This week my BP column centered around creating a metric for crediting baserunners for advancing on outs in the air (such as sacrifice flies). You'll have to read the article for the full methodology but it relies on the Run Expectancy matrix for 2000-2005 and the probabilities of advancement given a number of situational factors including base/out state, hit type, and fielder.
In any case here are ratings in this new metric called Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR) for 2005 for those players with 25 or more opportunities. ExAAR is the expected number of runs given the opportunities and the context of those opportunities for the player. It should be noted that these do not take park factors into account which I think are probably pretty imporant for a metric like this.
You'll also notice that there really isn't much of a gain here, accounting for roughly a quarter of a win at both extremes. The reason for this, as I talk about in the column, is that advancing on outs just doesn't provide good baserunners with the opportunity to distance themselves from the crowd since even mediocre runners advance with great success, especially from third. I also wrote a bit about sacrifice flies in the spring over at THT and this is a continuation of sorts of that work but includes advancing from all bases.
Name Opps ExAAR EqAAR Rate
Chone Figgins 39 6.04 1.79 1.30
Marcus Giles 41 5.94 1.75 1.30
Johnny Damon 54 6.66 1.66 1.25
Ichiro Suzuki 38 4.42 1.49 1.34
Luis Gonzalez 32 5.26 1.44 1.27
Jimmy Rollins 38 5.68 1.42 1.25
Michael Young 32 2.33 1.35 1.58
Mike Young 32 2.33 1.35 1.58
Craig Monroe 27 3.33 1.35 1.40
Jose Reyes 33 4.64 1.34 1.29
Ronnie Belliard 32 2.15 1.28 1.60
Albert Pujols 27 1.90 1.25 1.66
Juan Uribe 30 4.70 1.23 1.26
Willy Taveras 35 4.14 1.12 1.27
Jerry Hairston 26 2.18 1.11 1.51
Carlos Delgado 36 5.14 1.08 1.21
Nick Johnson 28 2.80 1.08 1.39
Juan Encarnacion 26 3.43 1.07 1.31
Jason Kendall 55 3.05 1.07 1.35
Rob Mackowiak 26 3.06 1.06 1.35
Greg Zaun 26 3.22 1.04 1.32
Jason Bay 29 4.77 1.02 1.21
Miguel Cabrera 39 4.74 1.01 1.21
Ray Durham 32 3.56 0.97 1.27
Shea Hillenbrand 33 3.87 0.93 1.24
Ryan Freel 26 4.28 0.93 1.22
Kevin Mench 29 3.22 0.88 1.27
Chipper Jones 26 1.31 0.83 1.64
Kevin Millar 25 4.91 0.82 1.17
Royce Clayton 32 3.90 0.82 1.21
Placido Polanco 35 4.01 0.82 1.20
Derek Jeter 47 2.92 0.80 1.28
Hank Blalock 42 1.81 0.74 1.41
Bobby Abreu 39 2.29 0.73 1.32
Joe Randa 27 3.06 0.73 1.24
Mark Teixeira 27 2.98 0.72 1.24
Aaron Rowand 33 3.81 0.72 1.19
Jack Wilson 33 4.99 0.69 1.14
Nick Green 26 2.91 0.69 1.24
David Dellucci 25 1.52 0.65 1.43
Grady Sizemore 38 4.69 0.62 1.13
Jason Varitek 26 1.43 0.61 1.43
David DeJesus 36 4.85 0.60 1.12
David Eckstein 41 3.30 0.58 1.17
Nick Swisher 25 3.16 0.57 1.18
Luis Gonzalez 28 1.30 0.55 1.43
Matt Holliday 26 2.36 0.54 1.23
Cesar Izturis 25 4.01 0.52 1.13
Troy Glaus 30 2.43 0.49 1.20
Miguel Tejada 31 3.47 0.49 1.14
Hideki Matsui 36 6.61 0.49 1.07
