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Saturday, March 29, 2008

Historical SFR

A couple days late in my summary of this week's effort on Baseball Prospectus but this week I ran the Simple Fielding Runs (SFR) system against Retrosheet data from 1988-1998. This was possible without modifying the system since the relevant hit type and fielder data is present for those eleven seasons (in the same ratios as available for 2003 through 2007 for the major leagues and 2005-2007 for the minor leagues).

Although you'll need to read the piece to get all the details, suffice it to say that Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken, Mark Lemke, Ryne Sandberg, Matt Williams, John Olerud, and Mark Grace all come out looking pretty good as you might expect.

A reader asks, however, how Roberto Alomar and Omar Vizquel look and so here's a look at their complete data calculated for SFR thus far.


Roberto Alomar, 1988-2004 at Second Base
Year Team Age Balls Runners Diff SFR Rate
1988 SDN 20 624 126 8 5.9 1.06
1989 SDN 21 672 153 -4 -2.8 0.98
1990 SDN 22 593 138 -9 -7.2 0.93
1991 TOR 23 744 192 10 7.2 1.05
1992 TOR 24 619 167 -4 -3.3 0.97
1993 TOR 25 650 161 -6 -4.8 0.96
1994 TOR 26 395 101 -3 -1.9 0.97
1995 TOR 27 564 127 2 1.7 1.02
1996 BAL 28 605 130 15 11.1 1.11
1997 BAL 29 383 76 19 14.0 1.25
1998 BAL 30 587 144 15 10.9 1.10
2003 CHA/NYN 35 523 148 -22 -16.7 0.85
2004 ARI/CHA 36 125 37 -6 -4.4 0.84

7083 1699 13 9.6 1.01


Interestingly, while SFR didn't like Alomar much in San Diego and Toronto, it did in his three years in Baltimore. Keep in mind that for infielders SFR does not take into account park effects and that both the shortstop and first baseman have an impact on the second baseman since the system parcels out balls assigned to each via overall distributions. Both of these may play a factor here although I haven't researched Baltimore particularly although I did note that Sean Smith's system incldues a similar disparity. Overall Alomar rates out at +9.6 runs and a rate (computed as the ratio of expected runners reached to actual runners) just above average at 1.01.


Omar Vizquel, 1989-2007 at Shortstop
Year Team Age Balls Runners Diff SFR Rate
1989 SEA 22 557 130 9 6.6 1.07
1990 SEA 23 356 90 0 0.1 1.00
1991 SEA 24 609 152 13 9.5 1.08
1992 SEA 25 656 189 1 1.0 1.01
1993 SEA 26 719 188 3 2.6 1.02
1994 CLE 27 293 70 10 7.3 1.14
1995 CLE 28 570 133 18 13.4 1.13
1996 CLE 29 655 168 5 4.2 1.03
1997 CLE 30 633 142 15 11.2 1.10
1998 CLE 31 656 185 14 10.5 1.08
2003 CLE 36 295 59 14 10.4 1.24
2004 CLE 37 597 159 -3 -2.6 0.98
2005 SFN 38 654 153 13 9.4 1.08
2006 SFN 39 590 147 9 7.0 1.06
2007 SFN 40 639 134 38 28.5 1.29

8478 2097 159 119 1.08


Vizquel is predictably excellent for most seasons and rated highest last year although once again, his third baseman certainy had some influence.

Those interested in this topic should definitely check out Sean Smith's work at The Hardball Times where he expands his TotalZone system and provides lots of interesting results.

11 comments:

Chone Smith said...

Did Retrosheet update their dataset? I thought they had the complete data for 1993-1998, in addition to recent years.

Cool stuff.

Dan Agonistes said...

What I'm looking for in running SFR primarily is the percentage of events that include both fielder position and hit type. The data for 1988-1990 is in line with post 1993 while 1991-1992 are missing just a few positions it appears and so I decided to run with it.

The problem years as I see it (for SFR anyway) are 1984-85, 1999 (duh), 2000-2002.

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