Dr. Stat Attacks!

Very funny stuff from Joe Posnanski. When I was at Tropicana last year they had no such cartoon but given the atmosphere they're trying to create there and the ginormous video screen that dominates the venue, it doesn't surprise me.

Baseball's Trifecta

This article originally appeared on Baseball Prospectus on September 28, 2006.

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September 28, 2006

Schrodinger's Bat: Baseball's Trifecta
by Dan Fox

"I think if you come to the ballpark and you see Carl hit a triple, you've had a pretty good day. It's pretty much a signature play for him, because when he hits the ball down the line, or in the gap, he's thinking three. He never thinks two. He breaks triple. He wants triple, he takes triple."

--Devil Rays manager Joe Maddon after Carl Crawford's triple on September 24.

"Hey, big mouth, how do you spell triple?"

--Shoeless Joe Jackson, to a heckling Cleveland fan who taunted him by asking if he could spell "illiterate." This was his response after hitting a triple.

In the bottom of the sixth inning of last Sunday's Yankees/Devil Rays game, Carl Crawford pulled Mike Myers' 1-0 slider into the gap in right-center. The ball skidded past Bobby Abreu, and by the time he retrieved it and hit the cutoff man, both runners had scored and Crawford had coasted into third. It was his 15th triple of the season.

As much as I disdain more or less arbitrary statistical milestones, the hit did draw some attention, since it made Crawford the first player in 76 years to hit at least 15 triples in three straight seasons. In that year, 1930, no fewer than three players were finishing a run of three or more years with 15 triples or more:

                 1930  1929  1928  1927  1926
---------------------------------------------
Earle Combs        22    15    21    23
Paul Waner         18    15    19    18    22
Charlie Gehringer  15    19    16

By comparison, Crawford hit 19 triples in 2004, 15 last year, and now 15 this season. When asked after the game why he thought it had been so long since a player accomplished the feat, Crawford replied, "There are fast guys in the game who can hit, so I have no clue why guys haven't done it. That's not a stat that you go out and try to do every year. That's a stat that just happens."

Crawford's achievement and his comment provide a springboard for this week's column, where we'll discuss triples and their accompanying historical trends.

Historically Speaking

The simple and somewhat tautological answer to Crawford's consternation regarding the lack of triples is that the triple has become increasingly rare over time. And just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a low tide grounds them. The following graph shows the number of triples per 500 at-bats plus walks for each year from 1901 through 2005:



Notice that, as it did for offense in general, the robust environment of 1930 marked the high point for triples, with 6.8 triples hit per 500 AB+BB. The rate dropped immiediatly thereafter, to 5.7 in 1931 and 1932, and it never again reached as high as 5.3. It now seems to have stabilized at around 2.5.

If there are fewer triples being hit, then it becomes less likely that an individual player will be able to hit 15 in three consecutive seasons. For example, a player who hits 15 triples would have a rate of 12.5 per 500 AB+BB. In 1930, a player who hit triples at 1.8 times the rate of the average player would end up with 15 triples, and eleven of the 73 players with 500 or more AB+BB hit 15 or more triples in 1930. In 2005, however, a 15-triple player would have to hit triples at a rate more than five times that of the average player, and just two players (Crawford and Jose Reyes, who hit 17) out of 140 with 500 or more AB+BB could do that. It should be noted that 2005 was a comparatively good year for three-baggers: since 1992, there have been ten seasons in which no player has hit 15 triples. In contrast, when 10-15% of the players hit 15 or more triples every year, there is a very good chance that one or more of those players will repeat for three consecutive years.

As an aside, the general reduction in triples makes the performance of Cory Sullivan on April 9 even more of a fluke. In the top of the fifth inning, Sullivan hit two triples in a seven-run outburst that helped the Rockies beat Jake Peavy and the Padres 10-4. Those two triples tied a record held by ten others, although most recently accomplished by the Senators' Gil Coan in 1951.

The graph also shows the spike in triples that occurred between the years 1974 and 1980. As you can see, triples had been declining steadily since 1930, reaching a low of 2.72 in 1973. From there they began to climb again, reaching a high point of 3.71 in 1977 before gradually declining to settle back down at the 1973 level by 1986. Note that 1977, like 1930, was a relatively big offensive year, with teams scoring 4.47 runs per game. Offensive levels continued to rise throughout the period, and so it can't simply be chalked up to more hits resulting in more triples. But since there weren't new parks being introduced, and expansion occurred in the middle of the spike and not at its start, it's not obvious what might have caused it the outburst.

