Wednesday Links

Just a couple of notes for a Wednesday...

Jayson Stark had a nice live blog post on the hearings yesterday for those of use who had to work. Some pretty good perspective I think and in answering questions he brings up a few other issues worth thinking about.

Former BP'er Keith Woolner has a nice bio on the Science Magazine site that goes through his background leading up to his current position as Manager of Baseball Research and Analysis for the Indians. Very cool.

Mike Fast writes a wonderful PITCHf/x primer on MVN that explains what you need to know about f/x in seven easy steps.

SFR in the Infield - AL Central

Today we'll stroll through the AL Centeral and look at their infielders in terms of Simple Fielding Runs (SFR). Keep in mind that this list only includes players who were assigned 15 or more balls in their virtual area of responsibility.

                                                    Ex
Name                   Team      POS      Balls Runners Runners     SFR
Jon Garland            CHA        1          37       4       2     1.3
Javier Vazquez         CHA        1          30       3       2     0.7
John Danks             CHA        1          16       2       1     0.6
Mark Buehrle           CHA        1          37       4       4    -0.2
Jose Contreras         CHA        1          30       3       8    -3.5
A.J. Pierzynski        CHA        2          38       2       1     0.4
Paul Konerko           CHA        3         295      42      40     1.6
Darin Erstad           CHA        3          55       7       6     1.2
Pablo Ozuna            CHA        4          17       4       5    -0.8
Alex Cintron           CHA        4          41      10      14    -2.9
Tadahito Iguchi        CHA        4         369      89      97    -5.9
Danny Richar           CHA        4         218      57      66    -6.9
Joe Crede              CHA        5         149      31      24     5.1
Pablo Ozuna            CHA        5          21       4       7    -2.1
Angel Gonzalez         CHA        5          74      16      20    -3.0
Alex Cintron           CHA        5          48      11      15    -3.3
Josh Fields            CHA        5         266      58      66    -5.8
Alex Cintron           CHA        6          68      17      18    -0.9
Juan Uribe             CHA        6         703     186     187    -4.3
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fausto Carmona         CLE        1          38       3       1     1.5
Jake Westbrook         CLE        1          28       3       1     1.5
C.C. Sabathia          CLE        1          27       2       3    -0.6
Paul Byrd              CLE        1          25       3       4    -1.0
Victor Martinez        CLE        2          25       1       3    -1.3
Travis Hafner          CLE        3          22       4       2     1.3
Victor Martinez        CLE        3          58       9       8     0.5
Ryan Garko             CLE        3         253      38      44    -4.8
Asdrubal Cabrera       CLE        4         160      41      38     2.1
Mike Rouse             CLE        4          37       9       7     1.4
Josh Barfield          CLE        4         533     135     137    -1.2
Chris Gomez            CLE        5          24       5       4     0.8
Casey Blake            CLE        5         417      90      89     0.7
Andy Marte             CLE        5          51      10      12    -2.0
Mike Rouse             CLE        5          23       5       8    -2.0
Mike Rouse             CLE        6          40      11       8     1.7
Asdrubal Cabrera       CLE        6          31       9       8     1.5
Jhonny Peralta         CLE        6         725     197     212   -10.7
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Nate Robertson         DET        1          27       3       0     2.1
Justin Verlander       DET        1          17       2       0     1.1
Chad Durbin            DET        1          17       2       2    -0.2
Jeremy Bonderman       DET        1          19       2       4    -1.7
Fernando Rodney        DET        1          16       2       4    -1.8
Ivan Rodriguez         DET        2          43       2       0     1.2
Carlos Guillen         DET        3          52       8       4     2.4
Marcus Thames          DET        3          45       7       6     0.6
Sean Casey             DET        3         232      34      34     0.0
Omar Infante           DET        4          57      14      13     0.4
Neifi Perez            DET        4          21       5       5     0.4
Placido Polanco        DET        4         564     140     142    -1.9
Ryan Raburn            DET        4          42      11      17    -4.2
Brandon Inge           DET        5         496     107      95     9.3
Omar Infante           DET        5          33       7       6     0.6
Ramon Santiago         DET        6          94      25      22     2.5
Omar Infante           DET        6          34       8      10    -1.4
Neifi Perez            DET        6          52      15      20    -4.3
Carlos Guillen         DET        6         565     157     176   -16.9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Brian Bannister        KCA        1          20       2       0     1.3
Odalis Perez           KCA        1          19       2       1     0.6
Gil Meche              KCA        1          24       2       4    -1.1
Jason LaRue            KCA        2          16       0       0     0.3
John Buck              KCA        2          34       2       4    -1.3
Ross Gload             KCA        3         174      26      21     3.5
Ryan Shealy            KCA        3          99      15      11     2.8
Alex Gordon            KCA        3          39       6       3     2.2
Billy Butler           KCA        3          24       4       4     0.3
Mark Grudzielanek      KCA        4         410     103      97     4.9
Esteban German         KCA        4         154      37      37    -0.1
Fernando Cortez        KCA        4          16       4       5    -0.6
Alex Gordon            KCA        5         403      84      85    -0.9
Esteban German         KCA        5          79      18      22    -2.8
Tony Pena              KCA        6         658     178     175    15.0
Jason Smith            KCA        6          66      17      16    -0.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Johan Santana          MIN        1          27       3       1     1.4
Carlos Silva           MIN        1          29       3       2     0.7
Scott Baker            MIN        1          16       2       3    -0.7
Boof Bonser            MIN        1          18       2       3    -0.9
Joe Mauer              MIN        2          16       0       0     0.1
Justin Morneau         MIN        3         325      46      43     2.3
Luis Castillo          MIN        4         338      82      82     0.1
Luis Rodriguez         MIN        4          47      11      12    -0.4
Nick Punto             MIN        4         101      25      27    -1.0
Alexi Casilla          MIN        4         208      55      62    -5.4
Nick Punto             MIN        5         282      53      43     7.9
Jeff Cirillo           MIN        5          37       8       3     3.7
Luis Rodriguez         MIN        5          72      14      10     3.0
Tommy Watkins          MIN        5          21       4       3     1.1
Brian Buscher          MIN        5          60      13      19    -4.5
Jason Bartlett         MIN        6         634     174     166     4.0
Nick Punto             MIN        6         118      32      38    -5.4

