1985  CHN        25    0.2     42    1.8     44   -1.5     37    0.1    275    0.7    423    1.2
1986  CHN        30    0.7     29    4.7     24   -0.1     14    0.2    195    0.9    292    6.5
1987  CHN        11   -0.1     23   -0.2     11    0.0     22    1.4    134    0.0    201    1.1
1988  PHI        23   -0.3     19    0.2     11   -0.3     18   -0.7    122   -0.4    193   -1.4
1989  PHI         8   -0.2      7   -1.2     12    0.0     21    0.9    111    0.7    159    0.2
                173    2.0    294    9.0    202   -4.5    218    6.9   1640    4.4   2527   17.8

Dernier had a better overall season on the bases in 1986 and wound up his career at +18 runs overall. As for the Daily Double, their best season together was 1985 when Sandberg was at +9.2 and Dernier at +1.2 for a total of +11.3 runs.

While the actual numbers don't indicate that the Daily Double paid huge dividends with their feet in 1984, their ability to get on base (Dernier's OBP was .356, the second best of his career) and Sandberg's MVP season certainly propelled the offense to a division title and gave us Cubs fans a season we'll never forget.

NLCS Game Three

Last night I worked the NLCS game three matchup at Coors Field for MLB.com as a stringer for Gameday. While I was certainly glad that I didn't have to endure the 40 degree and drizzly weather, I was unprepared for the crush of media in the usually uncrowded and spacious press box at Coors Field. After finding my newly assigned seat and enjoying the pre-game press conferences I settled in and despite the unreliable wireless access we were able to get the job done.

In the end the night was not a good one for Eric Byrnes, a topic I wrote about today on BP Unfiltered. It was also a game that focused in on one plate appearance which was written about by Jenifer Langosch and which I also touch on in the Unfiltered post with the help of PITCHf/x data. For the conditions I thought the game was well played and both managers made solid moves. The only thing I second-guessed was Clint Hurdle's use of both Manny Corpas and Brian Fuentes in the eighth and ninth innings with the three run lead given that there is a game tonight. In that situation I think I would have favored bringing in LaTroy Hawkins or perhaps Ryan Speier and only going to either Fuentes or Corpas if there was trouble. But that's pretty nit-picky since if the Rockies win game three, you may purposefully sit one of the two tonight and roll the dice a little.

In any case, looking forward to the games again tonight.

Chatting and Probabilities

Just a quick reminder that I'll be chatting on Baseball Prospectus at 11am mountain time tomorrow morning. As always you can submit questions and topics to discuss ahead of time...

Also, my column this week on BP took another look at the atmosphereic effects on pitched balls using PITCHf/x as well as a short rant on probability versus predictions and models versus reality.

In the latter vein, I ran my simulator for the National League Championship series with the following results:

D'Backs win 54.6%, Rockies with 45.4%

D'Backs sweep 5.9%, Rockies sweep 5.0%

Series goes seven games 33% of the time with the D'Backs winning those contests 61% of the time

Series goes six games 31% of the time with the D'Backs winning those 60% of the time

The D'Backs do well in the simulator because of their excellent home winning percentage (.617) and the fact they have home field advantage while neither team did well on the road (.491 for the Rockies and .494 for the Snakes). But echoing today's column probabilities like this are not prediction and any model won't factor in all the variables that play into a result in the physical world. In this case the model is simple and takes into account only home and road record along with the series format. It could of course include pitching matchups, health, and head to head matchups, all of which would improve the model. That said, even with a reasonable model seemingly improbable events occur all the time and so don't be surprised if something "improbable" occurs and instead just enjoy the ride.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 6

Starting in the top of the eighth...

Final. Indians 4, Yankees 8.

Unimpressive. I haven't seen Robinson Cano play much this year but he's now looked poor on two plays. Such are the risks of small sample sizes since Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average have him at +23 in 2007 and Ultimate Zone Rating has him at +15, second in the American League behind Mark Ellis at +25. Derek Jeter, on the other hand, was last in the AL at -27 in UZR and at -6 at BP.