At first blush, one might posit that there was a general trend towards valuing speed that began in the early to mid-1970s, as young players like Ron LeFlore, Tim Raines, Willie Wilson, and Omar Moreno began to establish themselves. The increase in stolen bases, however, is more gradual than that for triples, and actually began around 1959 (with the "Go-Go Sox" and Maury Wills playing a large part) with a steeper increase in the mid-1970s that peaked in another year that was good for offense, 1987, as shown in the following graph:



While all of this is interesting, it kind of tiptoes around the answer that Crawford is looking for (he probably doesn't really care, but play along). Although there doesn't appear to be consensus among the analytical community, the following are the theories most often discussed as to why the triple has become relatively rare:

• Better Fielders. One of the more interesting questions is to consider how the game has changed as the players have become more athletic. Clearly the speed, strength, size and athletic ability of the average professional baseball player in 2005 exceed that of one in 1920. The question is, how does this affect the game and the evaluation of performance? This was recently touched on by Phil Birnbaum on his Sabermetric Research blog, and was the subject of a thought-provoking chapter by Nate Silver in Baseball Between the Numbers.
  
  As an example of such an effect, the late Stephen Jay Gould argued that a rising level of play inching closer to the "right-wall" of human ability coupled with stabilization of the game itself have conspired to decrease the variability in seasonal batting averages, making it far more difficult to hit .400 now than in years past. The epitome of Gould's argument is that Tony Gwynn had less opportunity than Ty Cobb to exploit the inferiority of others.
  
  Something like this may be happening with triples as well. The theory is that as fielders have become bigger, faster, and boast better throwing arms, would-be triple hitters have had a more difficult time exploiting their opponents, and thus rack up fewer three-baggers. In addition, the standardization of positioning (including the idea that outfielders played shallower in the past) and cutoffs have added to the difficulty. Although baserunners have also become faster, this theory would argue that the improvement in fielding ability and techniques has outstripped the increase in baserunner speed.
  
  
• Park Configuration. This is a corollary to the first theory. Early in the century, ballpark dimensions were far less standardized than today. For example, the Huntington Avenue Grounds where the Red Sox played from 1901-1911 featured a left-center field fence 440 feet away, and a centerfield wall 530 feet from home plate from 1901-1907, and then at 635 feet starting in 1908. Similarly, the center field fence at Forbes Field was 462 feet away in 1909, and at the Polo Grounds, center field ranged from 430 feet in 1931 to 505 feet in 1949. Don't forget that while these and other ballparks in the two eight-team leagues had one or more long distances, they also had lots of corners and edges that made for unpredictable caroms. All of this adds up to situations which surely allowed hitters more opportunity to leg out triples.
  
  Over time, standard dimensions (335/375/400/375/335) made their way into the game, diminishing the opportunity for strange bounces and balls rolling towards distant fences with outfielders in hot pursuit. For my money, the combination of this and the first cause probably explain the lion's share of the overall historical trend.
  
  
• Risk Aversion. As mentioned previously, as offensive levels rise, the relative importance of stolen bases decrease. The same reason causes triples to decline in value; the marginal benefit of stretching a double into a triple is lessened as the probability of scoring from second base increases. A quick look at Run Expectancy Matrices from various years would bear this out as well as the graph presented in my column on Win Expectancy. The argument, then, is that as offensive levels have risen over time, triples have decreased as a result of their lessening strategic importance.
  