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 6

Starting in the top of the eighth...

Final. Indians 4, Yankees 8.

Unimpressive. I haven't seen Robinson Cano play much this year but he's now looked poor on two plays. Such are the risks of small sample sizes since Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average have him at +23 in 2007 and Ultimate Zone Rating has him at +15, second in the American League behind Mark Ellis at +25. Derek Jeter, on the other hand, was last in the AL at -27 in UZR and at -6 at BP.

Tomorrow, Tomorrow. The Yankees don't replace Joba Chamberlain and he has a 21 pitch inning and gives up a run. For the two innings he throws 38 pitches. Wonder how that will impact tomorrow's game assuming this one ends with a Yankee victory especially not knowing what you're going to get with Mike Mussina as the probable starter tomorrow.

Guts. Chip Carey notes that Joe Borowski does it with location and "guts". I'm not sure but I think that means he doesn't have very good stuff. The graphic they showed of his ERA in save and non-save situations was interesting with his save era at around 3.70 and his non-save at over 9.00. The implication of course is that he's better under pressure but I do see from looking at his game logs that he took four losses in 15 non-save situation appearances. In only two other games did he come in with a big lead, pitch poorly and have his team still win.

Mariano Rivera finishes it off and we'll have baseball tomorrow night.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 5

Starting in the top of the sixth...

End of the seventh inning, Indians 3, Yankees 8.

Hard Stuff. Uneventful top of the sixth with Phil Hughes now mixing his pitches nicely. He threw all fastballs to Kenny Lofton in striking him out and 13 of his 18 pitches were fastballs.