Tomorrow, Tomorrow. The Yankees don't replace Joba Chamberlain and he has a 21 pitch inning and gives up a run. For the two innings he throws 38 pitches. Wonder how that will impact tomorrow's game assuming this one ends with a Yankee victory especially not knowing what you're going to get with Mike Mussina as the probable starter tomorrow.

Guts. Chip Carey notes that Joe Borowski does it with location and "guts". I'm not sure but I think that means he doesn't have very good stuff. The graphic they showed of his ERA in save and non-save situations was interesting with his save era at around 3.70 and his non-save at over 9.00. The implication of course is that he's better under pressure but I do see from looking at his game logs that he took four losses in 15 non-save situation appearances. In only two other games did he come in with a big lead, pitch poorly and have his team still win.

Mariano Rivera finishes it off and we'll have baseball tomorrow night.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 5

Starting in the top of the sixth...

End of the seventh inning, Indians 3, Yankees 8.

Hard Stuff. Uneventful top of the sixth with Phil Hughes now mixing his pitches nicely. He threw all fastballs to Kenny Lofton in striking him out and 13 of his 18 pitches were fastballs.

Done. Like Bob Brenly, also surprised that Jake Westbrook is back out for the bottom of the sixth but that doesn't last long with A-Rod's second single of the night on a changeup. It was clear that Westbrook had lost the confidence in his sinker as he threw just two in five pitches to Rodriguez.

Strategic. I really liked the bunt by Doug Mientkiewicz in that situation with nobody out and runners on first and second. That's the situation where, if the idea is to score a single run, the break even value is the lowest it ever is for laying down a sacrifice bunt at under 80% for the general case. In this situation already up by two runs, a third run means raising the win expectancy by over 8%.

Busted It Open. The move pays off with the single from Robinson Cano and subsequent error by Trot Nixon in right field that plates three runs and lets Yankee fans breathe a little easier.

Joba Rules. Joba Chamberlain hits greater than 98 mph on three pitches to the first two batters and 99.2 on the first pitch to the third, but strikes out the first couple on sliders in the dirt. He tries the same thing to Travis Hafner but he gets it up and Hafner flies out to right field. After the fourth pitch to Hafner Chip Carey says that "last pitch broke a foot and a half". PITCHf/x had it's movement at 9.4 inches horizontally and 7.4 inches horizontally and thrown at 77 mph. Not a foot and a half but a huge break none the less. That said, I hope Brenly is wrong and they don't elect to use him for another inning. With a five-run lead it would seem to be prudent to save him for tomorrow.

Wow. Jensen Lewis looks impressive and had an excellent September in 10 games.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 4

Starting in the top of the fourth...

End of five innings, Indians 3, Yankees 5.

Tailing. Tony Gwynn mentioned that the fastball Phil Hughes threw to strike out Trot Nixon in the fourth was a good running fastball. Generally speaking Hughes' fastball rides more than it tails (I presume the definition of "running" likely includes both). On the season his fastball will typically record a vertical movement value of 12 or more inches, meaning that it comes in about two to three inches higher than a typical fastball thrown at that velocity. The tailing action on his fastball, however, is only in the range of one to three inches. In fact, that pitch referenced by Gwynn had a value of 1.3 inches according to PITCHf/x.

Consistency? Robinson Cano doesn't move his body and get in front of the ball and after scoring it a hit initially the call is changed to an error. The right call I think but terribly inconsistent given Jeter's gift in the first.

Curve. As noted by Bob Brenly Phil Hughes has established his curveball and threw it four of the first eight pitches in the fifth inning and then used it setup the fastball on the outside corner to Ryan Garko to end the top of the fifth. Nice.

Shift. Before Jason Giambi struck out in the bottom of the fifth I think Tony Gwynn was going to take Giambi to task for not attempting to beat the shift with his team desparately needing base runners. BIPChart says Giambi hits 75% of his grounders from the middle to the right side of the infield and the shift worked perfectly in his first at bat.

