Around the Bases in 2007 (and 1987)

Last week in my column at Baseball Prospectus I revealed the 2007 numbers in my five baserunning metrics. Somewhat suprisingly Juan Pierre took the top spot at +11.47 runs by recording positive values in all five categories but doing especially well in runs on stolen bases (EqSBR) and advancing on hits (EqHAR). Together those accounted for over nine runs with EqSBR at +3.93 and EqHAR at +5.09. Other leaders included Luis Castillo (+9.41), Coco Crisp (+8.60), Brian Roberts (+8.43), and Jose Reyes (+7.90). Readers of the original article will note that there Castillo was credited with +8.42. However, upon further inspection his EqOAR (other advancement including wild pitches, passed balls, and balks) was incorrect dues to overcounting his opportunities because of his playing for both the Twins and Mets and so that went up from 2.78 to 3.77.

On the other end of the spectrum the Tribe's Ryan Garko recorded a -8.83, -7.25 coming on hit advancement by virtue of being thrown out five times (most in the majors) but otherwise not advancing very frequently. His poor showing in that metric easily bested the previous low set by Pat Burrell in 2005 (-5.60).

As mentioned in the article these are essentially counting statistics and so the number of opportunities does matter. For that reason I also have rate statistics for these metrics that I'll break out again in a future column. Also look for team results at that time as well.

Although I haven't run the numbers for all Retrosheet seasons, in honor of the 2007 numbers I thought I'd take a look back 20 years and run the 1987 top and bottom 20.

Name                Opps   EqGAR  Opps EqSBR  Opps   EqAAR  Opps   EqHAR  Opps   EqOAR  EqRuns
Vince Coleman         59    2.41   140  6.55    50    1.74    56    2.39   406    0.83   13.92
Willie Wilson         60    0.41    69  7.06    39    0.08    36    3.90   369    0.70   12.15
Tim Raines            31   -0.41    56  6.92    34    0.41    48    2.38   390    0.91   10.21
Tony Gwynn            52    0.26    65  1.95    40    1.35    58    3.54   458    2.34    9.44
Eric Davis            36    1.23    58  2.59    20    0.81    24    2.14   248    1.17    7.94
Lenny Dykstra         38    1.86    35  2.58    33    0.53    37    1.36   272    1.35    7.68
Ozzie Smith           50    0.82    50  2.28    53    1.61    66    2.48   522    0.18    7.37
Ozzie Guillen         43    1.77    34  0.80    27    0.60    23    2.05   299    1.99    7.20
Milt Thompson         38    1.26    57  3.11    28    0.68    37    1.28   336    0.86    7.19
Luis Polonia          29    1.44    37  1.74    34    0.17    32    2.94   319    0.86    7.15
Joe Carter            25    1.04    38  2.89    26    0.51    21    1.22   262    1.25    6.90
Phil Bradley          51   -0.28    49  2.91    43    0.60    43   -0.07   451    3.63    6.80
Billy Hatcher         35    0.25    69  2.69    41    1.04    24    2.64   355   -0.12    6.50
Gary Redus            39    0.49    64  4.15    28    0.78    35    1.35   286   -0.62    6.16
Oddibe McDowell       32    1.01    28  3.84    24    0.93    25   -0.34   224    0.37    5.81
Lou Whitaker          49   -0.44    20 -0.08    36    0.20    57    1.67   432    3.83    5.18
Steve Sax             47    0.71    49  2.33    44    0.10    44    2.15   376   -0.27    5.01
Dick Schofield        33    0.60    22  2.53    17    0.08    15    0.73   261    0.50    4.45
Ellis Burks           38    0.79    33  1.87    41   -0.01    40    1.28   345    0.27    4.20
Paul Molitor          34   -0.35    58  5.11     0    0.00     0    0.00   332   -0.63    4.13
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Terry Pendleton       35    0.60    30 -4.23    29   -0.96    38    0.65   352   -0.12   -4.06
Alvin Davis           26    0.00     1 -0.23    30   -0.81    41   -2.25   340   -0.81   -4.10
Alfredo Griffin       20   -1.05    42 -2.46    28    0.74    30   -0.42   238   -0.95   -4.14
Shane Mack            15   -0.09    11 -3.27     4   -1.00    17   -0.19   132    0.20   -4.35
Bo Diaz               34   -1.48     1  0.16    13   -0.67    32   -1.68   220   -0.75   -4.41
Eddie Murray          28   -0.46     4 -1.51    35   -1.81    25    0.06   340   -0.79   -4.51
Harold Baines         13   -0.60     0  0.00    20   -0.16    34   -3.48   285   -0.49   -4.74
Keith Moreland        21   -0.50     6 -2.15    17   -0.56    33   -0.40   238   -1.18   -4.79
A Galarraga           32   -0.70    17 -3.37    18   -0.16    29   -0.30   277   -0.28   -4.81
Casey Candaele        37    0.14    18 -4.61    35    0.71    49   -0.69   310   -0.52   -4.97
Mike Young            20   -0.60    18 -2.67    23    0.29     7   -1.24   197   -0.77   -4.99
Benito Santiago       28    0.30    34 -2.17    12   -0.11    29   -2.64   251   -0.43   -5.05
Dave Parker           24    0.18    11 -0.88    28   -0.19    37   -4.11   265   -0.07   -5.07
Mike Kingery          28   -0.90    17 -3.02    19    0.06    21   -0.54   188   -0.75   -5.16
Carlton Fisk          17   -0.47     5 -2.25    27   -0.55    37   -1.29   234   -0.79   -5.35
Joey Cora             27    0.02    26 -2.66    13   -1.51    20   -0.50   150   -0.88   -5.53
Keith Hernandez       13   -0.30     2 -1.03    29   -0.36    41   -3.89   356   -0.10   -5.67
Mike Pagliarulo       29   -0.50     5 -1.78    18   -1.35    25   -1.44   239   -0.68   -5.76
Cal Ripken            24   -0.43     8 -1.50    24   -1.64    29   -1.14   330   -1.15   -5.85
Will Clark            30   -1.23    22 -8.41    22   -0.35    42    1.81   284    0.90   -7.28

Not surprisingly Vince Coleman takes the top spot at +13.92 runs largely powered by his 109 stolen bases in 131 attempts. But he also scored well in all other categories. Both Willie Wilson and Tim Raines crack 10 plus runs with great stolen base percentages (Wilson at 59 steals in 70 attempts and Raines at 50 of 55) and their advancement on hits. Many of the others in the top 20 aren't big surprises although Lou Whitaker and Phil Bradley are both there courtesy of advancement on wild pitches, passed balls, and walks that while reflecting some skill, is more prone to small samples and luck than advancing on hits.

On the flip side Will Clark is down over seven runs despite doing decently in many of the metrics. His -8.41 in stolen base runs was the killer as he was caught stealing no less than 17 times in 22 opportunities and remarkably was caught stealing twice at home and three times at third base. Perhaps some of those were broken hit and run plays but one would think that either Clark himself or Roger Craig would have given up the strategy at some point. The others on the bottom are pretty much what you might expect as well with Mike Pagliarulo, Cal Ripken, Carlton Fisk, Eddie Murray, Harold Baines, Keith Moreland, and Andres Galarraga all making an appearance.