Done. Like Bob Brenly, also surprised that Jake Westbrook is back out for the bottom of the sixth but that doesn't last long with A-Rod's second single of the night on a changeup. It was clear that Westbrook had lost the confidence in his sinker as he threw just two in five pitches to Rodriguez.

Strategic. I really liked the bunt by Doug Mientkiewicz in that situation with nobody out and runners on first and second. That's the situation where, if the idea is to score a single run, the break even value is the lowest it ever is for laying down a sacrifice bunt at under 80% for the general case. In this situation already up by two runs, a third run means raising the win expectancy by over 8%.

Busted It Open. The move pays off with the single from Robinson Cano and subsequent error by Trot Nixon in right field that plates three runs and lets Yankee fans breathe a little easier.

Joba Rules. Joba Chamberlain hits greater than 98 mph on three pitches to the first two batters and 99.2 on the first pitch to the third, but strikes out the first couple on sliders in the dirt. He tries the same thing to Travis Hafner but he gets it up and Hafner flies out to right field. After the fourth pitch to Hafner Chip Carey says that "last pitch broke a foot and a half". PITCHf/x had it's movement at 9.4 inches horizontally and 7.4 inches horizontally and thrown at 77 mph. Not a foot and a half but a huge break none the less. That said, I hope Brenly is wrong and they don't elect to use him for another inning. With a five-run lead it would seem to be prudent to save him for tomorrow.

Wow. Jensen Lewis looks impressive and had an excellent September in 10 games.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 4

Starting in the top of the fourth...

End of five innings, Indians 3, Yankees 5.

Tailing. Tony Gwynn mentioned that the fastball Phil Hughes threw to strike out Trot Nixon in the fourth was a good running fastball. Generally speaking Hughes' fastball rides more than it tails (I presume the definition of "running" likely includes both). On the season his fastball will typically record a vertical movement value of 12 or more inches, meaning that it comes in about two to three inches higher than a typical fastball thrown at that velocity. The tailing action on his fastball, however, is only in the range of one to three inches. In fact, that pitch referenced by Gwynn had a value of 1.3 inches according to PITCHf/x.

Consistency? Robinson Cano doesn't move his body and get in front of the ball and after scoring it a hit initially the call is changed to an error. The right call I think but terribly inconsistent given Jeter's gift in the first.

Curve. As noted by Bob Brenly Phil Hughes has established his curveball and threw it four of the first eight pitches in the fifth inning and then used it setup the fastball on the outside corner to Ryan Garko to end the top of the fifth. Nice.

Shift. Before Jason Giambi struck out in the bottom of the fifth I think Tony Gwynn was going to take Giambi to task for not attempting to beat the shift with his team desparately needing base runners. BIPChart says Giambi hits 75% of his grounders from the middle to the right side of the infield and the shift worked perfectly in his first at bat.

Getting the Ball Up. The three straight singles in the bottom of the fifth off of Jake Westbrook were all elevated sinkers at 2.2, 2.4, and 3.3 feet above the ground. Not mentioned but two very nice plays by Kenny Lofton to hold Hideki Matsui at third and to charge the single by Melky Cabrera and hit the cutoff man.

See Above. As was the homerun Johnny Damon hit to give the Yankees at 5-3 lead. That pitch was thrown at 91.7 mph and came in at 3.4 feet above the ground and was also about 2 inches towards the left-handed batter's box. Can the relievers get ready any faster? As a result, Derek Jeter sees only one sinker out of five pitches and now Westbrook is trying to adjust by working his curveball and slider. Maybe a little too late.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 3

Continuing in the top of the third as Phil Hughes enters the game...

End of the third inning. Indians 3, Yankees 1.

Wild Pitch. Jorge Posada has no chance on that pitch from Hughes and it hit so far in the front of the plate that moving over into a blocking position likely wouldn't have helped. Of course as has been their luck it immediately costs them on Jhonny Peralta's double to right.