Getting the Ball Up. The three straight singles in the bottom of the fifth off of Jake Westbrook were all elevated sinkers at 2.2, 2.4, and 3.3 feet above the ground. Not mentioned but two very nice plays by Kenny Lofton to hold Hideki Matsui at third and to charge the single by Melky Cabrera and hit the cutoff man.

See Above. As was the homerun Johnny Damon hit to give the Yankees at 5-3 lead. That pitch was thrown at 91.7 mph and came in at 3.4 feet above the ground and was also about 2 inches towards the left-handed batter's box. Can the relievers get ready any faster? As a result, Derek Jeter sees only one sinker out of five pitches and now Westbrook is trying to adjust by working his curveball and slider. Maybe a little too late.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 3

Continuing in the top of the third as Phil Hughes enters the game...

End of the third inning. Indians 3, Yankees 1.

Wild Pitch. Jorge Posada has no chance on that pitch from Hughes and it hit so far in the front of the plate that moving over into a blocking position likely wouldn't have helped. Of course as has been their luck it immediately costs them on Jhonny Peralta's double to right.

Sweeps. This is looking like the first time all four division series will end in sweeps. In fact this is the first time there have been as many as three sweeps. The two game sweeps

In 2006 Oakland swept Minnesota and the Mets swept the Dodgers.
In 2005 the White Sox swept the Red Sox and the Cardinals swept the Padres (despite my prediction to the contrary).
In 2000 the Mariners swept the White Sox and St. Louis swept Atlanta.
In 1998 the Yankees swept the Rangers and Cubs were swept by the Braves.
In 1997 Florida swept San Francisco and Atlanta swept Houston.
And finally, in 1995 the Indians swept Boston and the Reds swept the Dodgers.

DPs. As with Livan Hernandez last night, Jake Westbrook has been able to get out of trouble courtesy of the double play via his sinker. At one point, as reported by Nate Silver, 12 of 24 Cubs hitters had reached base and yet they were unable to break it open. And so with their defeat, 2008 will be the 100th year of the rebuilding effort.

Mistake. Terrible play by Victor Martinez in throwing to third with a three-run lead. Nice slide by Hideki Matsui to get his hand in there. And another good sinker from Westbrook to get the ground ball. He's throwing his sinker consistently between 91.5 and 92.5 mph. However, the one he threw to Johnny Damon stays up and he scoots it through the right side.

And another DP on another sinker, this one at 1.99 feet from the ground.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 2

Starting at the top of the second...

Top of the third. Indians 2 Yankees 0 - pitching change.

Oops. Did I say Clemens' location was good? Trot Nixon hits an 86 mph splitter that doesn't sink or a slider that just spins and ends up thigh high on the inner half (PITCHf/x had it an inch and half towads the left-handed box). Grady Sizemore hits almost the identical pitch albeit a few inches lower for a single to right. The splitter is looking better in the at bat to Asdrubal Cabrera even though he was able to lay off the two best pitches.

A-Rod. 0 for his last 18 in the postseason and Alex Rodriguez just misses a 3-1 fastball in the zone before hitting a solid single to left on a 92.5 mph fastball. Maybe the buzzards will move off for a few innings at least.

Turbo sinker! The first "turbo sinker" reference belongs to Bob Brenly in reference to Fausto Carmona in the bottom of the second.

Laying off. Chip Carey and Tony Gwynn agree that Indians hitters are laying off the split fingered fastball and he's taking longer between pitches now and doesn't look good. This won't last long.

Done. Clemens is done after throwing fewer than 60 pitches. Is this the last time we see him on the mound? Lord I hope so. I'd hate to see another round of "where will Roger go" this offseason. Enough is enough and maybe this will convince him to hang it up content with the fact that he was arguably the greatest pitcher of all time.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 1

Hoping that this game is more interesting than the Red Sox/Angels, I thought I'd blog a little during the game. I'll try to do an inning or two at a time for as long as I can.

