Introducing EqAAR

This week my BP column centered around creating a metric for crediting baserunners for advancing on outs in the air (such as sacrifice flies). You'll have to read the article for the full methodology but it relies on the Run Expectancy matrix for 2000-2005 and the probabilities of advancement given a number of situational factors including base/out state, hit type, and fielder.

In any case here are ratings in this new metric called Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR) for 2005 for those players with 25 or more opportunities. ExAAR is the expected number of runs given the opportunities and the context of those opportunities for the player. It should be noted that these do not take park factors into account which I think are probably pretty imporant for a metric like this.

You'll also notice that there really isn't much of a gain here, accounting for roughly a quarter of a win at both extremes. The reason for this, as I talk about in the column, is that advancing on outs just doesn't provide good baserunners with the opportunity to distance themselves from the crowd since even mediocre runners advance with great success, especially from third. I also wrote a bit about sacrifice flies in the spring over at THT and this is a continuation of sorts of that work but includes advancing from all bases.

Name                  Opps   ExAAR   EqAAR    Rate
Chone Figgins           39    6.04    1.79    1.30
Marcus Giles            41    5.94    1.75    1.30
Johnny Damon            54    6.66    1.66    1.25
Ichiro Suzuki           38    4.42    1.49    1.34
Luis Gonzalez           32    5.26    1.44    1.27
Jimmy Rollins           38    5.68    1.42    1.25
Michael Young           32    2.33    1.35    1.58
Mike Young              32    2.33    1.35    1.58
Craig Monroe            27    3.33    1.35    1.40
Jose Reyes              33    4.64    1.34    1.29
Ronnie Belliard         32    2.15    1.28    1.60
Albert Pujols           27    1.90    1.25    1.66
Juan Uribe              30    4.70    1.23    1.26
Willy Taveras           35    4.14    1.12    1.27
Jerry Hairston          26    2.18    1.11    1.51
Carlos Delgado          36    5.14    1.08    1.21
Nick Johnson            28    2.80    1.08    1.39
Juan Encarnacion        26    3.43    1.07    1.31
Jason Kendall           55    3.05    1.07    1.35
Rob Mackowiak           26    3.06    1.06    1.35
Greg Zaun               26    3.22    1.04    1.32
Jason Bay               29    4.77    1.02    1.21
Miguel Cabrera          39    4.74    1.01    1.21
Ray Durham              32    3.56    0.97    1.27
Shea Hillenbrand        33    3.87    0.93    1.24
Ryan Freel              26    4.28    0.93    1.22
Kevin Mench             29    3.22    0.88    1.27
Chipper Jones           26    1.31    0.83    1.64
Kevin Millar            25    4.91    0.82    1.17
Royce Clayton           32    3.90    0.82    1.21
Placido Polanco         35    4.01    0.82    1.20
Derek Jeter             47    2.92    0.80    1.28
Hank Blalock            42    1.81    0.74    1.41
Bobby Abreu             39    2.29    0.73    1.32
Joe Randa               27    3.06    0.73    1.24
Mark Teixeira           27    2.98    0.72    1.24
Aaron Rowand            33    3.81    0.72    1.19
Jack Wilson             33    4.99    0.69    1.14
Nick Green              26    2.91    0.69    1.24
David Dellucci          25    1.52    0.65    1.43
Grady Sizemore          38    4.69    0.62    1.13
Jason Varitek           26    1.43    0.61    1.43
David DeJesus           36    4.85    0.60    1.12
David Eckstein          41    3.30    0.58    1.17
Nick Swisher            25    3.16    0.57    1.18
Luis Gonzalez           28    1.30    0.55    1.43
Matt Holliday           26    2.36    0.54    1.23
Cesar Izturis           25    4.01    0.52    1.13
Troy Glaus              30    2.43    0.49    1.20
