More Fish/Eye

My column this week on Baseball Prospectus included a return of the Fish/Eye chart I built to illustrate the continuum of plate discipline. I've added a new metric this time called Square which tracks the percentage of pitches in the strike zone swung at and made contact with. A high value here (relative to the average of over 87 percent) indicates that when the batter offers at a strike he usually makes contact. On the contrary, a lower value indicates hitters who, for reasons such as a long swing, are more apt to swing through strikes. In any case, I also relate this metrics to Wily Mo Pena and my discussion from a previous column.

Several readers have alerted me to the fact that the group charts I showed cut a few players off at the edges. New charts coming soon...

Update: I posted new charts and some additional information about performance by quadrant on BP's Unfiltered blog.

Squaring It Up

In the comments on my post about plate discipline the question of "holes" was brought up. Specifically the idea is whether or not there are hitters who more consistently swing and miss on pitches that are in the strike zone. Well, with the data now becoming available we can add that to our list of things to look at.

The metric is called Square and is defined as the percentage of balls made contact with that were swung at in the strike zone. So if Brian Giles swung at 105 pitches in the strike zone and made contact with 101 of them his Square would be .962. Now perhaps "Square" isn't the best term since I've also included foul balls here but you get the idea. In any case here are here are the percentages for all hitters (and keep in mind we don't have all hitters but only those who've batted in the nine parks in which the PITCHf/x system is running).

