Fear and Loathing in Wrigleyville

I sat down to enjoy a lazy Father's Day and watch Mark Prior's first start of the season on WGN. My afternoon was all but ruined after a lengthy top of the first in which Prior gave up six runs, three homeruns, made an error, and threw 39 pitches (his limit for the day was said to be 90 pitches). What I found most disturbing was that Prior clearly had no conception of how his breaking ball was working and as a result had to throw a succession of very straight 92 mph fastballs that were hit all over the yard. The disappointment was compounded by the Cubs allowing Kenny Rogers to get out of the first on eight pitches. Well, with Juan Pierre and Tony Womack as the first two hitters it wasn't really that surprising.

Interestingly, Prior had never given up a run in his first starts after coming off the disabled list (and he's done that several times as we all painfully know). Broadcaster Bob Brenly also noted that Prior's pitch counts were up last season because of his tendency to nibble. In watching Prior today it's not hard to understand why he feels the need to do so. His fastball simply has very little movement and when he misses with his breaking ball, he misses badly making it obvious what he'll throw when behind in the count. In 2005 almost 15% of opposing hitter's plate appearances against Prior ended at a 3-2 count whereas for Greg Maddux it was 8%. The following table shows those pitchers in 2005 who ran 50 or more full counts and the percentage of plate appearances that represents. As you can see Prior is in the top 16% or so although Zambrano is even higher.

                    3-2Count TotalPA    Pct
Ugueth Urbina             69     343   20.1%
Chan Ho Park             142     725   19.6%
Scott Eyre                54     283   19.1%
Al Leiter                131     689   19.0%
Ron Villone               53     296   17.9%
Erik Bedard              108     622   17.4%
Wade Miller               74     429   17.2%
Gil Meche                112     662   16.9%
Francisco Cordero         53     314   16.9%
Darrell May               52     312   16.7%
Andrew Sisco              56     339   16.5%
Hector Carrasco           61     371   16.4%
Joaquin Benoit            61     377   16.2%
Mike Wood                 86     532   16.2%
Oliver Perez              78     483   16.1%
Kyle Davies               66     409   16.1%
JP Howell                 55     344   16.0%
Giovanni Carrara          53     336   15.8%
Scot Shields              62     394   15.7%
Livan Hernandez          172    1094   15.7%
Aaron Heilman             70     451   15.5%
Scott Kazmir             130     844   15.4%
Tony Armas                71     466   15.2%
Carlos Zambrano          284    1864   15.2%
Barry Zito               146     980   14.9%
Daniel Cabrera           108     742   14.6%
Doug Davis               140     965   14.5%
Orlando Hernandez         86     594   14.5%
Kazuhisa Ishii            60     415   14.5%
Jason Schmidt            114     792   14.4%
Mark Prior               102     713   14.3%
Chris Young              102     719   14.2%
John Lackey              131     931   14.1%
Seth McClung             146    1040   14.0%
Scott Downs               58     414   14.0%
Vicente Padilla           92     662   13.9%
Russ Ortiz                78     563   13.9%
Luke Hudson               55     398   13.8%
Woody Williams            98     710   13.8%
Noah Lowry               242    1780   13.6%
Adam Eaton                79     582   13.6%
Jeff Fassero              54     398   13.6%
Robinson Tejeda           51     379   13.5%
Josh Beckett             100     745   13.4%
Victor Santos             88     657   13.4%
Roger Clemens            114     852   13.4%
Jake Peavy               112     840   13.3%
C.C. Sabathia            111     843   13.2%
Brad Hennessey            70     536   13.1%
Ervin Santana             78     599   13.0%
Jason Marquis            116     892   13.0%
Kris Benson               98     757   12.9%
Aaron Sele                69     533   12.9%
Kirk Rueter               64     498   12.9%
Brett Myers              120     934   12.8%
Glendon Rusch             85     663   12.8%
Hideo Nomo                62     484   12.8%
Mike Mussina             303    2367   12.8%
Brandon Claussen         192    1500   12.8%
Jerome Williams           69     548   12.6%
Brad Penny                95     760   12.5%
Runelvys Hernandez        91     734   12.4%
Aaron Harang             112     907   12.3%
Shawn Chacon              83     673   12.3%
Jose Lima                 97     797   12.2%
Mike Maroth              111     914   12.1%
Kip Wells                104     857   12.1%
Matt Clement             103     852   12.1%
Chris Capuano            118     977   12.1%
Zack Greinke             102     848   12.0%
Shawn Estes              130    1084   12.0%
Mark Redman               91     766   11.9%
Bronson Arroyo           106     893   11.9%
Jamie Moyer              107     903   11.8%
A.J. Burnett             108     916   11.8%
Rich Harden               62     527   11.8%
Victor Zambrano          184    1572   11.7%
Dan Haren                108     924   11.7%
Dave Bush                 70     599   11.7%
Kenny Rogers              97     831   11.7%
Dave Williams             71     610   11.6%
Casey Fossum             172    1490   11.5%
Byung-Hyun Kim            81     702   11.5%
Kirk Saarloos             81     703   11.5%
Kyle Lohse                89     785   11.3%
Rodrigo Lopez            107     949   11.3%
Esteban Loaiza           104     923   11.3%
Wandy Rodriguez           65     579   11.2%
Claudio Vargas            67     598   11.2%
Bruce Chen               192    1716   11.2%
Jose Contreras           102     912   11.2%
John Patterson            95     859   11.1%
Julian Tavarez            62     566   11.0%
Jeff Francis              94     859   10.9%
Joe Blanton               93     850   10.9%
Tom Glavine               99     912   10.9%
Ted Lilly                 63     581   10.8%
Gustavo Chacin            97     895   10.8%
Jarrod Washburn           81     750   10.8%
Ryan Drese                65     602   10.8%
Derek Lowe               104     964   10.8%
Tomo Ohka                 85     794   10.7%
Tomokazu Ohka             85     794   10.7%
Kevin Millwood            89     836   10.6%
Jon Garland               97     912   10.6%
Bartolo Colon             97     914   10.6%
DJ Carrasco               56     529   10.6%
Ben Sheets                69     653   10.6%
Jorge Sosa                63     599   10.5%
Josh Fogg                 80     762   10.5%
Ricardo Rodriguez         54     516   10.5%
Horacio Ramirez           91     874   10.4%
Brett Tomko               87     837   10.4%
Mark Hendrickson          84     810   10.4%
Javier Vazquez            95     918   10.3%
Chris Carpenter           99     966   10.2%
Steve Kline               56     548   10.2%
Dontrelle Willis          99     969   10.2%
Brandon Backe             68     670   10.1%
Joel Pineiro              85     840   10.1%
Ryan Franklin             86     850   10.1%
Jeff Suppan               86     853   10.1%
Brian Moehler             72     715   10.1%
Sidney Ponson             62     617   10.0%
Mark Mulder               89     892   10.0%
Andy Pettitte             88     887    9.9%
Cliff Lee                 84     853    9.8%
Tim Hudson                82     838    9.8%
Jeremy Bonderman          80     820    9.8%
DJ Houlton                58     598    9.7%
Jason Jennings            54     566    9.5%
Pedro Astacio             53     557    9.5%
Jeff Weaver               91     959    9.5%
Freddy Garcia             93     986    9.4%
Scott Elarton             74     789    9.4%
Johan Santana             86     928    9.3%
Roy Halladay              53     572    9.3%
Jake Westbrook            85     918    9.3%
Jason Johnson             85     925    9.2%
Matt Morris               76     829    9.2%
Jamey Wright              75     822    9.1%
Eric Milton               80     877    9.1%
Cory Lidle                74     818    9.0%
Joe Kennedy               65     721    9.0%
Joe Mays                  63     700    9.0%
Ramon Ortiz               70     781    9.0%
Tim Wakefield             88     983    9.0%
John Smoltz               85     953    8.9%
Dave Wells                71     798    8.9%
Pedro Martinez            76     861    8.8%
Nate Robertson            76     864    8.8%
Jon Lieber                78     929    8.4%
Brandon Webb              82     988    8.3%
Roy Oswalt                84    1016    8.3%
Mark Buehrle              81     989    8.2%
Doug Waechter             55     707    7.8%
Greg Maddux               75     983    7.6%
Randy Johnson             72     957    7.5%
Brian Lawrence            65     870    7.5%
Paul Byrd                 63     865    7.3%
Brad Radke                56     847    6.6%
Josh Towers               58     900    6.4%
Todd Jones                54     882    6.1%

