Willie, Mickey, and Hank

My column this week on Baseball Prospectus titled "For the Sake of Completeness" ties up some loose ends with the baserunning framework by showing the results from more or less all Retrosheet years (1956-2007). To that end I not only look at the aggregate leaders and trailers and discuss the merits of Lou Brock and Dave Parker but also develop a new rate statistic that incorporates four of the five metrics. This new rate (Equivalent Base Running Rate or EqBRR) is a more "pure" measure of baserunning and using this I develop an aging curve for baserunning as a whole and by position and finally examine baserunning as a skill and its persistance across career halves.

You'll need to read the column to get the details but in researching the article I took a look at more than a few old-timers and so I thought I'd share the baserunning exploits of Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Mickey Mantle.

First, the Say Hey Kid.

 Year  Opps EqGAR  Opps EqSBR  Opps EqAAR  Opps EqHAR  Opps EqOAR  Opps EqBRR
 1956    22   0.3    36   1.3    30  -1.8    21   3.1   189  -1.0   298   2.0
 1957    24  -0.1    46  -1.1    43  -2.5    30   2.6   276   1.1   419   0.0
 1958    29   0.0    41   3.3    51   1.0    35   0.1   341   1.6   497   5.9
 1959    21  -0.3    37   1.1    27   1.0    54   3.3   308   1.1   447   6.2
 1960    20  -0.3    40  -0.7    35   1.9    45   1.6   308  -0.2   448   2.3
 1961    30   0.7    29  -2.2    38   0.4    37   2.5   308   0.4   442   1.7
 1962    26   0.4    25   1.0    44   2.2    53   0.5   313  -0.2   461   3.9
 1963    37   0.5    19  -2.1    34   2.0    50  -0.2   357   1.3   497   1.6
 1964    24   0.2    28   0.5    38   2.0    39   2.7   317   0.0   446   5.4
 1965    22   0.2    16   0.0    20   0.6    36  -0.7   284   1.5   378   1.5
 1966    23  -0.7     8   0.2    24  -0.9    34  -0.6   292  -0.5   381  -2.5
 1967    16  -0.6     7   1.2    19   0.7    38   2.5   235   0.9   315   4.7
 1968    17   0.8    18  -0.3    35   1.7    49  -0.4   269   0.4   388   2.3
 1969    15   0.0     8  -0.6    23   0.3    26   0.3   228  -1.0   300  -1.1
 1970    12   0.1     6   0.1    26   0.7    29   1.9   308   0.6   381   3.3
 1971    26   1.4    24   2.0    34  -0.1    33   0.8   308   0.5   425   4.6
 1972    22   0.3     9  -1.8    30  -0.8    21   0.9   144   0.4   226  -0.9
 1973    12   0.0     1   0.1    10   0.1    18  -1.4    80   0.1   121  -1.1
        398   2.9   398   2.0   561   8.5   648  19.4  4865   7.0  6870  39.9

Mays finished 23rd in aggregate EqBRR (and of course his 1951-1955 seasons are missing) and led the league in 1958 although doing better in 1959 and pretty well in 1964 and somewhat surprisingly 1971 thanks to some high percentage base stealing. In terms of pure baserunning Mays contributed 19% more runs than an average runner which is a little on the high side for centerfielders. He seemingly was pretty good at advancing on fly balls (EqAAR), fairly average on grounders (EqGAR) and held up his own both in advancing on hits (EqHAR) and balks, passed balls, and wild pitches (EqOAR).

Next, we have Hammerin' Hank.

