”So grandly contested were both [pennant races], so great the excitement, so tense the interest, that in the last month of the season the entire nation became absorbed in the thrilling and nerve racking struggle, and even the Presidential campaign was almost completely overshadowed.”– Sporting Life, October 17, 1908
Before my attention and allegiance shifted due to recent and happy events, I was very pleased to receive Cait Murphy’s Crazy ’08: How a Cast of Cranks, Rogues, Boneheads, and Magnets Created the Greatest Year in Baseball History as a Christmas present. Of course as a lifelong Cubs fan my main interest was in reliving and hopefully foreshadowing a time when, in the words of one Washington sportswriter of the time, they “were grizzlies these Cubs, Ursine Colossi who towered high and frowningly and refused to reckon on anything but victory.” And for Cubs fans perhaps there is something special in the symmetry of the centennial of the Cubs last World Series victory as this year’s edition took the league’s best record into June – a feat that more than one source reminds us was last accomplished by the franchise in yes, you guessed it, 1908. It remains to be seen however, whether Lou Pinella’s Cubs will be able to say as 1908’s manager Frank Chance (known at the time as the “Peerless Leader” or simply “P.L.” for short) did, with that air of arrogance and without sounding ridiculous, “Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?”
But even with my attention somewhat diverted, I shouldn’t have been surprised that in this book Murphy, an assistant managing editor at Fortune magazine, goes so far beyond the Cubs, the Merkle game and its aftermath, that any baseball fan or even history buff, will find it entertaining and a joy to read. Although the book focuses on the National League race it should not be forgotten that the American League race was almost its equal and Murphy devotes a chapter (“That Other Race”) to it as well.
The book follows a mostly chronological course beginning with the events of the 1907-1908 offseason. From the now all-too-familiar inaction in the face of the growing problem of gambling to moves like the St. Louis Browns signing the enigmatic southpaw Rube Waddell to rules changes including the sabermetrically questionable adoption of the modern sacrifice fly rule, and a rule prohibiting pitchers from soiling one of the half dozen or so new balls that enter play each game, Murphy does a fine job of providing context to the season and the times by periodically recalling events from the recent past.
From a baseball perspective her description of the playing conditions in the chapter “The Hot Stove League” is excellent by recapping the evolution of the game on the field in all three primary dimensions and generating one of my favorite lines in the discussion on defense where Murphy quite correctly notes that baseball “is Darwinian in its results but Newtonian in its processes.” Those Darwinian processes, already well established in 1908 and applying their mode of selection, led to the development of relief pitchers, pinch hitters and runners, base coaches, platooning, defensive positioning and strategies, and much more. What accompanied them was a march towards standardization that worked together to contribute to a gradual perfecting of the craft of baseball that we modern fans are the happy beneficiaries of. In the end, she concludes that while there are many things the modern fan (“crank” or “bug” as they were called then) would find strange including whiskey in the stands and the occasional player smoking on the field, the game in 1908 would be entirely recognizable (hot dogs and “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” which made its debut in 1908 to name a couple) in a way that other major sports with shorter pedigrees would not be. At the same time she argues that although in 1908 baseball is already big business and commands an air of respectability that it lacked just a few years before, the 1908 season – with the Merkle game and its aftermath including riots, legal wrangling and at least one death, acting as a catalyst – is when “baseball itself makes its turn into the modern era.” One sign of this new era is that 1908 was the final season for Pittsburgh’s Exposition Park (the site of which sits just east of present PNC Park on the banks of the Allegheny) and Philadelphia’s Baker Bowl, the former being replaced by Forbes Field and the latter by Shibe Park, the first fireproof park made of steel and concrete and built in French Renaissance style for a cool $457,000. Other owners were quick to follow with both Charles Comiskey and Charlie Ebbets buying up land that would eventually host their namesakes.
Along the way the baseball that follows is also nicely setup through opening chapters on the Giants (“Land of the Giants”) and the Cubs (“Origins of a Dynasty”) Murphy takes a look back at how each of the primary combatants in the ’08 race were built (the Giants not so fairly it turns out in a seedy story of destroying the Orioles and using the Reds concocted by John Brush, Andrew Freedman, and John McGraw) interspersed with fascinating profiles of McGraw, Frank Chance, and Johnny Evers. By the time the fourth chapter, titled “Opening Days”, rolls around the reader is well positioned to enjoy the drama that follows.
Off the field the mood of the country and the times is set by the inclusion of six “Time-Outs” or sidebars that periodically appear at the ends of chapters. For example, “Chicago on the Make” closes out the chapter on the building of the Cubs and details the evolution of the city and its leaders in dealing with corruption at various levels that had become rampant by the turn of the century. In other time-outs Murphy recounts the grizzly affair of one of America’s first female serial killers, Belle Gunness, the Doubleday myth, the position and prospects of African-American ballplayers, the scare of early twentieth century anarchism, and finally an entertaining list of the things that some players did in 1908 to “court good luck and drive away hoodoos” (“hoodoos” being the term then in vogue and denoting curses and bad luck). Each is fascinating and provides just enough additional context to give the reader a feel for the place of the game in the first decade of the twentieth century.
But of course the main thrust of the book is the narrative of the 1908 National League season and here Murphy does a fine job by breaking the season down into six chapters with two other chapters devoted specifically to Merkle games one and two with the latter chapter complete with a timeline beginning at dawn and running until game time that serves to build anticipation of the events that follow. But in the earlier chapters recounting the ups and downs of baseball’s long season, rather than focus only on the Giants and Cubs these chapters also take the time to highlight key moments and performers of other teams including Pirates shortstop Honus Wagner who in 1908 had his finest season (.354/.415/.542) while his team fell just short in what became a three-way race after a furious run that saw the Bucs win (13 of 14) before losing to the Cubs at the Westside Grounds 5-2 on October 4th admidst a little controversy. We also here find vignettes featuring Ty Cobb, Nap Lajoie, Hal Chase, Rube Waddell, and Cy Young among others not to mention other actors in the season’s ultimate drama such as Mordecai “Three Fingers” Brown, Roger Bresnahan, Joe Tinker, “Turkey” Mike Donlin, Jimmy Sheckard, Merkle of course, and “Giant Killer” Jack Pfiester who is handed the ball in both Merkel games. And even though the story of the Merkle games and to a lesser extent the season itself, has been told countless times, I’d rather not spoil any more of it since every fresh reading brings a new perspective and Murphy adds plenty of detail that I had either forgotten or had never known. As a final treat and one that fittingly puts a bookend not only on the season but on the personalities that defined the era, Murphy includes an epilogue that tracks the destinies of the major players, managers, and magnates after that special season.
