Today we'll take a look at the Florida Marlins running game to compliment the Hope and Faith piece Christina Kahrl wrote for BP today.
From an overall perspective the Marlins finished 16th in baseball at -7.09 runs. When EqSBR is taken out of the equation they finish second behind the Angels at +8.88 runs since they finished dead last at -15.98 in EqSBR. As you can see from the table below the reason for their poor showing was the combination of Wes Helms, Dan Uggla, Reggie Abercrombie, Miguel Cabrera, and Alfredo Amezaga who accounted for -12.76 and recorded 37 stolen bases, 33 caught stealing, and were picked off 4 times for good measure. 
On the other hand Hanley Ramirez (pictured left) placed second overall at +8.89 runs just behind Chone Figgins of the Angels. I've mentioned before that in the games I personally saw Ramirez play I saw hime twice stretch singles into doubles as outfielders lazily retrieved ground balls. Meanwhile Josh Willingham took the distinction as the worst baserunner of 2006 in The 2007 Bill James Handbook but in these metrics placed 659th out of 666 players at -4.72 runs. I published a critique of the James methodology in a column late last year. Essentially the James system doesn't take into account as much context as these metrics do by considering the fielder who fielded the ball and the number of outs as well as other baserunners. However, James does include some additional categories that I had not considered. Advancing on wild pitches and passed balls and perhaps even balks are categories that should be included in a total measure of baserunning. This is the flip side of the excellent work done by Sean Forman on catchers. They were omitted from the metrics I developed but will be included in the future. However, I'm a little hesitant to include advancing on defensive indifference. While it probably is correlated with speed and therefore baserunning, the value of advancing in those scenarios is so questionable, and the opportunities to do so coupled with the difficulty of judging when a runner is in such a situation add it up to my conclusion that including those occasions makes little sense.
Equivalent Stolen Base Runs
Name Team SB PO CS EqSBR
Hanley Ramirez FLO 51 0 15 1.45
Mike Jacobs FLO 3 0 0 0.53
Jeremy Hermida FLO 4 0 1 0.20
Robert Andino FLO 1 0 0 0.15
Jason Wood FLO 1 0 0 0.10
Cody Ross FLO 0 0 1 -0.24
Matt Treanor FLO 0 0 1 -0.24
Eric Reed FLO 3 1 1 -0.38
Chris Aguila FLO 1 0 1 -0.74
Anibal Sanchez FLO 0 1 0 -0.84
Joe Borchard FLO 0 0 2 -0.87
Miguel Olivo FLO 2 0 3 -1.04
Josh Willingham FLO 2 3 0 -1.31
Wes Helms FLO 0 0 4 -1.96
Dan Uggla FLO 6 1 6 -2.60
Reggie AbercrombieFLO 6 2 5 -2.69
Miguel Cabrera FLO 6 0 6 -2.70
Alfredo Amezaga FLO 19 1 12 -2.82
Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs
Name Team Opp OA ExHAR EqHAR HARate
Dan Uggla FLO 46 1 6.67 2.82 142
Hanley Ramirez FLO 50 0 8.74 2.78 132
Alfredo Amezaga FLO 22 0 5.08 2.08 141
Jeremy Hermida FLO 21 0 2.26 1.54 168
Reggie AbercrombieFLO 26 0 5.89 1.23 121
Eric Reed FLO 3 0 1.05 0.48 145
Scott Olsen FLO 1 0 0.32 0.46 242
Chris Aguila FLO 6 0 0.32 0.20 163
Brian Moehler FLO 1 0 0.02 -0.02 0
Sergio Mitre FLO 1 0 0.02 -0.02 0
Josh Johnson FLO 1 0 0.03 -0.03 0
Yusmeiro Petit FLO 1 0 0.03 -0.03 0
Miguel Olivo FLO 20 0 4.43 -0.03 99
Anibal Sanchez FLO 1 0 0.04 -0.04 0
Matt Cepicky FLO 1 0 0.05 -0.05 0
Dontrelle Willis FLO 9 0 0.56 -0.12 79
Joe Borchard FLO 15 0 1.00 -0.17 83
Miguel Cabrera FLO 75 1 15.22 -0.21 99
Matt Treanor FLO 6 0 0.65 -0.21 68
Wes Helms FLO 9 0 2.03 -0.27 86
Cody Ross FLO 16 1 2.14 -0.65 70
Mike Jacobs FLO 42 1 3.60 -0.75 79
Ricky Nolasco FLO 3 0 1.16 -1.16 0
Josh Willingham FLO 26 2 2.61 -2.61 0
Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs
Name Team Opp ExGAR EqGAR GARate
Hanley Ramirez FLO 44 5.06 3.08 1.61
Alfredo Amezaga FLO 35 2.08 0.87 1.42
Joe Borchard FLO 12 0.63 0.67 2.06
Miguel Cabrera FLO 28 1.68 0.46 1.27
Reggie AbercrombieFLO 18 1.14 0.29 1.26
Dontrelle Willis FLO 2 0.05 0.25 5.70
Matt Treanor FLO 12 1.32 0.21 1.16
Cody Ross FLO 10 0.49 0.12 1.24
Miguel Olivo FLO 35 2.73 0.08 1.03
Scott Olsen FLO 2 0.20 0.06 1.32
Paul Hoover FLO 1 0.01 -0.01 0.00
Anibal Sanchez FLO 1 0.01 -0.01 0.00
Jeremy Hermida FLO 18 0.95 -0.01 0.99
Jason Vargas FLO 1 0.02 -0.02 0.00
Jose Garcia FLO 1 0.03 -0.03 0.00
Dan Uggla FLO 25 1.43 -0.03 0.98
Ricky Nolasco FLO 2 0.05 -0.05 0.00
Chris Aguila FLO 3 0.32 -0.06 0.83
Mike Jacobs FLO 12 0.31 -0.08 0.73
Robert Andino FLO 1 0.13 -0.13 0.00
Eric Reed FLO 4 0.36 -0.17 0.52
Josh Willingham FLO 14 0.83 -0.48 0.42
Wes Helms FLO 16 1.35 -0.92 0.32
Equivalent Air Advancement Runs
Name Team Opps ExAAR EqAAR AARate
Hanley Ramirez FLO 26 4.08 1.57 1.38
Dan Uggla FLO 27 2.65 0.95 1.36
Cody Ross FLO 8 1.31 0.43 1.33
Miguel Olivo FLO 7 0.65 0.41 1.63
Mike Jacobs FLO 13 1.53 0.35 1.23
Anibal Sanchez FLO 1 0.54 0.20 1.38
Ricky Nolasco FLO 2 0.47 0.19 1.41
Chris Aguila FLO 3 0.60 0.15 1.24
Robert Andino FLO 2 -0.01 0.01 0.00
Dontrelle Willis FLO 2 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brian Moehler FLO 1 0.00 0.00 0.00
Josh Johnson FLO 1 0.01 -0.01 0.00
Alfredo Amezaga FLO 10 1.26 -0.06 0.96
Eric Reed FLO 2 0.08 -0.08 0.00
Joe Borchard FLO 8 1.44 -0.08 0.94
Miguel Cabrera FLO 42 4.12 -0.18 0.96
Reggie AbercrombieFLO 9 1.89 -0.18 0.91
Josh Willingham FLO 14 1.05 -0.31 0.70
Matt Treanor FLO 6 0.67 -0.67 0.00
Wes Helms FLO 14 1.33 -1.33 0.00
Jeremy Hermida FLO 14 2.50 -1.71 0.32
Kelly Shoppach CLE 5 0.49 -1.09 -1.21
125x125_10off+copy.jpg)
No comments:
Post a Comment