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Friday, September 01, 2006

A Tale of Two (make that one) Third Baseman

My column on BP this week relates to the article I wrote last year titled "A Tale of Two Third Basemen on Mark Teahen and Sean Burroughs and whether there is a precedent for players like them gaining power as they mature. Well, Teahen seems to be making great leaps and bounds in that direction and so I wanted to take a look at how the turnaround has been effected and whether there is still precedent. In short, there is but Teahen, if he continues hitting at this clip, would be making one of the biggest leaps between his age 23 and subsequent seasons in terms of Normalized Isolated Power (NISO) of any player since 1945.

Here's the complete list of Teahen comparables I found (player who had between 400 and 600 at-bats plus walks before their Age-24 season, who had debuted after the 1945 season, and who had in those opportunities recorded a Normalized ISO between 65% and 100% of league average) and what they did after their age 23 season sorted by NISO.


Name Bats Seasons PA AVG SLUG ISO NISO
Todd Hundley B 11 3706 0.239 0.464 0.225 1.477
Tony Batista R 9 4090 0.251 0.466 0.215 1.341
Dave Duncan R 7 2560 0.223 0.373 0.150 1.290
Daryl Boston L 9 2313 0.253 0.425 0.172 1.284
Davey Johnson R 12 4772 0.262 0.412 0.150 1.269
Mike Sweeney R 8 4182 0.309 0.513 0.204 1.259
Torii Hunter R 6 3140 0.269 0.470 0.201 1.242
Dmitri Young B 8 3900 0.294 0.491 0.197 1.232
Dave Nilsson L 6 2585 0.291 0.480 0.188 1.188
Nick Johnson L 3 1218 0.278 0.457 0.179 1.136
Javier Valentin B 4 614 0.251 0.431 0.180 1.136
Bob Skinner L 13 4286 0.281 0.428 0.147 1.128
Felix Mantilla R 8 2467 0.267 0.414 0.147 1.102
Mike Lum L 13 3463 0.247 0.377 0.129 1.099
Kevin Elster R 11 2655 0.230 0.389 0.159 1.091
Charley Smith R 9 2094 0.239 0.374 0.135 1.081
Milton Bradley B 4 1693 0.281 0.451 0.170 1.074
Manny Jimenez L 6 568 0.246 0.376 0.130 1.072
Larry Herndon R 11 4755 0.273 0.414 0.141 1.050
Jerry Morales R 11 4386 0.263 0.388 0.124 1.045
Jerry White B 9 922 0.249 0.369 0.120 0.993
Ron Jackson R 10 2718 0.265 0.394 0.129 0.979
Ray Durham B 11 6237 0.282 0.439 0.157 0.979
Mike Andrews R 7 3000 0.257 0.373 0.116 0.978
Jose Castillo R 1 393 0.268 0.416 0.149 0.975
Marquis Grissom R 15 8427 0.273 0.418 0.145 0.967
Charlie James R 4 1039 0.258 0.376 0.118 0.952
Preston Ward L 10 1825 0.252 0.383 0.131 0.951
Al Woods L 6 1677 0.267 0.389 0.122 0.913
Don Buddin R 6 2257 0.241 0.362 0.121 0.900
Derrick May L 8 1904 0.272 0.404 0.132 0.887
Tony Gwynn L 18 9547 0.340 0.463 0.123 0.886
Danny Bautista R 11 2219 0.282 0.421 0.140 0.884
Jerry Mumphrey B 13 5028 0.291 0.402 0.110 0.882
Dick Green R 10 3851 0.236 0.341 0.104 0.877
Pete LaCock L 5 1480 0.267 0.379 0.112 0.874
Frank Bolling R 11 5620 0.256 0.368 0.112 0.871
Gerald Perry L 11 3020 0.263 0.375 0.111 0.863
Kenny Williams R 6 777 0.189 0.299 0.111 0.863
Gene Stephens L 10 1588 0.240 0.355 0.116 0.862
Chad Curtis R 11 4035 0.265 0.399 0.134 0.848
George Wright B 5 1699 0.238 0.355 0.117 0.847
Marvell Wynne L 8 2480 0.247 0.351 0.104 0.846
Owen Friend R 5 233 0.206 0.317 0.110 0.838
Jamie Quirk L 17 2023 0.243 0.352 0.110 0.823
Ben Davis B 5 1229 0.237 0.370 0.134 0.823
Cap Peterson R 3 815 0.227 0.321 0.094 0.810
John Hale L 2 320 0.182 0.288 0.106 0.807
Dale Berra R 7 2179 0.243 0.347 0.104 0.805
Jerome Walton R 9 1209 0.259 0.372 0.113 0.801
Julian Javier R 12 5564 0.258 0.356 0.097 0.801
Gene Richards L 7 3320 0.290 0.382 0.092 0.787
Benji Gil R 5 1203 0.248 0.373 0.125 0.776
Jim Sundberg R 16 6290 0.248 0.349 0.101 0.773
Willie McGee B 18 7663 0.295 0.396 0.102 0.759
Dave Hansen L 13 1636 0.271 0.387 0.115 0.746
Ruben Mateo R 4 445 0.234 0.351 0.117 0.743
Jerry May R 7 1233 0.221 0.306 0.085 0.726
Hosken Powell L 5 1534 0.262 0.353 0.091 0.682
Russ Nixon L 11 2072 0.260 0.346 0.086 0.666
Rafael Ramirez R 11 5260 0.263 0.344 0.081 0.662
Rick Burleson R 12 5154 0.272 0.360 0.088 0.659
Fred Kendall R 8 2326 0.242 0.319 0.078 0.651
Len Randle B 10 3821 0.264 0.342 0.077 0.630
Chris Gomez R 13 3979 0.257 0.355 0.098 0.618
Luis Polonia L 16 4742 0.293 0.382 0.088 0.612
Matty Alou L 14 5673 0.307 0.378 0.071 0.600
Dave Anderson R 8 1686 0.245 0.319 0.074 0.599
Elliott Maddox R 9 2655 0.267 0.337 0.070 0.588
Brent Gates B 6 1963 0.257 0.347 0.090 0.559
Paul Smith L 3 191 0.243 0.318 0.075 0.528
Todd Dunwoody L 4 454 0.211 0.297 0.086 0.526
Carlos Febles R 4 1290 0.244 0.328 0.083 0.512
Scot Thompson L 7 969 0.245 0.304 0.059 0.508
Wally Backman B 10 3118 0.276 0.337 0.062 0.491
Phil Gagliano R 10 1104 0.236 0.293 0.058 0.488
Kevin Bell R 2 229 0.185 0.250 0.065 0.485
Tom Umphlett R 2 706 0.218 0.268 0.050 0.415
Jose Valdivielso R 3 460 0.209 0.248 0.039 0.293
Tucker Ashford R 4 112 0.158 0.188 0.030 0.235
Rick Sofield L 1 110 0.176 0.196 0.020 0.168
Dave Hilton R 1 8 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Brandon Phillips R 1 9 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Donnie Scott B 1 19 0.158 0.158 0.000 0.000

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