FREE hit counter and Internet traffic statistics from freestats.com

Saturday, December 16, 2006

An Historical Look at EqSBR

Last week in my column at Baseball Prospectus I ran down the leaders and trailers in Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR) that I wrote about this summer. Although the name includes the words "stolen base" the measure also encompasses straight pickoffs.

Simply put, the methodology used relies on run expectancy (RE) tables and is more granular than a simple weighting of each stolen base and caught stealing, for example, by considering the base/out state in which the stolen base attempt or pick off occurred. In other words, if a runner steals third with two outs they'll receive less credit than a runner who steals third with one out on the basis that with one out the gain in potential runs outstrips that with two outs since the runner is more likely to score via a sac fly or ground out. Of course, this doesn't take into consideration the game state (score, inning) and for that we would need to use Win Expectancy (WX), but it does reveal something about the stolen base as a general offensive weapon as opposed to only a strategic one. The measure also does not include the backend of double steals.

In addition, the column this week contains the team totals for 2006. San Diego (+2.76), Baltimore (+1.99), Philadelphia (+1.16), and the Mets (+0.61) were the only teams to keep their heads above water while Florida sank to the bottom at -15.98. As as an aside I've updated my Balls in Play Chart (BIPChart) software as discussed on the new and very informative (this author excepted) Unfiltered blog at BP.

While answering a query from Matt Phillip at Fungoes.Net I ran the EqSBR program for all seasons (except 1999) from 1980 through 2006 (the computer chunked away for a little over 4 hours while we were out at my daughter's basketball game and delivering gifts). Listed below are the individual seasons of more than +5.00 followed by those at -4.00 or less. Of the 12,316 individual season totals that were calculated 8,195 or 67% came out less than zero. As you might imagine the top 19 values are from the decade of the 1980s.



Year Name Team Opp PO CS EqSBR
1980 Ron LeFlore MON 119 3 19 14.37
1980 Willie Wilson KCA 90 1 10 13.75
1983 Rickey Henderson OAK 132 5 19 13.71
1984 Tim Raines MON 85 0 10 13.49
1983 Tim Raines MON 110 6 14 13.31
1983 Rudy Law CHA 90 1 12 13.19
1988 Rickey Henderson NYA 110 4 13 12.34
1986 Vince Coleman SLN 130 9 14 11.91
1985 Tim Raines MON 80 1 9 11.79
1986 Eric Davis CIN 93 2 11 11.45
1985 Vince Coleman SLN 140 5 25 11.43
1985 Rickey Henderson NYA 93 4 10 10.95
1983 Willie Wilson KCA 67 0 8 10.82
1986 Tim Raines MON 79 2 9 10.67
1982 Tim Raines MON 94 0 16 10.43
1981 Tim Raines MON 84 2 11 9.74
1987 Vince Coleman SLN 140 9 22 9.73
1984 Juan Samuel PHI 89 2 15 9.33
1991 Marquis Grissom MON 93 0 17 8.89
1987 Tim Raines MON 56 1 5 8.62
1987 Willie Wilson KCA 68 0 11 8.59
1985 Gary Pettis CAL 67 2 9 8.47
1980 Jerry Mumphrey SDN 53 0 5 7.99
1992 Marquis Grissom MON 96 5 13 7.97
1991 Otis Nixon ATL 94 1 21 7.60
1984 Willie Wilson KCA 52 0 5 7.50
1992 Tim Raines CHA 48 0 6 7.20
1990 Rickey Henderson OAK 81 6 10 6.99
1985 Davey Lopes CHN 49 1 4 6.94
1983 Al Wiggins SDN 84 5 13 6.91
1985 Ryne Sandberg CHN 62 0 11 6.82
1990 Vince Coleman SLN 98 4 17 6.74
1986 Rickey Henderson NYA 111 6 18 6.47
1989 Vince Coleman SLN 81 6 10 6.37
1982 Rickey Henderson OAK 174 4 42 6.19
1988 Vince Coleman SLN 110 2 27 6.16
1988 Ozzie Smith SLN 59 0 9 6.14
1988 Barry Larkin CIN 47 0 7 6.12
1987 Gary Redus CHA 64 1 11 6.09
2006 Ichiro Suzuki SEA 47 1 3 6.03
1980 Dave Collins CIN 106 6 21 5.89
1982 Al Wiggins SDN 39 0 6 5.82
1983 U L Washington KCA 49 2 7 5.72
1981 Julio Cruz SEA 52 1 8 5.69
1992 Roberto Alomar TOR 58 1 9 5.66
1992 Pat Listach MIL 70 0 18 5.65
1993 Kenny Lofton CLE 84 1 14 5.58
1983 Mookie Wilson NYN 72 2 16 5.56
1980 Omar Moreno PIT 134 6 33 5.54
1982 Paul Molitor MIL 50 0 9 5.52
1989 Rickey Henderson OAK 61 4 6 5.52
1986 Bob Dernier CHN 29 0 2 5.42
1987 Paul Molitor MIL 57 2 10 5.38
1988 Paul Molitor MIL 51 0 10 5.33
1984 Mookie Wilson NYN 55 2 9 5.27
1984 Rickey Henderson OAK 85 1 18 5.26
1992 Devon White TOR 41 0 4 5.25
1980 Ozzie Smith SDN 71 1 15 5.24
1984 Gary Redus CIN 63 4 11 5.23
1988 Eric Davis CIN 37 0 3 5.20
1982 Mookie Wilson NYN 76 2 16 5.16
1990 Barry Bonds PIT 66 1 13 5.07
1980 Gene Richards SDN 79 2 16 5.05
1985 Gary Redus CIN 60 0 12 5.01
2000 Eric Young CHN 60 1 8 5.00