  While the premise of this theory is certainly true, one doubts whether calculations like this are taken into account either consciously or subconsciously. More problematic, however, is the fact that runs per game have not increased over time, therefore cutting the legs out from under this theory. Contrary to the steadily downward-sloping line in the first graph, run scoring was actually higher throughout the 1920s and into the early 1930s than at any other time, and after diminishing to reach its low point in 1968 (3.42 runs per game per team), it has steadily increased since then:
  
  
  
  
• Player Aging. No discussion of triples would be complete without at least a brief look at the effect of age. As Clay Davenport noted in his essay "Graying the Game" in Baseball Prospectus 2002, and subsequently reinforced by Nate Silver last season, the player population is aging, and has been for quite some time. This has an impact on triples, since older players lose foot speed and don't hit as many as younger ones do. The graph below shows triples per 500 AB+BB for all players since 1901, player-seasons from 1901-1935 and seasons from 1936-2005:
  
  
  
  Even at a time when triples were much more common (the orange line), triples peaked at age 22 and steadily declined through age 40. You'll also notice that the slope of the line for players in the first part of the 20th century is not quite so steep as it is for those since. I also find it very interesting that the slope of the line from ages 22 through 35 for all players is very nearly straight, indicating an extremely uniform decrease with age.
  
  Clearly, players don't hit as many triples as they get older, but the general aging of the player population cannot account for the overall decrease in triples. Just considering players 25 years old or younger, those who played since 1936 hit triples at a rate of 3.72 per 500 AB+BB, while those who played before 1936 hit them at a rate of 6.73. Keep in mind that it's also very likely that the average speed of players 25 years old and younger in the major leagues today is greater than that in the Deadball Era, meaning that other factors such as fielding prowess and changing park configurations are much more important to the overall trend.
  

"How do you spell triple?"

The triple is often called the most exciting play in baseball, and for good reason. There is no play that involves as many players, lasts as long, and concludes so often with a bang-bang crescendo. As we've seen, there are a variety of reasons that have conspired to make it a much rarer event today than it was in days past. These include increased standardization and ability on defense, less variability in park dimensions, risk aversion, and perhaps an aging player population. Whatever the combination and relative importance of these different causes, rather than wring our hands at its disappearance, let's instead appreciate the feat for its increased difficulty and marvel at those, like Carl Crawford, who can do it with regularity.

Profiling a Ray

The always fascingating Marc Normandin allowed me to horn in on his regular gig this week and contribute a little PITCHf/x analysis to his player profile of the Rays (not Devil) James Shields. Unfortunately Shields had just eight of his 31 starts recorded by PITCHf/x but still the 712 pitches does allow us to see some definite patterns. The article does not require a subscription.

SFR in the Infield - AL East

Today we'll look at the AL East infielders in terms of SFR...