Travis Hafner 36 3.55 0.43 1.12
Darin Erstad 39 3.83 0.41 1.11
Jeromy Burnitz 35 3.38 0.41 1.12
Eric Chavez 28 1.78 0.39 1.22
A.J. Pierzynski 25 1.48 0.38 1.26
Luis Matos 28 3.11 0.37 1.12
Manny Ramirez 30 4.36 0.35 1.08
Melvin Mora 36 5.57 0.35 1.06
Alex Rodriguez 32 1.80 0.32 1.18
Brian Roberts 35 1.84 0.26 1.14
Scott Podsednik 40 4.35 0.26 1.06
Terrence Long 25 2.12 0.25 1.12
Brandon Inge 32 2.30 0.19 1.08
Garrett Atkins 26 0.60 0.17 1.29
Randy Winn 31 2.84 0.17 1.06
Brady Clark 36 5.01 0.16 1.03
David Wright 30 3.36 0.13 1.04
Brad Wilkerson 26 4.26 0.09 1.02
Gary Sheffield 34 1.65 0.06 1.04
Mark Loretta 29 2.47 0.02 1.01
Adrian Beltre 29 0.58 -0.04 0.92
Juan Pierre 30 6.96 -0.07 0.99
Alfonso Soriano 45 2.76 -0.07 0.97
Craig Counsell 39 4.07 -0.09 0.98
Paul Konerko 25 1.57 -0.10 0.94
Trot Nixon 29 2.06 -0.15 0.93
Dave Roberts 36 3.14 -0.15 0.95
Neifi Perez 25 1.79 -0.15 0.91
Mike Lieberthal 29 1.54 -0.19 0.88
Mark Ellis 38 4.48 -0.20 0.96
Raul Ibanez 27 2.50 -0.28 0.89
Todd Walker 26 2.10 -0.29 0.86
Matt Lawton 38 1.97 -0.30 0.85
Russ Adams 28 4.09 -0.35 0.92
David Bell 30 2.85 -0.38 0.87
Jacque Jones 29 4.28 -0.43 0.90
Victor Martinez 25 1.49 -0.43 0.71
Angel Berroa 32 1.84 -0.46 0.75
Angel M. Berroa 32 1.84 -0.46 0.75
Scott Hatteberg 25 2.39 -0.48 0.80
Jeremy Reed 25 2.00 -0.54 0.73
Jayson Werth 25 1.12 -0.57 0.49
Jeff Kent 31 1.59 -0.57 0.64
Shawn Green 27 2.88 -0.62 0.79
Julio Lugo 48 7.07 -0.62 0.91
Felipe Lopez 51 5.28 -0.63 0.88
Moises Alou 28 3.19 -0.65 0.80
Coco Crisp 34 0.78 -0.69 0.12
Pat Burrell 25 4.12 -0.69 0.83
Rafael Furcal 38 4.73 -0.71 0.85
David Ortiz 34 2.38 -0.73 0.69
Richie Sexson 30 3.31 -0.80 0.76
Orlando Cabrera 29 1.59 -0.81 0.49
Emil Brown 25 3.06 -0.85 0.72
Jay Payton 28 1.20 -0.86 0.28
Mark Kotsay 29 3.32 -0.86 0.74
Dan Johnson 26 2.55 -0.88 0.66
Carl Crawford 36 4.29 -0.88 0.79
Pedro Feliz 32 1.48 -0.97 0.35
Lyle Overbay 27 3.27 -1.00 0.70
Jason Giambi 29 2.51 -1.00 0.60
Preston Wilson 26 3.96 -1.00 0.75
Chase Utley 33 2.69 -1.13 0.58
Adam Kennedy 25 1.67 -1.13 0.32
Edgar Renteria 32 3.41 -1.16 0.66
Omar Vizquel 33 3.26 -1.19 0.64
Brian Giles 31 2.91 -1.21 0.58
Freddy Sanchez 28 2.54 -1.23 0.52
Ken Griffey Jr. 27 1.91 -1.43 0.25
Derrek Lee 35 3.31 -1.47 0.56
Luis Castillo 37 2.42 -1.68 0.31
Shannon Stewart 25 2.34 -1.74 0.25
Tadahito Iguchi 33 3.31 -2.00 0.40
Joe Mauer 30 2.74 -2.02 0.26
Vladimir Guerrero 28 3.99 -2.35 0.41
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1 comment:
In any case here are ratings in this new metric called Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR) for 2005 for those players with 25 or more opportunities. ExAAR is the expected number of runs given the opportunities and the context of those opportunities for the player. It should be noted that these do not take park factors into account which I think are probably pretty imporant for a metric like this.
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