The Daily Double

While attempting to recover from a cold I spent a good part of the weekend back in 1984. Yesterday morning I popped in the DVD of the first game of the 1984 NLCS between the Cubs and Padres from the A&E Chicago Cubs Legends: Great Games Collector's Edition DVD Set. I love the set and you can find other sets by following the link to the right. Anyway, I was recounting to my daughters how for this game I left school (I was a junior in high school) at noon with I think an excuse from my parents although I might have feigned illness. As I was leaving for the walk home the superintendent stopped me but after realizing what day it was, and most folks in our small Iowa town did, he simply winked and sent me on my way.

In watching the game again for the first time since it was originally broadcast on ABC I had forgotten that Earl Weaver and Reggie Jackson joined Don Drysdale in the booth. And while generally Weaver and Drysdale provided some insight, Jackson said little that wasn't obvious or that was not from the typical player "guts and glory" script. Interestingly, at the very beginning of the broadcast Jackson noted (incorrectly) how Weaver introduced platooning to the majors several years prior and Weaver offerred a few comments on the particular mix of players he had that made the strategy successful. I had also forgotten that the umpires went on strike seeking better pay for the postseason and so the game was umpired by four replacement umps - one of seven games affected that season. The home plate umpire was inconsistent, a point that Drysdale hammered on, and in at least one instance an umpire found himself out of position although fortunately still got the call correct. As the game went on and finally got out of hand as the Cubs scored six times in the fifth inning, the home plate umpiring became even more inconsistent. Finally, the quality of the broadcast overall was pretty poor it seemed (even for the times since this morning I popped in the DVD of "the Sandberg game" broadcast on NBC earlier that season and which had a much better quality), and there were several glitches along the way. They did, however, introduce their new "super slo-mo" camera jointly developed with Sony and used first at the 1984 Olympics just a few months prior. Unfortunately, although Weaver referred to the stitch configuration on several of the pitches, the quality of the broadcast made it difficult even in slo-mo to see the rotation very well on Rick Suttcliffe's curve and on the Eric Show slider.

In the Sandberg game called by Bob Costas and Tony Kubek there were a couple of great plays by Ozzie Smith in the first three innings that I had forgotten about. Costas used the opportunity to contrast Cubs shortstop Larry Bowa's surehandedness with Smith's great range in pointing about that Smith made something like 140 more plays than Bowa in 1983. They also talked about Bowa turning to glasses and how he was now using the new lenses that darkened in the sun - a point I identified with since about that same time I too went to lenses like that. I'm not sure how long Bowa played with them but I found that after awhile they seemed to never lighten up totally when moving indoors. Costas and Kubek also made the point a couple of times in the broadcast that walks and on base percentage are two of the most underrated statistics in baseball and used the occasion to point out that this was perhaps the most important reason why Gary Matthews was in the third spot in the batting order.


But in watching both games I was thinking about the "Daily Double" of Bob Dernier and Ryne Sandberg in the first two spots in the Cubs order. Dernier of course was added to the roster as a part of the trade with the Phillies in spring training that also netted Gary Matthews and Porfi Altamirano in exchange for Bill Campbell and Mike Diaz. Anyway, I was curious how many runs the Daily Double actually contributed and so here's a look at the 1984 Cubs roster in terms of its baserunning.

