Will Raines Run into the Hall?

Probably not but Dan Rosenheck of the New York Times makes a case today in his Keeping Score column titled "Raines Could Slide Safely Into the Hall on First Try" based in part on my baserunning metrics. From everything I've read and am hearing Raines will garner roughly 50-55% of the vote and will fall short of the 75% required for induction into the Hall of Fame announced next Tuesday.

From all accounts it appears Goose Gossage is in, Bert Blyleven is likely (on that score I heard an Sports Illustrated writer interviewed on MLB.com the other day crediting Rich Lederer and the internet for boosting Blyleven's candidacy in the past few years although he mistakenly associated Rich with Baseball Musings and not Baseball Analysts) and Jim Rice and Andre Dawson are very close. In my opinion Rice is not a Hall of Famer and I'll admit that I'm not unbiased on Dawson since I have a soft spot for "The Hawk" having watched him so much and rooted for him so often as a member of the Cubs in the 1980s.

But in getting back to Raines Rosencheck makes the point that Raines, primarily by virtue of his extremely high stolen base percentage in an era where stolen base percentages were lower, contributed over 100 runs or 10 additional wins with his legs when measured by Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EqBRR) which is a total of all five of the core baserunning metrics. Here are his numbers sans 1999.

Year  Team    Opps EqGAR  Opps EqSBR  Opps EqAAR  Opps EqHAR  Opps EqOAR  Opps EqBRR
1979  MON        3   0.1     2   0.4     1   0.0     0   0.0    11   0.2    17   0.6
1980  MON        1   0.0     6   0.1     7  -0.2     2   0.0    17  -0.1    33  -0.2
1981  MON       31   1.0    84   5.8    26   0.3    20  -0.8   224   0.9   385   7.3
1982  MON       55   3.3    97   5.7    50  -0.2    32   1.2   392   0.1   626  10.1
1983  MON       71   0.9   113   7.6    66   1.8    46   2.7   466   0.6   762  13.6
1984  MON       49  -0.8    86   9.2    56  -1.7    48   1.8   431  -1.1   670   7.3
1985  MON       41   1.6    82   9.4    72   0.8    55  -0.6   476   0.0   726  11.2
1986  MON       46  -1.4    81   9.2    52   0.7    38   0.4   416   0.1   633   9.0
1987  MON       31  -0.5    57   7.2    41   0.3    48   2.5   390   0.9   567  10.4
1988  MON       29   0.1    40   2.4    35   0.1    27   0.0   256   0.7   387   3.2
1989  MON       40   0.8    49   1.4    48   2.1    34   1.2   326  -1.6   497   3.9
1990  MON       20   0.6    63  -0.2    35   1.1    36   1.1   260   0.9   414   3.5
1991  CHA       45   0.6    66  -0.6    47  -0.4    55   1.5   403   0.6   616   1.7
1992  CHA       41   0.3    50   5.3    66   1.5    75   3.0   437   0.1   669  10.1
1993  CHA       47   1.2    29   0.6    36   1.4    30   0.7   303   1.1   445   5.0
1994  CHA       21  -0.2    13   2.1    35   0.0    38   1.7   268  -0.7   375   3.1
1995  CHA       23  -0.1    15   1.1    53  -0.6    48   0.4   388  -0.9   527  -0.1
1996  NYA       10  -0.4    11   0.7    22   0.2    29   0.4   153  -0.7   225   0.2
1997  NYA       23   0.2    13  -1.0    24   0.8    23   1.5   173   1.6   256   3.1
1998  NYA       14   0.2    11   0.0    21  -0.1    33  -0.8   192   0.5   271  -0.3
1999
2001  BAL        0   0.0     0   0.0     0   0.0     0   0.0     2   0.0     2   0.0
2001  MON       12   0.0     1   0.1     6  -0.2     8  -0.4    75  -0.1   102  -0.6
2002  FLO        5   0.1     0   0.0     3   0.1     8  -0.7    62   0.6    78   0.1
               658   7.6   969  66.5   802   7.7   733  16.8  6121   3.8  9283 102.5

The interesting thing about Raines is that he contributed with his legs so consistently for so long not turning in a sub-par season until 1995 at the age of 35. In fact, at the age of 33 he contributed 10.1 runs primarily by stealing 45 of 51 bags for the White Sox in 1992 and turning in his best season advancing on hits and contributing +3 runs. At his peak (1982-1987) Raines contributed +10.3 runs on average over a six year span and average +7.4 runs over a 15-year span from 1981-1993. He led the league in EqBRR in 1981, 1982, 1983 and 1992. Of course 1981 should be pro-rated and in a full season that +7.3 translates to more like +10. While his peak contribution and the overall run value of his baserunning in and of itself doesn't make him a Hall of Famer, when combined with his overall productivity and when noted in comparison to players like Wade Boggs it certainly casts him a better light.