For me, one of the supreme pleasures of being a baseball fan is the way the game connects the past with the present, not only through its numbers, but through its places, stories, and the way that its seminal events are embedded in our culture. Baseball fans, and not just those rooting for the denizens of Wrigley Field, would be well served to remind themselves of how those connections were built and in a sense to maintain them by reading about one special season on its 100th anniversary.
Sunday, June 08, 2008
Crazy for Crazy '08
Sunday, December 23, 2007
The Daily Double
While attempting to recover from a cold I spent a good part of the weekend back in 1984. Yesterday morning I popped in the DVD of the first game of the 1984 NLCS between the Cubs and Padres from the A&E Chicago Cubs Legends: Great Games Collector's Edition DVD Set. I love the set and you can find other sets by following the link to the right. Anyway, I was recounting to my daughters how for this game I left school (I was a junior in high school) at noon with I think an excuse from my parents although I might have feigned illness. As I was leaving for the walk home the superintendent stopped me but after realizing what day it was, and most folks in our small Iowa town did, he simply winked and sent me on my way.
In watching the game again for the first time since it was originally broadcast on ABC I had forgotten that Earl Weaver and Reggie Jackson joined Don Drysdale in the booth. And while generally Weaver and Drysdale provided some insight, Jackson said little that wasn't obvious or that was not from the typical player "guts and glory" script. Interestingly, at the very beginning of the broadcast Jackson noted (incorrectly) how Weaver introduced platooning to the majors several years prior and Weaver offerred a few comments on the particular mix of players he had that made the strategy successful. I had also forgotten that the umpires went on strike seeking better pay for the postseason and so the game was umpired by four replacement umps - one of seven games affected that season. The home plate umpire was inconsistent, a point that Drysdale hammered on, and in at least one instance an umpire found himself out of position although fortunately still got the call correct. As the game went on and finally got out of hand as the Cubs scored six times in the fifth inning, the home plate umpiring became even more inconsistent. Finally, the quality of the broadcast overall was pretty poor it seemed (even for the times since this morning I popped in the DVD of "the Sandberg game" broadcast on NBC earlier that season and which had a much better quality), and there were several glitches along the way. They did, however, introduce their new "super slo-mo" camera jointly developed with Sony and used first at the 1984 Olympics just a few months prior. Unfortunately, although Weaver referred to the stitch configuration on several of the pitches, the quality of the broadcast made it difficult even in slo-mo to see the rotation very well on Rick Suttcliffe's curve and on the Eric Show slider.
In the Sandberg game called by Bob Costas and Tony Kubek there were a couple of great plays by Ozzie Smith in the first three innings that I had forgotten about. Costas used the opportunity to contrast Cubs shortstop Larry Bowa's surehandedness with Smith's great range in pointing about that Smith made something like 140 more plays than Bowa in 1983. They also talked about Bowa turning to glasses and how he was now using the new lenses that darkened in the sun - a point I identified with since about that same time I too went to lenses like that. I'm not sure how long Bowa played with them but I found that after awhile they seemed to never lighten up totally when moving indoors. Costas and Kubek also made the point a couple of times in the broadcast that walks and on base percentage are two of the most underrated statistics in baseball and used the occasion to point out that this was perhaps the most important reason why Gary Matthews was in the third spot in the batting order.
But in watching both games I was thinking about the "Daily Double" of Bob Dernier and Ryne Sandberg in the first two spots in the Cubs order. Dernier of course was added to the roster as a part of the trade with the Phillies in spring training that also netted Gary Matthews and Porfi Altamirano in exchange for Bill Campbell and Mike Diaz. Anyway, I was curious how many runs the Daily Double actually contributed and so here's a look at the 1984 Cubs roster in terms of its baserunning.
Name Opps EqGAR Opps EqSBR Opps EqAAR HAOpps EqHAR Opps EqOAR Opps EqBRR
Bob Dernier 34 1.4 68 0.9 47 0.6 52 1.7 391 1.7 592 6.2
Gary Matthews 29 0.3 27 -1.2 54 0.2 49 2.1 368 1.3 527 2.7
Thad Bosley 4 0.2 6 0.2 7 0.1 7 0.9 66 0.5 90 1.9
Henry Cotto 6 0.5 13 0.0 19 0.9 18 -0.2 141 0.2 197 1.4
Davey Lopes 2 0.1 3 0.4 2 0.0 4 0.7 6 0.0 17 1.1
Leon Durham 17 0.0 24 -0.6 41 0.1 36 1.1 253 0.4 371 1.0
Jay Johnstone 6 0.1 0 0.0 3 0.2 5 0.0 42 0.5 56 0.7
Dick Ruthven 2 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 -0.1 12 0.3 15 0.2
Rick Reuschel 2 0.0 0 0.0 1 0.2 4 0.1 20 -0.1 27 0.1
Steve Lake 4 -0.1 0 0.0 2 0.1 0 0.0 16 0.0 22 0.0
Lee Smith 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0
Tim Stoddard 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 0.0 2 0.0
Dickie Noles 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 4 0.0 4 0.0
Warren Brusstar 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0
Billy Hatcher 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 6 0.0 6 0.0
Bill Buckner 2 0.1 0 0.0 5 -0.1 0 0.0 5 0.0 12 0.0
Scott Sanderson 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 10 0.0 10 0.0
Chuck Rainey 1 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 0.0 6 0.0 9 -0.1
Ron Hassey 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 18 -0.1 18 -0.1
Dan Rohn 1 -0.1 0 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 9 0.0 12 -0.1
Richie Hebner 6 -0.1 1 0.2 5 0.2 7 -0.5 56 0.0 75 -0.2
Steve Trout 3 0.1 0 0.0 3 0.0 4 -0.3 20 -0.1 30 -0.3
Mel Hall 6 -0.4 4 -0.3 6 -0.2 12 0.2 76 0.3 104 -0.3
Tom Veryzer 9 -0.1 0 0.0 1 0.2 2 -0.6 29 0.1 41 -0.4
Ryne Sandberg 24 -0.7 40 1.0 53 -2.8 61 2.3 377 -0.3 555 -0.5
Dave Owen 5 -0.4 3 -1.0 4 -0.1 8 -0.1 49 0.9 69 -0.8
Rich Bordi 1 0.1 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 -1.1 3 0.0 5 -1.1
Larry Bowa 29 1.3 13 -0.6 15 -1.3 25 0.3 201 -0.8 283 -1.1
Gary Woods 8 -0.3 3 -0.1 9 0.6 7 -1.4 52 0.0 79 -1.1
D Eckersley 3 0.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 4 -1.7 15 -0.1 22 -1.6
Ron Cey 25 -0.3 5 -0.7 29 -0.2 37 -0.5 250 0.1 346 -1.6
Rick Sutcliffe 6 0.0 0 0.0 4 -0.5 5 -1.3 26 -0.1 41 -1.9
Keith Moreland 23 -0.3 5 -2.1 31 -1.2 36 0.0 253 1.2 348 -2.4
Jody Davis 21 -0.5 10 -2.3 23 -0.5 29 -2.0 251 0.2 334 -5.2
279 0.8 225 -6.2 365 -3.5 417 -0.5 3039 5.9 4325 -3.4
So Dernier was worth about +6 runs and recorded positive numbers in all five baserunning categories.
