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Sunday, January 06, 2008

Will Raines Run into the Hall?

Probably not but Dan Rosenheck of the New York Times makes a case today in his Keeping Score column titled "Raines Could Slide Safely Into the Hall on First Try" based in part on my baserunning metrics. From everything I've read and am hearing Raines will garner roughly 50-55% of the vote and will fall short of the 75% required for induction into the Hall of Fame announced next Tuesday.

From all accounts it appears Goose Gossage is in, Bert Blyleven is likely (on that score I heard an Sports Illustrated writer interviewed on MLB.com the other day crediting Rich Lederer and the internet for boosting Blyleven's candidacy in the past few years although he mistakenly associated Rich with Baseball Musings and not Baseball Analysts) and Jim Rice and Andre Dawson are very close. In my opinion Rice is not a Hall of Famer and I'll admit that I'm not unbiased on Dawson since I have a soft spot for "The Hawk" having watched him so much and rooted for him so often as a member of the Cubs in the 1980s.

But in getting back to Raines Rosencheck makes the point that Raines, primarily by virtue of his extremely high stolen base percentage in an era where stolen base percentages were lower, contributed over 100 runs or 10 additional wins with his legs when measured by Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EqBRR) which is a total of all five of the core baserunning metrics. Here are his numbers sans 1999.


Year Team Opps EqGAR Opps EqSBR Opps EqAAR Opps EqHAR Opps EqOAR Opps EqBRR
1979 MON 3 0.1 2 0.4 1 0.0 0 0.0 11 0.2 17 0.6
1980 MON 1 0.0 6 0.1 7 -0.2 2 0.0 17 -0.1 33 -0.2
1981 MON 31 1.0 84 5.8 26 0.3 20 -0.8 224 0.9 385 7.3
1982 MON 55 3.3 97 5.7 50 -0.2 32 1.2 392 0.1 626 10.1
1983 MON 71 0.9 113 7.6 66 1.8 46 2.7 466 0.6 762 13.6
1984 MON 49 -0.8 86 9.2 56 -1.7 48 1.8 431 -1.1 670 7.3
1985 MON 41 1.6 82 9.4 72 0.8 55 -0.6 476 0.0 726 11.2
1986 MON 46 -1.4 81 9.2 52 0.7 38 0.4 416 0.1 633 9.0
1987 MON 31 -0.5 57 7.2 41 0.3 48 2.5 390 0.9 567 10.4
1988 MON 29 0.1 40 2.4 35 0.1 27 0.0 256 0.7 387 3.2
1989 MON 40 0.8 49 1.4 48 2.1 34 1.2 326 -1.6 497 3.9
1990 MON 20 0.6 63 -0.2 35 1.1 36 1.1 260 0.9 414 3.5
1991 CHA 45 0.6 66 -0.6 47 -0.4 55 1.5 403 0.6 616 1.7
1992 CHA 41 0.3 50 5.3 66 1.5 75 3.0 437 0.1 669 10.1
1993 CHA 47 1.2 29 0.6 36 1.4 30 0.7 303 1.1 445 5.0
1994 CHA 21 -0.2 13 2.1 35 0.0 38 1.7 268 -0.7 375 3.1
1995 CHA 23 -0.1 15 1.1 53 -0.6 48 0.4 388 -0.9 527 -0.1
1996 NYA 10 -0.4 11 0.7 22 0.2 29 0.4 153 -0.7 225 0.2
1997 NYA 23 0.2 13 -1.0 24 0.8 23 1.5 173 1.6 256 3.1
1998 NYA 14 0.2 11 0.0 21 -0.1 33 -0.8 192 0.5 271 -0.3
1999
2001 BAL 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 0.0 2 0.0
2001 MON 12 0.0 1 0.1 6 -0.2 8 -0.4 75 -0.1 102 -0.6
2002 FLO 5 0.1 0 0.0 3 0.1 8 -0.7 62 0.6 78 0.1
658 7.6 969 66.5 802 7.7 733 16.8 6121 3.8 9283 102.5


The interesting thing about Raines is that he contributed with his legs so consistently for so long not turning in a sub-par season until 1995 at the age of 35. In fact, at the age of 33 he contributed 10.1 runs primarily by stealing 45 of 51 bags for the White Sox in 1992 and turning in his best season advancing on hits and contributing +3 runs. At his peak (1982-1987) Raines contributed +10.3 runs on average over a six year span and average +7.4 runs over a 15-year span from 1981-1993. He led the league in EqBRR in 1981, 1982, 1983 and 1992. Of course 1981 should be pro-rated and in a full season that +7.3 translates to more like +10. While his peak contribution and the overall run value of his baserunning in and of itself doesn't make him a Hall of Famer, when combined with his overall productivity and when noted in comparison to players like Wade Boggs it certainly casts him a better light.