Indians 1, Yankees 0 end of one inning.

Derek Jeter throws wild in the top of the first. A hit? Are you kidding? Yet another example of how scoring has been construed to the advantage of the fielder to a ridiculous degree in recent years. In a recent column noting the Rockies breaking of the all-time fielding percentage record, I talked about the increase in fielding percentage and how that records an increasing level of excellence in play. While I think the general trend still holds there is no doubt that fielders have a larger margin for error today than they did say 20 years ago.

Clemens. 27 pitches in the top of the first. He topped out at 93.2 mph in his first pitch to Asdrubal Cabrera. His location hasn't been bad other than the single hit by Ryan Garko on a 91.4 mph fastball that was right down the middle.

Jake Westbrook struggled a bit in September (60 baserunners in 37 innings) but in the first inning all three balls that were hit were down in the strike zone (2.2, 1.9, and 1.8 feet off the ground. Good news for a guy that relies on his sinker and as Bob Brenly said, throws his fastball 80% of the time on first pitches.

Torre's Job. So the boss says Joe Torre needs to win to keep his job. It seems like we've heard this before although it seems this is a little more serious.

Rocktober Rocks On!

I was wrong.

As September dawned more and more co-workers, acquaintances, and family members posed the question to me as to whether the Rockies would make the playoffs. Being the realistic analyst type guy I am I assured them that given the unbalanced schedule and the number of teams that the Rockies would have to jump over, that it was virtually impossible. Even as September 15th dawned I distinctly recall a co-worker cornering me in the break room and with a hopeful expression, asking whether the Rockies could still pull it off. I said something about them having to win 10 of 11 or 11 of 12 just to have a shot while knowing that wasn't going to happen and feeling good about myself for letting him down easy.

As Nate Silver has written, when the Rockies stood at 77-72 their odds of reaching the playoffs using BP's post season odds report was in fact 1.82% or 54:1. That marked the third most unlikely comeback with 20 or fewer games to play in history behind only the 1964 Cardinals (1.26% with 13 games to play) and the 1934 Cardinals (1.16% with 15 to play). He also points out that their odds were at 1.46% when their record stood at 18-27 on May 21st and was only 4.4% after their loss to the Diamondbacks on September 28th (I wrote a retrospective on the Rockies season at BP you might want to check out). In fact, Silver notes that what's so impressive about the Rockies season is that "they were never, not for one day, greater than even-money to make the playoffs until they actually did."

In accord with that simulation, from a historical perspective, through 2006 there were 988 teams that found themselves with an 18-27 record or worse at some point in the season and only 13 of those (1.3%) had reached postseason play.

So given the long odds and history I don't feel too bad about trying to be realistic but next time I'll be a little more humble.



With all that in mind I headed to Coors Field as a fan to take in only the third home playoff game in Rockies history and the first postseason game I had ever attended. I arrived early and stood in line with the faithful outside of gate A waiting for the gates to open two hours prior to game time. It had been a warm and windy day in Denver and was still over 75 degrees with warms winds from the south west as we made our way into the ballpark.


The Phillies were on the field taking batting practice and so I made my way into the left field stands to watch the mad rush for homerun balls. With the wind gusting out to left center Jayson Werth put on a show hitting several balls onto the concourse and showing the fans in straight-away left with souvenirs. The Phillies starters including Cole Hamels had fun with the fans, teasing them by pretending to throw balls into the stands before actually giving them away. In one kind of funny scene several of them started to imitate the motion of throwing a pitch left-handed and then slamming their glove on the ground and I couldn't help thinking that they were reenacting Ted Lilly's reaction in game two against the Diamondbacks after he gave up a homerun to Chris Young in the second inning. During all of this a young boy standing a few feet from me, who was sporting a glove, got hit with a ball in the head and was rewarded for his lack of attention with another ball from a Phillies pitcher before being checked out by the medical staff.


