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Friday, March 02, 2007

Team Running - Cleveland Indians

Today we'll continue our series on team baserunning by looking at the Cleveland Indians. I've had occasion to get pretty familiar with the Indians over the last week or two in researching my piece Hope and Faith: How the Cleveland Indians Can Win the World Series which is up on Baseball Prospectus today.

In short, the Indians have really increased the depth of their lineup with the additions of David Delluci and Trot Nixon in outfield platoon situations to go along with Sin-Soo Choo, Jason Michaels, and Casey Blake. They'll also likely get a little more offense and alot better defense out of the combination of Andy Marte at third base and Josh Barfield at second. The starting rotation remains strong as well although there are questions related to Jeremy Sowers, who PECOTA is not hopeful about. That leaves the bullpen which was, to put it as kindly as possible, historically bad in 2006. GM Mark Shapiro is betting on a trio of ancient relievers in Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez, and Aaron Fultz (not to mention Cliff Politte) to at least be league average and perhaps the development of Fernando Cabrera. In the end this team seems to be poised to be right back where they were in 2005 in contending for a division title.


Overall, the Indians ranked 14th in total baserunning at -6.81 and were most hurt by a -3.49 in EqGAR. When taking out EqSBR they ranked 22nd by racking up -3.77 EqSBR despite having just 82 EqSBR opportunities. As expected Grady Sizemore (pictured left) was the team's top baserunner picking up 5.16 run overall and ranking 11th in baseball. On the flip side Victor Martinez ranked dead last (666th) at -5.73 and as mentioned in a previous post despite starting in 2002 has the 8th lowest total since 2000 at -13.6.

The Indians are also a good illustration of the variability inherent in these metrics. By all accounts Sizemore is an excellent baserunner which is reflected in his advancement on hits and ground balls. He scores poorly in advancement on fly balls and in part that is the case since EqAAR is the most variable by virtue of the greater cost associated with getting thrown out (usually at home). Jhonny Peralta is on the other side of this as he scores poorly in EqHAR and EqGAR (which is very likely more reflective of his true baserunning ability since he scored -0.87, -0.08, and -1.26 from 2003 through 2005) but does well in EqAAR.

For 2007 one would think that jettisoning Aaron Boone (-2.14), Ben Broussard (-0.63), and Ronnie Belliard (-1.04) as well as picking up Josh Barfield (+3.64 and ranking 20th in 2006) will only help matters.



Equivalent Stolen Base Runs
Name Team SB PO CS EqSBR
Grady Sizemore CLE 22 1 6 0.93
Joe Inglett CLE 5 0 1 0.70
Casey Blake CLE 6 1 0 0.40
Ronnie Belliard CLE 2 0 0 0.39
Lou Merloni CLE 1 0 0 0.10
Ryan Garko CLE 0 1 0 -0.24
Todd Hollandsworth CLE 0 0 1 -0.24
Jhonny Peralta CLE 0 0 1 -0.44
Hector Luna CLE 0 0 1 -0.63
Shin-Soo Choo CLE 5 0 3 -0.78
Ben Broussard CLE 0 1 1 -1.24
Jason Michaels CLE 9 0 5 -1.33
Aaron Boone CLE 5 0 4 -1.39

Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs
Name Team Opp OA ExHAR EqHAR HARate
Grady Sizemore CLE 67 0 8.31 3.46 142
Jason Michaels CLE 42 0 8.38 3.24 139
Shin-Soo Choo CLE 10 0 1.29 0.81 163
Casey Blake CLE 42 1 7.06 0.44 106
Ramon Vazquez CLE 9 0 0.47 0.42 189
Franklin Gutierrez CLE 15 0 2.47 0.42 117
Ronnie Belliard CLE 27 0 3.73 0.42 111
Hector Luna CLE 6 0 1.92 0.38 120
Todd Hollandsworth CLE 5 0 0.94 0.21 122
Eduardo Perez CLE 6 0 0.32 0.15 146
Joe Inglett CLE 10 0 2.53 -0.03 99
Kelly Shoppach CLE 4 0 0.78 -0.03 96
Travis Hafner CLE 50 1 7.22 -0.04 99
Jake Westbrook CLE 1 0 0.08 -0.08 0
Lou Merloni CLE 1 0 0.08 -0.08 0
Andy Marte CLE 5 0 0.92 -0.17 82
Ben Broussard CLE 21 1 3.15 -0.34 89
Aaron Boone CLE 29 1 4.44 -1.00 77
Ryan Garko CLE 18 0 2.49 -1.34 46
Jhonny Peralta CLE 50 1 8.08 -2.44 70
Victor Martinez CLE 62 1 9.45 -4.90 48

Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs
Name Team Opp ExGAR EqGAR GARate
Grady Sizemore CLE 46 4.54 1.29 1.28
Franklin Gutierrez CLE 7 0.56 0.21 1.38
Hector Luna CLE 7 0.39 0.17 1.45
Ben Broussard CLE 12 1.18 0.12 1.10
Ryan Garko CLE 5 0.23 0.08 1.33
Shin-Soo Choo CLE 8 0.68 0.05 1.08
Todd Hollandsworth CLE 3 0.29 0.04 1.14
Joe Inglett CLE 8 0.42 0.02 1.05
Eduardo Perez CLE 6 0.11 -0.01 0.89
Ramon Vazquez CLE 1 0.02 -0.02 0.00
Andy Marte CLE 4 0.12 -0.09 0.28
C.C. Sabathia CLE 1 0.09 -0.09 0.00
Aaron Boone CLE 15 0.83 -0.15 0.82
Kevin Kouzmanoff CLE 3 0.21 -0.21 0.00
Ronnie Belliard CLE 14 0.46 -0.27 0.40
Kelly Shoppach CLE 5 0.63 -0.37 0.42
Jason Michaels CLE 18 1.51 -0.40 0.73
Travis Hafner CLE 31 1.90 -0.84 0.56
Victor Martinez CLE 29 1.83 -0.97 0.47
Casey Blake CLE 19 2.14 -1.00 0.53
Jhonny Peralta CLE 25 1.47 -1.06 0.28

Equivalent Air Advancement Runs
Name Team Opps ExAAR EqAAR AARate
Jhonny Peralta CLE 23 2.69 1.04 1.39
Jason Michaels CLE 27 2.68 0.83 1.31
Franklin Gutierrez CLE 8 2.14 0.46 1.22
Ramon Vazquez CLE 5 1.30 0.45 1.35
Aaron Boone CLE 17 1.53 0.40 1.26
Joe Inglett CLE 4 0.58 0.21 1.37
Ronnie Belliard CLE 12 1.97 0.16 1.08
Victor Martinez CLE 24 2.20 0.13 1.06
Hector Luna CLE 2 0.62 0.12 1.20
Andy Marte CLE 5 0.25 0.10 1.42
Ben Broussard CLE 9 0.02 0.04 3.15
Travis Hafner CLE 23 1.28 0.03 1.02
Lou Merloni CLE 1 -0.01 0.01 0.00
Tim Laker CLE 1 0.01 -0.01 0.00
Kevin Kouzmanoff CLE 1 0.01 -0.01 0.00
Eduardo Perez CLE 1 0.14 -0.14 0.00
Todd Hollandsworth CLE 7 1.46 -0.19 0.87
Shin-Soo Choo CLE 6 0.00 -0.19 -39.57
Ryan Garko CLE 5 0.20 -0.20 0.00
Casey Blake CLE 16 2.47 -0.48 0.80
Grady Sizemore CLE 42 3.97 -0.53 0.87
Kelly Shoppach CLE 5 0.49 -1.09 -1.21

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