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Thursday, June 01, 2006

Big Plays and Big Comebacks

Just a heads up that I have two new articles on BP this week. The first, Quantifying High Impact Performances takes a look at the biggest impact plays of 2005 using the Win Expectancy (WX) Framework. It turns out that the biggest plays typically result in a turnaround of about 70% and that the vast majority of such plays are walk-off homeruns.

The second article, Quantifying the Comeback, looks at the biggest comebacks from the WX perspective since 1970 (excluding 1999). Not surpisingly, the Indians Auguest 5, 2001 comeback from 12-0 was the winner as their low point was .0256% with two outs in the bottom of the 7th and trailing 14-3.

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