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Thursday, August 24, 2006

Introducing EqSBR

In my ongoing series on BP I've been writing about quantifying baserunning. This week I'll take a look at stolen bases and pickoffs and introduce a metric called Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR). As with the other metrics I've created this one uses the Run Expectancy matrix for 2000-2005 and then assigns run values to various stolen base attempts and pickoffs based on the starting base/out situation. And also as with the other metrics what we're trying to do is measure how many theoretical runs a player or team gained or gave up on the base paths in total in order to put this aspect of the game in perspective.

Here are the values for 2005 for players with 10 or more opportunities (stolen base attempts + pick offs).


Opps PO CS EqSBR
Alfonso Soriano 32 0 2 4.92
Johnny Damon 19 0 1 2.84
Kenny Lofton 24 0 3 2.64
Jason Bay 22 0 1 2.39
Rafael Furcal 57 1 11 2.36
Jimmy Rollins 50 3 9 2.24
Torii Hunter 30 0 7 2.18
Marcus Giles 18 0 3 2.04
Willie Bloomquist 16 1 2 1.74
Jose Reyes 77 2 17 1.73
Joe Mauer 14 1 2 1.60
Craig Biggio 12 0 1 1.55
Albert Pujols 19 1 3 1.54
Reggie Sanders 15 0 1 1.39
Julio Lugo 47 0 11 1.29
Ichiro Suzuki 42 1 9 1.23
Craig Counsell 33 0 7 1.22
Damian Jackson 17 1 3 1.18
Jacque Jones 16 0 4 1.03
Cliff Floyd 14 0 2 1.01
Russ Adams 11 0 2 0.90
Jayson Werth 14 1 3 0.83
Juan Pierre 75 1 18 0.82
Mike Cameron 13 1 2 0.65
Aaron Rowand 22 1 6 0.63
Carlos Lee 18 1 5 0.61
Orlando Cabrera 23 1 3 0.61
Cory Sullivan 15 0 3 0.58
Derrek Lee 19 1 4 0.55
Chase Utley 19 1 4 0.53
Raul Ibanez 10 0 4 0.39
Tony Womack 32 2 7 0.37
Joey Gathright 25 0 5 0.36
Royce Clayton 17 1 4 0.28
Antonio Perez 14 0 4 0.26
Adam Kennedy 24 1 5 0.26
Jason Ellison 20 0 6 0.22
Gary Sheffield 10 0 2 0.17
Carlos Beltran 22 0 6 0.14
Derek Jeter 17 0 5 0.09
So Taguchi 11 0 2 0.02
Rickie Weeks 17 1 3 0.01
Junior Spivey 12 0 3 0.01
Adam Everett 28 0 7 0.00
Willie Harris 14 1 4 -0.02
Jason Kendall 11 0 3 -0.04
Carl Crawford 58 4 12 -0.08
Maicer Izturis 12 0 3 -0.08
Hector Luna 12 0 2 -0.11
David Wright 22 0 7 -0.12
Miguel Cairo 15 1 4 -0.12
Vernon Wells 11 0 3 -0.20
Eric Hinske 12 0 4 -0.24
Vladimir Guerrero 13 1 2 -0.24
Chone Figgins 80 1 18 -0.30
Jack Wilson 10 0 3 -0.32
Eric Bruntlett 10 1 3 -0.36
Jermaine Dye 15 0 4 -0.40
Edgar Renteria 13 0 4 -0.43
Gary Jr. Matthews 12 1 3 -0.47
Gary Matthews 12 1 3 -0.47
Gary Matthews Jr. 12 1 3 -0.47
Nook Logan 31 3 9 -0.50
Alex Rodriguez 26 1 7 -0.53
Tadahito Iguchi 18 1 6 -0.57
Brian Giles 19 1 6 -0.58
Craig Monroe 11 0 3 -0.61
Alex Sanchez 13 0 5 -0.61
Covelli Crisp 22 1 7 -0.61
Coco Crisp 22 1 7 -0.61
Neifi Perez 12 0 4 -0.69
Lew Ford 18 0 6 -0.72
Corey Patterson 21 1 6 -0.81
Steve Finley 12 0 4 -0.85
Nick Punto 21 0 8 -0.87
Scott Podsednik 86 4 27 -0.92
Bob Abreu 40 2 11 -0.93
Bobby Abreu 40 2 11 -0.93
Bill Hall 25 1 7 -0.93
Billy Hall 25 1 7 -0.93
Willy Taveras 47 2 13 -0.93
Melvin Mora 10 0 4 -0.97
Pablo Ozuna 21 0 7 -0.99
Felipe Lopez 22 1 8 -1.01
Aaron Boone 13 1 4 -1.05
Eric Byrnes 10 1 3 -1.06
Darin Erstad 13 1 4 -1.08
Travis Lee 11 0 4 -1.12
Clint Barmes 10 0 4 -1.21
Ivan Rodriguez 11 1 4 -1.25
Luis Castillo 17 0 7 -1.28
Mark Loretta 12 0 4 -1.29
Emil Brown 14 3 4 -1.36
Jason Lane 10 2 4 -1.39
Jonny Gomes 14 0 5 -1.54
Eric Young 13 0 6 -1.59
Jeff DaVanon 17 0 6 -1.63
Grady Sizemore 33 1 11 -1.63
Ryan Freel 49 3 13 -1.67
Shawn Green 13 1 5 -1.73
Matt Holliday 19 2 5 -1.82
Preston Wilson 12 0 6 -1.90
Matt Lawton 28 1 10 -1.91
Rob Mackowiak 12 1 5 -1.96
Dave Roberts 35 1 13 -1.97
Omar Vizquel 35 2 12 -1.97
Dave Dellucci 10 2 5 -1.98
David Dellucci 10 2 5 -1.98
Shannon Stewart 12 0 5 -1.99
Angel Berroa 14 2 7 -2.09
Angel M. Berroa 14 2 7 -2.09
Mark Grudzielanek 14 0 6 -2.11
Mark Kotsay 11 1 6 -2.16
David DeJesus 11 1 6 -2.26
Juan Encarnacion 12 1 6 -2.30
Brandon Inge 14 1 7 -2.31
Reed Johnson 11 0 6 -2.31
Alexis Rios 23 0 9 -2.47
Alex Rios 23 0 9 -2.47
Cristian Guzman 12 1 5 -2.48
Aubrey Huff 13 1 8 -2.49
Brian Roberts 39 3 13 -2.62
Juan Uribe 11 1 7 -2.64
David Eckstein 19 0 8 -2.70
Cesar Izturis 16 0 8 -2.80
Chris Burke 17 1 7 -2.85
Morgan Ensberg 13 0 7 -2.90
Luis Matos 28 2 11 -3.06
Jerry Hairston 17 0 9 -3.32
Nick Johnson 12 1 9 -3.43
Randy Winn 30 1 12 -3.69
Jeremy Reed 23 1 12 -3.72
Juan Rivera 10 0 9 -3.76
Jeromy Burnitz 12 3 7 -4.02
Brady Clark 23 0 13 -4.20
Brad Wilkerson 19 2 12 -6.23

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