Sweeps. This is looking like the first time all four division series will end in sweeps. In fact this is the first time there have been as many as three sweeps. The two game sweeps

In 2006 Oakland swept Minnesota and the Mets swept the Dodgers.
In 2005 the White Sox swept the Red Sox and the Cardinals swept the Padres (despite my prediction to the contrary).
In 2000 the Mariners swept the White Sox and St. Louis swept Atlanta.
In 1998 the Yankees swept the Rangers and Cubs were swept by the Braves.
In 1997 Florida swept San Francisco and Atlanta swept Houston.
And finally, in 1995 the Indians swept Boston and the Reds swept the Dodgers.

DPs. As with Livan Hernandez last night, Jake Westbrook has been able to get out of trouble courtesy of the double play via his sinker. At one point, as reported by Nate Silver, 12 of 24 Cubs hitters had reached base and yet they were unable to break it open. And so with their defeat, 2008 will be the 100th year of the rebuilding effort.

Mistake. Terrible play by Victor Martinez in throwing to third with a three-run lead. Nice slide by Hideki Matsui to get his hand in there. And another good sinker from Westbrook to get the ground ball. He's throwing his sinker consistently between 91.5 and 92.5 mph. However, the one he threw to Johnny Damon stays up and he scoots it through the right side.

And another DP on another sinker, this one at 1.99 feet from the ground.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 2

Starting at the top of the second...

Top of the third. Indians 2 Yankees 0 - pitching change.

Oops. Did I say Clemens' location was good? Trot Nixon hits an 86 mph splitter that doesn't sink or a slider that just spins and ends up thigh high on the inner half (PITCHf/x had it an inch and half towads the left-handed box). Grady Sizemore hits almost the identical pitch albeit a few inches lower for a single to right. The splitter is looking better in the at bat to Asdrubal Cabrera even though he was able to lay off the two best pitches.

A-Rod. 0 for his last 18 in the postseason and Alex Rodriguez just misses a 3-1 fastball in the zone before hitting a solid single to left on a 92.5 mph fastball. Maybe the buzzards will move off for a few innings at least.

Turbo sinker! The first "turbo sinker" reference belongs to Bob Brenly in reference to Fausto Carmona in the bottom of the second.

Laying off. Chip Carey and Tony Gwynn agree that Indians hitters are laying off the split fingered fastball and he's taking longer between pitches now and doesn't look good. This won't last long.

Done. Clemens is done after throwing fewer than 60 pitches. Is this the last time we see him on the mound? Lord I hope so. I'd hate to see another round of "where will Roger go" this offseason. Enough is enough and maybe this will convince him to hang it up content with the fact that he was arguably the greatest pitcher of all time.

Indians at Yankees, Game 3 Part 1

Hoping that this game is more interesting than the Red Sox/Angels, I thought I'd blog a little during the game. I'll try to do an inning or two at a time for as long as I can.

Indians 1, Yankees 0 end of one inning.

Derek Jeter throws wild in the top of the first. A hit? Are you kidding? Yet another example of how scoring has been construed to the advantage of the fielder to a ridiculous degree in recent years. In a recent column noting the Rockies breaking of the all-time fielding percentage record, I talked about the increase in fielding percentage and how that records an increasing level of excellence in play. While I think the general trend still holds there is no doubt that fielders have a larger margin for error today than they did say 20 years ago.

Clemens. 27 pitches in the top of the first. He topped out at 93.2 mph in his first pitch to Asdrubal Cabrera. His location hasn't been bad other than the single hit by Ryan Garko on a 91.4 mph fastball that was right down the middle.

Jake Westbrook struggled a bit in September (60 baserunners in 37 innings) but in the first inning all three balls that were hit were down in the strike zone (2.2, 1.9, and 1.8 feet off the ground. Good news for a guy that relies on his sinker and as Bob Brenly said, throws his fastball 80% of the time on first pitches.

Torre's Job. So the boss says Joe Torre needs to win to keep his job. It seems like we've heard this before although it seems this is a little more serious.

Keith Woolner Gets the Call

Congratulations are in order to Keith Woolner, a BP colleague and the inventor of VORP, who has taken the position of Manager of Baseball Research and Analysis with the Cleveland Indians. The quote by Indians GM Mark Shapiro that I used in my Hope and Faith piece on the Indians in March is clearly borne out by this move and I'm sure that Keith will be a key contributor to their future success. Congrats!