Being in the vicinity I had to snap this picture of the row of seats behind the left field fence to provide some perspective on the ball that Garrett Atkins hit in the one-game playoff that likely hit one of the chairs and bounced back onto the field. Although it happened at an inopportune time from the Rockies perspective a ricochet like that is not unheard of and I believe it was the second or third time a homerun was in question this season.


In any case, after standing in a really long line for patty melt and a Coke I headed up to my seat in the mezzanine level of the right field stands to enjoy the pregame activities which included the introductions, the releasing of balloons, and the national anthem. While in line for the Coke I was reminded of how some "fans" have little actual knowledge of the game. One of the two men behind me turned to the other and expressed surprise that the Rockies had to win just one series in order to be in "the semifinals" while the other assured him that in baseball, unlike some other sports, teams are rewarded for their regular season record.


Shortly after I took my seat three or four loud and obnoxious Phillies fans ensconced themselves directly behind me. While at first they were rooting for their team, things quickly turned ugly in the second inning and the guy sitting next to me got into an altercation with one of them resulting in a shove. Predictably the police arrived in our section shortly thereafter and escorted one of the Philly faithful away. However, the Phils fan returned an inning later and all seemed to be squared away as the guy next to me bought him a beer (not a good idea as it turned out).

In the meantime the game had started and Ubaldo Jimenez had his electric stuff. In the midst of giving up a walk and hit in the top of the first he struck out the side. The last strikeout of Aaron Rowand consisted of three sliders thrown 86.4, 86.4 and 87.1 mph as shown below.



In the top of the second, after the first pitch to Chase Utley all of the banks of stadium lights went dark. The scoreboard was still operational and so there was plenty of light to see by. All told it took 14 minutes for the "computer glitch" to be resolved and the lights to fully come back on and play to resume.

Jimenez would work six and a third innings, give up three hits and four walks. His fastest pitch of the night was recorded at 98.3 miles per hour to Ryan Howard in the first inning, a pitch Howard was jammed on but would fight off for a bloop single to right. PITCHf/x recorded 95 of his pitches, 57 fastballs averaging 94.5 mph, five changeups averaging 85 mph, 15 curveballs at 73.5 mph, and 18 sliders at 84.9 mph. His only mistake was an 82 mile per hour changeup (correction: Yorvit Torrealba says it was a slider which points out the difficulty in pitch classification on occasion using PITCHf/x) he left out and over the plate to Shane Victorino (shown below from the hitter's perspective) with one out in the top of the seventh. Victorino got ahold of it and hit it into the right field stands just below the section in which I was sitting.



The weather was also a factor as about 10 minutes before game time the wind shifted, now blowing in from left-center, with a distinct chill in the air. Although the game time temperature was reported at 73 degrees, by game time it was probably already in the mid 60s and dropping. In the bottom of the second (by then 56 degrees with the wind howling) Atkins got a hold of a Jamie Moyer curveball that was down and in and lifted a high fly to left field. Forty-five minutes earlier, or even on a typical night, that ball would have been several rows deep in the stands. As it was Pat Burrell was able to catch it on the warning track. From there the temps dropped and the wind continued to gust from 15 to 20 miles per hour through most of the first five innings or so. Later in the game the winds died down and temps stabilized.

Throughout the game the Phils fans behind me kept up their cheering but things turned uglier in the seventh. Having obviously had too much beer and prodded on by some obnoxious Rockies rooters sitting somewhere behind them throwing peanut shells, more words were exchanged complete with foul-mouthed name calling. Once again the police were summoned and this time two of the Phils fans were escorted out not to return. As if this weren't enough there was an additional flare up and the final fan (a woman no less who I would expect would be more civilized) was also escorted out. Having cleansed the section, the Rockies fans seem somewhat pleased and the remainder of the game was uneventful from that perspective.

It's a shame that the family sitting behind me with two boys aged four or five had to endure this silliness. As all of this unfolded I remembered just why it was that I stopped sitting in the outfield stands at Kauffman Stadium with my daughters in tow. It almost never fails that one or more fans ruins the experience through excess drinking. It's not politically correct but in my experience that kind of behavior is rare in the more expensive seats and it's worth it to me to pay $10 or $15 extra bucks to have a positive family experience.