And now all of those with an EqSBR of less than -4. Note that Kenny Lofton and Will Clark took the top two spots by a wide margin. Lofton's dismal showing in 1997 was primarily the result of getting caught stealing twice at home. The first time he took off as the catcher attempted to cut down a runner moving from first to second and was subsequently thrown out in a rather odd 2-6-1-2 play. The second time a runner was picked off first (1-3-4) and then Lofton was thrown out trying to take home 4-2 for a double play. Each of those plays were debited at -1.29 for -2.58 total.

Year Name Team Opp PO CS EqSBR
1997 Kenny Lofton ATL 50 3 20 -9.39
1987 Will Clark SFN 22 0 17 -7.46
2004 Juan Pierre FLO 73 4 28 -6.61
1993 Craig Biggio HOU 32 0 17 -6.45
1983 Steve Henderson SEA 26 3 14 -6.39
2005 Brad Wilkerson WAS 19 2 12 -6.23
1992 Greg Vaughn MIL 32 4 15 -6.21
1993 Ray Lankford SLN 29 3 14 -6.03
1980 Alfredo Griffin TOR 42 2 23 -6.03
1994 Jose Vizcaino NYN 12 0 11 -5.97
1988 Harold Reynolds SEA 64 2 29 -5.94
1995 Chad Curtis DET 47 5 15 -5.81
2004 David DeJesus KCA 21 2 13 -5.77
2003 Luis Castillo FLO 40 1 20 -5.77
1995 Vinny Castilla COL 10 1 8 -5.72
1993 Luis Polonia CAL 83 4 24 -5.58
1993 Ryan Thompson NYN 12 3 7 -5.49
2001 Vladimir Guerrero MON 52 2 18 -5.40
1984 Tony Bernazard CLE 36 3 13 -5.38
2004 Juan Uribe CHA 21 2 13 -5.33
1994 Felix Jose KCA 26 4 12 -5.30
1997 Bernard Gilkey NYN 20 2 11 -5.18
1995 Otis Nixon TEX 76 5 21 -5.16
1993 Darryl Hamilton MIL 34 2 13 -5.15
1994 Greg Gagne KCA 27 0 17 -5.12
1998 Fernando Vina MIL 26 3 11 -5.11
1998 Tony Fernandez TOR 22 2 8 -5.09
1997 Jose Offerman KCA 18 1 9 -5.08
2003 Jose Cruz Jr. SFN 13 0 8 -4.98
2006 Jamey Carroll COL 25 3 15 -4.97
1992 Tony Fernandez SDN 40 0 20 -4.94
1993 Chad Curtis CAL 76 5 24 -4.94
1997 Todd Zeile LAN 17 3 7 -4.93
1993 Harold Reynolds BAL 28 5 11 -4.91
1982 Tony Johnson TOR 17 1 13 -4.89
2000 Vladimir Guerrero MON 22 3 13 -4.87
1985 Mike Marshall LAN 14 1 10 -4.86
1986 Willie McGee SLN 37 3 16 -4.85
1993 Pat Kelly NYA 24 0 11 -4.83
1993 Omar Vizquel SEA 26 0 14 -4.83
2004 Milton Bradley LAN 29 3 14 -4.79
1981 Garry Templeton SLN 22 2 12 -4.71
1991 Brett Butler LAN 67 2 28 -4.70
1995 Sean Berry MON 10 0 8 -4.68
1993 Willie McGee SFN 21 2 9 -4.67
1998 Edgar Renteria FLO 60 1 21 -4.66
1998 Carl Everett HOU 26 1 12 -4.65
1998 Tom Goodwin TEX 53 1 19 -4.64
1994 Shawon Dunston CHN 11 1 8 -4.63
2001 Jason Kendall PIT 27 0 14 -4.63
2003 Brad Wilkerson MON 24 1 11 -4.63
1980 Steve Garvey LAN 18 1 11 -4.62
1980 Damaso Garcia TOR 27 1 13 -4.57
1982 Ruppert Jones SDN 35 2 15 -4.55
1989 Tim Wallach MON 13 3 7 -4.54
1996 Garret Anderson CAL 16 1 9 -4.52
2000 Peter Bergeron MON 24 0 13 -4.49
1986 Omar Moreno ATL 36 3 16 -4.49
1997 Sammy Sosa CHN 37 3 12 -4.48
2004 Jerry Hairston BAL 22 3 11 -4.48
1997 Melvin Nieves DET 9 1 7 -4.47
1997 Brady Anderson BAL 31 3 11 -4.44
2002 Cristian Guzman MIN 23 0 13 -4.44
1997 Darryl Hamilton SFN 26 2 10 -4.44
1982 Charlie Moore MIL 13 1 10 -4.42
1982 Rod Carew CAL 27 0 17 -4.41
1991 Benito Santiago SDN 19 1 10 -4.40
1998 Raul Mondesi LAN 28 2 10 -4.38
1984 Rafael Ramirez ATL 31 0 17 -4.38
2001 Chipper Jones ATL 18 0 10 -4.36
2000 Warren Morris PIT 18 2 12 -4.36
1995 Jacob Brumfield PIT 37 3 12 -4.35
1997 Curtis Goodwin CIN 36 2 13 -4.33
1998 Chuck Knoblauch NYA 43 3 12 -4.33
2000 Jose Offerman BOS 8 0 8 -4.29
1986 Chili Davis SFN 29 1 13 -4.29
1990 Ozzie Guillen CHA 30 1 17 -4.29
2005 Oscar Robles LAN 8 0 8 -4.26
1997 Mickey Morandini PHI 29 0 13 -4.26
1986 Scott Fletcher TEX 25 3 11 -4.25
1983 Carney Lansford OAK 11 0 8 -4.23
1990 Carney Lansford OAK 27 0 14 -4.22
1990 Mike Devereaux BAL 26 2 12 -4.22
1994 Charlie Hayes COL 11 2 6 -4.21
1982 George Vukovich PHI 11 1 9 -4.21
1980 Elliott Maddox NYN 10 0 9 -4.20
2005 Brady Clark MIL 23 0 13 -4.20
2003 Casey Blake CLE 16 0 9 -4.19
1993 Mark McLemore BAL 37 1 15 -4.19
2006 Bill Hall MIL 17 1 10 -4.19
1996 Jeff Cirillo MIL 13 0 9 -4.18
1983 Alfredo Griffin TOR 21 2 11 -4.18
1993 Mickey Tettleton DET 11 1 7 -4.13
1982 Joe Simpson SEA 22 0 14 -4.13
1983 Brett Butler ATL 67 5 23 -4.12
1996 John Cangelosi HOU 28 2 9 -4.12
1991 Ellis Burks BOS 18 1 11 -4.11
2000 Jay Payton NYN 17 1 12 -4.10
2001 Randy Winn TBA 23 1 11 -4.07
1984 Marvell Wynne PIT 44 1 19 -4.07
1997 Paul O'Neill NYA 17 1 7 -4.06
2002 Carlos Lee CHA 8 3 7 -4.06
1982 Todd Cruz SEA 12 0 10 -4.06
1989 Hubie Brooks MON 17 0 11 -4.03
2002 Rafael Furcal ATL 42 0 15 -4.02
1980 Rick Burleson BOS 26 2 13 -4.02
2005 Jeromy Burnitz CHN 12 3 7 -4.02
1992 Jose Offerman LAN 40 2 16 -4.02
1987 Scott Fletcher TEX 25 2 12 -4.01
1994 Spike Owen CAL 10 0 8 -4.00

