A Common Theme

Coincidentally, the John Dewan stat of the week this week happens to correspond quite nicely with my Schrodinger's Bat column titled "Clearing the Decks" posted today on Baseball Prospectus. John talks about the best bunters of 2007 and in my column I do a little of that in relation to the Tattered Cover book signing that I pariticpated in several weeks ago before moving on to the minor leagues best bunters from 2005 through 2007.

In additon I take a look at the concept of "free bases" recently discussed by Rangers' staff as well as the recent 2008 Scout's Honor Results posted on MLB.com. It's in that section that I revisit the topic of bunting a little and have this to say on the scout's choices in that category.

Best Bunter: Juan Pierre, with Ichiro Suzuki runner-up. Near and dear to the first topic discussed this week. While Pierre is the most prolific bunter over the past six years (320 attempts), his success rate ranks 16th out of the 18 players with 75 or more attempts during that span, with a success rate of 41 percent. Suzuki doesn't bunt nearly as often, but does succeed more frequently at 59 percent in 59 attempts. No, Willy Taveras would clearly be the better choice with Luis Castillo (54 percent in 84 attempts) and Corey Patterson (51 percent in 128 attempts) undoubtedly better as well.

Of course I critique a few of the other choices as well...

Baseball Prospectus Top 100

At Baseball Prospectus today we published our top 100 prospects list as compiled by Keving Goldstein. Jay Bruce leads the field and below is the list ordered by team so you can count and debate your favorites. In terms of sheer numbers the A's, Rangers, and Red Sox each have seven prospects in the list while the White Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, Mets, Tigers, and Astros have one a piece.

Rank/Name              Pos     Team
27. Nick Adenhart      rhp     Angels
38. Brandon Wood       3b/ss   Angels
59. Jordan Walden      rhp     Angels
89. Hank Conger        c       Angels
54. J.R. Towles        c       Astros
22. Daric Barton       1b      Athletics
26. Carlos Gonzalez    of      Athletics
46. Fautino de los San rhp     Athletics
50. Brett Anderson     lhp     Athletics
56. Gio Gonzalez       lhp     Athletics
98. Trevor Cahill      rhp     Athletics
99. Chris Carter       1b      Athletics
7.  Travis Snider       of     Blue Jays
17. Jordan Schafer     of      Braves
36. Jason Heyward      of      Braves
63. Brent Lillibridge  ss      Braves
70. Brandon Jones      of      Braves
83. Gorkys Hernandez   of      Braves
86. Jair Jurrjens      rhp     Braves
31. Matt LaPorta       of      Brewers
42. Manny Parra        lhp     Brewers
76. Jeremy Jeffress    rhp     Brewers
8.  Colby Rasmus        of     Cardinals
69. Chris Perez        rhp     Cardinals
71. Bryan Anderson     c       Cardinals
37. Geovany Soto       c       Cubs
