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Tuesday, September 21, 2004

First Pitch Redux

In a previous post I included some data from Dave Smith at Retrosheet about swinging at the first pitch. Here are the highest and lowest percentages for 2003 regular players (defined as players with 300 plate appearances) also provided by Smith.

Highest
Nomar Garciaparra 52.6
Vinny Castilla 49.5
Vladimir Guerrero 47.8
Jacques Jones 45.8
Andruw Jones 42.5
Randall Simon 42.5
A.J. Pierzynski 42.2
Craig Wilson 41.6
Austin Kearns 40.5
Brandon Phillips 40.2

Lowest
Scott Hatteberg 5.8
Jason Kendall 7.5
Todd Zeile 7.6
Mark Ellis 7.7
Johnny Damon 8.4
Craig Counsell 8.5
Bobby Abreu 8.9
Dave Roberts 10.0
Aaron Guiel 10.0
David Eckstein 10.1

Along with some other notables:

Derek Jeter 35.6
Jim Thome 32.1
Albert Pujols 26.3
Alex Rodriguez 25.6
Ichiro Suzuki 24.3
Barry Bonds 23.6
Frank Thomas 15.6

Note that the average for regular players is 26.5% and for all players 27.3%.

One of the interesting questions that came up on SABR-L is whether the parity (both OPS values were .759) between first pitch swingers and first pitch takers simply reveals that each strategy is equally effective and that hitters therefore play to their strengths. In other words, perhaps you can't really say that taking the first pitch is any "better" than not taking the pitch.

Another way of looking at the split data posted earlier suggested by Cyril Morong is to try and calculate how many runs created per 27 outs (((H+BB)*(TB)/(AB+BB))/(AB-H))*27) each represents using the most basic formula. If a typical hitter was given 600 plate appearances you would get:


BA OA SA OPS H BB TB RC RC/27
Swing 0.282 0.302 0.457 0.759 164 17 266 80.6 5.20
NoSwing 0.259 0.346 0.413 0.759 137 72 219 75.6 5.20


So whether you swing or not on the first pitch you end up with exactly the same amount of production, 5.20 RC/27 outs. First pitch swingers actually produce 6.5% more runs but use up 26 more in the process which brings them in line. So this also confirms that it is a wash and that OPS tracks very well with other run creation formulas.

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