Name                   Stand    Pitches    SinZ  Square
Derek Jeter            R            188      52   1.000
Chone Figgins          L            144      42   1.000
Placido Polanco        R            117      31   1.000
Esteban German         R            126      27   1.000
David Dejesus          L            209      55   0.982
David Ortiz            L            224      50   0.980
Dan Johnson            L            411      75   0.973
Jay Payton             R            105      37   0.973
Maicer Izturis         L            179      32   0.969
Coco Crisp             L            168      31   0.968
Rafael Furcal          L            406      90   0.967
Juan Pierre            L            462     118   0.966
Reggie Willits         R            135      28   0.964
Ichiro Suzuki          L            552     109   0.963
Trot Nixon             L            111      27   0.963
Brian Giles            L            381     105   0.962
Kevin Millar           R            108      25   0.960
Mark Grudzielanek      R            186      48   0.958
Barry Bonds            L            122      24   0.958
Ryan Sweeney           L            126      22   0.955
Casey Kotchman         L            466     106   0.953
Matt Murton            R            101      21   0.952
Kenny Lofton           L            569     144   0.951
Mike Lowell            R            200      60   0.950
Albert Pujols          R            108      20   0.950
John McDonald          R            170      39   0.949
Mark Ellis             R            472     114   0.947
Darin Erstad           L            372      74   0.946
Frank Thomas           R            517     108   0.944
Pablo Ozuna            R            129      36   0.944
Miguel Tejada          R            148      36   0.944
Ben Broussard          L            126      36   0.944
Ramon Martinez         R            124      35   0.943
David Dellucci         L            111      34   0.941
Johnny Damon           L            190      49   0.939
Lyle Overbay           L            381      96   0.938
Frank Catalanotto      L            330      78   0.936
Ramon Hernandez        R            115      31   0.935
Yuniesky Betancourt    R            376     106   0.934
Geoff Blum             L            148      29   0.931
Andre Ethier           L            413     128   0.930
Shannon Stewart        R            464     126   0.929
Jason Kendall          R            423     112   0.929
Ryan Zimmerman         R            114      28   0.929
Mike Sweeney           R            131      41   0.927
Alexis Rios            R            467     108   0.926
Brian Mccann           L            280      53   0.925
Hideki Matsui          L            186      53   0.925
Nick Markakis          L            168      52   0.923
Luis Gonzalez          L            462     116   0.922
Erick Aybar            L            235      64   0.922
Kevin Youkilis         R            219      51   0.922
Raul Ibanez            L            514     126   0.921
Melvin Mora            R            189      50   0.920
Orlando Cabrera        R            518     137   0.920
Mike Cuddyer           R            155      37   0.919
Brian Roberts          L            134      37   0.919
Jerry Hairston         R            124      37   0.919
Robinson Cano          L            171      36   0.917
Brendan Harris         R            165      48   0.917
Nick Swisher           R            149      24   0.917
Reggie Willits         L            280      59   0.915
Ramon Vazquez          L            184      47   0.915
Mark Derosa            R            113      35   0.914
Ian Kinsler            R            630     163   0.914
J.D. Drew              L            184      46   0.913
Jamie Burke            R            107      23   0.913
Jose Lopez             R            382     102   0.912
Dustin Pedroia         R            158      45   0.911
Ken Griffey Jr.        L            109      22   0.909
Jose Vidro             L            349      87   0.908
Julio Lugo             R            226      65   0.908
Gary Sheffield         R            168      32   0.906
Kenji Jojima           R            284      95   0.905
Sean Casey             L            101      21   0.905
Victor Martinez        L            100      21   0.905
A.J. Pierzynski        L            376     115   0.904
Marco Scutaro          R            192      52   0.904
Grady Sizemore         L            143      31   0.903
Bengie Molina          R            106      31   0.903
Jorge Posada           L            136      41   0.902
Gary Matthews Jr.      L            449     102   0.902
Jeff Kent              R            453     142   0.901
Garret Anderson        L            262      50   0.900
Luis Castillo          L            121      30   0.900
Tadahito Iguchi        R            490     146   0.897
Michael Young          R            628     193   0.896
Kelly Johnson          L            427      85   0.894
Jermaine Dye           R            467     119   0.891
Josh Bard              L            308      91   0.890
Adrian Beltre          R            441     126   0.889
Howie Kendrick         R            165      45   0.889
Curtis Granderson      L            147      35   0.886
Aaron Hill             R            461     129   0.884
Magglio Ordonez        R            150      43   0.884
Doug Mientkiewicz      L            113      17   0.882
Paul Konerko           R            489     116   0.879
Shea Hillenbrand       R            330      91   0.879
Justin Morneau         L            137      33   0.879
Edgar Renteria         R            379      82   0.878
Willie Harris          L            208      49   0.878
Nomar Garciaparra      R            470     152   0.875
Carlos Guillen         L            112      24   0.875
Scott Thorman          L            230      47   0.872
Hank Blalock           L            332      78   0.872
Brady Clark            R            160      39   0.872
Ivan Rodriguez         R            118      31   0.871
Matt Diaz              R            191      53   0.868
Alfonso Soriano        R            127      30   0.867
Jason Giambi           L            130      30   0.867
Marlon Byrd            R            174      44   0.864
Gerald Laird           R            504     138   0.862
Andy Laroche           R            127      29   0.862
Mark Teixeira          R            169      43   0.860
Derrek Lee             R            146      43   0.860
Chris Woodward         R            154      49   0.857
Joe Crede              R            376     104   0.856
Vladimir Guerrero      R            408      97   0.856
Adam Lind              L            374     110   0.855
Khalil Greene          R            419     136   0.853
Alex Cintron           L            119      34   0.853
Adrian Gonzalez        L            641     163   0.853
Juan Uribe             R            353     101   0.851
Jose Guillen           R            423     121   0.851
Joshua Barfield        R            115      40   0.850
Willie Bloomquist      R            156      46   0.848
Royce Clayton          R            264      78   0.846
Alex Gordon            L            163      39   0.846
Aubrey Huff            L            123      39   0.846
Robb Quinlan           R            135      45   0.844
Bobby Crosby           R            489     127   0.843
Chris Stewart          R            103      38   0.842
Jose Cruz Jr.          L            303      82   0.841
Russell Martin         R            543     145   0.841
Travis Buck            L            393      88   0.841
Marcus Giles           R            504     156   0.840
Vernon Wells           R            461     124   0.839
Wilson Betemit         L            224      49   0.837
Manny Ramirez          R            227      61   0.836
Brad Wilkerson         L            263      60   0.833
Bobby Abreu            L            225      60   0.833
Emil Brown             R            153      36   0.833
Elijah Dukes           R            208      47   0.830
Richie Sexson          R            485     123   0.829
Kevin Kouzmanoff       R            393     117   0.829
Ty Wigginton           R            221      64   0.828
Mike Cameron           R            589     157   0.828
Eric Chavez            L            542     136   0.824
Tony Pena              R            130      34   0.824
Jose Molina            R            157      45   0.822
Casey Blake            R            167      42   0.810
Delmon Young           R            232      68   0.809
Jason Phillips         R            236      67   0.806
Mark Teixeira          L            517     102   0.804
Jeffrey Francoeur      R            381      98   0.796
Jim Thome              L            359      78   0.795
Gary Matthews Jr.      R            118      24   0.792
Jose Cruz Jr.          R            108      28   0.786
Milton Bradley         L            135      46   0.783
Nick Swisher           L            410      86   0.779
Michael Napoli         R            349      85   0.776
Rob Mackowiak          L            313      76   0.776
Troy Glaus             R            353      76   0.776
Mark Teahen            L            213      49   0.776
Victor Diaz            R            159      49   0.776
Mike Piazza            R            186      40   0.775
Carl Crawford          L            242      62   0.774
Brandon Inge           R            143      35   0.771
Matt Stairs            L            202      51   0.765
Alex Rodriguez         R            205      55   0.764
Hiram Bocachica        R            118      25   0.760
Terrmel Sledge         L            301      88   0.750
Rocco Baldelli         R            135      32   0.750
Craig Monroe           R            139      30   0.733
Craig Wilson           R            105      26   0.731
Travis Hafner          L            138      22   0.727
Sammy Sosa             R            588     164   0.726
Andruw Jones           R            433     112   0.723
B.J. Upton             R            263      75   0.720
Chipper Jones          L            194      39   0.718
Olmedo Saenz           R            149      39   0.718
Carlos Pena            L            184      46   0.717
Nelson Cruz            R            374     100   0.700
Jack Cust              L            318      66   0.697
Jason Smith            L            103      28   0.679
Rob Bowen              L            114      26   0.654
Russ Branyan           L            164      49   0.612