There's no doubt Raines did well on the bases but how did he stack up against the other great runners of his era? Let's start with Rickey Henderson.


Year Team Opps EqGAR Opps EqSBR Opps EqAAR Opps EqHAR Opps EqOAR Opps EqBRR
1979 OAK 34 -0.2 45 0.2 35 -0.4 26 0.0 222 -0.3 362 -0.8
1980 OAK 60 0.8 135 -0.6 51 2.1 72 2.7 477 -0.6 795 4.4
1981 OAK 31 2.4 87 -3.6 46 0.1 40 0.7 309 1.0 513 0.6
1982 OAK 47 4.1 176 -0.2 43 0.9 29 2.6 352 0.9 647 8.3
1983 OAK 35 0.9 132 7.8 56 1.3 41 0.1 345 1.6 609 11.7
1984 OAK 37 0.9 86 2.4 57 2.1 51 3.9 368 0.9 599 10.2
1985 NYA 44 2.6 97 9.8 70 1.0 48 3.1 404 2.3 663 18.8
1986 NYA 47 0.8 115 3.8 49 1.8 31 0.6 329 2.3 571 9.2
1987 NYA 34 -0.6 51 2.3 37 -1.1 26 1.8 236 -0.4 384 2.0
1988 NYA 51 2.3 114 9.0 50 1.3 51 -2.0 384 3.8 650 14.4
1989 NYA 25 0.0 41 -0.9 14 -0.2 28 0.1 141 1.2 249 0.1
1989 OAK 24 0.3 62 3.6 40 0.2 30 1.5 148 1.2 304 6.8
1990 OAK 44 0.7 82 4.9 45 -0.1 63 1.1 373 -0.2 607 6.5
1991 OAK 38 -0.1 79 1.6 43 -0.6 43 2.8 324 -1.0 527 2.6
1992 OAK 53 0.2 58 1.6 49 -1.0 34 2.9 312 -0.7 506 2.9
1993 TOR 14 -0.7 24 3.1 21 0.1 17 0.4 100 0.6 176 3.6
1993 OAK 32 -0.3 39 1.7 44 0.5 40 -0.8 226 0.3 381 1.5
1994 OAK 34 -0.8 31 0.3 38 0.9 43 2.6 259 0.4 405 3.4
1995 OAK 41 -0.3 46 -0.5 31 -0.4 34 0.5 256 -0.1 408 -0.9
1996 SDN 55 -0.6 55 -2.3 48 -1.1 61 2.5 402 0.8 621 -0.7
1997 SDN 19 0.0 35 1.0 40 0.2 39 1.7 192 -0.4 325 2.5
1997 ANA 4 -0.2 10 -0.5 4 0.2 8 0.5 16 0.2 42 0.2
1998 OAK 38 -0.5 74 1.9 41 -1.1 50 0.3 363 0.5 566 1.1
1999
2000 SEA 27 0.1 43 -2.3 32 1.3 26 0.3 212 -0.1 340 -0.7
2000 NYN 16 0.4 7 -0.6 8 0.2 8 -0.6 37 0.1 76 -0.5
2001 SDN 22 -0.3 33 0.3 36 -0.1 39 0.9 267 0.3 397 1.2
2002 BOS 20 -0.3 12 -1.0 19 -1.1 22 1.2 161 0.1 234 -1.1
2003 LAN 4 0.1 4 0.0 5 -0.4 5 0.0 45 0.0 63 -0.3
930 11.7 1773 42.9 1052 6.7 1005 31.2 7260 14.6 12020 107.1


Overall Henderson contributed five additional runs while playing in about 500 more games. In his peak seasons (1982-1988) Henderson was at +10.6 runs and averaged +7.6 from 1982 through 1993. He led the league in EqBRR in 1984, 1985, and 1988. Interestingly both Raines and Henderson were productive runners through the 1994 season which for Raines was his age 34 season and for Henderson age 35.

As noted by Rosencheck Henderson, although the career leader in stolen bases, actually contributed more in other areas like advancing on hits and passed balls etc. than did Raines. The following table compares the four elite baserunners of the 1980s in terms of percentage of career totals in each of the five metrics.


Name EqGAR EqSBR EqAAR EqHAR EqOAR
Raines 7.4% 64.9% 7.5% 16.4% 3.7%
Henderson 11.0% 40.0% 6.2% 29.1% 13.6%
Wilson 5.9% 52.3% 12.8% 23.8% 5.3%
Coleman 11.0% 55.9% 6.3% 15.3% 11.6%


Raines and Vince Coleman got the most out of their stolen bases while Henderson advanced on hits more frequently, Henderson and Coleman advanced on ground outs, and Willie Wilson did so on fly balls.

Moving on, let's look at Willie Wilson.


