Fouls and More Fouls

I recently had the opportunity to look up some information on foul balls just for kicks.

Disclaimer: The foul balls tracked for this article do not include foul tips nor they do include foul balls that are caught by fielders. They do include both fouls that get into the stands and those that don't.

This data is for 2000-2004.

Top 10 hitters in fouls per time at bat (most likely to foul off a pitch when they're up)

 
Kevin Young    0.821
Johnny Estrada 0.819
Joe McEwing    0.798
Vance Wilson   0.783
Tomas Perez    0.775
Ruben Mateo    0.773 
Mike DiFelice  0.771
Dante Bichette 0.757 
Geronimo Gil   0.754 
Scott Rolen    0.753

Bottom 10 Hitters in fouls per time at bat (least likely to foul off a pitch when they're up)

Lenny Harris   0.471
Mark Grace     0.470 
Eric Young     0.468 
Mark McGwire   0.467 
Tom Goodwin    0.464 
Mark McLemore  0.463 
Jason Tyner    0.462
Covelli Crisp  0.458
Bill Haselman  0.447
Dave Roberts   0.443

Top 10 Pitchers (these are from 2000-2004 for pitchers that have faced more than 200 batters) in fouls per times at bat (most likely to have a pitch fouled off when they're pitching to a batter)

 
Guardado, Eddie   0.884 
Percival, Troy    0.872 
Springer, Russ    0.866  
Francisco, Frank  0.861 
Balfour, Grant    0.834 
Rodriguez, Felix  0.829 
Bedard, Erik      0.824 
Baez, Danys       0.818  
Donnelly, Brendan 0.816
Cotts, Neal       0.811 

Bottom 10 Pitchers (least likely to have a pitch fouled off when they're pitching to a batter)

Cornelius, Reid    0.461 
Miller, Matt       0.459 
Halama, John       0.459 
Tollberg, Brian    0.458  
Wagner, Ryan       0.452 
Eiland, Dave       0.450  
Kamieniecki, Scott 0.443  
Reyes, Carlos      0.415 
Neu, Mike          0.410 
Morgan, Mike       0.405 

Top 10 hitters in fouls per pitch (most likely to foul off a pitch)

Johnny Estrada    0.245
A.J. Pierzynski   0.235
Toby Hall         0.223
Ivan Rodriguez    0.212 
Dmitri Young      0.212
Dante Bichette    0.212
Ben Molina        0.212
Jay Gibbons       0.210
Ruben Mateo       0.210
Jose Vizcaino     0.208

Bottom 10 hitters in fouls per pitch (least likely to foul off a pitch)

Mark Johnson      0.127
Scott Hatteberg   0.125
John Olerud       0.124
Hideki Matsui     0.124
Randy Velarde     0.124
Todd Zeile        0.123
Tom Goodwin       0.120
Mark McGwire      0.119
Mark McLemore     0.117
Dave Roberts      0.115

Top 10 pitchers in fouls per pitch (most likely to foul off a pitch)

Guardado Eddie    0.226
Springer Russ     0.223
White Gabe        0.218
Rivera Mariano    0.218
Darensbourg Vic   0.218
Shaw Jeff         0.214
Kohlmeier Ryan    0.212
Hawkins LaTroy    0.211
Embree Alan       0.208
Acevedo Juan      0.207

Bottom 10 pitchers in fouls per pitch (least likely to foul off a pitch)

Jones Bobby M.    0.126
Orosco Jesse      0.126
Nance Shane       0.125
Reyes Carlos      0.123
Morgan Mike       0.123
Olson Gregg       0.122
Holtz Mike        0.122
Kamieniecki Scott 0.121
Wagner Ryan       0.120
Neu Mike          0.114

So if you took Johnny Estrada versus Eddie Guardado, theoretically the odds of a foul ball being hit on a pitch would be 32.2%. I say theoretically because of course Estrada may have lots of trouble hitting Guardado at all because of his particular repertoire of pitches or arm angle or whatever or he may hit him great and every swing is a line drive. That number was calculated using a formula Bill James discussed in his 1981 Baseball Abstract to calculate the theoretical batting average for specific batter/pitcher matchups, which as it turns out works very well.

In thinking about this though I did run the actual batter/pitcher matchups (where the batter had hit against the pitcher more than 15 times) for foul balls and found that the top 5 most foul balls per pitch (most likely to foul off a pitch) in last five years were:

Fouls Pitches  PA  Fouls/PA  Fouls/Pitch
Carl Crawford vs Curt Schilling
  24    57     17    1.412    0.421
Jay Payton vs Bruce Chen 
  24    61     15    1.600    0.393
Todd Hollandsworth vs Curt Schilling 
  37   100     19    1.947    0.370
Carlos Lee vs LaTroy Hawkins
  24    65     16    1.500    0.369
Brandon Phillps vs Darrell May
  19    52     15    1.267    0.365

So Crawford through 2004 has fouled off 42.1% of the pitches thrown to him by Schilling.

For ballparks Yankee Stadium had 20,637 foul balls hit there from 2000-2004 good for .666 per time at bat. The lowest was Oakland which had 18,520 for .593 per at bat. In Oakland at least I think that's due to the really large foul territory where fielders can catch the fouls before the ball enters the stands.

The average number of foul balls per game was about 48 in 2004. A park like Yankee Stadium would then get around 51 foul balls while in Oakland it would be more like 45 based on an average of 77 batters up in a game.