Generally speaking the top of the list is populated with contact hitters while the bottom has more power hitters and free swingers as you might expect. A couple surprises to me anyway are David Ortiz and Dan Johnson so high in the list and Chipper Jones (batting left-handed) so low. The average is 87.2% which validates the feeling I always get, especially when attending a game in person, that when a pitch is in the strike zone a major league hitter usually takes advantage.

Quantifying Plate Discipline

In my column this morning on Baseball Prospectus (subscription required but well worth it) among other things I take another crack at the PITCHf/x Gameday data. In part, inspired by this fascinating article, I created a couple of metrics to quantify plate discipline. They are:

Swing (S) defined as the percentage of pitches the batter swung at and also available in many other places. Obviously high values here are indicative of aggressive hitters or hitters who see a greater percentage of pitches out of the strike zone.

Fish (F) defined as the percentage of pitches out of the strike zone that the hitter swung at. A higher percentage here indicates that the hitter may have trouble recognizing pitches since he is offering at pitches that would likely otherwise be called balls. It should be noted that the strike zone as defined for this analysis is 17 inches wide (the standard) and uses the actual height customized for the player. No buffer room was added as was done in the previous articles since here we're not concerned with giving the umpire the benefit of the doubt.

Bad Ball (BB) defined as the percentage of pitches out of the strike zone that were swung at and made contact with (including foul balls although there is an argument to be made that a foul ball is not the intended outcome and so should be discounted in some way). A higher value in this category indicates that the hitter, when swinging at bad pitches, is at least able to get the bat on the ball.

Eye (E) defined as the percentage of pitches in the strike zone on non-three and zero counts that were taken for strikes. A smaller value in this metric indicates a player who recognizes strikes and aggressively offers at them. Non three and zero counts were excluded since obviously a hitter is much more likely to let a strike go by in this situation and so we don’t want to penalize them for that behavior. Some readers will see, however, where this idea could be extended to each of the eight possible counts and a system devised where less penalty is credited to hitters who take at 3-1 than those that do so at 0-2.

Without further ado here's the list (with the big caveat that only 24% of all pitches in 2007 have been tracked in the system and there is a heavy bias to the AL West because of the parks that the system is installed in) of all players who have 200 or more pitches tracked this season sorted by "Fish".