Miguel Tejada           31    3.47    0.49    1.14
Hideki Matsui           36    6.61    0.49    1.07
Travis Hafner           36    3.55    0.43    1.12
Darin Erstad            39    3.83    0.41    1.11
Jeromy Burnitz          35    3.38    0.41    1.12
Eric Chavez             28    1.78    0.39    1.22
A.J. Pierzynski         25    1.48    0.38    1.26
Luis Matos              28    3.11    0.37    1.12
Manny Ramirez           30    4.36    0.35    1.08
Melvin Mora             36    5.57    0.35    1.06
Alex Rodriguez          32    1.80    0.32    1.18
Brian Roberts           35    1.84    0.26    1.14
Scott Podsednik         40    4.35    0.26    1.06
Terrence Long           25    2.12    0.25    1.12
Brandon Inge            32    2.30    0.19    1.08
Garrett Atkins          26    0.60    0.17    1.29
Randy Winn              31    2.84    0.17    1.06
Brady Clark             36    5.01    0.16    1.03
David Wright            30    3.36    0.13    1.04
Brad Wilkerson          26    4.26    0.09    1.02
Gary Sheffield          34    1.65    0.06    1.04
Mark Loretta            29    2.47    0.02    1.01
Adrian Beltre           29    0.58   -0.04    0.92
Juan Pierre             30    6.96   -0.07    0.99
Alfonso Soriano         45    2.76   -0.07    0.97
Craig Counsell          39    4.07   -0.09    0.98
Paul Konerko            25    1.57   -0.10    0.94
Trot Nixon              29    2.06   -0.15    0.93
Dave Roberts            36    3.14   -0.15    0.95
Neifi Perez             25    1.79   -0.15    0.91
Mike Lieberthal         29    1.54   -0.19    0.88
Mark Ellis              38    4.48   -0.20    0.96
Raul Ibanez             27    2.50   -0.28    0.89
Todd Walker             26    2.10   -0.29    0.86
Matt Lawton             38    1.97   -0.30    0.85
Russ Adams              28    4.09   -0.35    0.92
David Bell              30    2.85   -0.38    0.87
Jacque Jones            29    4.28   -0.43    0.90
Victor Martinez         25    1.49   -0.43    0.71
Angel Berroa            32    1.84   -0.46    0.75
Angel M. Berroa         32    1.84   -0.46    0.75
Scott Hatteberg         25    2.39   -0.48    0.80
Jeremy Reed             25    2.00   -0.54    0.73
Jayson Werth            25    1.12   -0.57    0.49
Jeff Kent               31    1.59   -0.57    0.64
Shawn Green             27    2.88   -0.62    0.79
Julio Lugo              48    7.07   -0.62    0.91
Felipe Lopez            51    5.28   -0.63    0.88
Moises Alou             28    3.19   -0.65    0.80
Coco Crisp              34    0.78   -0.69    0.12
Pat Burrell             25    4.12   -0.69    0.83
Rafael Furcal           38    4.73   -0.71    0.85
David Ortiz             34    2.38   -0.73    0.69
Richie Sexson           30    3.31   -0.80    0.76
Orlando Cabrera         29    1.59   -0.81    0.49
Emil Brown              25    3.06   -0.85    0.72
Jay Payton              28    1.20   -0.86    0.28
Mark Kotsay             29    3.32   -0.86    0.74
Dan Johnson             26    2.55   -0.88    0.66
Carl Crawford           36    4.29   -0.88    0.79
Pedro Feliz             32    1.48   -0.97    0.35
Lyle Overbay            27    3.27   -1.00    0.70
Jason Giambi            29    2.51   -1.00    0.60
Preston Wilson          26    3.96   -1.00    0.75
Chase Utley             33    2.69   -1.13    0.58
Adam Kennedy            25    1.67   -1.13    0.32
Edgar Renteria          32    3.41   -1.16    0.66
Omar Vizquel            33    3.26   -1.19    0.64
Brian Giles             31    2.91   -1.21    0.58
Freddy Sanchez          28    2.54   -1.23    0.52
Ken Griffey Jr.         27    1.91   -1.43    0.25
Derrek Lee              35    3.31   -1.47    0.56
Luis Castillo           37    2.42   -1.68    0.31
Shannon Stewart         25    2.34   -1.74    0.25
Tadahito Iguchi         33    3.31   -2.00    0.40
Joe Mauer               30    2.74   -2.02    0.26
Vladimir Guerrero       28    3.99   -2.35    0.41