EqGAR - advancing on ground outs
EqSBR - stolen base attempts and pick-offs
EqAAR - advancing on fly balls
EqHAR - advancing on hits
EqOAR - other advancement including wild pitches, passed balls, and balks
Sandberg, however, left a little to be desired as he was especially poor in advancing on fly balls and recorded a -2.8 EqAAR.
Overall, the Cubs as a team were at -3.4 although that's not as bad as you might think. Even with that value they placed ninth in baseball since at the time teams did very poorly on average in EqSBR. If we look at the team rankings and add a column for Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EqBRR) without EqSBR included, the Cubs were right in the middle of the pack.
Team EqBRR No EqSBR EqBRR Rank
HOU 3.8 15.9 3
SDN 1.5 12.5 5
NYN 7.7 11.0 1
KCA -4.9 9.1 10
SLN 4.3 7.7 2
TOR 1.8 7.6 4
LAN -10.8 7.4 14
CLE -14.0 6.5 20
CAL -5.0 6.2 11
OAK -0.3 6.0 7
CIN -0.1 5.1 6
TEX -8.3 4.9 12
SFN -11.8 3.3 16
CHN -3.4 2.8 9
ATL -12.7 2.2 17
CHA -11.5 -0.5 15
DET -20.1 -1.7 22
MIN -13.1 -1.8 18
MIL -26.4 -3.3 24
PHI -1.4 -3.9 8
BAL -13.1 -4.4 19
NYA -15.9 -6.6 21
MON -8.9 -10.0 13
PIT -28.1 -12.3 26
SEA -26.5 -12.4 25
BOS -25.8 -16.8 23
One of the reasons that teams did more poorly in EqSBR during that era was that stolen base percentages were lower overall as I discussed in a column back in November and documented by this graph.
Since EqSBR and all the baserunning metrics are based on break-even percentages calculated from Run Expectancy matrices, lower stolen base percentages lead directly to negative EqSBR values. Some readers have pointed out however, that at least some of the difference in success rate over time has to do with the more frequent reliance on the hit and run play in the past. I'm certain that is the case and although you might think that some of that reliance will be offset by increased EqHAR values since on a successful hit and run the runner will advance from first to third more often, that difference will not be reflected in EqHAR. This is the case since EqHAR is calculated based on a comparison to the average success rate for the current season and not against a historical norm. In any case, future adjustments to EqSBR based on whether the batter offered at the pitch (or when not available when the batter strikes out) will be able to better get a handle on this. My suspicion is that even with the adjustments we'll find that EqSBR values will still be lower as increased awareness of the costs of allowing fast but relatively poor success rate players (in the 55-70% range) to steal has driven down their opportunities.
To wrap up lets look at the career baserunning numbers for the Daily Double starting with Sandberg.
Year Team Opps EqGAR Opps EqSBR Opps EqAAR HAOpps EqHAR Opps EqOAR Opps EqBRR
1981 PHI 1 0.1 0 0.0 1 0.0 2 0.1 15 -0.1 19 0.1
1982 CHN 49 4.0 49 -0.8 41 -1.4 42 3.3 332 0.4 513 5.5
1983 CHN 45 1.2 50 1.2 61 -3.0 32 0.7 369 0.0 557 0.1
1984 CHN 24 -0.7 40 1.0 53 -2.8 61 2.3 377 -0.3 555 -0.5
1985 CHN 27 -0.8 64 5.6 52 0.6 47 2.5 372 1.3 562 9.2
1986 CHN 34 0.7 45 1.0 50 -2.0 16 0.5 318 -1.7 463 -1.4
1987 CHN 37 -1.1 23 3.0 32 0.7 39 0.9 297 -1.0 428 2.5
1988 CHN 41 -0.3 36 -0.7 53 0.2 50 0.2 354 -0.3 534 -0.9
1989 CHN 29 -0.9 20 -1.0 40 0.5 64 1.2 356 -0.1 509 -0.3
1990 CHN 26 -0.3 35 1.3 48 0.9 50 0.9 326 -0.1 485 2.7
1991 CHN 30 0.3 34 0.3 66 -1.5 50 -0.6 359 1.7 539 0.2
1992 CHN 42 -1.1 25 0.5 64 -0.7 66 2.5 397 0.3 594 1.5
1993 CHN 27 -0.4 11 0.4 36 0.0 50 2.2 278 -0.1 402 2.1
1994 CHN 14 -0.2 5 -1.4 23 0.4 28 0.6 128 -0.6 198 -1.2
1996 CHN 21 0.3 18 -1.4 40 0.9 40 -0.2 260 -0.3 379 -0.7
1997 CHN 25 -0.2 10 -0.9 26 0.9 30 2.7 213 0.3 304 2.8
472 0.5 465 8.0 686 -6.2 667 19.7 4751 -0.3 7041 21.7
He adds about two wins to his career totals with his work on the bases with almost all of that coming due to his stolen bases, where he was a good career percentage stealer, and advancing on hits. As I remember it his EqGAR and EqAAR totals accurrately reflect the fact that he was less than a stellar runner when it came to making decisions on advancing on ground outs and fly balls, often taking chances that weren't warranted and getting thrown out.
To put some perspective on this, the elite runners who played a few more seasons than Sandberg including Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson, and Willie Wilson are in the +100 run range and someone like Vince Coleman who played about the same length was at +70 runs.
Finally, we'll take a look at Bob Dernier.
Year Team Opps EqGAR Opps EqSBR Opps EqAAR HAOpps EqHAR Opps EqOAR Opps EqBRR
1980 PHI 2 0.0 4 0.1 3 0.0 2 0.5 16 -0.1 27 0.5
1981 PHI 2 -0.1 3 0.2 1 0.0 1 0.2 14 -0.1 21 0.2
1982 PHI 19 -0.2 57 1.2 30 -2.0 29 0.8 210 1.2 345 1.1
1983 PHI 19 0.6 42 1.2 19 -1.1 22 1.8 172 -0.3 274 2.2
1984 CHN 34 1.4 68 0.9 47 0.6 52 1.7 391 1.7 592 6.2
1985 CHN 25 0.2 42 1.8 44 -1.5 37 0.1 275 0.7 423 1.2
1986 CHN 30 0.7 29 4.7 24 -0.1 14 0.2 195 0.9 292 6.5
1987 CHN 11 -0.1 23 -0.2 11 0.0 22 1.4 134 0.0 201 1.1
1988 PHI 23 -0.3 19 0.2 11 -0.3 18 -0.7 122 -0.4 193 -1.4
1989 PHI 8 -0.2 7 -1.2 12 0.0 21 0.9 111 0.7 159 0.2
173 2.0 294 9.0 202 -4.5 218 6.9 1640 4.4 2527 17.8
Dernier had a better overall season on the bases in 1986 and wound up his career at +18 runs overall. As for the Daily Double, their best season together was 1985 when Sandberg was at +9.2 and Dernier at +1.2 for a total of +11.3 runs.
While the actual numbers don't indicate that the Daily Double paid huge dividends with their feet in 1984, their ability to get on base (Dernier's OBP was .356, the second best of his career) and Sandberg's MVP season certainly propelled the offense to a division title and gave us Cubs fans a season we'll never forget.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
And Even More Refinements in SFR
As some readers will know I've been writing the last couple weeks here and on Baseball Prospectus about a play by play fielding system termed Simple Fielding Runs or SFR.
After last week's column I had a chance to tweak the system yet again, and made the following changes.
While I haven't re-run the correlations with UZR I did want to show a few results and so here are all infielders who were assigned 15 or more balls in 2007 in the National League Central. You'll notice that the range is smaller with Milwaukee's infield not looking quite so terrible as in previous versions of the system.
Team Name POS Balls SFR
CHN Carlos Zambrano 1 33 0.6
CHN Jason Marquis 1 30 -0.4
CHN Rich Hill 1 26 -1.7
CHN Ted Lilly 1 30 -1.8
CHN Sean Marshall 1 17 -2.3
CHN Jason Kendall 2 17 -0.5
CHN Michael Barrett 2 23 -0.9
CHN Daryle Ward 3 21 -1.5
CHN Derrek Lee 3 294 -1.8
CHN Ryan Theriot 4 102 1.3
CHN Ronny Cedeno 4 18 0.9
CHN Mike Fontenot 4 200 0.1
CHN Mark DeRosa 4 295 -0.1
CHN Aramis Ramirez 5 406 7.1
CHN Mark DeRosa 5 103 4.9
CHN Cesar Izturis 6 189 2.3
CHN Ryan Theriot 6 405 2.1
CHN Ronny Cedeno 6 48 2.0
-------------------------------------------------
CIN Bobby Livingston 1 17 1.4
CIN Aaron Harang 1 25 0.8
CIN Bronson Arroyo 1 32 -0.4
CIN Matt Belisle 1 18 -0.9
CIN Javier Valentin 2 21 0.0
CIN David Ross 2 49 -0.5
CIN Scott Hatteberg 3 167 1.2
CIN Jeff Conine 3 91 0.1
CIN Jorge Cantu 3 17 -0.9
CIN Joey Votto 3 32 -1.1
CIN Jeff Keppinger 4 16 0.3
CIN Brandon Phillips 4 662 -10.0
CIN Jeff Keppinger 5 34 1.8
CIN Ryan Freel 5 52 0.5
CIN Juan Castro 5 21 -1.5
CIN Edwin Encarnacion 5 402 -10.5
CIN Alex Gonzalez 6 420 2.0
CIN Juan Castro 6 44 -0.5
CIN Jeff Keppinger 6 184 -1.6
CIN Pedro Lopez 6 41 -1.7
-------------------------------------------------
HOU Chris Sampson 1 25 1.9
HOU Roy Oswalt 1 38 1.2
HOU Wandy Rodriguez 1 22 1.0
HOU Woody Williams 1 40 0.2
HOU Dave Borkowski 1 21 0.0
HOU Brad Ausmus 2 35 0.1
HOU Eric Munson 2 18 -0.2
HOU Mark Loretta 3 51 2.9
HOU Mike Lamb 3 67 -1.1
HOU Lance Berkman 3 277 -3.5
HOU Chris Burke 4 150 2.5
HOU Mark Loretta 4 77 -0.3
HOU Craig Biggio 4 398 -9.7
HOU Ty Wigginton 5 143 1.7
HOU Mark Loretta 5 48 -0.5
HOU Mike Lamb 5 144 -3.5
HOU Morgan Ensberg 5 186 -9.0
HOU Adam Everett 6 281 9.4
HOU Eric Bruntlett 6 180 0.3
HOU Cody Ransom 6 35 -0.1
HOU Mark Loretta 6 248 -2.2
-------------------------------------------------
MIL Jeff Suppan 1 35 2.1
MIL Chris Capuano 1 30 1.1
MIL Dave Bush 1 26 0.4
MIL Claudio Vargas 1 15 0.2
MIL Johnny Estrada 2 38 0.8
MIL Tony Graffanino 3 25 0.7
MIL Prince Fielder 3 325 -9.7
MIL Craig Counsell 4 84 3.0
MIL Tony Graffanino 4 92 0.5
MIL Rickie Weeks 4 439 -21.4
MIL Craig Counsell 5 112 3.9
MIL Tony Graffanino 5 74 2.2
MIL Ryan Braun 5 309 -24.7
MIL Craig Counsell 6 79 -0.1
MIL J.J. Hardy 6 619 -1.7
-------------------------------------------------
PIT Matt Morris 1 18 1.6
PIT Ian Snell 1 20 1.6
PIT Paul Maholm 1 35 0.8
PIT Shawn Chacon 1 20 0.4
PIT Tom Gorzelanny 1 28 -0.4
PIT Zach Duke 1 23 -0.6