45. Josh Vitters       3b      Cubs
40. Jacob McGee        lhp     Devil Rays
20. Jarrod Parker      rhp     Diamondbacks
64. Gerardo Parra      of      Diamondbacks
90. Max Scherzer       rhp     Diamondbacks
5.  Clayton Kershaw     lhp    Dodgers
14. Andy LaRoche       3b      Dodgers
32. Chin-Lung Hu       ss      Dodgers
66. Scott Elbert       lhp     Dodgers
78. Wes Hodges         3b      Georgia Tech
29. Angel Villalona    3b      Giants
84. Henry Sosa         rhp     Giants
52. Adam Miller        rhp     Indians
33. Jeff Clement       c       Mariners
44. Chris Tillman      rhp     Mariners
55. Carlos Triunfel    ss      Mariners
93. Wladimir Balentien of      Mariners
10. Cameron Maybin     of      Marlins
88. Chris Volstad      rhp     Marlins
51. Fernando Martinez  of      Mets
28. Chris Marrero      of/1b   Nationals
35. Ross Detwiler      rhp     Nationals
81. Michael Burgess    of      Nationals
12. Matt Wieters       c       Orioles
75. Chorye Spoone      rhp     Orioles
85. Radhames Liz       rhp     Orioles
23. Chase Headley      3b      Padres
39. Matt Antonelli     2b      Padres
61. Matt Latos         rhp     Padres
68. Carlos Carrasco    rhp     Phillies
96. Joe Savery         lhp     Phillies
24. Andrew McCutchen   of      Pirates
43. Steven Pearce      1b      Pirates
94. Neil Walker        3b      Pirates
30. Neftali Feliz      rhp     Rangers
49. Eric Hurley        rhp     Rangers
58. Elvis Andrus       ss      Rangers
62. Engel Beltre       of      Rangers
73. Michael Main       rhp     Rangers
74. Chris Davis        3b      Rangers
77. Taylor Teagarden   c       Rangers
3.  Evan Longoria       3b     Rays
6.  David Price         lhp    Rays
15. Wade Davis         rhp     Rays
18. Desmond Jennings   of      Rays
25. Reid Brignac       ss      Rays
2.  Clay Buchholz       rhp    Red Sox
16. Jacoby Ellsbury    of      Red Sox
53. Justin Masterson   rhp     Red Sox
57. Jed Lowrie         ss      Red Sox
60. Ryan Kalish        of      Red Sox
95. Michael Bowden     rhp     Red Sox
100.Lars Anderson     1b       Red Sox
1.  Jay Bruce           of     Reds
9.  Homer Bailey        rhp    Reds
21. Joey Votto         1b      Reds
41. Johnny Cueto       rhp     Reds
13. Franklin Morales   lhp     Rockies
80. Chris Nelson       ss      Rockies
82. Greg Reynolds      rhp     Rockies
91. Casey Weathers     rhp     Rockies
92. Dexter Fowler      of      Rockies
19. Mike Moustakas     ss      Royals
72. Luke Hochevar      rhp     Royals
11. Rick Porcello      rhp     Tigers
65. Carlos Gomez       of      Twins
79. Deolis Guerra      rhp     Twins
97. Ben Revere         of      Twins
87. Aaron Poreda       lhp     White Sox
4.  Joba Chamberlain    rhp    Yankees
34. Ian Kennedy        rhp     Yankees
47. Austin Jackson     of      Yankees
48. Jose Tabata        of      Yankees
67. Alan Horne         rhp     Yankees

