Last week my column took a look at some of the larger issues with regards to the baserunning metrics I've been developing this summer. The first part of the column examined how teams stacked up and because space didn't permit the entire list, here are all 180 teams from 2000 through 2005 ranked by year and the net theoretical contribution in terms of runs.
Year Team Opps EqGAR Opps EqAAR Opps PO CS EqSBR Opps OA EqHAR Total
2000 KCA 326 2.68 307 4.33 156 4 39 -0.68 461 8 3.48 9.81
2000 CHA 330 0.10 286 2.23 163 7 49 -3.35 390 6 7.70 6.67
2000 COL 315 5.35 299 1.93 191 7 68 -12.45 445 7 11.28 6.12
2000 CIN 304 2.43 295 4.49 139 7 45 -5.91 382 7 -0.45 0.56
2000 SDN 314 0.28 253 3.87 183 5 58 -9.53 306 6 4.45 -0.93
2000 SFN 279 2.57 291 3.96 120 4 43 -9.50 382 7 -0.24 -3.21
2000 TEX 318 -3.59 291 -0.32 119 4 51 -10.09 425 2 9.95 -4.06
2000 MIL 290 1.82 237 4.39 117 3 47 -13.47 329 7 3.15 -4.11
2000 FLO 282 -1.39 274 -3.17 230 12 67 -5.92 324 5 4.91 -5.58
2000 PHI 293 1.59 262 -4.24 135 6 36 -0.33 339 10 -3.66 -6.65
2000 PIT 319 1.88 286 -1.60 132 9 49 -9.39 346 7 2.43 -6.68
2000 DET 292 1.45 307 -5.32 123 6 44 -10.52 426 3 6.15 -8.23
2000 ATL 332 1.80 258 0.69 200 6 62 -7.45 357 11 -4.05 -9.01
2000 OAK 282 -1.27 287 -0.37 55 4 19 -3.08 378 12 -5.03 -9.74
2000 NYN 279 0.43 275 3.71 112 3 49 -12.79 349 6 -1.26 -9.91
2000 CLE 280 -1.67 290 -6.41 143 2 36 0.44 395 11 -2.43 -10.07
2000 ARI 275 -0.57 318 2.17 140 4 48 -10.74 365 12 -1.26 -10.40
2000 LAN 287 -2.94 276 1.62 140 5 47 -8.42 334 8 -1.03 -10.76
2000 SEA 313 -0.60 305 4.35 178 7 63 -14.84 352 8 0.03 -11.06
2000 MIN 325 -0.25 276 4.62 138 5 50 -11.70 398 10 -4.73 -12.06
2000 NYA 269 -4.12 298 1.82 150 6 54 -12.21 393 5 2.20 -12.31
2000 SLN 302 0.56 274 1.00 143 7 58 -14.76 383 7 0.32 -12.88
2000 CHN 317 1.64 244 0.18 130 5 42 -5.25 346 12 -9.83 -13.26
2000 ANA 290 3.59 299 -6.10 150 7 59 -11.82 395 9 0.48 -13.86
2000 TOR 274 -1.44 267 -0.56 128 6 40 -4.01 385 10 -9.02 -15.02
2000 TBA 292 0.90 282 -1.21 135 2 48 -7.65 352 11 -7.21 -15.18
2000 BAL 293 -3.54 337 -2.28 190 5 70 -12.93 391 6 3.01 -15.74
2000 MON 361 5.03 254 -2.59 114 9 57 -18.25 327 8 0.00 -15.82
2000 HOU 291 0.05 285 -0.84 170 9 61 -13.31 400 9 -2.70 -16.80
2000 BOS 282 -0.96 324 -3.86 78 5 35 -9.97 381 10 -6.73 -21.52
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2001 SEA 297 -1.06 320 2.80 212 7 49 -0.83 421 6 8.67 9.57
2001 COL 354 3.13 251 0.74 188 10 64 -9.03 379 8 11.47 6.31
2001 TEX 252 -1.33 305 4.24 130 8 40 -1.20 372 9 4.34 6.05
2001 OAK 238 -0.95 275 2.58 98 4 33 -5.41 341 4 4.93 1.15
2001 ANA 268 3.81 316 -0.08 169 5 57 -10.19 381 7 5.90 -0.56
2001 SLN 332 1.18 269 -1.31 129 8 43 -8.47 329 9 7.47 -1.12
2001 PHI 268 0.37 294 3.97 195 6 53 -3.93 346 9 -1.62 -1.21