Team Running - Cleveland Indians

Today we'll continue our series on team baserunning by looking at the Cleveland Indians. I've had occasion to get pretty familiar with the Indians over the last week or two in researching my piece Hope and Faith: How the Cleveland Indians Can Win the World Series which is up on Baseball Prospectus today.

In short, the Indians have really increased the depth of their lineup with the additions of David Delluci and Trot Nixon in outfield platoon situations to go along with Sin-Soo Choo, Jason Michaels, and Casey Blake. They'll also likely get a little more offense and alot better defense out of the combination of Andy Marte at third base and Josh Barfield at second. The starting rotation remains strong as well although there are questions related to Jeremy Sowers, who PECOTA is not hopeful about. That leaves the bullpen which was, to put it as kindly as possible, historically bad in 2006. GM Mark Shapiro is betting on a trio of ancient relievers in Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez, and Aaron Fultz (not to mention Cliff Politte) to at least be league average and perhaps the development of Fernando Cabrera. In the end this team seems to be poised to be right back where they were in 2005 in contending for a division title.


Overall, the Indians ranked 14th in total baserunning at -6.81 and were most hurt by a -3.49 in EqGAR. When taking out EqSBR they ranked 22nd by racking up -3.77 EqSBR despite having just 82 EqSBR opportunities. As expected Grady Sizemore (pictured left) was the team's top baserunner picking up 5.16 run overall and ranking 11th in baseball. On the flip side Victor Martinez ranked dead last (666th) at -5.73 and as mentioned in a previous post despite starting in 2002 has the 8th lowest total since 2000 at -13.6.

The Indians are also a good illustration of the variability inherent in these metrics. By all accounts Sizemore is an excellent baserunner which is reflected in his advancement on hits and ground balls. He scores poorly in advancement on fly balls and in part that is the case since EqAAR is the most variable by virtue of the greater cost associated with getting thrown out (usually at home). Jhonny Peralta is on the other side of this as he scores poorly in EqHAR and EqGAR (which is very likely more reflective of his true baserunning ability since he scored -0.87, -0.08, and -1.26 from 2003 through 2005) but does well in EqAAR.

For 2007 one would think that jettisoning Aaron Boone (-2.14), Ben Broussard (-0.63), and Ronnie Belliard (-1.04) as well as picking up Josh Barfield (+3.64 and ranking 20th in 2006) will only help matters.

Equivalent Stolen Base Runs
Name               Team     SB    PO     CS  EqSBR
Grady Sizemore     CLE      22     1      6   0.93
Joe Inglett        CLE       5     0      1   0.70
Casey Blake        CLE       6     1      0   0.40
Ronnie Belliard    CLE       2     0      0   0.39
Lou Merloni        CLE       1     0      0   0.10
Ryan Garko         CLE       0     1      0  -0.24
Todd Hollandsworth CLE       0     0      1  -0.24
Jhonny Peralta     CLE       0     0      1  -0.44
Hector Luna        CLE       0     0      1  -0.63
Shin-Soo Choo      CLE       5     0      3  -0.78
Ben Broussard      CLE       0     1      1  -1.24
Jason Michaels     CLE       9     0      5  -1.33
Aaron Boone        CLE       5     0      4  -1.39

Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs
Name              Team     Opp    OA  ExHAR  EqHAR  HARate
Grady Sizemore     CLE      67     0   8.31   3.46     142
Jason Michaels     CLE      42     0   8.38   3.24     139
Shin-Soo Choo      CLE      10     0   1.29   0.81     163
Casey Blake        CLE      42     1   7.06   0.44     106
Ramon Vazquez      CLE       9     0   0.47   0.42     189
Franklin Gutierrez CLE      15     0   2.47   0.42     117
Ronnie Belliard    CLE      27     0   3.73   0.42     111
Hector Luna        CLE       6     0   1.92   0.38     120
Todd Hollandsworth CLE       5     0   0.94   0.21     122
Eduardo Perez      CLE       6     0   0.32   0.15     146
Joe Inglett        CLE      10     0   2.53  -0.03      99
Kelly Shoppach     CLE       4     0   0.78  -0.03      96
Travis Hafner      CLE      50     1   7.22  -0.04      99
Jake Westbrook     CLE       1     0   0.08  -0.08       0
Lou Merloni        CLE       1     0   0.08  -0.08       0
Andy Marte         CLE       5     0   0.92  -0.17      82
Ben Broussard      CLE      21     1   3.15  -0.34      89
Aaron Boone        CLE      29     1   4.44  -1.00      77
Ryan Garko         CLE      18     0   2.49  -1.34      46
Jhonny Peralta     CLE      50     1   8.08  -2.44      70
Victor Martinez    CLE      62     1   9.45  -4.90      48

Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs
Name              Team     Opp ExGAR  EqGAR GARate
Grady Sizemore     CLE      46  4.54   1.29   1.28
Franklin Gutierrez CLE       7  0.56   0.21   1.38
Hector Luna        CLE       7  0.39   0.17   1.45
Ben Broussard      CLE      12  1.18   0.12   1.10
Ryan Garko         CLE       5  0.23   0.08   1.33
Shin-Soo Choo      CLE       8  0.68   0.05   1.08
Todd Hollandsworth CLE       3  0.29   0.04   1.14
Joe Inglett        CLE       8  0.42   0.02   1.05
Eduardo Perez      CLE       6  0.11  -0.01   0.89
Ramon Vazquez      CLE       1  0.02  -0.02   0.00
Andy Marte         CLE       4  0.12  -0.09   0.28
C.C. Sabathia      CLE       1  0.09  -0.09   0.00
Aaron Boone        CLE      15  0.83  -0.15   0.82
Kevin Kouzmanoff   CLE       3  0.21  -0.21   0.00
Ronnie Belliard    CLE      14  0.46  -0.27   0.40
Kelly Shoppach     CLE       5  0.63  -0.37   0.42
Jason Michaels     CLE      18  1.51  -0.40   0.73
Travis Hafner      CLE      31  1.90  -0.84   0.56
Victor Martinez    CLE      29  1.83  -0.97   0.47
Casey Blake        CLE      19  2.14  -1.00   0.53
Jhonny Peralta     CLE      25  1.47  -1.06   0.28

Equivalent Air Advancement Runs
Name              Team    Opps ExAAR  EqAAR AARate
Jhonny Peralta     CLE      23  2.69   1.04   1.39
Jason Michaels     CLE      27  2.68   0.83   1.31
Franklin Gutierrez CLE       8  2.14   0.46   1.22
Ramon Vazquez      CLE       5  1.30   0.45   1.35
Aaron Boone        CLE      17  1.53   0.40   1.26
Joe Inglett        CLE       4  0.58   0.21   1.37
Ronnie Belliard    CLE      12  1.97   0.16   1.08
Victor Martinez    CLE      24  2.20   0.13   1.06
Hector Luna        CLE       2  0.62   0.12   1.20
Andy Marte         CLE       5  0.25   0.10   1.42
Ben Broussard      CLE       9  0.02   0.04   3.15
Travis Hafner      CLE      23  1.28   0.03   1.02
Lou Merloni        CLE       1 -0.01   0.01   0.00
Tim Laker          CLE       1  0.01  -0.01   0.00
Kevin Kouzmanoff   CLE       1  0.01  -0.01   0.00
Eduardo Perez      CLE       1  0.14  -0.14   0.00
Todd Hollandsworth CLE       7  1.46  -0.19   0.87
Shin-Soo Choo      CLE       6  0.00  -0.19 -39.57
Ryan Garko         CLE       5  0.20  -0.20   0.00
Casey Blake        CLE      16  2.47  -0.48   0.80
Grady Sizemore     CLE      42  3.97  -0.53   0.87
Kelly Shoppach     CLE       5  0.49  -1.09  -1.21