Name               Opps  EqGAR   Opps  EqSBR   Opps  EqAAR HAOpps  EqHAR   Opps  EqOAR   Opps  EqBRR
Bob Dernier          34    1.4     68    0.9     47    0.6     52    1.7    391    1.7    592    6.2
Gary Matthews        29    0.3     27   -1.2     54    0.2     49    2.1    368    1.3    527    2.7
Thad Bosley           4    0.2      6    0.2      7    0.1      7    0.9     66    0.5     90    1.9
Henry Cotto           6    0.5     13    0.0     19    0.9     18   -0.2    141    0.2    197    1.4
Davey Lopes           2    0.1      3    0.4      2    0.0      4    0.7      6    0.0     17    1.1
Leon Durham          17    0.0     24   -0.6     41    0.1     36    1.1    253    0.4    371    1.0
Jay Johnstone         6    0.1      0    0.0      3    0.2      5    0.0     42    0.5     56    0.7
Dick Ruthven          2    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      1   -0.1     12    0.3     15    0.2
Rick Reuschel         2    0.0      0    0.0      1    0.2      4    0.1     20   -0.1     27    0.1
Steve Lake            4   -0.1      0    0.0      2    0.1      0    0.0     16    0.0     22    0.0
Lee Smith             0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      1    0.0      1    0.0
Tim Stoddard          0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      2    0.0      2    0.0
Dickie Noles          0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      4    0.0      4    0.0
Warren Brusstar       0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      5    0.0      5    0.0
Billy Hatcher         0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      6    0.0      6    0.0
Bill Buckner          2    0.1      0    0.0      5   -0.1      0    0.0      5    0.0     12    0.0
Scott Sanderson       0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0     10    0.0     10    0.0
Chuck Rainey          1    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      2    0.0      6    0.0      9   -0.1
Ron Hassey            0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0     18   -0.1     18   -0.1
Dan Rohn              1   -0.1      0    0.0      1    0.0      1    0.0      9    0.0     12   -0.1
Richie Hebner         6   -0.1      1    0.2      5    0.2      7   -0.5     56    0.0     75   -0.2
Steve Trout           3    0.1      0    0.0      3    0.0      4   -0.3     20   -0.1     30   -0.3
Mel Hall              6   -0.4      4   -0.3      6   -0.2     12    0.2     76    0.3    104   -0.3
Tom Veryzer           9   -0.1      0    0.0      1    0.2      2   -0.6     29    0.1     41   -0.4
Ryne Sandberg        24   -0.7     40    1.0     53   -2.8     61    2.3    377   -0.3    555   -0.5
Dave Owen             5   -0.4      3   -1.0      4   -0.1      8   -0.1     49    0.9     69   -0.8
Rich Bordi            1    0.1      0    0.0      0    0.0      1   -1.1      3    0.0      5   -1.1
Larry Bowa           29    1.3     13   -0.6     15   -1.3     25    0.3    201   -0.8    283   -1.1
Gary Woods            8   -0.3      3   -0.1      9    0.6      7   -1.4     52    0.0     79   -1.1
D Eckersley           3    0.2      0    0.0      0    0.0      4   -1.7     15   -0.1     22   -1.6
Ron Cey              25   -0.3      5   -0.7     29   -0.2     37   -0.5    250    0.1    346   -1.6
Rick Sutcliffe        6    0.0      0    0.0      4   -0.5      5   -1.3     26   -0.1     41   -1.9
Keith Moreland       23   -0.3      5   -2.1     31   -1.2     36    0.0    253    1.2    348   -2.4
Jody Davis           21   -0.5     10   -2.3     23   -0.5     29   -2.0    251    0.2    334   -5.2

                    279    0.8    225   -6.2    365   -3.5    417   -0.5   3039    5.9   4325   -3.4

So Dernier was worth about +6 runs and recorded positive numbers in all five baserunning categories.

EqGAR - advancing on ground outs
EqSBR - stolen base attempts and pick-offs
EqAAR - advancing on fly balls
EqHAR - advancing on hits
EqOAR - other advancement including wild pitches, passed balls, and balks

Sandberg, however, left a little to be desired as he was especially poor in advancing on fly balls and recorded a -2.8 EqAAR.

Overall, the Cubs as a team were at -3.4 although that's not as bad as you might think. Even with that value they placed ninth in baseball since at the time teams did very poorly on average in EqSBR. If we look at the team rankings and add a column for Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EqBRR) without EqSBR included, the Cubs were right in the middle of the pack.

Team       EqBRR  No EqSBR  EqBRR Rank
HOU          3.8      15.9           3
SDN          1.5      12.5           5
NYN          7.7      11.0           1
KCA         -4.9       9.1          10
SLN          4.3       7.7           2
TOR          1.8       7.6           4
LAN        -10.8       7.4          14
CLE        -14.0       6.5          20
CAL         -5.0       6.2          11
OAK         -0.3       6.0           7
CIN         -0.1       5.1           6
TEX         -8.3       4.9          12
SFN        -11.8       3.3          16
CHN         -3.4       2.8           9
ATL        -12.7       2.2          17
CHA        -11.5      -0.5          15
DET        -20.1      -1.7          22
MIN        -13.1      -1.8          18
MIL        -26.4      -3.3          24
PHI         -1.4      -3.9           8
BAL        -13.1      -4.4          19
NYA        -15.9      -6.6          21
MON         -8.9     -10.0          13
PIT        -28.1     -12.3          26
SEA        -26.5     -12.4          25
BOS        -25.8     -16.8          23

One of the reasons that teams did more poorly in EqSBR during that era was that stolen base percentages were lower overall as I discussed in a column back in November and documented by this graph.



Since EqSBR and all the baserunning metrics are based on break-even percentages calculated from Run Expectancy matrices, lower stolen base percentages lead directly to negative EqSBR values. Some readers have pointed out however, that at least some of the difference in success rate over time has to do with the more frequent reliance on the hit and run play in the past. I'm certain that is the case and although you might think that some of that reliance will be offset by increased EqHAR values since on a successful hit and run the runner will advance from first to third more often, that difference will not be reflected in EqHAR. This is the case since EqHAR is calculated based on a comparison to the average success rate for the current season and not against a historical norm. In any case, future adjustments to EqSBR based on whether the batter offered at the pitch (or when not available when the batter strikes out) will be able to better get a handle on this. My suspicion is that even with the adjustments we'll find that EqSBR values will still be lower as increased awareness of the costs of allowing fast but relatively poor success rate players (in the 55-70% range) to steal has driven down their opportunities.

