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Monday, November 15, 2004

Baserunning 1992

Over the weekend I ran my baserunning framework for the 1992 season. In short, there wasn't alot that was surprising. The leaders in IBP were:


Opp Bases EB IB IBP OA IBR
Mark Whiten 43 76 62.68 13.32 1.21 0 4.40
Greg Gagne 40 70 58.13 11.87 1.20 0 3.92
Kenny Lofton 50 88 74.40 13.60 1.18 0 4.49
Bob Zupcic 25 45 38.27 6.73 1.18 0 2.22
Thomas Howard 25 42 35.97 6.03 1.17 0 1.99
Chad Curtis 28 50 42.96 7.04 1.16 0 2.32
Reggie Sanders 25 43 37.06 5.94 1.16 0 1.96
Rafael Palmeiro 48 85 73.39 11.61 1.16 0 3.83
Steve Sax 34 60 52.04 7.96 1.15 0 2.63
Kelly Gruber 22 36 31.25 4.75 1.15 1 1.48

Ok, so probably the most suprising things are that Rafael Palmeiro is in the top 10 and that Matt Williams comes in 21st out of 219 qualifiers. However, it must be remembered that Palmeiro was still just 27 years old in 1992 and that in 1993 he stole 22 bases and was caught only 3 times. His .85 IBP in 2003 puts him 323rd.

Other players in the top 20 are no surprise as well and include Lance Johnson, Henry Cotto, Dion James, Willie McGree and Bip Roberts while the bottom 20 include Kal Daniels, Fred McGriff, Kirt Manwaring, Kevin Mitchell, Tino Martinez, Kevin McReynolds, Charlie Hayes, and Mo Vaugn. Cecil Fielder comes in 203rd. Gary Gaetti takes the top spot for the most times thrown out advancing at 4. A top IBR of 4.49 for Kenny Lofton compares favorably with the 2004 data

I also noticed that the sheer number of opportunities for players is higher in 2003, hopefully not a result a miscalculation on my part. In 2003 for players with more than 20 opportunities the average was 34.9 while in 1992 it was 46.2. Part of this can be attributed to the increased offensive context of 2003 when 9.46 runs were scored per game versus 8.23 in 1992. In 1992 players did not get on base as often and the players behind them did not get hits as often to move them along. Interestingly, this means that from an absolute perspective a good baserunner in 2003 was worth more than a good baserunner in 1992. However, since each run was worth more in 1992 a good baserunner could more easily impact any particular inning or game.

Of course it's difficult to compare the same player across these two data sets to check for consistency since they occur twelve years apart which cuts down on the overlap and because you'd expect the IBP to decline during that time as the players age. That said, I did a quick comparison of 13 players that were in both studies. Of the 13, nine had a higher IBP in 1992 than in 2003 as you might expect. Overall the group's IBP was 1.04 in 1992 and 1.03 in 2003. Here are the results:

Opp Bases EB IB IBP OA IBR
Ken Griffey Jr.
2003 26 45 39.77 5.23 1.13 0 1.72
1992 33 54 47.87 6.13 1.13 0 2.02
Reggie Sanders
2003 35 55 50.88 4.12 1.08 0 1.36
1992 25 43 37.11 5.89 1.16 0 1.95
Kenny Lofton
2003 66 110 100.71 9.29 1.09 2 2.89
1992 50 88 74.48 13.52 1.18 0 4.46
Barry Bonds
2003 80 115 120.85 -5.85 0.95 2 -2.11
1992 55 84 86.34 -2.34 0.97 1 -0.86
Benito Santiago
2003 43 67 67.31 -0.31 1.00 2 -0.28
1992 21 28 30.54 -2.54 0.92 1 -0.93
Frank Thomas
2003 73 100 107.97 -7.97 0.93 0 -2.63
1992 70 111 106.37 4.63 1.04 0 1.53
Jeff Kent
2003 57 88 87.08 0.92 1.01 1 0.21
1992 50 76 71.42 4.58 1.06 0 1.51
Barry Larkin
2003 32 59 52.40 6.60 1.13 0 2.18
1992 39 61 58.01 2.99 1.05 0 0.99
Larry Walker
2003 54 96 86.56 9.44 1.11 0 3.11
1992 42 74 71.12 2.88 1.04 1 0.86
Gary Sheffield
2003 84 130 130.11 -0.11 1.00 2 -0.21
1992 34 56 53.45 2.55 1.05 0 0.84
Jeff Bagwell
2003 73 113 115.14 -2.14 0.98 2 -0.89
1992 44 69 69.07 -0.07 1.00 0 -0.02
Craig Biggio
2003 79 122 115.76 6.24 1.05 1 1.97
1992 67 94 100.75 -6.75 0.93 2 -2.41
Ivan Rodriguez
2003 61 92 90.80 1.20 1.01 1 0.31
1992 22 34 31.87 2.13 1.07 0 0.70

2003 763 1192 1165.36 26.64 1.02 13 7.62
1992 552 872 838.40 33.60 1.04 5 10.64

And from a team perspective they break down as follows:

Opp Bases EB IB IBP OA IBR
CLE 409 641 603.48 37.52 1.06 9 11.57
CAL 344 545 513.88 31.12 1.06 9 9.46
CHA 412 653 628.06 24.94 1.04 9 7.42
SFN 350 538 523.21 14.79 1.03 5 4.43
MIN 476 738 718.94 19.06 1.03 10 5.39
SLN 397 604 591.75 12.25 1.02 4 3.68
TEX 397 619 607.04 11.96 1.02 7 3.32
BAL 418 644 632.06 11.94 1.02 8 3.22
NYA 414 639 628.58 10.42 1.02 7 2.81
MIL 429 658 647.67 10.33 1.02 7 2.78
TOR 375 559 550.79 8.21 1.01 6 2.17
OAK 428 641 640.54 0.46 1.00 13 -1.02
NYN 347 536 535.92 0.08 1.00 11 -0.96
PIT 402 610 618.99 -8.99 0.99 11 -3.96
CHN 374 561 569.38 -8.38 0.99 10 -3.66
KCA 369 563 573.27 -10.27 0.98 14 -4.65
MON 399 588 600.18 -12.18 0.98 13 -5.19
LAN 370 539 552.93 -13.93 0.97 8 -5.32
PHI 403 588 604.49 -16.49 0.97 8 -6.16
DET 425 620 638.60 -18.60 0.97 9 -6.95
ATL 382 560 577.17 -17.17 0.97 12 -6.75
CIN 393 581 598.88 -17.88 0.97 10 -6.80
HOU 380 555 576.86 -21.86 0.96 9 -8.02
BOS 425 616 640.75 -24.75 0.96 13 -9.34
SEA 403 577 603.99 -26.99 0.96 8 -9.63
SDN 329 440 479.59 -39.59 0.92 12 -14.14

And as I found in 2003 the difference between teams is on the order of 75 bases or around 25 runs or 2.5 wins per season.

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