5 comments:

Jacob said...

Cool Dan! This might be an interesting metric for a manager, too.

I've long felt that Ned Yost just simply puts far too much underserved faith in guys on the basepaths. He really likes to roll the dice. Him being at least partially responsible for Brady Clark's 2005 and Bill Hall's 2006 vindicates that notion for me somewhat. Note that's 1/4 of the 2005 terrible seasons and 1/2 of the 2006 terrible seasons.

Would love to see the team totals for the Milwaukee Brewers 2003-2006. Yes, a lot of it is on the players, but Brady Clark had no business running, ever, in 2005, and that's on Ned Yost.

Tangotiger said...

Dan,

You may be interested in this research:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/7/29/181346/885

Which correlates the basestealing using Win Expectancy against "static" run values, to come up with "cluch" base stealing.

Pip said...

That Tim Raines shows up so many times in the leaders list should also bolster his HOF credentials. He's fifth all-time in SBs with 808, but his EqSBR feats contextualize that figure.

Tangotiger said...

According to the Oswalt link (see preceding link), Raines's basestealing adds 16 wins, just short of Rickey's 17 wins. That is an enormous number. That's the equivalent of over 100 HR.

That adds 10 points to his OBP and 45 points to his SLG, turning his .385/.425 into .395/.470.

His OPS+ goes from 123 to 137.

Dan Agonistes said...

Thanks for the link Tom. Somehow I missed that.

pip, excluding 1999 Tim Raines has a commanding lead in total EqSBR at 100.7 with Ricky Henderson second at 78.6 despite over 700 more opportunities. Willie Wilson is third at 68.0 and Vince Coleman fourth at 50.9. Everyone else is below 40. Tim Wallach was last at -26.5.