This too reminded me of the only game I ever attended at old Tiger Stadium. It was in the early 1980s with the White Sox in town and my brother and father and me sat in the left field stands. The liquored-up fans in the center field bleachers had quite a time hitting beach balls, throwing food and beer, and trying to pelt White Sox centerfield Rudy Law with objects forcing him to run into the dugout and emerge with a batting helmet. After several fights the police were called and ended up arresting quite a number of people. Our family was on vacation and I recall my mother feigning concern when we returned to the hotel that we weren't some of the many being held in the clink.

Of course, the crucial moments of a game that was tense from start to finish occurred in the bottom of the eighth when with two outs Atkins singled on a line drive to left field and Brad Hawpe hit a ball between Howard and Chase Utley, which Utley knocked down, but that scooted away for a hit sending Atkins to third. Both hits were off LOOGY J.C. Romero and after a conference on the mound, surprisingly Charlie Manual chose to stick with the lefty against pinch hitter Jeff Baker when he had righty Brett Myers in the pen. Seemingly, Myers was the obvious choice given Baker's .205/.267/.289 line against right-handers as opposed to .246/.333/.426 against southpaws. But Manuel didn't make the move and with the white towels given out before the game waving madly, Baker hit a 91.5 mph fastball through the hole between first and second to deliver the biggest hit in Rockies history.

Despite Clint Hurdle using Brian Fuentes, in my opinion needlessly on Thursday afternoon, he came in and pitched a perfect eighth inning striking out Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell before Manny Corpas came on and closed the game in the ninth.


When Victorino grounded to Kaz Matsui (whose triple past Burrell on a Moyer curveball in the fifth inning plated the first run) for the final out pandemonium is the only way to describe it. Fireworks, chanting, and high-fives all around went on for quite some time with several players emerging from the clubhouse to shower the fans with champagne. After about 30 minutes I slipped out with the celebration still in full swing and headed home. A well-played game, an exciting game, and a night to remember for Rockies fans. As for me, besides being at Wrigley Field for a clinching game (alas I heard the listened to the end of the sweep completed just before game time on the radio I brought), I can't think of any better outcome for my first postseason experience.

Division Series Odds

With the division series set to kick off within the hour I thought I'd post the odds for each of the eight teams as calculated by a little simulator I wrote. The program takes into consideration the home and road records of each team, home field advantage, and the series format. It simulates each series 100,000 times.

NLDS Rockies vs. Phillies
Philles win 54.4%
Rockies win 45.6%

The simulator has the Phillies sweeping 15% of the time with Rockies doing so just 8.5%. It also says the series has a 38% chance of going the distance with the Phillies winning 61% of those contests.

NLDS Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks win 59.3%
Cubs win 40.7%

The simulator likes the D'Backs odds more than any other team in the first round primarily because of their excellent home record (50-31) and the Cubs problems on the road (41-40) coupled with the home field advantage.

ALDS Yankees vs. Indians
Indians win 54.5%
Yankees win 45.5%

Both teams have exceptional records at home (52-29) and the Indians were slightly better on the road. Adding in the home field advantage the simulator likes the Tribe.

ALDS Angels vs. Red Sox
Red Sox win 58.3%
Angels win 41.7%

The Angels poor showing (40-41) on the road coupled with the Sox winning ways at home (51-30) are enough to push the advantage squarely into the BoSox camp.

A Different Look at Post Season Odds

Just getting set to score the Rockies/Dodgers game tonight at Coors Field with Derek Lowe up against Rodrigo Lopez. Lopez has pitched surprisingly well this season giving up 2 runs and 6 hits in 7 innings against Arizona on April 4th and one run on 5 hits in 6 innings against the Dodgers on April 10th. We'll see what he has tonight.