PIT Ronny Paulino 2 42 0.7
PIT Adam LaRoche 3 327 3.0
PIT Josh Phelps 3 25 1.2
PIT Matt Kata 4 18 -1.9
PIT Jose Castillo 4 56 -5.7
PIT Freddy Sanchez 4 526 -13.0
PIT Jose Castillo 5 130 2.6
PIT Matt Kata 5 23 0.1
PIT Jose Bautista 5 410 -4.8
PIT Cesar Izturis 6 107 -0.5
PIT Jack Wilson 6 665 -0.6
PIT Jose Castillo 6 32 -0.6
-------------------------------------------------
SLN Adam Wainwright 1 29 1.8
SLN Braden Looper 1 21 0.4
SLN Joel Pineiro 1 15 0.2
SLN Kip Wells 1 23 -0.5
SLN Yadier Molina 2 34 0.9
SLN Gary Bennett 2 17 0.1
SLN Albert Pujols 3 396 10.6
SLN Brendan Ryan 4 64 1.3
SLN Miguel Cairo 4 19 0.6
SLN Aaron Miles 4 242 -0.8
SLN Adam Kennedy 4 333 -2.8
SLN Scott Rolen 5 351 13.7
SLN Scott Spiezio 5 68 2.4
SLN Russell Branyan 5 28 1.6
SLN Miguel Cairo 5 31 1.5
SLN Brendan Ryan 5 72 0.3
SLN Brendan Ryan 6 91 3.7
SLN Brian Barden 6 17 1.0
SLN David Eckstein 6 493 -7.2
SLN Aaron Miles 6 155 -8.6
Monday, October 08, 2007
Light Reading
A couple interesting links:
Monday, October 01, 2007
Cubs and Rockies Play On
I've been so busy being a fan the last week I've had little time to put on my analyst hat. With the Cubs looking so strong at the beginning of last week, being swept by the Marlins, and then rebounding against the Reds to clinch the division on Friday night there's been some ups and downs to say the least. They're now getting set to take on the Diamondbacks starting Wednesday with Carlos Zambrano on the hill against Brandon Webb. And then when you add the excitement of the Rockies improbable 13-1 finish to tie the Padres and force today's one game playoff, hopefully you'll forgive the lack of content here during the season's waning days.
I worked Saturday night's game for MLB.com at Coors Field and you could feel the tension in the press box as the Padres held a 3-2 lead in the ninth inning at Milwaukee just minutes before game time. Once Tony Gwynn Jr. hit the triple to tie it, however, the tension was lifted and was completely obliterated when the Rockies jumped all over the Diamondbacks in the first inning on their way to an 11-1 win.
On the Rockies and tonight's game, Nate Silver has a nice piece on SI.com about today's game and predicts a 5-3 win for the Pads behind Jake Peavy. Although Josh Fogg has thrown pretty well in September (6 2/3 of scoreless baseball against the Dodgers on the 9/26 and a 3.25 ERA for the month) I still think I'd rather see Franklin Morales take the ball (2.88 ERA in September with 16 hits given up in 25 innings with 20 Ks against just 6 walks). In any case my hope is that Clint Hurdle is ready for the early hook and doesn't endure one of Fogg's Funks where he suddenly loses the strike zone. Although the Rockies are playing at home where they've been excellent (50-31), facing Peavy on normal rest will be a tough task to say the least. In his two previous outings against the Rockies this season at Petco he's thrown 14 innings and given up 2 runs on 8 hits. For that reason I too would have to pick the Padres if I were betting but confidence can do wonders. That confidence is based not only on the fabulous finish but also on the fact that since May 22nd the Rockies have been the best team in the National League with a 71-46 record (the Yankees went 74-45).
Taking a longer term historical view, tonight's game will mark the twelfth time (including three Wild Card races) in big league history that the season has been extended past the 154 or 162 game schedule. All but the 1915 Federal League season, in which there was no provision in place for playing a tie-breaker, resulted in a playoff. In the NL a three-game playoff was the rule beginning with the 1946 playoff between the Dodgers and Cardinals and ending with the advent of divisional play in 1969. In AL a one-game playoff decided things beginning with the 1948 race. Without further ado, here is the chronological list of the regular season playoffs that decided the affair.
Saturday, September 01, 2007
The Stretch Run
If you're a Cubs fan life is pretty good. Despite a 6-1 loss to the Astros last night, as we head into September the team is in first place in the central division and although the Cardinals have looked stronger in the past month, little about the Redbirds or the Brewers is particularly scary. In addition Alfonso Soriano is back from the DL, Cliff Floyd from the berevement list and both Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee, who together have supplied much of the offense, are apparently healthy and on the field. Carlos Marmol continues to mow down opposing hitters and Rich Hill and Carlos Zambrano continue to be mostly effective.
