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Friday, November 19, 2004

Leaving the Bat on Your Shoulder

Here's an interesting question:

What are the odds of walking if you don't swing at any pitches?

To answer that question I used the Lahman database and play-by-play files from 2003 to look at all plate appearances that were not intentional walks. Here's the answer:


Non IBB PA
186121

BB-IBB Pct
14573 7.8%

BB No Swings Pct
6842 3.7%

K Pct
30881 16.6%

K No Swings Pct
1108 0.6%

So about one out of 26 plate appearances a batter walks while not offering at a pitch. For this study "offerring" included swinging, bunting, foul tips, missed bunt attempts, swinging at intentional balls, and foul balls. I also found that striking out without offerring is actually more rare and happens only once in 150 plate appearances.

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