There's no doubt Raines did well on the bases but how did he stack up against the other great runners of his era? Let's start with Rickey Henderson.

Year  Team    Opps EqGAR  Opps EqSBR  Opps EqAAR  Opps EqHAR  Opps EqOAR  Opps EqBRR
1979  OAK       34  -0.2    45   0.2    35  -0.4    26   0.0   222  -0.3   362  -0.8
1980  OAK       60   0.8   135  -0.6    51   2.1    72   2.7   477  -0.6   795   4.4
1981  OAK       31   2.4    87  -3.6    46   0.1    40   0.7   309   1.0   513   0.6
1982  OAK       47   4.1   176  -0.2    43   0.9    29   2.6   352   0.9   647   8.3
1983  OAK       35   0.9   132   7.8    56   1.3    41   0.1   345   1.6   609  11.7
1984  OAK       37   0.9    86   2.4    57   2.1    51   3.9   368   0.9   599  10.2
1985  NYA       44   2.6    97   9.8    70   1.0    48   3.1   404   2.3   663  18.8
1986  NYA       47   0.8   115   3.8    49   1.8    31   0.6   329   2.3   571   9.2
1987  NYA       34  -0.6    51   2.3    37  -1.1    26   1.8   236  -0.4   384   2.0
1988  NYA       51   2.3   114   9.0    50   1.3    51  -2.0   384   3.8   650  14.4
1989  NYA       25   0.0    41  -0.9    14  -0.2    28   0.1   141   1.2   249   0.1
1989  OAK       24   0.3    62   3.6    40   0.2    30   1.5   148   1.2   304   6.8
1990  OAK       44   0.7    82   4.9    45  -0.1    63   1.1   373  -0.2   607   6.5
1991  OAK       38  -0.1    79   1.6    43  -0.6    43   2.8   324  -1.0   527   2.6
1992  OAK       53   0.2    58   1.6    49  -1.0    34   2.9   312  -0.7   506   2.9
1993  TOR       14  -0.7    24   3.1    21   0.1    17   0.4   100   0.6   176   3.6
1993  OAK       32  -0.3    39   1.7    44   0.5    40  -0.8   226   0.3   381   1.5
1994  OAK       34  -0.8    31   0.3    38   0.9    43   2.6   259   0.4   405   3.4
1995  OAK       41  -0.3    46  -0.5    31  -0.4    34   0.5   256  -0.1   408  -0.9
1996  SDN       55  -0.6    55  -2.3    48  -1.1    61   2.5   402   0.8   621  -0.7
1997  SDN       19   0.0    35   1.0    40   0.2    39   1.7   192  -0.4   325   2.5
1997  ANA        4  -0.2    10  -0.5     4   0.2     8   0.5    16   0.2    42   0.2
1998  OAK       38  -0.5    74   1.9    41  -1.1    50   0.3   363   0.5   566   1.1
1999
2000  SEA       27   0.1    43  -2.3    32   1.3    26   0.3   212  -0.1   340  -0.7
2000  NYN       16   0.4     7  -0.6     8   0.2     8  -0.6    37   0.1    76  -0.5
2001  SDN       22  -0.3    33   0.3    36  -0.1    39   0.9   267   0.3   397   1.2
2002  BOS       20  -0.3    12  -1.0    19  -1.1    22   1.2   161   0.1   234  -1.1
2003  LAN        4   0.1     4   0.0     5  -0.4     5   0.0    45   0.0    63  -0.3
               930  11.7  1773  42.9  1052   6.7  1005  31.2  7260  14.6 12020 107.1

Overall Henderson contributed five additional runs while playing in about 500 more games. In his peak seasons (1982-1988) Henderson was at +10.6 runs and averaged +7.6 from 1982 through 1993. He led the league in EqBRR in 1984, 1985, and 1988. Interestingly both Raines and Henderson were productive runners through the 1994 season which for Raines was his age 34 season and for Henderson age 35.

As noted by Rosencheck Henderson, although the career leader in stolen bases, actually contributed more in other areas like advancing on hits and passed balls etc. than did Raines. The following table compares the four elite baserunners of the 1980s in terms of percentage of career totals in each of the five metrics.

Name         EqGAR  EqSBR  EqAAR  EqHAR  EqOAR
Raines        7.4%  64.9%   7.5%  16.4%   3.7%
Henderson    11.0%  40.0%   6.2%  29.1%  13.6%
Wilson        5.9%  52.3%  12.8%  23.8%   5.3%
Coleman      11.0%  55.9%   6.3%  15.3%  11.6%

Raines and Vince Coleman got the most out of their stolen bases while Henderson advanced on hits more frequently, Henderson and Coleman advanced on ground outs, and Willie Wilson did so on fly balls.

Moving on, let's look at Willie Wilson.