                                                   Ex
Name                   Team      POS      Balls Runners Runners     SFR
Steve Trachsel         BAL        1          32       3       0     1.9
Jeremy Guthrie         BAL        1          22       2       0     1.8
Erik Bedard            BAL        1          17       2       0     1.4
Chad Bradford          BAL        1          17       1       1     0.3
Daniel Cabrera         BAL        1          18       2       5    -2.3
Ramon Hernandez        BAL        2          26       2       2     0.1
Chris Gomez            BAL        3          32       5       4     0.4
Aubrey Huff            BAL        3          83      13      15    -2.0
Kevin Millar           BAL        3         207      32      35    -2.7
Brian Roberts          BAL        4         644     165     153     8.6
Brandon Fahey          BAL        4          17       4       2     1.8
Chris Gomez            BAL        4          25       7       6     0.6
Melvin Mora            BAL        5         404      89      85     2.6
Chris Gomez            BAL        5          70      15      15    -0.1
Aubrey Huff            BAL        5          43       9      11    -1.5
Scott Moore            BAL        5          29       6      11    -3.6
Luis Hernandez         BAL        6          71      19      12     5.8
Miguel Tejada          BAL        6         507     146     142     4.3
Chris Gomez            BAL        6          42      12      11     0.9
Brandon Fahey          BAL        6          38      11       9     0.8
Freddie Bynum          BAL        6          30       7       7    -0.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Daisuke Matsuzaka      BOS        1          25       2       1     0.9
Tim Wakefield          BOS        1          26       2       2     0.3
Josh Beckett           BOS        1          15       1       3    -1.2
Jason Varitek          BOS        2          35       1       3    -1.2
Kevin Youkilis         BOS        3         286      42      33     6.6
Eric Hinske            BOS        3          71      11      10     0.3
Dustin Pedroia         BOS        4         537     127     118     6.8
Alex Cora              BOS        4         134      31      27     3.6
Mike Lowell            BOS        5         419      86      75     8.3
Kevin Youkilis         BOS        5          42      10       9     0.9
Alex Cora              BOS        6          89      25      23     2.5
Julio Lugo             BOS        6         582     156     151     0.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mike Mussina           NYA        1          29       3       2     0.9
Roger Clemens          NYA        1          16       2       1     0.5
Chien-Ming Wang        NYA        1          38       4       4    -0.3
Andy Pettitte          NYA        1          30       3       4    -0.8
Jorge Posada           NYA        2          55       5       5    -0.1
Andy Phillips          NYA        3         106      16      13     2.3
Doug Mientkiewicz      NYA        3         125      17      15     1.7
Jason Giambi           NYA        3          30       5       4     0.9
Wilson Betemit         NYA        3          17       3       3     0.1
Miguel Cairo           NYA        3          45       7       8    -0.3
Josh Phelps            NYA        3          37       5       8    -2.4
Robinson Cano          NYA        4         686     167     154     9.2
Wilson Betemit         NYA        5          19       5       4     0.2
Alex Rodriguez         NYA        5         433      90      89     0.1
Miguel Cairo           NYA        6          34      10       8     1.1
Alberto Gonzalez       NYA        6          23       5       5     0.0
Wilson Betemit         NYA        6          18       4       5    -0.7
Derek Jeter            NYA        6         618     172     197   -20.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Casey Fossum           TBA        1          17       2       1     0.9
James Shields          TBA        1          30       3       3    -0.1
Andrew Sonnanstine     TBA        1          17       2       3    -0.9
Scott Kazmir           TBA        1          22       3       6    -2.3
Dioner Navarro         TBA        2          29       2       3    -0.6
Carlos Pena            TBA        3         321      46      43     1.9
Ty Wigginton           TBA        3          32       5       8    -2.8
B.J. Upton             TBA        4         223      51      49     1.9
Jorge Velandia         TBA        4          43      11      10     0.5
Josh Wilson            TBA        4          90      23      22     0.2
Ty Wigginton           TBA        4         140      35      36    -0.7
Brendan Harris         TBA        4         154      37      43    -3.8
Akinori Iwamura        TBA        5         331      71      71     0.2
Josh Wilson            TBA        5          28       7       7    -0.1
Ty Wigginton           TBA        5          89      17      19    -1.6
Jorge Velandia         TBA        6          17       5       4     1.5
Ben Zobrist            TBA        6         112      31      41    -7.7
Josh Wilson            TBA        6         190      53      67   -10.6
Brendan Harris         TBA        6         356     101     121   -11.3
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Shaun Marcum           TOR        1          27       4       0     2.7
Jesse Litsch           TOR        1          24       3       1     1.3
Dustin McGowan         TOR        1          32       2       1     1.1
A.J. Burnett           TOR        1          16       2       1     0.4
Josh Towers            TOR        1          23       2       2    -0.1
Roy Halladay           TOR        1          42       5       6    -1.0
Scott Downs            TOR        1          17       2       4    -1.8
Gregg Zaun             TOR        2          36       3       3    -0.4
Lyle Overbay           TOR        3         253      39      31     6.4
Matt Stairs            TOR        3         103      15      16    -0.7
Curtis Thigpen         TOR        3          24       4       5    -0.8
Aaron Hill             TOR        4         735     190     158    23.5
John McDonald          TOR        5          42       9       5     3.2
Jason Smith            TOR        5          37       7       5     1.8
Howie Clark            TOR        5          25       6       5     0.1
Troy Glaus             TOR        5         305      66      66     0.0
Hector Luna            TOR        5          35       8       8    -0.1
Russ Adams             TOR        5          26       6      11    -3.9
John McDonald          TOR        6         406     111      94    11.3
Ray Olmedo             TOR        6          69      20      15     4.4
Royce Clayton          TOR        6         266      74      69     2.9

Team SFR Totals 2007

In the Schrodinger's Bat column titled "Defense and Alphabet Soup" I discussed how the SFR system was developed. Last night I plugged a couple of holes by including the context for batter handedness and taking into consideration the impact of bunts. In doing so I re-ran the numbers for 2007 and so I thought it would be interesting to look at the totals by team. Keep in mind this is for infielders only. In the table below Balls are the total number of balls assigned to all infielders for that team. There is overlap here since the virtual areas of responsibility for shortstop, say, and thirdbaseman both take into consideration ground balls that reach left field. ExRunners are the expected number of runners to reach base. Diff is the difference between the expected number and the actual number (so for Colorado 1988 runners were expected to reach based but only 1895 did). 2B are the number of two base hits the team either saved (a positive number) or gave up (a negative number) and 1B are the number of singles in a similar fashion.

