FREE hit counter and Internet traffic statistics from

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

More on Leverage

Last week in my column on BP I took a look at the various aspects of Leverage (using Keith Woolner's definition) and broke it down by lineup position, inning, and score differential as well as taking a quick look at pinch hitting.

In that discussion I provided a table that broke down each of the high level events in 2006 by it's average WX value. Reader feedback prompted me to amend that table by breaking out sacrifice hits and flies on the Unfiltered site.

In addition, several readers have asked about the breakdown of Leverage by half inning. So here it is graphically broken down into two graphs for easier reading.

As you can see in innings one through eight the Leverage is lower in the bottom half of the inning than in the top. That's the case since the score is more likely to be tied at the beginning of each inning and in fact the average score differential in innings one through eight is lower in the top half than in the bottom half of each inning. In innings 9 and higher the situation is more interesting. In inning 9 the Leverage goes way up in the bottom half of the inning since when it is played the home team is typically not being blown out (and getting a runner or two on raises the Leverage dramatically since a single run can often win or tie the game) whereas the Leverage in the top half continues to decline in the ninth inning. In the 10th inning and beyond (aggregated in the second graph as "10") the Leverage for the bottom half of the inning remains higher despite the score differential actually being higher since a single run often allows the home team to win.

No comments: