The Hot Stove at Altitude

The Rocky Mountain Chapter of SABR held its annual “Hot Stove” meeting on January 26^th at Jackson’s All-American Grill located across the street from Coors Field in Denver. Being the Secretary of the chapter, yours truly took some notes and what follows is the synopsis.

President Paul Parker called the meeting to order a little past 10AM and after a few brief remarks introduced trivia-master Dave Wallack. Dave lead-off the festivities by distributing a quiz loaded with Rockies and other trivia to the 32 assembled members and guests. After 10 minutes of contemplation and confused looks the quizzes were scored with the top three finishers receiving their choice of copies of Baseball Between The Numbers or a wall poster of vintage baseball cards from the 1920s. It happened that three members tied for second place and so what turned out to be a not-so-fast “lightening round” moderated by Parker and Wallack (whose questions were a little tough to say the least) was held to determine the two who would take home the remaining door prizes.

Parker then continued the meeting by reminding members of the upcoming Denver Bears/New York Yankees Reunion fundraiser event now scheduled for May 3^rd at the Denver Athletic Club. As of now the event will feature Ralph Terry, Johnny Blanchard, Ryne Duran, and Woody Held and consist of research presentations, a panel discussion, and autograph session. Later in the meeting member Matt Repplinger discussed the availability of Rockies/Dodgers tickets for that evening’s game, which will be sold at the event with a part of the proceeds benefiting the chapter. The face value of the ticket will be $38 for an Outfield Box seat down the right field line in section 116. The chapter will be selling the $38 ticket for $28, ten dollars off the face value. The group’s planned summer trips to Albuquerque, Colorado Springs, and Casper, Wyoming were also discussed.

The meeting then continued with a research presentation by myself and Neal Williams where we presented our article “The Traffic Directors”, which will appear in the upcoming volume 36 of The Baseball Research Journal. The study focused on the attempt to quantify the contributions of third base coaches and to determine if there is a detectable skill component that can be measured. We used a subset of the base running metrics I developed for Baseball Prospectus but are augmented with the additional context of the personnel the coach had to work with. You can read the details in the BRJ or the two-part version online, but we conclude that if there is a skill component (or rather a skill difference between coaches if you prefer), it is too subtle to measure given the combination of play by play data and other influences. Attendees engaged in a short question and answer period before taking a brief break.

After the break Parker introduced the keynote speaker, Jeff Bridich, the Rockies Director of Baseball Operations. After giving a brief rundown of his career in baseball and his opportunity to join the Rockies in 2004 as the Director of Minor League Operations, Jeff began by asking the crowd how they would grade the Rockies off-season moves thus far which included the signings of Matt Holliday, Willy Taveras, and the record-breaking contract of Troy Tulowitzki. With that opening the attendees grabbed the bull by the horns and peppered Bridich with questions ranging from the arbitration cases of Brian Fuentes, Brad Hawpe, and Garrett Atkins to this spring’s competition at second base involving Jayson Nix and Marcus Giles among others, to the health of pitcher Jason Hirsch and the prospects of catcher Chris Iannetta. As you might imagine, much time was spent dissecting the options at second base for the upcoming season and Bridich provided some interesting background on the development of Nix as he went from an offensive prospect after being drafted in 2001 to the player most likely to hurt the team defensively at second. He also indicated that the loss of Carney Lansford as a minor league hitting coach was a big blow to their organization.

Being closely involved with the arbitration process, Bridich was able to provide excellent insight into the dynamics of the interaction between the two sides and with the three-member panel in what he characterized as often “not a friendly exchange of information”. Further, he discussed approaches to preparing arbitration cases from the club perspective including their use of some advanced metrics such as Zone Rating for measuring defense. Interestingly, he indicated that while the use of advanced metrics was certainly a part of their strategy, those metrics needed to be published and proven in the industry to the extent that they can show the panel that the metrics have some legs.

I found particularly interesting his comments on the baserunning of Willy Taveras where he noted that the Rockies are encouraging Taveras to be more liberal in his stolen base attempts, especially of third. Bridich related that when asked how many times he could have stolen third in 2007, Taveras indicated that he could have swiped third 30 or so times. While that's certainly an optimistic assessment even for a competitve player, it's certainly true that Taveras seems to have a fear of stealing third. Overall, in my baserunning framework I have him for 138 events at second base and just 3 at third over the course of his career and one of those three was actually a pickoff at second base and one came as his only stolen base attempt of 2004 (perhaps that's what instilled the fear?). Now if they could just teach him to bunt towards first base...

If Bridich had prepared remarks, the steady stream of questions from the attendees and his thoughtful and articulate answers prevented him from getting to them. After over an hour of discussion many in the group, including Bridich, enjoyed lunch at the restaurant while the discussion continued.

Thanks to all members and guests who participated in this stimulating morning of baseball discussion.

Rocky Mountain SABR 2008 Hot Stove Meeting

For anyone in the Denver and surrounding area you'll be interested to learn that the next meeting of the Rocky Mountain chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research will be held Saturday January 26, 2008. The public is welcome and if you want to know what to expect you can take a look at last year's minutes.

We'll kick off at 10:00 AM at Jackson's All-American Grill directly across the street from Coors Field at 20th and Blake in downtown Denver.


Our featured speaker will be Jeff Bridich, the Rockies' Director of Baseball Operations. Jeff is Harvard alumnus and was a catcher and outfielder on the Harvard baseball team serving as a tri-captain in his 2000 senior year. He formerly worked in the Office of the Commissioner for Major League Baseball where he worked closely with teams facilitating, reviewing and approving minor league contracts and transactions. Jeff became the Rockies Director of Minor League Operations in 2004 before being promoted to his current position in October of 2005.

In addition RMSABR member Dave Wallack will lead-off with some trivia and members Dan Fox and Neal Williams will present their article on third base coaches titled "The Traffic Directors" that will appear in the next edition of SABR's Baseball Research Journal due to be published this month.

Please join us for what will certainly be a stimulating morning of baseball discussion.

Running and Tulo

Just a head's up for those interested that I posted responses to a few reader questions on BP's Unfiltered blog in response to last week's Schrodinger's Bat column.

Also just read the six-year deal with a club option for 2014 that Troy Tulowitzki signed with the Rockies. At $30M the deal seems like a good one for the Rockies, especially the club option that would take him through his age 28 season and buy out his second year of free agency. Certainly investing in any young player involves risk (and perhaps more so for hitters in Colorado) but in Tulowitzki the upside for the club is substantial because of his contributions on both sides of the ball. As for his fielding I had him at +18.6 runs using my Simple Fielding Runs (SFR) system, ranking second behind only Omar Vizquel.

SFR in the Infield - NL West

A few days ago I posted the SFR numbers for the infielders in the NL Central and so today it's time to do the NL West. You'll notice that our previous overall leader, Omar Vizquel, loses a few run with the new refinements and is now at about +24 and falls to second place behind Mark Ellis at +27 runs. Ryan Braun and Dan Uggla are still at the bottom at -25 runs while Rickie Weeks (-21) and Derek Jeter (-21) are not far behind.

Name                   Team      POS      Balls ExRunnerRunners     SFR
Livan Hernandez        ARI        1          38       4       0     3.0
Doug Davis             ARI        1          34       3       2     1.0
Micah Owings           ARI        1          26       2       4    -1.2
Brandon Webb           ARI        1          62       6       9    -2.2
Edgar G Gonzalez       ARI        1          15       1       4    -2.2
Miguel Montero         ARI        2          19       1       0     1.0
Chris Snyder           ARI        2          28       3       2     0.8
Tony Clark             ARI        3         110      17      12     3.5
Chad Tracy             ARI        3          23       4       3     1.2
Conor Jackson          ARI        3         204      30      29     0.3
Orlando Hudson         ARI        4         573     141     138     2.7
Alberto Callaspo       ARI        4          18       6       4     1.1
Augie Ojeda            ARI        4          97      26      25     0.1
Emilio Bonifacio       ARI        4          19       5       6    -0.9
Chad Tracy             ARI        5         119      24      22     1.6
Mark Reynolds          ARI        5         249      54      52     1.5
Jeff Cirillo           ARI        5          18       4       2     1.2
Alberto Callaspo       ARI        5          37       7       6     0.8
Alberto Callaspo       ARI        6          36      10       6     2.5
Augie Ojeda            ARI        6          41      11      14    -1.6
Stephen Drew           ARI        6         612     170     178    -6.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Francis           COL        1          30       3       0     2.0
Aaron Cook             COL        1          41       4       3     0.7
Josh Fogg              COL        1          22       2       1     0.6
Rodrigo Lopez          COL        1          16       2       1     0.5
Ubaldo Jimenez         COL        1          17       2       2    -0.2
Chris Iannetta         COL        2          20       1       0     0.8
Yorvit Torrealba       COL        2          59       5       5    -0.2
Todd Helton            COL        3         346      50      40     8.1
Jeff Baker             COL        3          22       3       4    -0.1
Kazuo Matsui           COL        4         420     105      85    14.2
Jamey Carroll          COL        4         212      55      47     5.9
Omar Quintanilla       COL        4          71      17      17     0.5
Ian Stewart            COL        5          20       4       0     3.0
Jamey Carroll          COL        5          20       5       5    -0.2
Garrett Atkins         COL        5         402      89      96    -5.4
Troy Tulowitzki        COL        6         814     222     199    18.6
Jamey Carroll          COL        6          32       9       7     0.7
Clint Barmes           COL        6          19       5       5    -0.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mark Hendrickson       LAN        1          23       3       1     1.5
Brad Penny             LAN        1          26       3       1     1.2
Joe Beimel             LAN        1          19       3       1     1.2
Chad Billingsley       LAN        1          18       2       1     0.8
Derek Lowe             LAN        1          29       3       2     0.6
Randy Wolf             LAN        1          17       2       3    -0.6
Russell Martin         LAN        2          63       5       3     1.4
Nomar Garciaparra      LAN        3         131      21      24    -2.3
James Loney            LAN        3         203      29      33    -3.5
Tony Abreu             LAN        4          60      16      14     1.4
Wilson Valdez          LAN        4          38       9       9    -0.2
Ramon Martinez         LAN        4          71      17      21    -2.7
Jeff Kent              LAN        4         487     124     132    -6.4
Ramon Martinez         LAN        5          40      10       5     3.4
Andy LaRoche           LAN        5          81      17      16     0.5
Nomar Garciaparra      LAN        5         110      23      23     0.1
Tony Abreu             LAN        5          82      19      19    -0.5
Wilson Betemit         LAN        5         106      23      27    -2.8
Shea Hillenbrand       LAN        5          58      13      17    -3.5
Rafael Furcal          LAN        6         642     173     165     7.6
Wilson Valdez          LAN        6          29       9       4     3.5
Tony Abreu             LAN        6          25       7       4     1.8
Chin-lung Hu           LAN        6          34      10      13    -1.4
Ramon Martinez         LAN        6          28       8      13    -3.9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jake Peavy             SDN        1          31       3       1     1.2
Doug Brocail           SDN        1          17       2       0     1.2
Justin Germano         SDN        1          22       2       1     0.6
Heath Bell             SDN        1          17       2       1     0.5
Justin Hampson         SDN        1          15       1       1     0.3
David Wells            SDN        1          21       3       3    -0.1
Greg Maddux            SDN        1          60       6       7    -0.8
Cla Meredith           SDN        1          21       2       4    -1.6
Josh Bard              SDN        2          41       2       3    -0.7
Adrian Gonzalez        SDN        3         364      57      54     2.6
Marcus Giles           SDN        4         473     119     107     8.7
Geoff Blum             SDN        4         224      57      46     8.6
Oscar Robles           SDN        4          18       5       6    -0.1
Morgan Ensberg         SDN        5          35       8       4     3.1
Russell Branyan        SDN        5          56      12      10     1.8
Kevin Kouzmanoff       SDN        5         360      77      80    -2.5
Khalil Greene          SDN        6         662     182     158    17.9
Geoff Blum             SDN        6          43      12      11    -0.2
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Matt Cain              SFN        1          28       3       3     0.0
Barry Zito             SFN        1          25       2       4    -1.3
Matt Morris            SFN        1          17       2       4    -1.5
Noah Lowry             SFN        1          29       3       6    -2.0
Bengie Molina          SFN        2          46       3       2     0.5
Rich Aurilia           SFN        3          78      10       8     1.8
Dan Ortmeier           SFN        3          46       7       5     1.5
Mark Sweeney           SFN        3          16       2       3    -0.5
Ryan Klesko            SFN        3         220      30      30    -0.5
Rich Aurilia           SFN        4          21       6       5     0.1
Kevin Frandsen         SFN        4         155      40      44    -2.5
Ray Durham             SFN        4         432     105     111    -4.3
Pedro Feliz            SFN        5         449      96      74    16.9
Rich Aurilia           SFN        5          59      12      11     1.1
Kevin Frandsen         SFN        5          17       5       5    -0.7
Omar Vizquel           SFN        6         643     176     137    24.8
Rich Aurilia           SFN        6          49      14      13     1.0
Kevin Frandsen         SFN        6          71      18      23    -2.4

