Incremental Advancement

My column this morning on Baseball Prospectus introduces a fifth baserunning metric to add to the list I discussed last summer. This one was inspired by Bill James' look at baserunning in last year's Bill James Handbook. Specifically the new metric dubbed Equivalent Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR) looks at wild pitches, passed balls, balks, and plays designated as "out advancing".

The methodology is at its core the same as the other metrics in that it is based on run expectancy matrices and is based not only on the change in run expectancy created by these events but also the number and context of the opportunities the runners have.

In the end it appears from my initial look that the normal seasonal range for individual players is +2.5 runs to -2.0 runs. In other words, a runner who not only doesn't get thrown out but ends up with more advancements per time on base (the assumption being that in the long run all runners have approximately equal opportunities to advance) will contribute two and half runs over and above what would have been expected.

As a small preview here are the leaders and trailers for the past two seasons.

Player              Year   Adv  AdvOpps   Opps    EqOAR
Juan Pierre         2005    15      15     438     2.93
Angel Berroa        2005    10      10     306     2.65
Tony Graffanino     2005    13      13     309     2.61
Mark Teahen         2005    12      12     247     2.03
Terrence Long       2005     7       7     236     1.99
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Brent Abernathy     2005     0       1      29    -1.19
Tadahito Iguchi     2005     6       8     300    -1.24
Ben Broussard       2005     0       1     208    -1.38
Michael Cuddyer     2005     4       5     236    -1.53
Michael Young       2005     1       2     404    -1.64

Player              Year   Adv  AdvOpps   Opps    EqOAR
Freddy Sanchez      2006    15      15     383     2.14
Damian Jackson      2006     5       5      61     1.94
Grady Sizemore      2006    16      17     466     1.94
Alex Gonzalez       2006     5       5     199     1.80
Orlando Hudson      2006     9       9     321     1.70
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Sean Casey          2006     1       2     229    -1.31
Matt Holliday       2006     6       7     334    -1.35
Josh Barfield       2006     2       3     313    -1.40
Eric Chavez         2006     2       3     265    -1.67
Nick Johnson        2006     6      10     388    -1.76

Overall, there is little year to correlation on an individual basis although a definite pattern emerges when totals are aggregated over multiple years and at seven years (2000-2006) Juan Pierre emerges as the leader (+6.12 runs) while Paul Konerko brings up the rear (-4.81 runs).