Name              Stand    Pitches   Swing    Fish BadBall     Eye
A.J. Pierzynski   L            357   0.602   0.469   0.813   0.117
Garret Anderson   L            260   0.515   0.467   0.750   0.350
Delmon Young      R            200   0.550   0.454   0.630   0.228
Rob Mackowiak     L            297   0.525   0.438   0.738   0.240
Hank Blalock      L            332   0.521   0.430   0.632   0.183
Erick Aybar       L            235   0.532   0.430   0.869   0.217
Carl Crawford     L            216   0.519   0.427   0.738   0.171
Jeffrey Francoeur R            337   0.546   0.425   0.775   0.094
Vladimir Guerrero R            403   0.524   0.421   0.771   0.142
Adrian Beltre     R            430   0.512   0.403   0.694   0.234
Michael Young     R            585   0.523   0.403   0.766   0.284
Eric Chavez       L            519   0.503   0.394   0.736   0.225
Kenji Jojima      R            270   0.522   0.389   0.878   0.217
Nomar Garciaparra R            436   0.557   0.388   0.800   0.132
Juan Pierre       L            431   0.480   0.385   0.916   0.302
Yuniesky BetancourR            345   0.496   0.383   0.806   0.279
Joe Crede         R            376   0.503   0.381   0.729   0.238
Jason Phillips    R            203   0.493   0.381   0.721   0.303
Vernon Wells      R            417   0.501   0.380   0.713   0.216
Jose Lopez        R            347   0.478   0.375   0.853   0.288
Ichiro Suzuki     L            515   0.435   0.369   0.862   0.326
Khalil Greene     R            407   0.514   0.367   0.595   0.247
Orlando Cabrera   R            517   0.468   0.362   0.838   0.279
Brian Mccann      L            267   0.434   0.358   0.783   0.282
Kevin Kouzmanoff  R            363   0.499   0.350   0.724   0.167
Lyle Overbay      L            381   0.465   0.349   0.704   0.230
Sammy Sosa        R            532   0.492   0.349   0.625   0.205
Royce Clayton     R            227   0.515   0.348   0.457   0.194
Adam Lind         L            336   0.482   0.348   0.719   0.253
Andruw Jones      R            389   0.478   0.344   0.686   0.232
Jose Guillen      R            394   0.475   0.344   0.636   0.232
Alexis Rios       R            413   0.426   0.343   0.735   0.351
Marcus Giles      R            452   0.511   0.341   0.674   0.211
Bobby Crosby      R            474   0.451   0.338   0.652   0.327
Casey Kotchman    L            463   0.434   0.338   0.814   0.285
Gary Matthews Jr. L            449   0.441   0.334   0.781   0.223
David Dejesus     L            209   0.445   0.333   0.816   0.340
Nelson Cruz       R            374   0.457   0.330   0.690   0.268
Andre Ethier      L            376   0.500   0.329   0.803   0.200
Jose Vidro        L            336   0.461   0.329   0.870   0.200
Juan Uribe        R            334   0.476   0.328   0.651   0.232
Raul Ibanez       L            474   0.456   0.328   0.760   0.229
Gerald Laird      R            484   0.459   0.326   0.698   0.290
Jason Kendall     R            405   0.432   0.325   0.870   0.373
Jermaine Dye      R            452   0.442   0.324   0.753   0.267
Mark Teahen       L            213   0.437   0.324   0.636   0.307
Adrian Gonzalez   L            590   0.453   0.322   0.767   0.225
Darin Erstad      L            372   0.398   0.318   0.797   0.413
Shea Hillenbrand  R            330   0.445   0.308   0.821   0.297
Brad Wilkerson    L            263   0.414   0.306   0.755   0.303
Paul Konerko      R            457   0.420   0.303   0.765   0.290
Richie Sexson     R            448   0.446   0.303   0.732   0.211
Mark Ellis        R            440   0.409   0.302   0.851   0.380
Mark Teixeira     L            501   0.399   0.302   0.657   0.276
Kenny Lofton      L            514   0.434   0.300   0.818   0.239
Travis Buck       L            377   0.416   0.300   0.662   0.255
Michael Napoli    R            346   0.419   0.299   0.683   0.322
Kelly Johnson     L            384   0.393   0.292   0.787   0.315
Josh Bard         L            283   0.470   0.292   0.878   0.177
Edgar Renteria    R            346   0.405   0.290   0.688   0.275
Jeff Kent         R            420   0.476   0.285   0.611   0.176
Ian Kinsler       R            591   0.423   0.280   0.784   0.268
Terrmel Sledge    L            285   0.446   0.272   0.609   0.217
Rafael Furcal     L            371   0.391   0.270   0.857   0.353
Shannon Stewart   R            437   0.410   0.269   0.810   0.327
B.J. Upton        R            225   0.431   0.269   0.528   0.227
Frank Thomas      R            478   0.377   0.267   0.838   0.335
Troy Glaus        R            306   0.376   0.264   0.706   0.330
Jose Cruz Jr.     L            285   0.428   0.262   0.591   0.216
Aaron Hill        R            417   0.415   0.253   0.729   0.302
Willie Harris     L            205   0.400   0.248   0.765   0.239
Russell Martin    R            506   0.401   0.241   0.757   0.290
Luis Gonzalez     L            428   0.395   0.236   0.889   0.256
Nick Swisher      L            384   0.365   0.232   0.559   0.307
Tadahito Iguchi   R            462   0.422   0.230   0.678   0.243
Frank Catalanotto L            309   0.372   0.228   0.821   0.319
Mike Cameron      R            539   0.399   0.224   0.569   0.237
Reggie Willits    L            274   0.328   0.219   0.818   0.455
Brian Giles       L            381   0.396   0.218   0.804   0.269
Jim Thome         L            330   0.358   0.203   0.545   0.239
Bobby Abreu       L            203   0.374   0.185   0.545   0.274
Jack Cust         L            294   0.310   0.175   0.563   0.342
Wilson Betemit    L            208   0.327   0.155   0.700   0.282
Dan Johnson       L            387   0.282   0.148   0.737   0.346

Of course the interesting thing is that you can then plot the Fish and Eye metrics on a graph and then split the graph into four quadrants. Each quadrant creates a little profile that can be used to characterize a hitter's plate discipline. Note that the bottom left is the sweet spot.