Team SFR Totals 2007

In the Schrodinger's Bat column titled "Defense and Alphabet Soup" I discussed how the SFR system was developed. Last night I plugged a couple of holes by including the context for batter handedness and taking into consideration the impact of bunts. In doing so I re-ran the numbers for 2007 and so I thought it would be interesting to look at the totals by team. Keep in mind this is for infielders only. In the table below Balls are the total number of balls assigned to all infielders for that team. There is overlap here since the virtual areas of responsibility for shortstop, say, and thirdbaseman both take into consideration ground balls that reach left field. ExRunners are the expected number of runners to reach base. Diff is the difference between the expected number and the actual number (so for Colorado 1988 runners were expected to reach based but only 1895 did). 2B are the number of two base hits the team either saved (a positive number) or gave up (a negative number) and 1B are the number of singles in a similar fashion.

Team              SFR      Balls  ExRunners  Diff      2B      1B
COL                72       4092     1988      93       9      84
SDN                72       3795     1798      91      10      80
TOR                65       3885     1845      84       8      76
SFN                54       3754     1797      69       9      60
BOS                54       3537     1678      69       9      60
OAK                44       3876     1880      57       5      52
SLN                37       4008     1946      47       6      41
MIN                34       3650     1733      43       8      35
CHN                28       3514     1659      35       5      30
ATL                24       3677     1709      32       4      28
NYN                21       3633     1728      27       2      25
PHI                20       3860     1855      25       3      23
ARI                16       3724     1817      20       3      18
NYA                15       3806     1861      19       5      14
ANA                5        3608     1770       7       0       7
BAL                4        3762     1822       6       0       6
KCA                -3       3823     1927      -3      -3      -1
TEX                -9       3979     1955      -9      -4      -5
WAS               -12       3850     1852     -15      -2     -14
PIT               -14       4004     1939     -19       0     -18
CLE               -17       3971     1895     -22      -2     -20
DET               -18       3848     1837     -23      -2     -21
LAN               -18       3807     1814     -23      -4     -18
CHA               -23       3951     1904     -30       0     -30
HOU               -24       3904     1844     -30      -5     -25
SEA               -38       3962     1901     -48      -6     -42
CIN               -56       3910     1918     -72      -7     -66
MIL               -63       3750     1819     -80     -10     -70
TBA               -72       3768     1867     -93     -10     -83
FLO               -109      3924     1914    -140     -17    -124

Florida winds up on the bottom by virtue of their primary defenders at all four primary doing extremely poorly.

Name              POS   Team        Balls     SFR
Aaron Boone        3    FLO           178      -6
Mike Jacobs        3    FLO           411     -14
Miguel Cabrera     5    FLO           735     -16
Hanley Ramirez     6    FLO          1046     -25
Dan Uggla          4    FLO           981     -37

It was a similar story for the Brewers...

Name              POS   Team        Balls     SFR
J.J. Hardy         6    MIL           973     -11
Prince Fielder     3    MIL           581     -13
Rickie Weeks       4    MIL           680     -24
Ryan Braun         5    MIL           520     -40

While Tampa Bay spread the love...

Name              POS   Team        Balls     SFR
Josh Wilson        4    TBA           157      -4
Akinori Iwamura    5    TBA           553      -4
Brendan Harris     4    TBA           257      -4
Ty Wigginton       3    TBA            61      -6
Ty Wigginton       4    TBA           235      -7
Ben Zobrist        6    TBA           175      -8
Josh Wilson        6    TBA           301     -13
Brendan Harris     6    TBA           580     -21

The Rockies did well in three of the four positions and claimed the top spot...

Name              POS   Team        Balls     SFR
Kazuo Matsui       4    COL           615      28
Troy Tulowitzki    6    COL          1180      25
Todd Helton        3    COL           609      13
Ian Stewart        5    COL            29       5
Jamey Carroll      4    COL           331       3
Garrett Atkins     5    COL           678     -12

Was Tulo Robbed?

This was a piece that I published on the Rocky Moutain SABR website.

---

I know most Rockies fans were hopeful that Troy Tulowitzki would lay claim to the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Well, the award was given out last Monday and in what was the closest race in the NL since the current system was put in place in 1980, Milwaukee's Ryan Braun edged Tulo 128 to 126 in the voting. Braun received 17 first place votes to Tulowitzki's 15.

While it's hard to fault voters for choosing Braun given the monstrous offensive season he had - breaking the rookie record for slugging percentage held by Mark McGwire and hitting 34 homeruns in two-thirds of a season - one gets the impression that the voters may have underappreciated the difference between the two players on the defensive side of the ball. Be that as it may we shouldn't be too hard on them, however, since historically defense has defied meaningful analysis and looking at things like error totals (Braun made 26 while Tulowitzki made 11) don't really give a good feel for the more important aspects of defense such as range.

But we're here to correct that.

Below you'll find a table that compares the two players in terms of their raw numbers using two of the advanced performance measures we track at Baseball Prospectus.

          Actual 
          Offense             Defense 
Name         Outs    BRAR     POS    AdjG    FRAR   Total 
Tulowitzki    445      30     SS    152.3      46      76 
Braun         315      50     3B    106.1     -15      35 
                                       Difference      41

BRAR stands for Batting Runs Above Replacement and is the number of runs the player contributed above and beyond what a replacement level offensive player (think of a pretty weak bench player and you'll have the idea) would contribute if allowed to make the same number of outs. We use outs instead of plate appearances or at bats since ultimately baseball is predicated on the idea of avoiding outs if you're on offense and finding a way to get outs on defense. BRAR includes basic baserunning and is adjusted for things like the league and home park context. The latter is of course key in the case of Tulowitzki since he plays at Coors Field which, even in the humidor era, is a ballpark with a marked hitter's advantage. FRAR stands for Fielding Runs Above Replacement and is the number of runs the player saved on defense over a replacement level player (a relatively poor fielder) at his position. Outs is obviously the number of outs each player consumed offensivley and AdjG is the number of 9-inning game equivalents the player played at his position.

So from the table we can divine that while Braun contributed twenty more runs offensively while consuming 130 fewer outs, Tulowitzki amazingly was responsible for saving 61 more runs on defense. Put together Tulowitkzi contributed 76 runs to Braun's 35, a differene of 41 runs and equivalent to about 4 wins (10 additional runs for a team in the big scheme of things is roughly equivalent to a win). Can that be right? Such a large number makes one immediately suspicous and so let's take a look at an alternate metric.

John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions has created a Plus/Minus system that tracks each ball hit to any fielder and determines in the aggregate how many balls plus or minus the fielder was able to handle as compared to an average fielder at his position. In Dewan's system Braun came up with a total of -41 and Tulo was at +35. In other words, Braun didn't handle 41 balls that an average third baseman would have while Tulowitzki made 35 more plays than would have been expected. Not incidentally, Braun's rating was the lowest of any position player and Tulowitkzi's was the highest among shortstops as he was crowned the best fielding shortstop in baseball by Dewan in the 2008 Bill James Handbook.

We can convert Dewan's plus/minus values to runs by assuming that each ball not fielded became a single (an assumption that is kind to Braun since he plays third base where some of the balls he failed to field undoubtedly became doubles and not singles) and knowing how much a single and an out are worth in terms of runs. Luckily, there are a series of run estimatation formulas known collectively as "Linear Weights". In that system each single is given a "weight" equivalent to 0.47 runs and each batting out -0.25 runs. So given these values it turns out that a would-be out that turns into a hit costs a team roughly 0.70 runs. If we then take the difference between Braun and Tulowitzki, 76 plays, and multiply by 0.70 we get 53.2 runs. Both systems are saying essentially the same thing - Tulowitzki was worth somewhere between 50 and 60 runs more defensively in 2007.

But of course Braun didn't play an entire season and so could it be the case that if we gave him a full season his offensive dominance would wipe out the difference?

To answer that question below is a table that pro-rates both player's offensive and defensive statistics to the same number of outs consumed on offense and adjusted games on defense.

          Pro-Rated 
          Offense             Defense 
Name         Outs    BRAR     POS    AdjG    FRAR   Total 
Tulowitzki    450      30     SS      162      49      79 
Braun         450      71     3B      162     -23      49 
                                       Difference      30

If both players had consumed 450 outs Braun would have produced 71 more runs than a replacement player while Tulowitzki would still have been at 30. Those 41 additional runs are not inconsequential. However, had Braun played 162 games on defense he would have given up 23 more runs than a replacement level fielder while Tulo would have saved 49 runs. When you add it all up the gap between the two players shrinks to 30 runs or the equivalent of three wins. As my colleague Joe Sheehan noted, Tulowitzki was robbed, perhaps not by much - but in the end he was the more deserving.

But Rockies fans shouldn't feel too bad. Look what happens when you add the name Hunter Pence to the list and use the same rationale as discussed above.

          Actual 
          Offense             Defense 
Name         Outs    BRAR     POS    AdjG    FRAR   Total 
Tulowitzki    445      30     SS    152.3      46      76 
Braun         315      50     3B    106.1     -15      35 
Pence         315      36     CF     93.5      20      56 

          Pro-Rated 
          Offense             Defense 
Name         Outs    BRAR     POS    AdjG    FRAR   Total 
Tulowitzki    450      30     SS      162      49      79 
Braun         450      71     3B      162     -23      49 
Pence         450      51     CF      162      35      86

The Astros' Pence comes out on top just barely by virtue of a solid season both offensively and defensively. Still, there is value in playing time and that, in my estimation anyway, should push Tulowitzki back over the top.

Relentlessness

Another fine quote I ran into today...

One of the trademarks of Omar Minaya’s three seasons as the Mets general manager has been his relentlessness in the free-agent market. He isolates an area of need, locks onto a player and does not move on until a deal is completed.

With Jorge Posada never truly an option, Minaya identified Yorvit Torrealba as his catcher of choice. After some fast-moving negotiations, the Mets are on the verge of signing him to a three-year, $14.4 million contract.

Everything is going along nicely until we run smack into the words "Yorvit Torrealba" in a sentence in which they seemingly don't belong. The author does go onto point out that Torrealba's road numbers (.212/.292/.326) indicate that the Mets "probably" plan to bat him eighth. Probably? Did we really think he was going to hit second or third?

Prescient?

Not really. It didn't take a genius to see this coming.

Torrealba and Dice-K

Everyday I take a look at BallBug.com and peruse the top baseball stories published on the web. Over the past couple of weeks I've been amused by the numbers of stories, like this one, that focus on Yorvit Torrealba. In this particular case the news is that Torrealba won't sign early with the Rockies before their exclusive negotiating rights run out and will instead take his chances on the open market with teams like the Mets and Marlins.

As far as the Rockies are concerned, not negotiating a deal right now is certainly the smart move. Torrealba's exposure in the post season seems to have driven the market for him well above what he's actually worth. In the end he is still a backup catcher who hit .255/.323/.376 with an EqA of .236. He actually performed better offensively in 2006 because he hit with more power and his bum right shoulder is a liability in an area (throwing out runners) where you typically want your backup to be better than league average. As a backup catcher he is barely adequate and backup catchers are essentially freely available and can be plucked out of the backup catcher Oort cloud at will. Somebody is going to overpay.

Also saw this nice recap of Daisuke Matsuzaka's season. For the record my prediction of Dice-K's season was 17-12, 4.22 ERA, 179 K against an actual of 15-12, 4.40, 201 K. Not too bad considering it was pretty much a stab in the dark. I did take into consideration adjusting to a five-man rotation and thought he might wear down making my prediction one of the worst ones. One thing I was surprised at was given his large repertoire, how frequently he used his fastball.

Update: Oops, forgot to mention this insider blog post by Peter Gammons (hat tip to The Book blog) where Gammons says:

Want to know about winners? Pedroia gave up his scholarship at Arizona State to free up money to sign a much-needed pitcher, so when the Sun Devils reached the College World Series, coaches and players had "DP" on their caps in honor of their leader who never got to Omaha. The sabermetrics guys in their garages never understand these things.

I'm less upset by this than simply confused. The column starts off talking about A-Rod and his announcement during game three of the World Series and then quickly transitions to this non-sequiter. Why? What's the point? Who cares? Perhaps there is a private joke in there somewhere but I've missed it.

The Banquet Season

Well, the banquet season has begun and although it is the only banquet I ever attend my wife and I had a great time at the 10th annual banquet of the Rocky Mountain chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research. I'll be serving as the secretary starting in 2008 and wrote a little summary of the events. This year the event was held at the Coors Clubhouse inside Coors Field, a perfect venue especially after this very entertaining season. Suffice it to say a good time was had by all.

An "External Malicious Attack"?

I thought this was an interesting followup to the Rockies ticket fiasco. In particular...

Major League Baseball officials have acknowledged that the Rockies were referring to brokers with ticket-grabbing automated software, not hackers, when they called the attack malicious.

Oh, I see.

You're only as vulnerable as your system design allows...

Game Three Notes

I worked the game last night for MLB.com which was certainly an experience in and of itself and too strange to relate here. So instead here are a couple thoughts on the game itself...

Here we go again. Right off the bat it seemed that the Rockies were in for a long night when Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia got hits on balls that weren't well-struck to say the least. Josh Fogg was fortunate to get out of the jam after striking out David Ortiz and going to 2-0 on both Manny Ramirez and Mike Lowell.

Poor Decision. The top of the third was fraught with poor decision making it seemed. After Ellsbury doubled Pedroia put down a bunt that for some reason Fogg decided to let Yorvit Torrealba field. Having to come so far towards the mound Torrealba had no chance to get Pedroia at first. Clint Hurdle then went too long with Fogg and allowed him to pitch to Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek before unintentionally-intentionally walking Julio Lugo. It was clear at this point that Fogg simply didn't have it and would have to be taken out shortly regardless. Given that the season was hanging in the balance I would have expected a strikeout pitcher to be up in the pen.

At the time the only thought I could conjure up as to why he would still be in the game is that his spot was coming up first in the bottom of the third. Even so, with Cory Sullivan in centerfield and two potential centerfielders on the bench, Hurdle could have and should have opted to double switch then and there (something he ended up doing the next time around the order with Ryan Spilborghs). But after the Daisuke Matsuzaka single he was pulled for Franklin Morales anyway who retired Pedroia for the final out. What was perplexing was that, now down 6-0, Morales was allowed to lead off the bottom of the third. Although he's a good hitting pitcher and he pitched well in his 2.3 innings of work the game situation dictated that no outs from this point forward could afford to be wasted.

Formualic. When Matt Herges came in to the game in the seventh he disposed of the Sox hittrs on three strikeouts and 13 pitches inducing four swinging strikes. Despite his success and that with the game now at 6-5 and the prospect of extra innings, Hurdle opted to follow his formula to the letter and bring Brian Fuentes into the game. That it didn't work out doesn't really matter, at the time it seemed like a questionable move.

Good Umpiring. Both contentious calls last night (Ramirez getting called out at the plate and Varitek thrown out at first by Troy Tulowitzki) were called correctly by the umpires.

Bad Luck. Although the Red Sox are the stronger team and would win perhaps around 70% of the series against the Rockies if one could play it over and over again, once again the Rockies got a taste of what the Phillies and DBacks experienced in the previous two series. Three defensive plays, one by Cory Sullivan on a sinking liner to his right, one by Troy Tulowitzki on a Coco Crisp liner up the middle, and the other by Brad Hawpe on a ball down the right field line, were an eyelash from being caught. Meanwhile, pinch hitters Jeff Baker and Willy Taveras both hit line drives that were caught by Sox infielders.

Game Two Notes

Just a few notes from Game Two..

During the pre-game show Eric Byrnes, Kevin Kennedy, and Eric Karros all pile on to the "rust and too much rest excuse". Gee, how predictable was that? At least Kennedy noted that it was difficult to tell given that Josh Beckett was so overpowering.

Nice stat on Willy Taveras bunting only 17 of 176 times towards the first base line in his career. I've written about Taveras' bunting ability this season on several occasions and have certainly noticed that he has a decided preference for using the third base line. He needs to work on bunting down the first base line as well in order to bring the first baseman in and take advantage of lesser fielders like Kevin Youkilis and obviously David Ortiz in game 3 when needed.

I thought the second inning discussion of Ubaldo Jimenez using his curveball at altitude versus 20 feet above sea level at Boston was interesting. I wrote on this topic a few weeks ago and showed that Coors Field was at the bottom in movement on fastballs and third from the bottom in curves. For fastballs I found that at Coors they drop more--roughly two inches - presumably because the backspin on the fastball doesn't counteract gravity as well in air that is less dense. They also don't tail as much by about 2.3 inches. Curveballs seem to have roughly the same movement vertically but break 1.6 inches less horizontally than curves thrown on the road. In order to make this calculation I compared pitchers who threw fastballs and curves both at Coors Field and on the road and so Jimenez was included in the analysis. For Jimenez I had 103 pitches at Coors Field with an average pFX (the hypotenuse of the triangle defined by the vertical and horizontal movement and thus incorporating movement in both vectors) of 9.92 inches and 61 pitches on the road with a pFX of 8.05 inches. So perhaps this is just small sample size or measurement problems or park differences in the road parks but I didn't see any negative difference at Coors for Jimenez.

Early on Jimenez was being aggressive in the strike zone as you can do when you have his stuff. I loved the microphone on Bob Apodaca as he reiterated that Jimenez needed to stay aggressive. That's a great use of that technology.

The strikeouts of Ryan Spilborghs in the fifth inning and seventh innings and Willy Taveras in the ninth were all on pitches that were clearly inside. The first was almost three inches inside, the second about two and half, and the third an inch. That said, that pitch was being called a strike pretty consistently by Laz Diaz and in fact there were 15 called strikes that were technically balls on that side of the plate. There's no excuse for the Rockies hitters in not recognizing how the zone was being called and adjusting. Elevne of the fifteen called strikes were on Rockies hitters.

Gotta love this quote. Tim McCarver on David Ortiz . . . "one of the great clutch hitters of his era". Well, if by era you mean 2005 and 2006 then he has a point.

By the end of the third inning "Jimenez looked like he started to overthrow and his release point became inconsistent". And "Jimenez seemed to lose his mechanics after 60 or 70 pitches and was fortunate to get out with only two runs". I jotted both notes down during the third and fourth inning unaware that Will Carroll had posted something similar on BP Unfiltered. This morning I went back and checked and the result is the following plot of his release point in innings one through three and four and five (The perspective is from the catcher with a negative horizontal component indicating a release towards third base. These are also reflected of the ball at 50 feet from the plate and are therefore not "true" release points).



As you can see it is more varied (red) in the fourth and fifth and the standard deviation in both the horizontal and vertical components is about three quarters of an inch higher.

Another great quote. Joe Buck on Garrett Atkins while talking with Clint Hurdle: "Atkins looks like he can cover a ton of ground over at third base". Looks can be deceiving and neither the fans (-20 in Tango's fan scouting report) or the numbers (-17 in BP's FRAR) back up that assessment. The single by Manny Ramirez in the fifth inning past a diving Atkins was more typical of what you see when you watch him over and over. The fact is that he is not a good third baseman.

