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Monday, October 25, 2004

Is it in the Cards?

With the Cardinals down two games to none I was interested to find out how often they might come back. Using my Series Simulator in 100,000 trials this situation happened 30,401 times. The Cardinals came back to win 8,210 times or 27%. They went on to be swept 4,077 times or around 13% of the time. Here are the complete numbers:

Cards in 7 4788 16%
Cards in 6 3422 11%
Sox in 7 5215 17%
Sox in 6 7470 25%
Sox in 5 5429 18%
Sox Sweep 4077 13%

So as you would guess the likely outcome of the series is that the Red Sox will win, but the most likely outcome is that they'll win it in six games.


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