Since we're early in the season and the discussion at this time of year always turns to small sample sizes I thought I'd take a different look at post season odds than the one we use on Baseball Prospectus where the system uses our adjusted standings and runs simulations of 1,000,000 seasons to determine the probability of each team winning their division, taking the wild card, and making it to the postseason. There are also ELO and PECOTA adjusted versions and overall that approach is similar to the kinds of simulations I've run in the past for looking at postseason odds.

What I did here was different and is instead rooted in sort of the inverse of the uniformitarian philosophy embodied by the phrase "the present is the key to the past". In other words, it's a view from the historical record.

The first table below compares each 2007 team's record as of this afternoon to all other teams who have ever had that record and then includes two pieces of information - the average final winning percentage of all of those teams and the percentage of the time those teams reached the post season.

 W  L Teams FinalPct PSPct  Teams
10  4   149   0.560  0.302  Dodgers
 8  4   266   0.545  0.282  Mets
 9  4   198   0.559  0.278  Braves
 8  5   327   0.529  0.248  Blue Jays, Twins
 8  6   368   0.528  0.209  Reds, Padres
 6  4   416   0.526  0.207  Indians
 7  5   393   0.521  0.201  Red Sox
 9  6   312   0.529  0.196  Tigers, Diamondbacks
 5  4   493   0.520  0.185  Mariners
 7  6   403   0.514  0.154  Brewers
 7  7   359   0.504  0.131  Orioles, A's
 6  6   425   0.503  0.118  Yankees, Astros,Pirates
 6  7   362   0.490  0.099  Rangers,Marlins, Cardinals
 5  7   371   0.475  0.078  White Sox
 6  8   349   0.475  0.074  Devil Rays, Angels, Rockies
 5  8   335   0.463  0.060  Cubs
 3  9   143   0.438  0.049  Phillies
 4  8   241   0.450  0.046  Giants
 4 10   149   0.438  0.040  Nationals
 4 11   110   0.428  0.027  Royals

So here we see the Dodgers at 10-4 have the highest probability of reaching the post season at 30.2% (our basic report on BP has them at 41.2%) and teams in their position have gone on to play .560 baseball over the course of the season equivalent to 91 wins. On the opposite side the Royals have a 2.7% chance of reaching the post season (BP has them at 7.8% which seems extraordinarily high to me) and teams have come in at 69 wins (.428).

But of course this technique doesn't take into consideration the fact that more teams reach the playoffs given the current format. The following table takes this into account by looking only at seasons since 1995 when the three division format and wild card were introduced.

 W L Teams Final PctPSPct Teams
 9 4   25  0.555   0.480  Braves
10 4   23  0.545   0.435  Dodgers
 8 4   49  0.544   0.429  Mets
 8 5   66  0.530   0.394  Blue Jays, Twins
 9 6   58  0.529   0.379  Tigers, Diamondbacks
 8 6   66  0.523   0.364  Reds, Padres
 7 5   70  0.515   0.357  Red Sox
 5 4   84  0.519   0.345  Mariners
 6 4   68  0.520   0.338  Indians
 7 7   65  0.500   0.292  Orioles, A's
 7 6   65  0.501   0.262  Brewers
 6 7   70  0.496   0.243  Rangers,Marlins, Cardinals
 6 6   75  0.503   0.227  Yankees, Astros,Pirates
 5 7   56  0.476   0.179  White Sox
 5 8   54  0.480   0.167  Cubs
 6 8   64  0.481   0.156  Devil Rays, Angels, Rockies
 4 8   44  0.465   0.136  Giants
 4 11  20  0.446   0.100  Royals
 4 10  24  0.447   0.083  Nationals
 3 9   20  0.448   0.050  Phillies

The smaller sample here illogically puts the Braves at 9-4 ahead of the Dodgers at 10-4, but as you can see the odds of those teams reaching the post season goes up quite a bit since approximately 28% of all teams have made the playoffs since 1995.

Mostly what this tells us is that it is a long season and unless your team is 4-11, 4-10, or 3-9, based on history they still have a chance to make some noise.