So in celebration of entering the final month in first here is the complete list of other occasions on which the Cubs found themselves tied or in first at the close of September 1st along with their record on that day and a comment on each season.
Year W L T Pct Comments
1989 75 59 0 0.560 Win the division and then dispatched by Will Clark
1984 81 54 0 0.600 Win the division and then …
1945 76 47 1 0.618 Lose to the Tigers in a 7-game WS
1929 84 41 4 0.672 Win 98 games but lose to the A's 4-1 in the WS
1918 83 44 2 0.654 Lose to Ruth's Red Sox in the WS
1914 63 57 2 0.525 Fade to 78-76, 16.5 games behind the Miracle in 4th place
1912 79 43 1 0.648 Finish 91-59 but finish 11.5 games behind the Giants in 3rd place
1909 80 38 1 0.678 Win 104 games but Wagner's Pirates win 110
1907 89 33 1 0.730 Win 107 and beat the Tigers in the series
1906 92 31 3 0.748 116 wins but lose in the WS 4-2 to the White Sox
1904 69 46 3 0.600 Go 93-60 but finish 13 games behind the Giants
Yes, just twice in my lifetime has it been the case that the Cubs weren't looking uphill or in many cases up a sheef cliff face as the calendar turned. In fact, this season marks just the 20th time the Cubs have had a .500 record or better on September 1st since 1945 and the fourth time this decade. So while there is always a feeling of impending doom in the soul of a Cubs fan, today is a good day and we'll leave it at that.
Friday, July 20, 2007
Bunting and Izturis
My column this week extends last week's discussion of bunting for a hit by examining the strategy behind it using run expectancy. I didn't cover all the nuances I'm sure but wanted to make the article a basic introduction to using the break even formula and how that can apply to a strategy. I also answer a few reader questions along the way.
By the way, hate to say I told you so but in my August 10th column of last year I noted:
In picking up Izturis and his $3.2 million contract for this year, $4.25 million for next year [note: the Cubs sent $1.4m to the Pirates in the deal] and club but out for $300,000 in 2008 (that they'll likely be exercising), the Cubs have elevated the mistake they've been making with reserves to not one but two starting positions.
The core problem is that in Izturis they now have a player who, at his best in 2004, recorded a WARP1 of 3.5. This was when his batting line exceeded his career marks by +.28/+.36/+.43 and he won a Gold Glove. His more typical seasons in 2003 and 2005 were at 2.6 and 2.0, respectively, with his offensive performances actually below the level of a replacement player. In 2005 he ranked 30th of 31 shortstops with 300 or more plate appearances in VORP at -4.2 (Cristian Guzman was 31st with a whopping -14.9)--a trend he has continued thus far in 2006.
Much of the recent hype surrounding Izturis has been built on the strength of a great April and May of 2005 when he hit .342 and earned an All-Star selection. In other words, the likely outcome of the deal is to extend the search for the next Ricky Gutierrez a year and half while enduring Neifi-like production at shortstop to go with above average defense (The Fielding Bible had Izturis at +10, +19, and +4 in 2003-2005 ranking him 7th, 2nd, and 15th respectively and 6th overall during the time period). Of course that's perhaps even optimistic since Hendry and company may also have repeated their Garciaparra move ("fool me once, shame on me…") by obtaining a player fresh off an injury (degenerative arthritis in his right elbow that required Tommy John last September).
And of course what it also did was relegate Ronny Cedeno first to second base and then to the minor leagues where he is now hitting .369 and showing some power (.562). I'm not convinced Ryan Theriot is the real deal and would like to see Cedeno get another shot this year.
Saturday, June 09, 2007
A Soriano Trifecta
Last night in Atlanta Alfonso Soriano homered in each of his first three plate appearances before being intentionally walked, grounding out, and then singling in the ninth inning. His four for five day led the Cubs to a 9-1 victory over the Braves. After a fairly slow start (.270/.392/.308 in April) he hit .302/.500/.362 in May and is 19 for 37 in June a double, 2 triples, and 6 homeruns giving him 10 homeruns for the season. This season he's as aggressive as ever seeing 3.69 pitches per plate appearance and in the metrics on plate discipline I discussed the other day he swings at the highest percentage of pitches (54.8%) that are out of the strike zone of anyone not named Ivan Rodriguez. However, he's just about average in terms of the percentage of strikes he lets by (23%). In any case everything is working for him at the moment and on Friday night he jumped on the first pitch three times. Here are his five plate appearances from Friday night along with a chart of all the pitches he saw.
The number in the upper right hand corner indicate the pitch number along with the starting velocity, ending velocity, and break of the pitch. The pitches are color-coded and their shapes follow this key (you can click on any of the images to make them bigger):
Thursday, March 22, 2007
It Takes Two
My column today on Baseball Prospectus revolved around the double steal and tackling questions like how often it's been employed, how successfully, and whether that tracks with what is optimum from a strategic perspective. While there are some issues with the underlying play by play data that make it difficult to count all such attempts, we can get pretty close. One of the tables I left out of that article was the career numbers for the current crop of managers. The following table lists the 30 managers from 2006 and their career numbers on double steals.
Note: A successful double steal is one in which both runners are credited with a stolen base or neither runner is put out.