Matt Holliday makes the single biggest boneheaded baserunning play I've seen this season. End of story. Yes, Jonathan Papelbon had not picked off anyone in his big league career but you get the feeling that he could have stepped off the rubber, dropped the ball, fetched it, and tossed it underhand to Youkilis and Holliday still would have been out.

Game One and BIPChart

This week in my column I provide an updated version of the Balls In Play Chart software that includes 2007 data as well as a couple of new features showing batting average on balls in play and a grid view. In total the application contains data from 2003 through 2007 for both hitters and pitchers. You'll need the .NET Framework 2.0 runtime in order to run the software. Any suggestions for improvements would be welcome of course. The column also includes a discussion of home plate umpiring in the postseason and how it compares to the regular season using PITCHf/x data and a pretty graphic on the actual size of the strike zone.

Well, Game One was less than exciting as the Sox jumped all over the Rockies and Jeff Francis. To me, Francis looked like he did back in 2005 when he allowed a .376/.414/.518 line in the first inning. He seemed to have solved that problem somewhat in 2006 and his numbers weren't as bad in 2007 but last night he wasn't able to locate the fastball which forced him to throw more fastballs down in the count which of course led to hard hit balls all over the place. More than most pitchers the first inning is the key to his success.

Predictably the story lines out of much of the mainstream media are about the layoff and rustiness as well as the difference between the two leagues in terms of quality. I doubt that either played much of a role in last night's outcome as Josh Beckett was simply overpowering for much of the evening and Rockies pitchers couldn't find the strike zone. There's also lots of talk about Terry Francona's decision to leave Beckett in the game in the sixth and seventh innings although the game was sewed up. Although statheads like to talk about bringing back pitchers on short rest in situations like these I don't think you do that with Beckett. Rather, he should have been removed from the game because of the small but real risk of injury on a line drive, covering first, fielding a bunt or squibber on the wet surface, or even hurting his pitching arm. There's simply no defensible reason for leaving him in the game under those circumstances.

I like the matchup tonight for the Rockies with Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound. He can get by at times with less than great command because of the movement on his pitches and if he has both working, the Sox could be in for a long evening. Curt Schilling has to be the finer of the two and so could be hit around some.

Incidentally, both Eric Karros and Ken Rosenthal were less than stellar as Karros talked about the Rockies only taking batting practice for eight days and not mentioning the intrasquad games they played while Rosenthal had the Rockies playing the Cubs in the NLDS rather than the Phillies. Hopefully, they'll be a little better prepared tonight.

You Gotta Have Faith

Just a couple thoughts before Game One tonight in Boston.

First, I thought this was an interesting article on the Rockies, faith, and how they've put their team together. It's funny how when you're winning things like this are spun in a neutral to positive fashion and when you're losing they're seen as part of the problem.

Like many folks in the area I too have a Rockies-ticket-buying-horror-story to tell. On Monday morning I was of course shut out as were all but 500 others. On Tuesday I had three computers running and twice was taken to the page allowing (supposedly) ticket purchases. After selecting four best available (section 121 row 26 for Game Four), getting the seats, entering the credit card, and verifying it, I was at, presumably, the final screen. After clicking the button it spun and spun for about three minutes and when it finally returned it said my reservation had timed out. On the three or four previous screens I had spent probably a total of 20 seconds in data entry and so the timeout consisted entirely of the response time from their servers. On the same machine I was able to access the transaction a couple seconds later (since they used a cookie per machine approach) but that browser could not access the cart information and the session died. I was hoping that perhaps the order went through and I'd receive a confirmation email but to no avail...

I think it's pretty clear that the company that runs the system simply wasn't prepared for the load and then tried to shift blame by claiming a malicious denial of service attack. Their tentativeness in saying that they could have been a target of such an attack smells funny and the fact that all they apparently changed was upping the wait time from 60 to 120 seconds indicates that they were trying to lighten the load. I hope the Rockies and MLB aren't buying the excuses. It's also clear that after looking at the HTML code they used to put up a timer, a program could easily have been written (and I'm sure was by ticket brokers as evidenced by the thousands upon thousands of tickets that now grace StubHub and EBay) to "force your way in line" and therefore have a better chance of acquiring seats.

It's too bad that local fans didn't have much of a shot at acquiring seats. Although the Rockies rightly claim that internet sales are the most equitable way to sell tickets (assuming you have the technology) there are other considerations to be made as well.

NLCS Game Three

Last night I worked the NLCS game three matchup at Coors Field for MLB.com as a stringer for Gameday. While I was certainly glad that I didn't have to endure the 40 degree and drizzly weather, I was unprepared for the crush of media in the usually uncrowded and spacious press box at Coors Field. After finding my newly assigned seat and enjoying the pre-game press conferences I settled in and despite the unreliable wireless access we were able to get the job done.

In the end the night was not a good one for Eric Byrnes, a topic I wrote about today on BP Unfiltered. It was also a game that focused in on one plate appearance which was written about by Jenifer Langosch and which I also touch on in the Unfiltered post with the help of PITCHf/x data. For the conditions I thought the game was well played and both managers made solid moves. The only thing I second-guessed was Clint Hurdle's use of both Manny Corpas and Brian Fuentes in the eighth and ninth innings with the three run lead given that there is a game tonight. In that situation I think I would have favored bringing in LaTroy Hawkins or perhaps Ryan Speier and only going to either Fuentes or Corpas if there was trouble. But that's pretty nit-picky since if the Rockies win game three, you may purposefully sit one of the two tonight and roll the dice a little.

In any case, looking forward to the games again tonight.

Rocktober Rocks On!

I was wrong.

As September dawned more and more co-workers, acquaintances, and family members posed the question to me as to whether the Rockies would make the playoffs. Being the realistic analyst type guy I am I assured them that given the unbalanced schedule and the number of teams that the Rockies would have to jump over, that it was virtually impossible. Even as September 15th dawned I distinctly recall a co-worker cornering me in the break room and with a hopeful expression, asking whether the Rockies could still pull it off. I said something about them having to win 10 of 11 or 11 of 12 just to have a shot while knowing that wasn't going to happen and feeling good about myself for letting him down easy.

As Nate Silver has written, when the Rockies stood at 77-72 their odds of reaching the playoffs using BP's post season odds report was in fact 1.82% or 54:1. That marked the third most unlikely comeback with 20 or fewer games to play in history behind only the 1964 Cardinals (1.26% with 13 games to play) and the 1934 Cardinals (1.16% with 15 to play). He also points out that their odds were at 1.46% when their record stood at 18-27 on May 21st and was only 4.4% after their loss to the Diamondbacks on September 28th (I wrote a retrospective on the Rockies season at BP you might want to check out). In fact, Silver notes that what's so impressive about the Rockies season is that "they were never, not for one day, greater than even-money to make the playoffs until they actually did."