Team              SFR      Balls  ExRunners  Diff      2B      1B
COL                72       4092     1988      93       9      84
SDN                72       3795     1798      91      10      80
TOR                65       3885     1845      84       8      76
SFN                54       3754     1797      69       9      60
BOS                54       3537     1678      69       9      60
OAK                44       3876     1880      57       5      52
SLN                37       4008     1946      47       6      41
MIN                34       3650     1733      43       8      35
CHN                28       3514     1659      35       5      30
ATL                24       3677     1709      32       4      28
NYN                21       3633     1728      27       2      25
PHI                20       3860     1855      25       3      23
ARI                16       3724     1817      20       3      18
NYA                15       3806     1861      19       5      14
ANA                5        3608     1770       7       0       7
BAL                4        3762     1822       6       0       6
KCA                -3       3823     1927      -3      -3      -1
TEX                -9       3979     1955      -9      -4      -5
WAS               -12       3850     1852     -15      -2     -14
PIT               -14       4004     1939     -19       0     -18
CLE               -17       3971     1895     -22      -2     -20
DET               -18       3848     1837     -23      -2     -21
LAN               -18       3807     1814     -23      -4     -18
CHA               -23       3951     1904     -30       0     -30
HOU               -24       3904     1844     -30      -5     -25
SEA               -38       3962     1901     -48      -6     -42
CIN               -56       3910     1918     -72      -7     -66
MIL               -63       3750     1819     -80     -10     -70
TBA               -72       3768     1867     -93     -10     -83
FLO               -109      3924     1914    -140     -17    -124

Florida winds up on the bottom by virtue of their primary defenders at all four primary doing extremely poorly.

Name              POS   Team        Balls     SFR
Aaron Boone        3    FLO           178      -6
Mike Jacobs        3    FLO           411     -14
Miguel Cabrera     5    FLO           735     -16
Hanley Ramirez     6    FLO          1046     -25
Dan Uggla          4    FLO           981     -37

It was a similar story for the Brewers...

Name              POS   Team        Balls     SFR
J.J. Hardy         6    MIL           973     -11
Prince Fielder     3    MIL           581     -13
Rickie Weeks       4    MIL           680     -24
Ryan Braun         5    MIL           520     -40

While Tampa Bay spread the love...

Name              POS   Team        Balls     SFR
Josh Wilson        4    TBA           157      -4
Akinori Iwamura    5    TBA           553      -4
Brendan Harris     4    TBA           257      -4
Ty Wigginton       3    TBA            61      -6
Ty Wigginton       4    TBA           235      -7
Ben Zobrist        6    TBA           175      -8
Josh Wilson        6    TBA           301     -13
Brendan Harris     6    TBA           580     -21

The Rockies did well in three of the four positions and claimed the top spot...

Name              POS   Team        Balls     SFR
Kazuo Matsui       4    COL           615      28
Troy Tulowitzki    6    COL          1180      25
Todd Helton        3    COL           609      13
Ian Stewart        5    COL            29       5
Jamey Carroll      4    COL           331       3
Garrett Atkins     5    COL           678     -12

Rays Win!

Last night I had my first opportunity to take in a game at Tropicana Field and so what follows are a few impressions.

The park is easily accessible from the I-275/175 split in St. Petersburg and despite a little traffic arrived at the park from near downtown Tampa is less than an hour.

More importantly, though, the parking was free to the first 7,000 cars. I think this was policy that started last season. Since the crowd was just over 20,000 last night I easily made it in and was able to park just a 100 yards or so from the entrance.

As you walk up to the facility you're greeted by Rays cheerleaders or whatever they're called and you begin to get the feeling that the experience will be more like a football game than a baseball game.