2001 KCA 328 0.20 289 0.21 147 8 50 -6.78 360 6 3.64 -2.75
2001 FLO 311 2.40 269 -2.36 133 5 45 -3.91 316 4 0.30 -3.57
2001 NYA 282 -3.82 287 1.76 218 9 62 -5.04 327 4 3.42 -3.69
2001 ARI 301 1.66 285 -1.77 111 4 42 -9.27 316 6 3.61 -5.78
2001 CHA 283 2.70 260 3.08 187 13 72 -14.05 314 6 1.88 -6.40
2001 BAL 267 -0.49 275 1.49 189 9 62 -9.31 317 7 0.99 -7.32
2001 MIN 302 -0.69 240 0.72 213 8 75 -12.22 344 11 4.11 -8.08
2001 CHN 323 1.87 242 0.08 104 3 39 -10.66 347 6 -1.03 -9.74
2001 TOR 295 -0.79 260 -0.38 218 10 65 -5.90 328 8 -3.55 -10.62
2001 SDN 255 -3.07 284 1.48 173 10 54 -8.53 325 7 -1.63 -11.75
2001 HOU 308 1.28 277 0.66 116 3 52 -13.82 354 10 -0.81 -12.69
2001 TBA 309 -0.55 211 -1.29 166 3 55 -8.48 351 10 -2.54 -12.86
2001 DET 282 0.64 274 -0.93 198 8 69 -11.14 318 11 -1.63 -13.07
2001 ATL 324 1.33 262 -0.17 132 5 51 -13.52 331 15 -2.09 -14.45
2001 CLE 306 0.69 287 -5.20 123 5 46 -9.90 357 8 -1.06 -15.48
2001 LAN 274 -0.99 257 1.53 134 6 48 -8.60 292 13 -7.44 -15.50
2001 CIN 302 -1.09 231 1.04 161 8 62 -16.18 331 12 -2.22 -18.45
2001 MIL 269 2.41 222 0.97 108 8 44 -12.72 311 13 -12.07 -21.41
2001 PIT 299 3.61 255 -4.43 170 9 82 -26.71 285 8 5.72 -21.81
2001 MON 325 0.08 252 -2.74 154 8 59 -16.85 310 6 -3.74 -23.24
2001 BOS 266 -1.07 249 -3.03 83 4 39 -12.77 356 13 -10.39 -27.27
2001 SFN 267 0.57 281 -4.68 103 5 47 -13.65 332 11 -12.23 -29.99
2001 NYN 259 -1.16 297 -8.34 120 7 55 -20.72 328 12 -2.42 -32.64
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2002 NYA 270 -2.79 286 -0.05 141 5 43 -2.17 376 7 5.19 0.18
2002 TOR 245 -1.99 283 2.19 91 4 22 -1.60 350 6 0.58 -0.82
2002 TEX 271 2.61 305 -0.32 97 1 35 -7.76 348 5 3.87 -1.60
2002 SLN 296 2.45 302 -3.13 129 4 46 -9.52 363 8 6.43 -3.76
2002 LAN 349 -2.11 252 0.69 137 8 45 -6.29 323 6 2.52 -5.19
2002 SFN 295 2.77 275 1.79 102 8 29 -3.61 340 11 -6.69 -5.75
2002 OAK 247 -3.38 273 2.36 67 4 24 -5.24 351 7 -0.77 -7.03
2002 TBA 270 -2.52 241 0.78 151 6 51 -6.79 328 7 1.36 -7.17
2002 COL 287 2.38 240 -0.31 164 11 64 -15.29 350 10 5.99 -7.22
2002 MON 348 2.60 246 2.47 182 2 66 -15.06 328 13 2.09 -7.91
2002 CIN 317 0.09 213 -0.23 167 3 55 -9.38 279 8 1.39 -8.14
2002 BAL 285 0.05 266 -1.69 161 5 53 -7.11 297 11 0.50 -8.24
2002 CHN 294 1.21 231 -0.14 90 7 28 -4.49 305 7 -5.07 -8.50
2002 DET 251 -1.45 251 3.27 110 2 46 -13.40 338 12 2.33 -9.26
2002 FLO 337 1.37 260 -0.34 247 5 78 -10.21 323 10 -0.35 -9.53
2002 PIT 272 0.35 267 0.16 132 5 54 -12.50 294 5 1.81 -10.18
2002 ANA 306 2.25 357 -3.87 169 5 56 -8.71 437 8 -0.23 -10.56
2002 NYN 324 2.60 233 -3.02 136 8 50 -13.00 328 10 2.59 -10.83
2002 SEA 287 -0.74 324 1.03 194 9 67 -13.16 363 8 1.24 -11.63
2002 BOS 280 -2.32 297 -2.50 114 7 35 -3.96 371 13 -5.65 -14.44
2002 PHI 323 -4.40 274 -2.05 150 7 50 -7.96 343 9 -0.23 -14.64
