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Wednesday, October 19, 2005

First to Third

One of the interesting quotes in the Jeff Angus piece on Mike Scoscia was where Scoscia said:

"We can't manufacture on base, so we can't afford to have any wither on the vine. Last year, we went from 1st to 3rd {base} 99 times; we were thrown out six times. Conversely, the Oakland Athletics who play a very passive running game because they don't want to run into outs went {from}1st to 3rd, I believe it was 31 times...you can get those numbers...and they got thrown out 4 times."

This is interesting to me since my base running framework tracks what happens when a batter singles with a runner on first. For 2004 I had the Angels as having 271 such opportunities and reaching third 74 times or 27.3% of the time. I also had them scoring 3 times and getting thrown out 7 times. For the A's I calculated that they reached third 58 times in 235 chances (24.7%) while scoring twice and getting thrown out only once.

Now in my numbers I'm only including those times when second base was not occupied. When I include the times when a runner was on second the Angels had 375 opportunities and made it to third 107 times, scoring four times and getting thrown out 10 times. The A's advanced to third 81 times in 340 chances scoring twice and getting cut down four times.

Based on this I'm not sure how the Angels are calculating their numbers but the point is that they're not that different from other teams and in fact the number of baserunners they lose more than makes up for the small difference in advancement. The reason that they score runs with less is that they hit so well with runners in scoring position both in 2004andd 2005.

In any case here are the numbers for 2005 when second base was unoccupied sorted in order by how often the team advances to third on a single (these are not park adjusted of course).


Team Opp Second Pct Third Pct Scores OA
NYN 205 128 62.4% 73 35.6% 3 1
TBA 238 156 65.5% 77 32.4% 4 1
NYA 282 185 65.6% 91 32.3% 4 2
CHN 226 154 68.1% 69 30.5% 1 2
CHA 242 167 69.0% 73 30.2% 1 1
KCA 233 161 69.1% 70 30.0% 0 2
ANA 244 168 68.9% 72 29.5% 2 2
ATL 202 143 70.8% 59 29.2% 0 0
HOU 198 138 69.7% 57 28.8% 1 2
OAK 232 164 70.7% 66 28.4% 2 0
TOR 254 177 69.7% 72 28.3% 1 4
SFN 235 167 71.1% 64 27.2% 1 3
TEX 199 141 70.9% 54 27.1% 2 2
MIL 204 143 70.1% 55 27.0% 1 5
FLO 244 177 72.5% 65 26.6% 2 0
CIN 198 145 73.2% 52 26.3% 1 0
COL 228 164 71.9% 59 25.9% 2 3
WAS 217 158 72.8% 56 25.8% 0 3
ARI 221 163 73.8% 57 25.8% 0 0
PHI 226 157 69.5% 58 25.7% 6 5
LAN 221 161 72.9% 56 25.3% 2 2
SLN 225 166 73.8% 57 25.3% 1 1
BAL 229 169 73.8% 58 25.3% 1 1
BOS 257 189 73.5% 65 25.3% 1 1
DET 246 181 73.6% 61 24.8% 2 2
PIT 227 167 73.6% 56 24.7% 2 2
SDN 208 152 73.1% 51 24.5% 0 5
CLE 213 158 74.2% 52 24.4% 0 3
MIN 243 182 74.9% 57 23.5% 2 2
SEA 197 147 74.6% 45 22.8% 4 1

Looks like the Phils were the most high risk-high reward team getting thrown out five times but also scoring six times.

1 comment:

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