In accord with that simulation, from a historical perspective, through 2006 there were 988 teams that found themselves with an 18-27 record or worse at some point in the season and only 13 of those (1.3%) had reached postseason play.

So given the long odds and history I don't feel too bad about trying to be realistic but next time I'll be a little more humble.



With all that in mind I headed to Coors Field as a fan to take in only the third home playoff game in Rockies history and the first postseason game I had ever attended. I arrived early and stood in line with the faithful outside of gate A waiting for the gates to open two hours prior to game time. It had been a warm and windy day in Denver and was still over 75 degrees with warms winds from the south west as we made our way into the ballpark.


The Phillies were on the field taking batting practice and so I made my way into the left field stands to watch the mad rush for homerun balls. With the wind gusting out to left center Jayson Werth put on a show hitting several balls onto the concourse and showing the fans in straight-away left with souvenirs. The Phillies starters including Cole Hamels had fun with the fans, teasing them by pretending to throw balls into the stands before actually giving them away. In one kind of funny scene several of them started to imitate the motion of throwing a pitch left-handed and then slamming their glove on the ground and I couldn't help thinking that they were reenacting Ted Lilly's reaction in game two against the Diamondbacks after he gave up a homerun to Chris Young in the second inning. During all of this a young boy standing a few feet from me, who was sporting a glove, got hit with a ball in the head and was rewarded for his lack of attention with another ball from a Phillies pitcher before being checked out by the medical staff.


Being in the vicinity I had to snap this picture of the row of seats behind the left field fence to provide some perspective on the ball that Garrett Atkins hit in the one-game playoff that likely hit one of the chairs and bounced back onto the field. Although it happened at an inopportune time from the Rockies perspective a ricochet like that is not unheard of and I believe it was the second or third time a homerun was in question this season.


In any case, after standing in a really long line for patty melt and a Coke I headed up to my seat in the mezzanine level of the right field stands to enjoy the pregame activities which included the introductions, the releasing of balloons, and the national anthem. While in line for the Coke I was reminded of how some "fans" have little actual knowledge of the game. One of the two men behind me turned to the other and expressed surprise that the Rockies had to win just one series in order to be in "the semifinals" while the other assured him that in baseball, unlike some other sports, teams are rewarded for their regular season record.


Shortly after I took my seat three or four loud and obnoxious Phillies fans ensconced themselves directly behind me. While at first they were rooting for their team, things quickly turned ugly in the second inning and the guy sitting next to me got into an altercation with one of them resulting in a shove. Predictably the police arrived in our section shortly thereafter and escorted one of the Philly faithful away. However, the Phils fan returned an inning later and all seemed to be squared away as the guy next to me bought him a beer (not a good idea as it turned out).

In the meantime the game had started and Ubaldo Jimenez had his electric stuff. In the midst of giving up a walk and hit in the top of the first he struck out the side. The last strikeout of Aaron Rowand consisted of three sliders thrown 86.4, 86.4 and 87.1 mph as shown below.



In the top of the second, after the first pitch to Chase Utley all of the banks of stadium lights went dark. The scoreboard was still operational and so there was plenty of light to see by. All told it took 14 minutes for the "computer glitch" to be resolved and the lights to fully come back on and play to resume.

Jimenez would work six and a third innings, give up three hits and four walks. His fastest pitch of the night was recorded at 98.3 miles per hour to Ryan Howard in the first inning, a pitch Howard was jammed on but would fight off for a bloop single to right. PITCHf/x recorded 95 of his pitches, 57 fastballs averaging 94.5 mph, five changeups averaging 85 mph, 15 curveballs at 73.5 mph, and 18 sliders at 84.9 mph. His only mistake was an 82 mile per hour changeup (correction: Yorvit Torrealba says it was a slider which points out the difficulty in pitch classification on occasion using PITCHf/x) he left out and over the plate to Shane Victorino (shown below from the hitter's perspective) with one out in the top of the seventh. Victorino got ahold of it and hit it into the right field stands just below the section in which I was sitting.



The weather was also a factor as about 10 minutes before game time the wind shifted, now blowing in from left-center, with a distinct chill in the air. Although the game time temperature was reported at 73 degrees, by game time it was probably already in the mid 60s and dropping. In the bottom of the second (by then 56 degrees with the wind howling) Atkins got a hold of a Jamie Moyer curveball that was down and in and lifted a high fly to left field. Forty-five minutes earlier, or even on a typical night, that ball would have been several rows deep in the stands. As it was Pat Burrell was able to catch it on the warning track. From there the temps dropped and the wind continued to gust from 15 to 20 miles per hour through most of the first five innings or so. Later in the game the winds died down and temps stabilized.

Throughout the game the Phils fans behind me kept up their cheering but things turned uglier in the seventh. Having obviously had too much beer and prodded on by some obnoxious Rockies rooters sitting somewhere behind them throwing peanut shells, more words were exchanged complete with foul-mouthed name calling. Once again the police were summoned and this time two of the Phils fans were escorted out not to return. As if this weren't enough there was an additional flare up and the final fan (a woman no less who I would expect would be more civilized) was also escorted out. Having cleansed the section, the Rockies fans seem somewhat pleased and the remainder of the game was uneventful from that perspective.

It's a shame that the family sitting behind me with two boys aged four or five had to endure this silliness. As all of this unfolded I remembered just why it was that I stopped sitting in the outfield stands at Kauffman Stadium with my daughters in tow. It almost never fails that one or more fans ruins the experience through excess drinking. It's not politically correct but in my experience that kind of behavior is rare in the more expensive seats and it's worth it to me to pay $10 or $15 extra bucks to have a positive family experience.

This too reminded me of the only game I ever attended at old Tiger Stadium. It was in the early 1980s with the White Sox in town and my brother and father and me sat in the left field stands. The liquored-up fans in the center field bleachers had quite a time hitting beach balls, throwing food and beer, and trying to pelt White Sox centerfield Rudy Law with objects forcing him to run into the dugout and emerge with a batting helmet. After several fights the police were called and ended up arresting quite a number of people. Our family was on vacation and I recall my mother feigning concern when we returned to the hotel that we weren't some of the many being held in the clink.