2002 HOU 268 -2.49 235 -0.54 102 6 33 -7.63 365 13 -4.47 -15.13
2002 MIN 323 -0.99 271 2.79 138 2 64 -18.60 366 8 1.22 -15.58
2002 KCA 265 -0.23 291 -2.93 208 7 72 -15.53 343 12 3.07 -15.63
2002 CLE 292 -2.45 228 1.75 91 2 39 -11.20 319 8 -4.61 -16.51
2002 ATL 320 -2.81 272 -1.57 118 4 43 -11.67 337 8 -1.41 -17.45
2002 ARI 304 -1.13 281 1.25 142 6 52 -12.35 340 11 -5.57 -17.79
2002 SDN 312 -0.96 254 -3.91 114 5 49 -15.11 337 10 0.00 -19.96
2002 CHA 254 -1.48 307 -3.35 116 13 44 -12.54 329 12 -2.60 -19.98
2002 MIL 339 -1.21 241 -4.92 155 13 63 -17.51 317 12 -4.51 -28.15
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2003 OAK 289 -2.49 299 2.26 61 2 16 -0.25 401 11 5.23 4.75
2003 SLN 325 2.96 301 2.39 107 3 35 -6.60 478 11 2.74 1.50
2003 NYN 322 2.14 240 3.29 105 6 37 -7.22 379 7 2.68 0.89
2003 MIN 338 0.80 280 2.88 145 10 54 -8.88 461 8 4.92 -0.28
2003 CHA 281 0.38 264 -2.68 111 7 36 -4.71 413 5 6.49 -0.52
2003 KCA 304 -1.89 284 1.06 165 9 51 -3.54 490 10 2.69 -1.68
2003 ATL 310 -1.24 280 2.50 93 6 28 -3.39 467 11 -1.10 -3.22
2003 TOR 283 0.04 324 2.00 63 2 27 -7.63 463 9 1.53 -4.06
2003 COL 309 -2.28 268 -2.06 103 4 41 -9.08 413 7 9.36 -4.07
2003 ANA 300 4.62 308 0.90 188 5 66 -12.13 436 7 2.06 -4.56
2003 BAL 296 -0.33 288 -2.97 129 7 43 -6.49 470 9 5.11 -4.67
2003 BOS 260 -4.72 318 5.07 126 4 39 -4.76 475 7 -0.96 -5.38
2003 DET 301 -0.14 253 4.90 161 3 66 -10.78 356 8 0.41 -5.60
2003 CIN 255 1.63 242 2.24 113 4 38 -8.51 376 12 -1.69 -6.33
2003 PIT 318 1.22 264 -2.47 124 6 43 -7.47 408 7 2.35 -6.36
2003 TBA 296 -3.59 257 -1.34 185 5 47 -1.46 446 12 -0.24 -6.64
2003 SEA 287 -0.03 306 0.61 141 2 39 -1.66 465 9 -6.38 -7.46
2003 TEX 266 -1.65 299 0.28 92 4 29 -4.00 414 11 -2.40 -7.78
2003 FLO 313 2.81 238 1.37 228 6 80 -13.32 420 11 0.27 -8.86
2003 SDN 301 -0.41 292 -3.84 118 3 42 -8.54 438 4 2.66 -10.13
2003 NYA 282 -2.80 317 -2.21 138 10 43 -4.79 449 14 -0.76 -10.56
2003 MON 354 0.08 234 0.34 140 3 42 -6.68 413 10 -4.53 -10.79
2003 ARI 338 -1.46 255 0.98 118 4 42 -6.86 432 9 -3.51 -10.85
2003 MIL 297 2.45 208 1.14 143 5 44 -5.29 383 13 -10.84 -12.54
2003 HOU 293 -1.52 276 -1.23 97 3 33 -5.01 433 12 -5.08 -12.84
2003 CLE 274 -2.84 256 0.39 152 11 72 -19.32 407 6 8.71 -13.06
2003 LAN 306 -0.38 241 -2.85 118 5 41 -7.47 395 6 -2.57 -13.28
2003 SFN 285 -0.38 271 -0.28 90 1 38 -11.56 399 6 -1.48 -13.71
2003 PHI 292 -2.18 254 -1.09 105 5 35 -7.45 427 10 -5.14 -15.85
2003 CHN 301 -2.22 273 1.50 110 8 39 -6.97 409 15 -10.33 -18.02
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2004 SLN 319 2.59 282 4.46 159 4 51 -5.76 447 6 9.19 10.47
2004 ANA 325 5.08 268 0.57 187 6 52 -0.98 489 13 1.96 6.63
2004 MON 316 2.54 236 -5.13 147 3 41 -0.50 373 4 9.16 6.07
2004 ATL 299 -1.35 228 4.52 119 1 33 -1.72 428 8 -0.51 0.94
