Baserunning 1992

Over the weekend I ran my baserunning framework for the 1992 season. In short, there wasn't alot that was surprising. The leaders in IBP were:

	       Opp	Bases	EB	IB	IBP	OA	IBR

Mark Whiten	43	76	62.68	13.32	1.21	0	4.40

Greg Gagne	40	70	58.13	11.87	1.20	0	3.92

Kenny Lofton	50	88	74.40	13.60	1.18	0	4.49

Bob Zupcic	25	45	38.27	6.73	1.18	0	2.22

Thomas Howard	25	42	35.97	6.03	1.17	0	1.99

Chad Curtis	28	50	42.96	7.04	1.16	0	2.32

Reggie Sanders	25	43	37.06	5.94	1.16	0	1.96

Rafael Palmeiro	48	85	73.39	11.61	1.16	0	3.83

Steve Sax	34	60	52.04	7.96	1.15	0	2.63

Kelly Gruber	22	36	31.25	4.75	1.15	1	1.48

Ok, so probably the most suprising things are that Rafael Palmeiro is in the top 10 and that Matt Williams comes in 21st out of 219 qualifiers. However, it must be remembered that Palmeiro was still just 27 years old in 1992 and that in 1993 he stole 22 bases and was caught only 3 times. His .85 IBP in 2003 puts him 323rd.

Other players in the top 20 are no surprise as well and include Lance Johnson, Henry Cotto, Dion James, Willie McGree and Bip Roberts while the bottom 20 include Kal Daniels, Fred McGriff, Kirt Manwaring, Kevin Mitchell, Tino Martinez, Kevin McReynolds, Charlie Hayes, and Mo Vaugn. Cecil Fielder comes in 203rd. Gary Gaetti takes the top spot for the most times thrown out advancing at 4. A top IBR of 4.49 for Kenny Lofton compares favorably with the 2004 data

I also noticed that the sheer number of opportunities for players is higher in 2003, hopefully not a result a miscalculation on my part. In 2003 for players with more than 20 opportunities the average was 34.9 while in 1992 it was 46.2. Part of this can be attributed to the increased offensive context of 2003 when 9.46 runs were scored per game versus 8.23 in 1992. In 1992 players did not get on base as often and the players behind them did not get hits as often to move them along. Interestingly, this means that from an absolute perspective a good baserunner in 2003 was worth more than a good baserunner in 1992. However, since each run was worth more in 1992 a good baserunner could more easily impact any particular inning or game.

Of course it's difficult to compare the same player across these two data sets to check for consistency since they occur twelve years apart which cuts down on the overlap and because you'd expect the IBP to decline during that time as the players age. That said, I did a quick comparison of 13 players that were in both studies. Of the 13, nine had a higher IBP in 1992 than in 2003 as you might expect. Overall the group's IBP was 1.04 in 1992 and 1.03 in 2003. Here are the results:

	Opp	Bases	EB	IB	IBP	OA	IBR

Ken Griffey Jr.							

2003	26	45	39.77	5.23	1.13	0	1.72

1992	33	54	47.87	6.13	1.13	0	2.02

Reggie Sanders							

2003	35	55	50.88	4.12	1.08	0	1.36

1992	25	43	37.11	5.89	1.16	0	1.95

Kenny Lofton							

2003	66	110	100.71	 9.29	1.09	2	2.89

1992	50	88	74.48	13.52	1.18	0	4.46

Barry Bonds							

2003	80	115	120.85	-5.85	0.95	2	-2.11

1992	55	84	86.34	-2.34	0.97	1	-0.86

Benito Santiago							

2003	43	67	67.31	-0.31	1.00	2	-0.28

1992	21	28	30.54	-2.54	0.92	1	-0.93

Frank Thomas							

2003	73	100	107.97	-7.97	0.93	0	-2.63

1992	70	111	106.37	4.63	1.04	0	1.53

Jeff Kent							

2003	57	88	87.08	0.92	1.01	1	0.21

1992	50	76	71.42	4.58	1.06	0	1.51

Barry Larkin							

2003	32	59	52.40	6.60	1.13	0	2.18

1992	39	61	58.01	2.99	1.05	0	0.99

Larry Walker							

2003	54	96	86.56	9.44	1.11	0	3.11

1992	42	74	71.12	2.88	1.04	1	0.86

Gary Sheffield							

2003	84	130	130.11	-0.11	1.00	2	-0.21

1992	34	56	53.45	2.55	1.05	0	0.84

Jeff Bagwell							

2003	73	113	115.14	-2.14	0.98	2	-0.89

1992	44	69	69.07	-0.07	1.00	0	-0.02

Craig Biggio							

2003	79	122	115.76	6.24	1.05	1	1.97

1992	67	94	100.75	-6.75	0.93	2	-2.41

Ivan Rodriguez							

2003	61	92	90.80	1.20	1.01	1	0.31

1992	22	34	31.87	2.13	1.07	0	0.70



2003	763	1192	1165.36	26.64	1.02	13	 7.62

1992	552	872	838.40	33.60	1.04	5	10.64

And from a team perspective they break down as follows:

	Opp	Bases	EB	IB	IBP	OA	IBR

CLE	409	641	603.48	37.52	1.06	9	11.57

CAL	344	545	513.88	31.12	1.06	9	9.46

CHA	412	653	628.06	24.94	1.04	9	7.42

SFN	350	538	523.21	14.79	1.03	5	4.43

MIN	476	738	718.94	19.06	1.03	10	5.39

SLN	397	604	591.75	12.25	1.02	4	3.68

TEX	397	619	607.04	11.96	1.02	7	3.32

BAL	418	644	632.06	11.94	1.02	8	3.22

NYA	414	639	628.58	10.42	1.02	7	2.81

MIL	429	658	647.67	10.33	1.02	7	2.78

TOR	375	559	550.79	8.21	1.01	6	2.17

OAK	428	641	640.54	0.46	1.00	13	-1.02

NYN	347	536	535.92	0.08	1.00	11	-0.96

PIT	402	610	618.99	-8.99	0.99	11	-3.96

CHN	374	561	569.38	-8.38	0.99	10	-3.66

KCA	369	563	573.27	-10.27	0.98	14	-4.65

MON	399	588	600.18	-12.18	0.98	13	-5.19

LAN	370	539	552.93	-13.93	0.97	8	-5.32

PHI	403	588	604.49	-16.49	0.97	8	-6.16

DET	425	620	638.60	-18.60	0.97	9	-6.95

ATL	382	560	577.17	-17.17	0.97	12	-6.75

CIN	393	581	598.88	-17.88	0.97	10	-6.80

HOU	380	555	576.86	-21.86	0.96	9	-8.02

BOS	425	616	640.75	-24.75	0.96	13	-9.34

SEA	403	577	603.99	-26.99	0.96	8	-9.63

SDN	329	440	479.59	-39.59	0.92	12	-14.14

And as I found in 2003 the difference between teams is on the order of 75 bases or around 25 runs or 2.5 wins per season.