Year Team Opps EqGAR Opps EqSBR Opps EqAAR Opps EqHAR Opps EqOAR Opps EqBRR
1976 KCA 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 8 0.0 8 0.0
1978 KCA 16 1.6 59 1.6 25 -0.1 19 1.9 169 0.3 288 5.3
1979 KCA 46 2.1 99 9.2 39 0.7 46 2.8 333 0.9 563 15.7
1980 KCA 49 0.5 93 10.0 75 4.2 61 3.9 463 0.5 741 19.1
1981 KCA 29 -0.3 42 3.6 56 -0.6 40 0.5 309 0.5 476 3.7
1982 KCA 46 -0.6 48 1.2 50 1.2 39 1.6 382 0.2 565 3.6
1983 KCA 42 1.9 69 7.0 42 -0.6 39 1.4 340 1.5 532 11.2
1984 KCA 38 1.7 55 5.1 49 2.1 48 0.8 340 -0.1 530 9.7
1985 KCA 39 1.2 58 4.3 50 1.7 31 -1.1 315 -0.5 493 5.6
1986 KCA 25 0.1 44 2.4 50 1.2 36 0.0 337 -1.0 492 2.7
1987 KCA 60 0.4 69 7.1 47 0.6 36 3.9 369 0.7 581 12.6
1988 KCA 35 0.2 42 2.2 43 0.8 48 3.8 309 1.8 477 8.8
1989 KCA 18 -0.7 33 1.3 36 1.9 35 1.9 230 0.6 352 5.0
1990 KCA 14 -0.7 30 1.3 30 0.5 28 1.7 175 0.0 277 2.8
1991 OAK 18 -0.3 25 0.9 24 -0.1 19 1.0 185 -0.5 271 1.0
1992 OAK 22 0.1 36 -0.6 33 -0.3 28 0.7 246 0.2 365 0.1
1993 CHN 25 -0.3 9 0.2 16 0.7 17 1.0 122 0.5 189 2.1
1994 CHN 3 -0.5 1 0.2 4 0.1 4 0.1 19 -0.1 31 -0.2
525 6.4 812 56.9 669 13.9 574 25.8 4651 5.7 7231 108.7


Wilson recorded the highest single-season total in my database that goes back to 1970 with his +19.1 for the AL Champion Royals in 1980 and he average +9.1 runs from 1979 through 1988. His peak was spread out a little and he led the league in 1979 and 1980. Overall he has the highest career EqBRR value at +108.7 and so for an overall package just in terms of baserunning Wilson is probably the best of the bunch in the 1980s.

Finally, here are Vince Coleman's career totals.


Year Team Opps EqGAR Opps EqSBR Opps EqAAR Opps EqHAR Opps EqOAR Opps EqBRR
1985 SLN 43 1.2 147 10.7 41 0.7 51 0.6 383 -1.4 665 11.8
1986 SLN 57 0.0 135 11.0 35 0.3 32 0.9 368 4.2 627 16.4
1987 SLN 59 2.5 142 7.1 60 1.2 56 2.4 406 0.8 723 14.1
1988 SLN 44 0.3 119 4.1 37 0.9 45 0.9 370 -0.2 615 6.0
1989 SLN 59 1.0 84 3.5 47 -0.3 49 1.2 373 0.2 612 5.6
1990 SLN 38 0.5 100 2.7 34 -0.2 39 0.6 306 1.3 517 4.9
1991 NYN 28 0.8 54 -2.5 28 0.9 22 0.7 181 1.2 313 1.1
1992 NYN 20 1.9 37 -0.5 21 1.1 19 1.2 172 0.4 269 4.1
1993 NYN 31 1.6 53 -0.8 33 0.1 27 1.0 216 0.2 360 2.1
1994 KCA 34 -0.6 64 3.2 24 0.5 31 1.3 244 0.4 397 4.8
1995 SEA 10 -0.5 26 -0.6 20 -0.6 11 0.4 91 0.3 158 -1.0
1995 KCA 28 -0.9 36 0.2 19 -0.3 25 0.1 133 0.5 241 -0.4
1996 CIN 5 -0.1 14 1.0 10 0.2 8 -0.7 59 0.1 96 0.5
1997 DET 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0
456 7.7 1011 39.1 409 4.4 415 10.7 3303 8.1 5594 70.0


Coleman obviously had a peak that was more brief than the others and average +14.1 runs from 1985 through 1987 and led the league in 1986 and 1987. By 1995 at age 33 he was no longer a productive runner as he finished his career bouncing around from Kansas City, to Seattle, Cincinnati, and Detroit. Overall he contributed 30 fewer runs than the others.

When you look at these guys in terms of EqBRR per 550 opportunities they stack up this way:


Wilson 8.3
Coleman 6.9
Raines 6.1
Henderson 4.2

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