Team Running - Cleveland Indians

Today we'll continue our series on team baserunning by looking at the Cleveland Indians. I've had occasion to get pretty familiar with the Indians over the last week or two in researching my piece Hope and Faith: How the Cleveland Indians Can Win the World Series which is up on Baseball Prospectus today.

In short, the Indians have really increased the depth of their lineup with the additions of David Delluci and Trot Nixon in outfield platoon situations to go along with Sin-Soo Choo, Jason Michaels, and Casey Blake. They'll also likely get a little more offense and alot better defense out of the combination of Andy Marte at third base and Josh Barfield at second. The starting rotation remains strong as well although there are questions related to Jeremy Sowers, who PECOTA is not hopeful about. That leaves the bullpen which was, to put it as kindly as possible, historically bad in 2006. GM Mark Shapiro is betting on a trio of ancient relievers in Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez, and Aaron Fultz (not to mention Cliff Politte) to at least be league average and perhaps the development of Fernando Cabrera. In the end this team seems to be poised to be right back where they were in 2005 in contending for a division title.


Overall, the Indians ranked 14th in total baserunning at -6.81 and were most hurt by a -3.49 in EqGAR. When taking out EqSBR they ranked 22nd by racking up -3.77 EqSBR despite having just 82 EqSBR opportunities. As expected Grady Sizemore (pictured left) was the team's top baserunner picking up 5.16 run overall and ranking 11th in baseball. On the flip side Victor Martinez ranked dead last (666th) at -5.73 and as mentioned in a previous post despite starting in 2002 has the 8th lowest total since 2000 at -13.6.

The Indians are also a good illustration of the variability inherent in these metrics. By all accounts Sizemore is an excellent baserunner which is reflected in his advancement on hits and ground balls. He scores poorly in advancement on fly balls and in part that is the case since EqAAR is the most variable by virtue of the greater cost associated with getting thrown out (usually at home). Jhonny Peralta is on the other side of this as he scores poorly in EqHAR and EqGAR (which is very likely more reflective of his true baserunning ability since he scored -0.87, -0.08, and -1.26 from 2003 through 2005) but does well in EqAAR.

For 2007 one would think that jettisoning Aaron Boone (-2.14), Ben Broussard (-0.63), and Ronnie Belliard (-1.04) as well as picking up Josh Barfield (+3.64 and ranking 20th in 2006) will only help matters.

Equivalent Stolen Base Runs
Name               Team     SB    PO     CS  EqSBR
Grady Sizemore     CLE      22     1      6   0.93
Joe Inglett        CLE       5     0      1   0.70
Casey Blake        CLE       6     1      0   0.40
Ronnie Belliard    CLE       2     0      0   0.39
Lou Merloni        CLE       1     0      0   0.10
Ryan Garko         CLE       0     1      0  -0.24
Todd Hollandsworth CLE       0     0      1  -0.24
Jhonny Peralta     CLE       0     0      1  -0.44
Hector Luna        CLE       0     0      1  -0.63
Shin-Soo Choo      CLE       5     0      3  -0.78
Ben Broussard      CLE       0     1      1  -1.24
Jason Michaels     CLE       9     0      5  -1.33
Aaron Boone        CLE       5     0      4  -1.39

Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs
Name              Team     Opp    OA  ExHAR  EqHAR  HARate
Grady Sizemore     CLE      67     0   8.31   3.46     142
Jason Michaels     CLE      42     0   8.38   3.24     139
Shin-Soo Choo      CLE      10     0   1.29   0.81     163
Casey Blake        CLE      42     1   7.06   0.44     106
Ramon Vazquez      CLE       9     0   0.47   0.42     189
Franklin Gutierrez CLE      15     0   2.47   0.42     117
Ronnie Belliard    CLE      27     0   3.73   0.42     111
Hector Luna        CLE       6     0   1.92   0.38     120
Todd Hollandsworth CLE       5     0   0.94   0.21     122
Eduardo Perez      CLE       6     0   0.32   0.15     146
Joe Inglett        CLE      10     0   2.53  -0.03      99
Kelly Shoppach     CLE       4     0   0.78  -0.03      96
Travis Hafner      CLE      50     1   7.22  -0.04      99
Jake Westbrook     CLE       1     0   0.08  -0.08       0
Lou Merloni        CLE       1     0   0.08  -0.08       0
Andy Marte         CLE       5     0   0.92  -0.17      82
Ben Broussard      CLE      21     1   3.15  -0.34      89
Aaron Boone        CLE      29     1   4.44  -1.00      77
Ryan Garko         CLE      18     0   2.49  -1.34      46
Jhonny Peralta     CLE      50     1   8.08  -2.44      70
Victor Martinez    CLE      62     1   9.45  -4.90      48

Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs
Name              Team     Opp ExGAR  EqGAR GARate
Grady Sizemore     CLE      46  4.54   1.29   1.28
Franklin Gutierrez CLE       7  0.56   0.21   1.38
Hector Luna        CLE       7  0.39   0.17   1.45
Ben Broussard      CLE      12  1.18   0.12   1.10
Ryan Garko         CLE       5  0.23   0.08   1.33
Shin-Soo Choo      CLE       8  0.68   0.05   1.08
Todd Hollandsworth CLE       3  0.29   0.04   1.14
Joe Inglett        CLE       8  0.42   0.02   1.05
Eduardo Perez      CLE       6  0.11  -0.01   0.89
Ramon Vazquez      CLE       1  0.02  -0.02   0.00
Andy Marte         CLE       4  0.12  -0.09   0.28
C.C. Sabathia      CLE       1  0.09  -0.09   0.00
Aaron Boone        CLE      15  0.83  -0.15   0.82
Kevin Kouzmanoff   CLE       3  0.21  -0.21   0.00
Ronnie Belliard    CLE      14  0.46  -0.27   0.40
Kelly Shoppach     CLE       5  0.63  -0.37   0.42
Jason Michaels     CLE      18  1.51  -0.40   0.73
Travis Hafner      CLE      31  1.90  -0.84   0.56
Victor Martinez    CLE      29  1.83  -0.97   0.47
Casey Blake        CLE      19  2.14  -1.00   0.53
Jhonny Peralta     CLE      25  1.47  -1.06   0.28

Equivalent Air Advancement Runs
Name              Team    Opps ExAAR  EqAAR AARate
Jhonny Peralta     CLE      23  2.69   1.04   1.39
Jason Michaels     CLE      27  2.68   0.83   1.31
Franklin Gutierrez CLE       8  2.14   0.46   1.22
Ramon Vazquez      CLE       5  1.30   0.45   1.35
Aaron Boone        CLE      17  1.53   0.40   1.26
Joe Inglett        CLE       4  0.58   0.21   1.37
Ronnie Belliard    CLE      12  1.97   0.16   1.08
Victor Martinez    CLE      24  2.20   0.13   1.06
Hector Luna        CLE       2  0.62   0.12   1.20
Andy Marte         CLE       5  0.25   0.10   1.42
Ben Broussard      CLE       9  0.02   0.04   3.15
Travis Hafner      CLE      23  1.28   0.03   1.02
Lou Merloni        CLE       1 -0.01   0.01   0.00
Tim Laker          CLE       1  0.01  -0.01   0.00
Kevin Kouzmanoff   CLE       1  0.01  -0.01   0.00
Eduardo Perez      CLE       1  0.14  -0.14   0.00
Todd Hollandsworth CLE       7  1.46  -0.19   0.87
Shin-Soo Choo      CLE       6  0.00  -0.19 -39.57
Ryan Garko         CLE       5  0.20  -0.20   0.00
Casey Blake        CLE      16  2.47  -0.48   0.80
Grady Sizemore     CLE      42  3.97  -0.53   0.87
Kelly Shoppach     CLE       5  0.49  -1.09  -1.21