2004 TBA 279 -0.30 293 0.31 175 5 47 0.40 398 6 0.06 0.47
2004 SDN 315 3.39 333 -1.91 78 3 28 -6.16 490 9 3.83 -0.85
2004 COL 351 -0.18 249 -1.23 81 4 37 -10.34 445 10 10.16 -1.58
2004 SFN 333 0.74 268 3.67 72 6 29 -9.67 438 7 2.91 -2.36
2004 HOU 319 1.35 277 0.98 114 3 33 -2.13 421 10 -2.57 -2.37
2004 NYA 292 -0.88 272 1.95 111 1 34 -3.93 436 8 -0.60 -3.46
2004 MIL 281 1.11 223 3.28 185 9 49 -2.36 383 7 -6.47 -4.45
2004 MIN 328 0.77 296 -1.32 161 6 52 -7.79 420 8 3.64 -4.70
2004 LAN 311 0.60 243 -2.93 148 7 48 -6.06 397 6 3.54 -4.86
2004 NYN 320 -2.19 240 -1.79 132 3 26 4.47 360 11 -5.79 -5.30
2004 CHA 270 2.59 270 4.21 135 8 59 -15.85 379 8 3.11 -5.94
2004 ARI 302 -0.64 240 -2.65 84 1 33 -7.73 398 5 4.58 -6.44
2004 TEX 225 1.01 290 -1.68 110 5 41 -9.49 422 7 3.65 -6.51
2004 TOR 265 0.69 256 0.94 95 8 39 -8.71 443 10 0.27 -6.80
2004 PHI 315 0.77 269 -1.23 129 3 30 1.95 425 12 -9.30 -7.81
2004 PIT 330 2.56 230 3.39 107 5 45 -14.44 399 6 -0.96 -9.46
2004 CIN 277 0.71 227 -3.01 105 4 29 -1.27 364 10 -6.35 -9.92
2004 BAL 276 -0.28 302 0.65 145 9 50 -12.36 498 14 1.52 -10.47
2004 DET 306 1.24 272 0.81 141 8 58 -12.84 422 10 -0.14 -10.91
2004 FLO 354 -0.74 249 -2.09 142 6 49 -7.75 391 11 -2.36 -12.95
2004 OAK 269 -3.88 286 0.44 72 5 27 -5.97 444 7 -4.15 -13.55
2004 CLE 326 -2.08 312 -3.11 153 7 62 -15.47 466 9 6.28 -14.38
2004 KCA 288 -0.04 280 -3.82 119 6 54 -17.50 424 6 5.52 -15.84
2004 CHN 307 -3.19 287 2.15 102 8 36 -9.08 396 11 -6.55 -16.67
2004 SEA 333 0.00 260 0.46 152 8 50 -8.23 488 10 -9.06 -16.84
2004 BOS 255 -4.67 299 1.12 100 4 34 -6.60 484 12 -14.80 -24.95
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2005 NYN 289 2.40 246 -2.57 194 8 48 2.60 372 5 6.86 9.28
2005 ATL 313 -1.32 269 0.61 125 3 35 -0.09 392 4 7.99 7.19
2005 TEX 244 -1.71 276 3.58 84 3 18 1.38 402 6 2.68 5.94
2005 TBA 283 -1.66 277 -2.49 201 7 56 -5.33 447 6 12.42 2.93
2005 SLN 308 3.94 253 4.46 118 4 40 -8.83 448 6 2.62 2.19
2005 OAK 259 -2.24 320 -2.58 54 1 23 -5.79 478 3 10.73 0.12
2005 COL 311 1.47 259 1.08 99 4 36 -9.49 449 7 6.58 -0.35
2005 TOR 292 -2.37 257 4.22 106 2 37 -6.94 453 10 2.90 -2.18
2005 DET 285 -4.57 260 5.07 98 6 34 -5.91 445 5 2.26 -3.15
2005 CHA 281 2.35 273 1.58 209 8 75 -10.01 420 11 2.40 -3.69
2005 ARI 310 0.77 249 3.32 97 5 31 -4.97 393 6 -3.59 -4.46
2005 KCA 294 -0.95 293 2.43 97 12 45 -13.78 453 7 7.53 -4.78
2005 SEA 286 -1.30 273 -1.80 150 8 55 -7.79 403 5 5.54 -5.36
2005 CLE 290 -1.82 280 4.30 104 6 42 -12.05 437 7 3.77 -5.80
2005 ANA 321 5.99 265 -2.83 218 5 62 -10.44 474 10 0.99 -6.29
2005 NYA 264 -1.84 294 -0.73 107 5 32 -4.63 485 11 0.53 -6.66
2005 CIN 255 -0.11 242 0.34 104 12 35 -7.22 377 8 -0.01 -7.01
2005 CHN 314 2.97 252 -2.22 111 7 46 -14.03 422 8 5.45 -7.82