I understand there have been fairly significant changes to the facility in the last couple of years and where I entered behind right field you get the feel that they're working hard to make the park fan-friendly. Large murals on the history of baseball in the St. Petersburg area cover the walls and along with a wide variety of food you find booths for kids activities include a science and baseball activity and a number of video boards. Apparently the park also include a Ted Williams museum and a rays "touch tank" (I assume full of rays) neither of which I found on my brief foray in the 6th inning to survey other parts of the park. The new video board in right center and the strip along the upper deck in left center are both large and crystal clear. In fact, the one in right-center is so large and dominating that I scolded myself a couple times for failing to watch the field instead of the board.

On this night the staff were giving out cow bells to the Rays faithful and upon seeing my Colorado Rockies hat refused to give me a bell (for which I'm glad since my eight-year old would have had no end of fun clunking all throughout the house). But they also give out free programs that while smaller than an 8 1/2 by 11 style magazine that most teams have, is packed with information including a nice article on Rays prospects by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. And when I approached a vendor to ask about a scorecard it turns out they're small and free as well (the scorecard not the vendors). I found myself writing incredibly small and still not able to fit in the notations I usually use.

After I finally found my seat in the third deck behind home plate (passing a very nice mural of the back side of an old baseball grandstand visible as you ride the escalators) I was surprised at the number of pregame activities underway. Several giveaways, a pregame song or two from a couple of female singers I didn't recognize, and a bunch of announcements all emceed by a good looking youngish man with a big voice and an overabundance of energy. I've seen this sort of activity level at minor league games and the Colorado Springs Sky Sox do something very similar with a "host" of sorts who entertains before the game and between innings but never at the major league level. At each half-inning break the emcee would run some contest or game and all eyes were glued to the video board and accompanying some of the contests were musical selections with the "cheer squad" merrily dancing on top of the dugouts. And of course inside the dome all of it was pretty loud and I'll have to admit the purist in me was a bit taken aback although I did enjoy the Imperial March background music as the Yankees were being introduced. The introduction of the Rays starting lineup was akin to an NBA introduction with the announcer at the top of his voice and the video board doing its part. One wonders whether the perceived need to turn baseball games into spectacles like football games will ultimately be good for the sport. Be that as it may there is no denying that younger fans find the gaudiness of those sports attractive.

The game was of course interesting as well as the Devil Rays jumped all over Kei Igawa who simply didn't look sharp. His fastball topped out at 90mph and he was throwing his changeup alot which comes in around 80 as well as a slider in the low 80s. In any case his location wasn't good as he walked three and gave up eight hits and seven runs in four and third innings going 97 pitches. Roco Baldelli and B.J. Upton both homered off of Igawa. Baldelli's was a long blast to left center in the first and Upton was a line drive that actually hit the left field foul pole just a couple feet above the low fence line at the 315 foot mark. Since the ball ricocheted to the foul side it wasn't immediately obvious it was a homerun. Casey Fossum wasn't much better giving up 10 hits and six runs in five and two-thirds. He gave up the first of the two Alex Rodriguez homeruns although it was entertaining to watch him throw the "Fossum Flip" to several hitters getting Bobby Abreu in the third to fly out and Derek Jeter in the fifth to ground out. The pitch to Abreu was clocked at 52 mph.

Other than A-Rod I think I was most impressed with the throwing arm of Elijah Dukes. He made three throws on fly balls that were strong and accurate and although he didn't catch any of the three runners, it's clear that his three outfield assists thus far (to lead all rookies) is no fluke.

There's not much else to say about A-Rod. His two homeruns give him 14 for the month and so with six games left to play he should break the pre-May homerun and RBI records which stand at 14 and 36. He also made a sparkling defensive play in the first inning on a sharp grounder by Ty Wiggington.

In the end the Ray won the game 10-8 with A-Rod's second homerun plating the final two runs in the top of the ninth off of Rays closer Al Reyes. Each team used six pitchers and with names like Bean, Meyers, Bruney, Vizcaino, Glover, Camp, Salas, and Stokes all making appearances it's not surprising that there were 28 hits and 11 walks in the game. The fans used their cow bells effectively in the bottom of the ninth although there were plenty of Yankees fans and there was plenty of celebrating on the way to the parking lot.

All in all a nice evening.