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Monday, September 05, 2005

Smart Ball Consistency

Here's an interesting study done by fellow SABR member Cyril Morong regarding the White Sox and the consistency of run scoring.

Cyril's conclusion is that the Sox of 2005 have been successul because of their run prevention, not their stated attempt to create a more consistent offense that doens't rely on the homerun as much. In fact, this year:

"the Sox have scored 3 or fewer runs 46 times, while last year it was 48 times. That tiny difference might be due to luck. And if we look at games with 2 runs or less, the Sox actually have more this year (39 vs. 37)"

Cyril then went on to see if consistent teams actually do win more games than inconsistnet ones using a regression analysis. He found that they do but the difference is small in comparison to simply looking at the aggregate runs scored and runs allowed. His conclusion is that "consistency did not help explain a team’s winning pct very much and the most consistent teams did not win more than expected."

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