The Hangover Effect

Because I'll be scoring games at Coors Field this season I've been interested in studies that have done on the "Coors Field Effect" and theories on how to win at altitude. Perhaps the first, and most prevalent, of the theories is that Rockies players suffer from a "hangover" effect when they go on the road, accounting for their poor road performance. For example, an article on Slate published last April summed it up this way:

"Rockies hitters-usually struggling hitters-claim that the team is penalized by a hangover effect, where playing at high altitude leaves them ill-prepared to go on the road again and face snapping breaking pitches."

The article goes on to reference the 2000 Baseball Prospectus article by Rany Jazayerli and Keith Woolner that concluded there was no hangover based on data from 2000. I was in the midst of running the numbers myself for 2003 and 2004 when I ran into these articles and so I'll simply publish my results as support for the conclusion that a hangover effect probably does not exist.

2004     G      AB    H   TB   BB    AVG   SLUG    OBP    OPS
Road
1st game 18    450  126  228   46  0.280  0.507  0.347  0.853
others   63   2335  559  894  211  0.239  0.383  0.302  0.685
total    81   2785  685 1122  257  0.246  0.403  0.310  0.713       
Home
1st game 13    456  141  242   64  0.309  0.531  0.394  0.925
others   68   2336  705 1172  242  0.302  0.502  0.367  0.869
total    81   2792  846 1414  306  0.303  0.506  0.372  0.878
        162   5577 1531 2536  563  0.275  0.455  0.341  0.796
         
2003
Road         
1st game 15    511  125  188   56  0.245  0.368  0.319  0.687
others   66   2258  538  887  234  0.238  0.393  0.310  0.703
total    81   2769  663 1075  290  0.239  0.388  0.312  0.700

Home
1st game 14    498  149  266   53  0.299  0.534  0.367  0.901
others   67   2251  660 1117  276  0.293  0.496  0.370  0.867
total    81   2749  809 1383  329  0.294  0.503  0.370  0.873
        162   5518 1472 2458  619  0.267  0.445  0.341  0.786

As you can see, in both 2003 and 2004 the Rockies actually hit better for average in the first game of a road trip than they did in subsequent games although in 2003 their OPS was slightly lower. They also hit better in the first game of homestands for whatever its worth. In any case, there taking these two seasons there doesn't seem to be any reason to believe in the hangover effect as it pertains to first games of series. Of course, that doesn't mean that the hangover might not be persistent for the entire road trip. However, that would be pretty much indistinguishable from the thesis that the Rockies hitters are simply below average, a fact that Coors Field masks.