Year  Team    Opps EqGAR  Opps EqSBR  Opps EqAAR  Opps EqHAR  Opps EqOAR  Opps EqBRR
1976  KCA        0   0.0     0   0.0     0   0.0     0   0.0     8   0.0     8   0.0
1978  KCA       16   1.6    59   1.6    25  -0.1    19   1.9   169   0.3   288   5.3
1979  KCA       46   2.1    99   9.2    39   0.7    46   2.8   333   0.9   563  15.7
1980  KCA       49   0.5    93  10.0    75   4.2    61   3.9   463   0.5   741  19.1
1981  KCA       29  -0.3    42   3.6    56  -0.6    40   0.5   309   0.5   476   3.7
1982  KCA       46  -0.6    48   1.2    50   1.2    39   1.6   382   0.2   565   3.6
1983  KCA       42   1.9    69   7.0    42  -0.6    39   1.4   340   1.5   532  11.2
1984  KCA       38   1.7    55   5.1    49   2.1    48   0.8   340  -0.1   530   9.7
1985  KCA       39   1.2    58   4.3    50   1.7    31  -1.1   315  -0.5   493   5.6
1986  KCA       25   0.1    44   2.4    50   1.2    36   0.0   337  -1.0   492   2.7
1987  KCA       60   0.4    69   7.1    47   0.6    36   3.9   369   0.7   581  12.6
1988  KCA       35   0.2    42   2.2    43   0.8    48   3.8   309   1.8   477   8.8
1989  KCA       18  -0.7    33   1.3    36   1.9    35   1.9   230   0.6   352   5.0
1990  KCA       14  -0.7    30   1.3    30   0.5    28   1.7   175   0.0   277   2.8
1991  OAK       18  -0.3    25   0.9    24  -0.1    19   1.0   185  -0.5   271   1.0
1992  OAK       22   0.1    36  -0.6    33  -0.3    28   0.7   246   0.2   365   0.1
1993  CHN       25  -0.3     9   0.2    16   0.7    17   1.0   122   0.5   189   2.1
1994  CHN        3  -0.5     1   0.2     4   0.1     4   0.1    19  -0.1    31  -0.2
               525   6.4   812  56.9   669  13.9   574  25.8  4651   5.7  7231 108.7

Wilson recorded the highest single-season total in my database that goes back to 1970 with his +19.1 for the AL Champion Royals in 1980 and he average +9.1 runs from 1979 through 1988. His peak was spread out a little and he led the league in 1979 and 1980. Overall he has the highest career EqBRR value at +108.7 and so for an overall package just in terms of baserunning Wilson is probably the best of the bunch in the 1980s.

Finally, here are Vince Coleman's career totals.

Year  Team    Opps EqGAR  Opps EqSBR  Opps EqAAR  Opps EqHAR  Opps EqOAR  Opps EqBRR
1985  SLN       43   1.2   147  10.7    41   0.7    51   0.6   383  -1.4   665  11.8
1986  SLN       57   0.0   135  11.0    35   0.3    32   0.9   368   4.2   627  16.4
1987  SLN       59   2.5   142   7.1    60   1.2    56   2.4   406   0.8   723  14.1
1988  SLN       44   0.3   119   4.1    37   0.9    45   0.9   370  -0.2   615   6.0
1989  SLN       59   1.0    84   3.5    47  -0.3    49   1.2   373   0.2   612   5.6
1990  SLN       38   0.5   100   2.7    34  -0.2    39   0.6   306   1.3   517   4.9
1991  NYN       28   0.8    54  -2.5    28   0.9    22   0.7   181   1.2   313   1.1
1992  NYN       20   1.9    37  -0.5    21   1.1    19   1.2   172   0.4   269   4.1
1993  NYN       31   1.6    53  -0.8    33   0.1    27   1.0   216   0.2   360   2.1
1994  KCA       34  -0.6    64   3.2    24   0.5    31   1.3   244   0.4   397   4.8
1995  SEA       10  -0.5    26  -0.6    20  -0.6    11   0.4    91   0.3   158  -1.0
1995  KCA       28  -0.9    36   0.2    19  -0.3    25   0.1   133   0.5   241  -0.4
1996  CIN        5  -0.1    14   1.0    10   0.2     8  -0.7    59   0.1    96   0.5
1997  DET        0   0.0     0   0.0     0   0.0     0   0.0     1   0.0     1   0.0
               456   7.7  1011  39.1   409   4.4   415  10.7  3303   8.1  5594  70.0

Coleman obviously had a peak that was more brief than the others and average +14.1 runs from 1985 through 1987 and led the league in 1986 and 1987. By 1995 at age 33 he was no longer a productive runner as he finished his career bouncing around from Kansas City, to Seattle, Cincinnati, and Detroit. Overall he contributed 30 fewer runs than the others.

When you look at these guys in terms of EqBRR per 550 opportunities they stack up this way:

Wilson    8.3
Coleman   6.9
Raines    6.1
Henderson 4.2