Name Years Succ Att Pct Att/Yr
Ken Macha 4 5 5 1.000 1.3
Terry Francona 6 12 13 0.923 2.2
Mike Scioscia 7 43 48 0.896 6.9
Willie Randolph 2 14 16 0.875 8.0
Charlie Manuel 5 15 18 0.833 3.6
Joe Girardi 1 5 6 0.833 6.0
Sam Perlozzo 2 9 11 0.818 5.5
Ned Yost 4 8 10 0.800 2.5
Jerry Narron 4 20 26 0.769 6.5
Bob Melvin 4 19 25 0.760 6.3
Jim Tracy 6 15 20 0.750 3.3
Phil Garner 13 24 32 0.750 2.5
Tony LaRussa 28 160 219 0.731 7.8
Grady Little 3 5 7 0.714 2.3
Ron Gardenhire 5 22 31 0.710 6.2
Mike Hargrove 14 87 124 0.702 8.9
Felipe Alou 13 56 80 0.700 6.2
Joe Torre 24 111 165 0.673 6.9
Buddy Bell 8 39 58 0.672 7.3
Bruce Bochy 11 51 76 0.671 6.9
Jim Leyland 14 67 101 0.663 7.2
Bobby Cox 24 61 92 0.663 3.8
Clint Hurdle 5 9 14 0.643 2.8
Ozzie Guillen 3 7 11 0.636 3.7
Buck Showalter 10 18 29 0.621 2.9
Dusty Baker 13 27 45 0.600 3.5
John Gibbons 3 7 12 0.583 4.0
Eric Wedge 4 9 17 0.529 4.3
Frank Robinson 16 46 92 0.500 5.8
Joe Maddon 2 3 6 0.500 3.0
In this current crop of managers Mike Scioscia is by far the leader in terms of success and in 2006 was 13 for 13. Both Mike Hargrove and Willie Randolph have called for 8 or more per season and Tony LaRussa is close at 7.8. Lou Pinella wasn't included in this list since he didn't manage in 2006 but historically he is 111 for 160 in his 18 years for a .694 percentage and averaging 8.9 attempts per season. Cubs fans should expect a few double steals in 2006. Let's just hope they come with a few wins as well.
Monday, March 12, 2007
Fergie
Last weekend I had the chance to make a quick trip to Spring Training sites in Arizona attending four games in three days. I'll have more to report on Baseball Prospectus and here but one of the interesting little diversions was found at Surprise Stadium on Saturday afternoon. About 45 minutes prior to game time a panel was held that included eight women who played in the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League. The league was in existence from 1943-1954 and was of course made famous by the 1992 film A League of Their Own. I didn't realize that at first the game they played was actually softball but that the rules were changed over time to make them identical to baseball. Too bad that trend didn't take hold.
In any case the ladies answered questions from the audience and each shared which teams they played for. For the most part the women were paid between $50 and $65 a week with $3.50 per day meal money, which many of them insisted was good money for the time. 
In addition to the ladies, Fergie Jenkins, who lives in the area, was on the panel and alternated taking questions from the bevy of Cubs fans in attendance (the Cubs were playing the Royals that day). 
Jenkins was asked the inevitable Ron Santo why isn't he in the Hall of Fame question and simply stated that the process is broken and that he would like to know the five members who didn't vote for him. In a conversation afterwards as I procured a signed baseball, he said he thought when Bruce Sutter was inducted, that it would have been fitting for Rich Gossage and Lee Smith to go in at the same time. He also talked about his charitable work a bit and when questioned about pitch counts was adamant that there is a causal link between the money pitchers make today and their use of the disabled list (he said he was on the DL once and only because of a ruptured achilles). He also said that in his final spring start of the year he would go 9 innings to ensure that he could do so once the season started. He completed 267 games in his career.
As Fergie was finishing out his career with the Cubs in 1982-83 I can recall tuning into as many of his starts as possible and scoring the games when I could (the game prior to the one where he recorded his 3,000th strikeout sticks in mind particularly). I was amazed by his control and his pitching patterns and even purchased his book on pitching written with David Fischer, Inside Pitching and tried to apply what I could to my high school pitching career such as it was. In any case it was a great pleasure meeting him.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Aging and the Cubs
In my column today on BP I discuss the aging of teams and how that might relate, in the big picture anyway, to winning games on the field. In that column I showed an example of the Detroit Tigers from 1980 through 2006 and how team age tracked with winning percentage to a certain degree.
I thought it would also be interesting to take a look at the Cubs and so the graph below tracks the Normalized Weighted Age or NWA (defined as the weighted age of the team divided by the mean weighted age for the league and year where weighted age is calculated by weighting plate appearances and innings pitched and then multiplying the position player age by .6 and the pitcher age by .4) and winning percentage by year. 
What's interesting here of course is that as the Cubs teams of the late 1960s with Ron Santo, Billy Williams, and Fergie Jenkins matured they improved. In the 1970s the team age fell to around league average and the record hovered just under .500. As the 1980s dawned the team initially got younger before Dallas Green brought in a set of veterans (Larry Bowa, Ron Cey, Gary Matthews, Dennis Eckersley) that took them to a .596 winning percentage in 1984.
Those veterans then moved on or retired and a very young team (Mark Grace, Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith, Greg Maddux) in 1989 was able to become an exception to the general rule and win the division. The team then got older in the early 1990s (Grace and Ryne Sandburg being the core) and returned to mediocrity before bringing in veteran pitchers like Kevin Tapani and Terry Mullholland and position players Gary Gaetti, Mickey Morandini, Scott Servias, and Lance Johnson along with a maturing Sammy Sosa for their Wild Card berth in 1998.
That team as well was on its last gasps and quickly crashed although they restocked with veterans Eric Young, Matt Stairs, and Jon Lieber to remain respectable in 2001. The young pitchers combined with a good mix of veteran and young positions players had the Cubs in the "sweet spot" in 2003 and 2004 although they did not capitalize. The last several years are more painful but obviously the team has gotten younger (especially on the mound in 2006) and performed poorly.
Given the massive free agent spending this winter the NWA for 2007 will likely rise to the 1.2-1.5 range and Cubs fans anyway, expect the winning percentage to rise as well.
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
Team Running - Chicago Cubs
In our second installment of team running metrics I offer the Chicago Cubs. As a team the Cubs ranked 11th without EqSBR included at +2.66 runs and 9th when it was included at -2.94 runs. Essentially the Cubs did fairly well because no one did really really badly. Even their worse runner in Michal Barrett (-2.25) only cost them a couple runs while most everyone else, for example Jacque Jones at +.06, was mediocre. Of course, the team will look much different in 2007 with Alfonso Soriano in centerfield (-4.41 in 2007 near the bottom), Mark DeRosa (-1.87), and Cliff Floyd (+.15) in the outfield and with hopefully a full season from Derrek Lee at first base. I certainly wouldn't look for them to improve as the team has gotten older (they had a weighted mean age in 2006 of .98 and so were slightly younger than the average Major League team and age is correlated with doing well in these metrics).