 Year  Opps EqGAR  Opps EqSBR  Opps EqAAR  Opps EqHAR  Opps EqOAR  Opps EqBRR
 1956    32  -0.6     3  -1.7    30   0.5    32   0.6   234   0.6   331  -0.7
 1957    28   0.7     3  -1.5    37  -1.6    42   0.3   328   1.1   438  -1.0
 1958    44   1.1     4  -0.2    49  -0.5    48   1.7   321   0.3   466   2.4
 1959    25  -0.1     8   1.4    47   1.3    52   3.2   355  -0.6   487   5.2
 1960    24   1.3    23  -0.6    33  -0.6    31   1.8   228   0.2   339   2.2
 1961    23  -0.7    31  -0.4    32   1.4    37   1.2   274   1.7   397   3.2
 1962    34  -0.6    21  -1.2    34   0.6    39   0.8   296  -0.5   424  -0.9
 1963    21   0.5    39   2.7    51   0.2    45   3.7   359  -0.4   515   6.7
 1964    30   0.7    26   1.6    25   0.1    42   0.7   278   1.6   401   4.6
 1965    12  -0.2    29  -0.1    27   1.0    38   1.5   281   2.0   387   4.3
 1966    25  -0.3    24   1.5    39   1.8    53   1.6   323   0.3   464   4.8
 1967    28   1.6    24   0.1    38   1.6    45   1.3   297  -0.9   432   3.7
 1968    14   0.2    32   1.9    25  -2.7    36   1.6   226  -0.4   333   0.6
 1969    15  -0.5    21  -2.7    29   0.7    38   2.3   263   0.0   366  -0.2
 1970    21  -0.5    11   1.5    28   0.0    43  -0.5   277  -0.7   380  -0.2
 1971    15  -0.5     2   0.0    30   0.1    44  -0.7   262  -0.1   353  -1.2
 1972    18  -0.4     3   0.5    36   0.7    42  -0.1   265  -0.2   364   0.5
 1973     6   0.2     2  -0.4    19  -0.2    31  -0.7   174  -0.2   232  -1.2
 1974    12   0.3     1   0.1    17   0.1    20  -3.1   121  -0.5   171  -3.1
 1975    19  -1.0     1  -0.4    38   0.0    29   0.0   237  -0.5   324  -1.9
 1976     8  -0.1     1  -0.7    11  -0.6    11  -1.1    79  -0.4   110  -2.9
        454   1.1   309   1.4   675   4.1   798  16.1  5478   2.5  7714  25.2

Hank does pretty well overall and was well above average runner from 1958 through 1967. He apparently slowed considerably after that though which depressed his career total substantially. Had he simply treaded water those final few years he would have been at something like +35. He led the league in 1963 with his +6.7 runs and was consistently effective in advancing on hits (EqHAR).

Finally, The Mick.

 Year  Opps EqGAR  Opps EqSBR  Opps EqAAR  Opps EqHAR  Opps EqOAR  Opps EqBRR
 1956    24   0.1    13   0.7    44  -0.3    49   1.0   376   1.1   506   2.5
 1957    27  -0.4    20   1.4    49  -0.9    61   1.1   399   0.4   556   1.7
 1958    37  -0.1    23   1.9    49   0.2    57   2.9   375   0.1   541   5.0
 1959    22  -0.3    26   1.9    31   1.0    43   2.2   286  -0.9   408   4.0
 1960    26  -0.3    21  -0.3    46  -0.2    49   1.7   299   1.8   441   2.7
 1961    26   0.1    15   0.5    58   0.7    47   0.6   369   0.9   515   2.8
 1962    23  -0.7     8   1.5    39   0.1    44   0.6   290   0.6   404   2.0
 1963    13  -0.2     4  -0.9     9  -0.1    12   1.0    93  -0.4   131  -0.6
 1964    29  -0.2     9  -1.5    28   1.1    35   1.7   254  -0.9   355   0.1
 1965    12  -0.2     6  -0.2    22  -0.5    26  -0.2   173  -0.3   239  -1.4
 1966    11  -0.3     2  -0.4    20   0.3    20  -1.4   168   0.3   221  -1.4
 1967    20  -0.2     4  -1.3    33  -0.2    27  -1.0   237  -0.4   321  -3.0
 1968    23  -0.6     7   0.1    26   0.7    34   0.1   268  -0.3   358   0.0
        293  -3.3   158   3.5   454   1.9   504  10.3  3587   1.9  4996  14.4

After 1962 Mantle's knees didn't hold up and that is reflected in his running. Before that, though he was above average and inline with most centerfielders contributing plus runs from 1956 through 1962. Interestingly, he always did poorly on advancing on ground outs (EqGAR) but could seemingly take the extra base on hits (EqHAR).