In the second inning Prior showed better command and despite hitting Vance Wilson with two outs, was able to get out of the inning unscored on. Same basic story in the third before giving up yet another homerun in the fourth to make it 8-1 before being removed from the game. On the day he threw 88 pitches. The Cubs of course gave up eight homeruns for the second time this season and lost 12-3 for their sixth consecutive loss and their first winless homestand since 1997.

Having lost six in a row and on the verge of replacing the Pirates in the NL Central cellar, it doesn't get much worse than this. I continue to be amazed that quotes from the team and from their broadcasters don't seem to focus on the obvious – there simply is very little offensive talent on this team. Today's lineup featured Pierre, Womack, Jacque Jones, Henry Blanco, Matt Murton, and Ronny Cedeno. The only threats to actually hit the ball hard are a struggling Aramis Ramirez and Phi Nevin who recently lost his job with the Rangers. In the sixth inning today Len Casper and Brenly discussed the situation and seemed to be under the impression that it's all a matter of timing – when the pitching is good the hitting stinks and when they score runs they get poor starting pitching. Although I'm not sure what he meant, Brenly at one point indicated that the problems run very deep and that I think is much closer to the truth. It's really the architecture of the team that is to blame which falls squarely at the feet of GM Jim Hendry and manager Dusty Baker.

Which brings us to these nuggets of wisdom Dusty shared with the press as quoted on The Cub Reporter:

"I put Tony at the top because Juan was having trouble getting on base. … Juan’s a leadoff man, but Tony’s a leadoff man, too. It’s kind of a double leadoff man.”

“Tony Womack’s done pretty (darn) good, too, since he’s been here. … Not everybody wants power. I thought we wanted small ball for a while.”

“I love power. I love power and small ball. I like the option. It is a valid argument, but at the same time, some of my better defenses were with Womack out there, too, and speed. I’ll try to use them all if I can.”

Here's another small note. On Thursday Michael Barrett tweaked something taking a swing and as a result did not play all weekend. At the same time he's appealing his suspension meaning that if the suspension is upheld he'll likely miss over two weeks instead of just the 10 games. So why didn't he accept the suspension on Thursday night and begin serving it? Seems like they could have used up half the suspension in games in which he wouldn't have played anyway. When a player is suspended the team can't replace him on the roster and so Phil Nevin is the backup catcher (who caught in today's debacle) unless they want to send someone else down.