Equivalent Stolen Base Runs
Name Team SB PO CS EqSBR
Juan Pierre CHN 58 1 20 1.40
Jacque Jones CHN 9 0 1 0.99
Ryan Theriot CHN 11 1 2 0.11
Carlos Zambrano CHN 1 0 0 0.10
Greg Maddux CHN 1 0 0 0.10
Angel Pagan CHN 4 0 2 0.06
Jerry Hairston CHN 3 1 0 -0.02
Cesar Izturis CHN 0 0 1 -0.24
Neifi Perez CHN 0 0 1 -0.24
Tony Womack CHN 1 0 1 -0.29
Aramis Ramirez CHN 2 0 1 -0.32
Todd Walker CHN 0 0 1 -0.44
Phil Nevin CHN 0 1 0 -0.63
Matt Murton CHN 5 1 2 -0.79
Freddie Bynum CHN 8 0 4 -0.80
Derrek Lee CHN 6 0 4 -0.87
Michael Barrett CHN 0 1 1 -0.90
Ronny Cedeno CHN 7 0 8 -2.81
Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs
Name Team Opp OA ExHAR EqHAR HARate
Todd Walker CHN 31 0 3.21 1.55 148
Matt Murton CHN 45 0 6.68 1.43 121
Neifi Perez CHN 20 0 5.43 0.98 118
Juan Pierre CHN 47 1 5.36 0.81 115
Ryan Theriot CHN 15 0 2.34 0.63 127
Freddie Bynum CHN 10 0 1.00 0.31 132
Tony Womack CHN 5 0 0.89 0.23 125
Angel Pagan CHN 15 0 1.35 0.18 114
Ronny Cedeno CHN 32 1 6.64 0.18 103
Cesar Izturis CHN 3 0 0.14 0.08 155
Scott Moore CHN 2 0 0.71 0.07 110
Juan Mateo CHN 1 0 0.68 0.06 108
Will Ohman CHN 1 0 0.02 0.02 198
Phil Nevin CHN 9 0 1.48 -0.01 99
Derrek Lee CHN 14 0 1.37 -0.03 98
Sean Marshall CHN 1 0 0.04 -0.04 0
Carlos Zambrano CHN 2 0 0.04 -0.04 0
Glendon Rusch CHN 1 0 0.08 -0.08 0
Jerry Hairston CHN 5 0 1.57 -0.10 94
Henry Blanco CHN 17 0 1.92 -0.42 78
John Mabry CHN 10 0 0.89 -0.50 44
Michael Barrett CHN 27 1 3.31 -0.51 85
Aramis Ramirez CHN 47 1 7.69 -0.57 93
Carlos Marmol CHN 2 0 0.64 -0.64 0
Jacque Jones CHN 33 1 4.32 -0.73 83
Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs
Name Team Opp ExGAR EqGAR GARate
Ronny Cedeno CHN 32 3.27 1.23 1.38
Neifi Perez CHN 13 0.91 0.92 2.01
Ryan Theriot CHN 7 1.17 0.77 1.66
Juan Pierre CHN 66 6.80 0.24 1.04
Jerry Hairston CHN 6 0.27 0.17 1.65
Carlos Marmol CHN 1 0.12 0.15 2.19
Tony Womack CHN 4 0.17 0.14 1.84
Michael Restovich CHN 1 0.02 0.08 4.39
Angel Pagan CHN 10 0.88 0.07 1.09
Cesar Izturis CHN 6 0.23 0.03 1.12
Greg Maddux CHN 1 0.26 0.01 1.04
Freddie Bynum CHN 10 1.25 -0.01 0.99
Carlos Zambrano CHN 3 0.17 -0.02 0.89
Bob Howry CHN 1 0.03 -0.03 0.00
Derrek Lee CHN 1 0.04 -0.04 0.00
Todd Walker CHN 17 0.81 -0.04 0.95
Henry Blanco CHN 15 1.31 -0.05 0.96
John Mabry CHN 15 0.62 -0.06 0.91
Geovany Soto CHN 2 0.07 -0.07 0.00
Phil Nevin CHN 9 0.36 -0.17 0.54
Jacque Jones CHN 36 2.68 -0.23 0.91
Aramis Ramirez CHN 33 2.82 -0.67 0.76
Matt Murton CHN 38 3.00 -0.80 0.73
Michael Barrett CHN 25 1.32 -1.16 0.12
Equivalent Air Advancement Runs
Name Team Opps ExAAR EqAAR AARate
Juan Pierre CHN 45 5.02 1.84 1.37
Derrek Lee CHN 11 1.11 0.75 1.68
Ronny Cedeno CHN 11 0.94 0.47 1.50
Michael Barrett CHN 17 0.93 0.31 1.33
Ryan Theriot CHN 7 0.07 0.28 5.08
Greg Maddux CHN 1 0.24 0.10 1.42
Todd Walker CHN 17 1.62 0.08 1.05
Scott Moore CHN 2 0.03 0.06 2.92
Neifi Perez CHN 10 -0.02 0.05 0.00
Jacque Jones CHN 20 1.34 0.04 1.03
Cesar Izturis CHN 4 -0.03 0.03 0.00
Tony Womack CHN 2 0.01 0.02 2.16
Geovany Soto CHN 1 0.00 0.01 0.00
Sean Marshall CHN 1 0.00 0.01 0.00
Buck Coats CHN 1 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jerry Hairston CHN 1 0.01 -0.01 0.00
Matt Murton CHN 29 3.08 -0.30 0.90
Freddie Bynum CHN 5 0.68 -0.68 0.00
Phil Nevin CHN 6 1.03 -0.68 0.34
Henry Blanco CHN 13 0.69 -0.69 0.00
John Mabry CHN 5 0.70 -0.70 0.00
Aramis Ramirez CHN 28 3.03 -0.85 0.72
Angel Pagan CHN 6 1.39 -1.04 0.25
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