To wrap up lets look at the career baserunning numbers for the Daily Double starting with Sandberg.

Year  Team     Opps  EqGAR   Opps  EqSBR   Opps  EqAAR HAOpps  EqHAR   Opps  EqOAR   Opps  EqBRR
1981  PHI         1    0.1      0    0.0      1    0.0      2    0.1     15   -0.1     19    0.1
1982  CHN        49    4.0     49   -0.8     41   -1.4     42    3.3    332    0.4    513    5.5
1983  CHN        45    1.2     50    1.2     61   -3.0     32    0.7    369    0.0    557    0.1
1984  CHN        24   -0.7     40    1.0     53   -2.8     61    2.3    377   -0.3    555   -0.5
1985  CHN        27   -0.8     64    5.6     52    0.6     47    2.5    372    1.3    562    9.2
1986  CHN        34    0.7     45    1.0     50   -2.0     16    0.5    318   -1.7    463   -1.4
1987  CHN        37   -1.1     23    3.0     32    0.7     39    0.9    297   -1.0    428    2.5
1988  CHN        41   -0.3     36   -0.7     53    0.2     50    0.2    354   -0.3    534   -0.9
1989  CHN        29   -0.9     20   -1.0     40    0.5     64    1.2    356   -0.1    509   -0.3
1990  CHN        26   -0.3     35    1.3     48    0.9     50    0.9    326   -0.1    485    2.7
1991  CHN        30    0.3     34    0.3     66   -1.5     50   -0.6    359    1.7    539    0.2
1992  CHN        42   -1.1     25    0.5     64   -0.7     66    2.5    397    0.3    594    1.5
1993  CHN        27   -0.4     11    0.4     36    0.0     50    2.2    278   -0.1    402    2.1
1994  CHN        14   -0.2      5   -1.4     23    0.4     28    0.6    128   -0.6    198   -1.2
1996  CHN        21    0.3     18   -1.4     40    0.9     40   -0.2    260   -0.3    379   -0.7
1997  CHN        25   -0.2     10   -0.9     26    0.9     30    2.7    213    0.3    304    2.8
                472    0.5    465    8.0    686   -6.2    667   19.7   4751   -0.3   7041   21.7

He adds about two wins to his career totals with his work on the bases with almost all of that coming due to his stolen bases, where he was a good career percentage stealer, and advancing on hits. As I remember it his EqGAR and EqAAR totals accurrately reflect the fact that he was less than a stellar runner when it came to making decisions on advancing on ground outs and fly balls, often taking chances that weren't warranted and getting thrown out.

To put some perspective on this, the elite runners who played a few more seasons than Sandberg including Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson, and Willie Wilson are in the +100 run range and someone like Vince Coleman who played about the same length was at +70 runs.

Finally, we'll take a look at Bob Dernier.

Year  Team     Opps  EqGAR   Opps  EqSBR   Opps  EqAAR HAOpps  EqHAR   Opps  EqOAR   Opps  EqBRR
1980  PHI         2    0.0      4    0.1      3    0.0      2    0.5     16   -0.1     27    0.5
1981  PHI         2   -0.1      3    0.2      1    0.0      1    0.2     14   -0.1     21    0.2
1982  PHI        19   -0.2     57    1.2     30   -2.0     29    0.8    210    1.2    345    1.1
1983  PHI        19    0.6     42    1.2     19   -1.1     22    1.8    172   -0.3    274    2.2
1984  CHN        34    1.4     68    0.9     47    0.6     52    1.7    391    1.7    592    6.2
1985  CHN        25    0.2     42    1.8     44   -1.5     37    0.1    275    0.7    423    1.2
1986  CHN        30    0.7     29    4.7     24   -0.1     14    0.2    195    0.9    292    6.5
1987  CHN        11   -0.1     23   -0.2     11    0.0     22    1.4    134    0.0    201    1.1
1988  PHI        23   -0.3     19    0.2     11   -0.3     18   -0.7    122   -0.4    193   -1.4
1989  PHI         8   -0.2      7   -1.2     12    0.0     21    0.9    111    0.7    159    0.2
                173    2.0    294    9.0    202   -4.5    218    6.9   1640    4.4   2527   17.8

Dernier had a better overall season on the bases in 1986 and wound up his career at +18 runs overall. As for the Daily Double, their best season together was 1985 when Sandberg was at +9.2 and Dernier at +1.2 for a total of +11.3 runs.

While the actual numbers don't indicate that the Daily Double paid huge dividends with their feet in 1984, their ability to get on base (Dernier's OBP was .356, the second best of his career) and Sandberg's MVP season certainly propelled the offense to a division title and gave us Cubs fans a season we'll never forget.