Of course, the crucial moments of a game that was tense from start to finish occurred in the bottom of the eighth when with two outs Atkins singled on a line drive to left field and Brad Hawpe hit a ball between Howard and Chase Utley, which Utley knocked down, but that scooted away for a hit sending Atkins to third. Both hits were off LOOGY J.C. Romero and after a conference on the mound, surprisingly Charlie Manual chose to stick with the lefty against pinch hitter Jeff Baker when he had righty Brett Myers in the pen. Seemingly, Myers was the obvious choice given Baker's .205/.267/.289 line against right-handers as opposed to .246/.333/.426 against southpaws. But Manuel didn't make the move and with the white towels given out before the game waving madly, Baker hit a 91.5 mph fastball through the hole between first and second to deliver the biggest hit in Rockies history.

Despite Clint Hurdle using Brian Fuentes, in my opinion needlessly on Thursday afternoon, he came in and pitched a perfect eighth inning striking out Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell before Manny Corpas came on and closed the game in the ninth.


When Victorino grounded to Kaz Matsui (whose triple past Burrell on a Moyer curveball in the fifth inning plated the first run) for the final out pandemonium is the only way to describe it. Fireworks, chanting, and high-fives all around went on for quite some time with several players emerging from the clubhouse to shower the fans with champagne. After about 30 minutes I slipped out with the celebration still in full swing and headed home. A well-played game, an exciting game, and a night to remember for Rockies fans. As for me, besides being at Wrigley Field for a clinching game (alas I heard the listened to the end of the sweep completed just before game time on the radio I brought), I can't think of any better outcome for my first postseason experience.

Cubs and Rockies Play On

I've been so busy being a fan the last week I've had little time to put on my analyst hat. With the Cubs looking so strong at the beginning of last week, being swept by the Marlins, and then rebounding against the Reds to clinch the division on Friday night there's been some ups and downs to say the least. They're now getting set to take on the Diamondbacks starting Wednesday with Carlos Zambrano on the hill against Brandon Webb. And then when you add the excitement of the Rockies improbable 13-1 finish to tie the Padres and force today's one game playoff, hopefully you'll forgive the lack of content here during the season's waning days.

I worked Saturday night's game for MLB.com at Coors Field and you could feel the tension in the press box as the Padres held a 3-2 lead in the ninth inning at Milwaukee just minutes before game time. Once Tony Gwynn Jr. hit the triple to tie it, however, the tension was lifted and was completely obliterated when the Rockies jumped all over the Diamondbacks in the first inning on their way to an 11-1 win.

On the Rockies and tonight's game, Nate Silver has a nice piece on SI.com about today's game and predicts a 5-3 win for the Pads behind Jake Peavy. Although Josh Fogg has thrown pretty well in September (6 2/3 of scoreless baseball against the Dodgers on the 9/26 and a 3.25 ERA for the month) I still think I'd rather see Franklin Morales take the ball (2.88 ERA in September with 16 hits given up in 25 innings with 20 Ks against just 6 walks). In any case my hope is that Clint Hurdle is ready for the early hook and doesn't endure one of Fogg's Funks where he suddenly loses the strike zone. Although the Rockies are playing at home where they've been excellent (50-31), facing Peavy on normal rest will be a tough task to say the least. In his two previous outings against the Rockies this season at Petco he's thrown 14 innings and given up 2 runs on 8 hits. For that reason I too would have to pick the Padres if I were betting but confidence can do wonders. That confidence is based not only on the fabulous finish but also on the fact that since May 22nd the Rockies have been the best team in the National League with a 71-46 record (the Yankees went 74-45).

Taking a longer term historical view, tonight's game will mark the twelfth time (including three Wild Card races) in big league history that the season has been extended past the 154 or 162 game schedule. All but the 1915 Federal League season, in which there was no provision in place for playing a tie-breaker, resulted in a playoff. In the NL a three-game playoff was the rule beginning with the 1946 playoff between the Dodgers and Cardinals and ending with the advent of divisional play in 1969. In AL a one-game playoff decided things beginning with the 1948 race. Without further ado, here is the chronological list of the regular season playoffs that decided the affair.

1946 NL – the Cardinals beat the Dodgers 4-2 in St. Louis and 8-4 in Brooklyn getting solid pitching from Howie Pollet and Murry Dickson

1948 AL – the Indians playing at Fenway Park beat the Red Sox 8-3 behind rookie hurler Gene Bearden.

1951 NL – the Dodgers inexplicably elect to play two games on the road and wind up on the wrong side of a miracle.

1959 NL – the Dodgers, having moved west, beat Milwaukee in a pair of one-run games 3-2 and 6-5 in 12 innings.

1962 NL – the Dodgers drop 6 of their final 7 to force the playoff and then lead 4-2 in the 9th inning of game 3 before 4 walks, 2 hits, a wild pitch, and an error seal the 6-4 victory for the Giants.

1978 AL – the Yankees furious comeback culminates in a 5-4 playoff win at Fenway on the strength of homeruns by Reggie Jackson and Bucky Dent.

1980 NL West – after being tied for 6 straight days in September it was only fitting that the season should come down to one game at Dodger Stadium which the Astros win 7-1 behind Joe Niekro.

1995 AL Wild Card – Seattle comes from 7.5 games back on September 1st to force a playoff with the Angels in the Kingdome which they win 9-1 behind Randy Johnson

1998 NL Wild Card - the Giants win 6 of their final 7 while the Sosa-powered Cubs struggle and so the two face off at Wrigley Field where the Cubs win 5-3 behind Steve Trachsel

1999 NL Wild Card – the slumping Mets sweep the season’s final series against the Pirates to force a playoff with the Reds who won 19 games in September. The Mets prevail 5-0 on the strength of a two-hit shutout by Al Leiter.

Rox Use 10

Last Friday night I scored the Rockies/Padres game at Coors Field for MLB.com and was "treated" to the site of manager Clint Hurdle using ten different pitchers in a nine inning Rockies win. That effort set the National League record and tied the major league record first set by the Orioles on September 12, 2004 versus the Yankees.

Below is my score sheet for the game with the plethora of pitchers (click for a larger view)...

Jimenez Looking Good

Tonight Rockies rookie Ubaldo Jimenez turned in a good start for the third consecutive outing beating the Nationals here at Coors Field. I chronicled his arsenal over on the Rocky Mountain SABR site using PITCHf/x data.

Update: Mike Fast and Sky Kalkman point out that the data used to plot the fastball was incorrect. I inadvertantly used a positive rather than a negative vertical acceleration which caused the pitch to appear to level out. I've since corrected the graphs in the article at RMSABR. My apologies.