2005 MIL 297 0.79 239 -0.82 117 5 39 -6.69 383 12 -2.06 -8.78
2005 HOU 307 0.38 237 3.01 161 6 50 -8.54 413 11 -5.12 -10.27
2005 MIN 329 -1.07 241 -4.78 147 5 49 -4.27 449 7 -1.16 -11.28
2005 BOS 255 -2.03 329 3.64 60 3 15 -0.19 501 7 -12.78 -11.36
2005 FLO 324 1.68 280 1.25 140 6 44 -5.78 447 10 -9.31 -12.16
2005 SFN 360 3.10 259 -5.95 107 7 42 -10.32 440 8 -0.20 -13.37
2005 BAL 295 -2.21 280 3.07 123 7 44 -9.89 436 11 -5.69 -14.73
2005 PIT 287 2.40 265 -4.23 105 5 35 -8.63 458 13 -5.53 -15.99
2005 PHI 302 -1.65 304 -2.37 144 7 34 2.17 447 18 -16.35 -18.20
2005 SDN 298 0.03 297 -1.23 153 12 56 -12.36 427 13 -6.51 -20.07
2005 LAN 312 -3.00 255 0.19 95 4 39 -9.71 396 12 -9.25 -21.78
2005 WAS 326 -0.18 237 0.58 97 10 55 -22.49 392 7 -4.42 -26.50
A quick glance here reveals that most teams are net losers in the world of baserunning almost always because of their negative EqSBR totals. Simply put, teams typically do not gain anything from using the stolen base as a general purpose weapon. It is obviously effective in strategic situations (although the authors of The Book found that disruptive baserunners also cost the batter in terms of overall productivity) but as a general rule most teams would be better off not encouraging the stolen base. For what it's worth the EqSBR numbers here also include busted hit and run plays since there is no way to distinguish them from regular stolen base attempts. EqSBR also includes pickoffs which drags the numbers down as well.
The second part of the article looked at the various metrics in terms of player age to get a feel for how baserunning is affected as players get older. I'll summarize the findings in the following graph that shows each metric and the it's rate by age. EqAAR, EqGAR, and EqHAR are all measured in terms of the rate statistic that was developed while EqSBR is measured in terms of runs per opportunitiy. I've also calcualted the total runs per opportunity across all four metrics which you can see in the green line. The latter two use the secondary y-axis on the right (click on the image to see a larger picture).
The graph reveals what is intuitively obvious: baserunning skills decline with age. Advancing on hits declines the fastest with advancing on ground outs next and advancing on air outs last. EqSBR is more variable with age I would assume since as players age they run in both higher leverage and higher probability situations.
In the column I also looked at total contribution from baseunning (in other words by taking away the average performance in EqAAR, EqGAR, and EqHAR) to approximate how big a part of the offense baserunning is. You'll have to read the column for the details but the short answer is 13%.
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