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Thursday, November 15, 2007

Baserunning in a Minor Key

This week on Baseball Prospectus my focus on baserunning turns to the minor leagues as I present the leaders and trailers at the four top levels of the minors (AAA, AA, high and low A) and then an aggregate total to account for players who moved between leagues.

Braves fans may be interested to learn that Gorkys Hernandez fared particularly well and finished second in the minors by contributing +10.2 runs overall on the bases. He was excellent at going from first to third and second to home on hits (easily tops at the level in EqHAR), and stole bases at an 83% rate, good for +2.5 runs. On the other hand former Moneyball pinup Jeremy Brown was the clear winner of the "Triple-A Plodder Award", giving up 8.8 runs, 7.6 of those while attempting, or not attempting, to advance on hits (EqHAR). His total in that category was almost 2.5runs worse than anyone else at his level as he managed to get thrown out four of the six times he tried to advance on hits in 30 opportunities.

I thought it might also be interesting to take a look at how a few of the other top prospects going into 2007 fared. So below we have a table of those players who made it into the top 20 of Baseball America's Top Prospects list published at the end of February.


Name Team Lg Opps EqGAR Opps EqSBR Opps EqAAR Opps EqHAR Opps EqOAR EqRuns
Andrew McCutchen ALT EAS 33 1.0 18 1.8 19 -0.1 38 1.3 260 -0.4 3.6
Andrew McCutchen IND INT 3 0.2 9 0.5 3 -0.1 2 0.4 40 0.1 1.0
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Andy LaRoche LAN MJ 4 0.0 3 0.1 0 0.0 9 0.7 59 -0.1 0.8
Andy LaRoche LVG PCL 11 0.5 7 -1.1 16 0.8 22 0.9 153 -0.5 0.8
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Brandon Wood ANA MJ 2 0.1 0 0.0 1 0.0 0 0.0 10 0.0 0.0
Brandon Wood SLC PCL 16 0.2 13 1.1 19 0.5 35 1.9 236 0.1 3.7
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Cameron Maybin ESW EAS 1 0.0 0 0.0 3 0.0 2 0.1 18 -0.1 0.0
Cameron Maybin LAK FSL 18 1.2 32 0.0 18 0.6 27 0.4 192 0.1 2.4
Cameron Maybin TGR GCL 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 6 -0.1 -0.1
Cameron Maybin DET MJ 2 -0.2 5 0.8 0 0.0 3 0.4 26 -0.1 1.0
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Evan Longoria DUB INT 3 -0.2 0 0.0 5 -0.7 11 1.2 61 -0.3 0.0
Evan Longoria MON SOU 21 -0.2 4 0.6 23 1.2 44 0.8 257 -1.2 1.2
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Jay Bruce SAR FSL 7 0.4 10 0.3 15 -0.3 25 -0.1 145 -0.4 0.0
Jay Bruce LOU INT 10 -0.2 4 -0.6 10 0.4 14 -1.2 114 0.1 -1.5
Jay Bruce CNG SOU 2 -0.1 4 -0.2 5 0.2 6 0.4 43 -0.3 -0.1
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Reid Brignac MON SOU 16 -1.1 21 0.2 20 1.3 51 1.8 277 -0.4 1.9


While on the subject of baserunning I wanted to point out that I posted a comparison of the baserunning numbers published in the latest Bill James Handbook to my system both at the individual and team level on BP Unfiltered.

2 comments:

Frodo said...

i don't suppose you could run the numbers for my favorite prospect Colby Rasmus, could ya?

Dan Agonistes said...

Sure.

Colby Rasmus SPR TXS

EqGAR -0.89
EqSBR -0.50
EqAAR 0.45
EqHAR 1.67
EqOAR -0.47
EqRuns 0.27