Baserunning in a Minor Key

This week on Baseball Prospectus my focus on baserunning turns to the minor leagues as I present the leaders and trailers at the four top levels of the minors (AAA, AA, high and low A) and then an aggregate total to account for players who moved between leagues.

Braves fans may be interested to learn that Gorkys Hernandez fared particularly well and finished second in the minors by contributing +10.2 runs overall on the bases. He was excellent at going from first to third and second to home on hits (easily tops at the level in EqHAR), and stole bases at an 83% rate, good for +2.5 runs. On the other hand former Moneyball pinup Jeremy Brown was the clear winner of the "Triple-A Plodder Award", giving up 8.8 runs, 7.6 of those while attempting, or not attempting, to advance on hits (EqHAR). His total in that category was almost 2.5runs worse than anyone else at his level as he managed to get thrown out four of the six times he tried to advance on hits in 30 opportunities.

I thought it might also be interesting to take a look at how a few of the other top prospects going into 2007 fared. So below we have a table of those players who made it into the top 20 of Baseball America's Top Prospects list published at the end of February.

Name              Team   Lg     Opps  EqGAR  Opps  EqSBR  Opps  EqAAR  Opps  EqHAR  Opps  EqOAR EqRuns
Andrew McCutchen  ALT    EAS      33    1.0    18    1.8    19   -0.1    38    1.3   260   -0.4    3.6
Andrew McCutchen  IND    INT       3    0.2     9    0.5     3   -0.1     2    0.4    40    0.1    1.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Andy LaRoche      LAN    MJ        4    0.0     3    0.1     0    0.0     9    0.7    59   -0.1    0.8
Andy LaRoche      LVG    PCL      11    0.5     7   -1.1    16    0.8    22    0.9   153   -0.5    0.8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brandon Wood      ANA    MJ        2    0.1     0    0.0     1    0.0     0    0.0    10    0.0    0.0
Brandon Wood      SLC    PCL      16    0.2    13    1.1    19    0.5    35    1.9   236    0.1    3.7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cameron Maybin    ESW    EAS       1    0.0     0    0.0     3    0.0     2    0.1    18   -0.1    0.0
Cameron Maybin    LAK    FSL      18    1.2    32    0.0    18    0.6    27    0.4   192    0.1    2.4
Cameron Maybin    TGR    GCL       0    0.0     0    0.0     0    0.0     0    0.0     6   -0.1   -0.1
Cameron Maybin    DET    MJ        2   -0.2     5    0.8     0    0.0     3    0.4    26   -0.1    1.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Evan Longoria     DUB    INT       3   -0.2     0    0.0     5   -0.7    11    1.2    61   -0.3    0.0
Evan Longoria     MON    SOU      21   -0.2     4    0.6    23    1.2    44    0.8   257   -1.2    1.2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jay Bruce         SAR    FSL       7    0.4    10    0.3    15   -0.3    25   -0.1   145   -0.4    0.0
Jay Bruce         LOU    INT      10   -0.2     4   -0.6    10    0.4    14   -1.2   114    0.1   -1.5
Jay Bruce         CNG    SOU       2   -0.1     4   -0.2     5    0.2     6    0.4    43   -0.3   -0.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reid Brignac      MON    SOU      16   -1.1    21    0.2    20    1.3    51    1.8   277   -0.4    1.9

While on the subject of baserunning I wanted to point out that I posted a comparison of the baserunning numbers published in the latest Bill James Handbook to my system both at the individual and team level on BP Unfiltered.

Third Base Focus

Over the weekend I had the opportunity to take in two Sky Sox games here in Colorado Springs. On Friday night the Sox took on the AAA affiliate of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Salt Lake Bees. The game gave me a chance to take a look at two of the better third base prospects in baseball in Ian Stewart for the Sox and Brandon Wood for the Beavers. Both players were promoted to AAA from AA at the start of the season and both have struggled a bit. Last season Wood put up .276/.552/.355 line on his way to being named a AA All-Star at Arkansas. This after hitting 43 homeruns and racking up 101 extra base hits in the California League in 2005. For the Bees he's sitting at .257/.479/.338. On Friday night he struggled making two errors behind starter Kasey Olenberger leading to 4 unearned runs. He also looked a little uncomfortable at the plate and was able to manage only a sacrifice fly. The Bees still won, however, 7-5 behind Curtis Pride who stroked a go-ahead two-run double during a six-run fifth inning. Sox outfielder Alexis Gomez homered for Colorado Springs earlier in the game but in the 8th inning and down 7-5 with two outs he hit a gapper to left-center. However, rather than settle for the double he tried to stretch it into a triple and was thrown out - an absolutely terrible play.

Stewart was a bit of a disappointment last season hitting .268/.452/.351 at Tulsa with just 10 homeruns (but racking up 41 doubles). This season he's at .296/.472/.376 albeit at a higher altitue and has 10 homeruns at this point. Stewart's defense improved last season and on Saturday night against the Portland Beavers (affiliate of the Padres) he made a diving stop and threw out a runner from his knees.

In that Saturday game the headlines were stolen by Sox pitcher Kevin Walker who threw a five-hit complete game in a 6-2 Sox win. It was, he claimed his first start in 10 years and his first professional complete game (I've since learned he started games in 2002-2004 but hasn't been a starter since 1998 and it was his fourth complete game, having thrown three for Clinton in 1997), and the first complete game at Security Service Field since 2003. Offensively the Sox were led by former prospect Jayson Nix who went 2-for-4 and hit a grand slam off Beaver's starter Tim Stauffer, his fifth homer having hit one the night before, in the sixth inning. In addition Clint Barmes collected 4 hits in 5 trips including a bunt single and his usual collection of dink hits over the infield. Barmes is hitting .331 and was selected to the PCL All-Star squad but don't look for him in Denver anytime soon. Oh, in first two trips to the plate he was thrown out attempting to steal second after getting hits.