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Friday, August 04, 2006

Advancing in Context

My column this week at Baseball Prospectus refines the framework I'm developing for crediting baserunners with advancing on air outs by taking a look at how the park affects the results. For example, using data from 2000-2005 I was able to calculate an Air Advancement Park Factor (AAPF) for each outfield position for each of the 37 parks in use during that time.

For example, here is a graphical way of looking at Petco Park (which of course only had two years worth of data and so should be taken with a grain of salt and which, by the way, is the reason I calculated only a single park factor for each park rather than creating weighted versions for each year, and no, this doesn't take into account configuration changes in the parks like moving the fences in at Comerica and out at Kauffman Stadium).



As you can see this would indicate that Petco inhibits advancing on fly balls to left and right by 5% and 15% respectively while making it a bit easier (by 1%) when the ball is caught by the centerfielder. I then use these park factors to adjust the Equivalent Air Advancent Runs (EqAAR) runs I discussed in a recent post.

Because space didn't allow for publishing all of the park factors the following shows those AAPFs broken down by park and field along with the number of opportunities on which each is based. You'll see that fewer opportunities for parks for which I only have one or two years worth of data may skew the results (take a look at R.F.K for example). All park are listed by their most recent names (and a pox on those teams that change naming rights) while as mentioned in the column the 2003 and 2004 data for Montreal conflates Stade Olympique with Hiram Bithorn Stadium, hence they are treated as one park for this analysis while Stade Olympique for 2000-2001 is treated separately.


Park Opps Pos AAPF
--------------------------------------------------------
Ameriquest Field 564 7 1.03
Ameriquest Field 687 8 1.03
Ameriquest Field 566 9 1.04


Angels Stadium of Anaheim 532 7 1.00
Angels Stadium of Anaheim 704 8 0.99
Angels Stadium of Anaheim 548 9 1.07


Bank One Ballpark 425 7 1.06
Bank One Ballpark 657 8 1.07
Bank One Ballpark 565 9 1.04


Busch Stadium II 461 7 0.97
Busch Stadium II 647 8 1.00
Busch Stadium II 527 9 1.06


Cinergy Field 229 7 0.97
Cinergy Field 277 9 0.91
Cinergy Field 320 8 1.03


Citizen's Bank Park 164 7 0.90
Citizen's Bank Park 220 8 1.02
Citizen's Bank Park 157 9 0.98


Comerica Park 522 7 1.04
Comerica Park 723 8 1.01
Comerica Park 541 9 0.97


Coors Field 475 7 1.10
Coors Field 663 8 1.06
Coors Field 500 9 0.97


County Stadium 69 7 0.94
County Stadium 106 8 1.09
County Stadium 99 9 0.94


Dodger Stadium 371 7 1.12
Dodger Stadium 572 8 0.99
Dodger Stadium 449 9 1.05


Fenway Park II 449 7 0.87
Fenway Park II 653 8 0.99
Fenway Park II 535 9 0.98


Great American Ball Park 301 8 1.01
Great American Ball Park 260 9 1.01
Great American Ball Park 233 7 1.03


Hubert H Humphrey Metrodome 522 7 1.03
Hubert H Humphrey Metrodome 647 8 1.06
Hubert H Humphrey Metrodome 504 9 0.97


Jacobs Field 486 7 0.94
Jacobs Field 644 8 0.92
Jacobs Field 472 9 0.93


McAfee Coliseum 500 7 0.99
McAfee Coliseum 590 8 0.99
McAfee Coliseum 459 9 0.98


Miller Park 418 9 1.02
Miller Park 507 8 1.02
Miller Park 343 7 0.89


Minute Maid Park 344 7 1.04
Minute Maid Park 612 8 1.00
Minute Maid Park 503 9 1.06


Oriole Park at Camden Yards 572 7 1.06
Oriole Park at Camden Yards 700 8 1.02
Oriole Park at Camden Yards 507 9 0.92


Petco Park 214 8 1.01
Petco Park 178 7 0.95
Petco Park 180 9 0.85


PNC Park 410 9 1.14
PNC Park 400 7 0.94
PNC Park 514 8 0.97


Pro Player Stadium 446 7 0.96
Pro Player Stadium 602 8 0.96
Pro Player Stadium 478 9 0.98


Qualcomm Stadium 323 7 0.97
Qualcomm Stadium 326 9 0.88
Qualcomm Stadium 371 8 0.90


R.F.K. Stadium 85 7 1.43
R.F.K. Stadium 91 8 1.19
R.F.K. Stadium 100 9 1.06


Rogers Centre 459 7 1.03
Rogers Centre 646 8 1.03
Rogers Centre 516 9 1.09


Royals Stadium 572 7 1.05
Royals Stadium 729 8 1.01
Royals Stadium 585 9 1.04


Safeco Field 537 7 0.96
Safeco Field 709 8 0.97
Safeco Field 555 9 0.98


SBC Park 471 7 0.98
SBC Park 642 8 1.04
SBC Park 518 9 1.08


Shea Stadium 497 7 1.07
Shea Stadium 577 8 1.01
Shea Stadium 538 9 1.01


Stade Olympique 319 8 0.88
Stade Olympique 243 9 0.81
Stade Olympique 212 7 1.00


Stade Olympique/Hiram Bithorn Stad 129 7 0.92
Stade Olympique/Hiram Bithorn Stad 155 9 1.01
Stade Olympique/Hiram Bithorn Stad 184 8 0.98


Three Rivers Stadium 104 9 0.97
Three Rivers Stadium 102 8 1.05
Three Rivers Stadium 73 7 0.98


Tropicana Field 571 7 1.02
Tropicana Field 647 8 0.98
Tropicana Field 530 9 1.00


Turner Field 442 7 1.11
Turner Field 611 8 0.99
Turner Field 508 9 1.06


U.S. Cellular Field 503 7 0.95
U.S. Cellular Field 613 8 0.98
U.S. Cellular Field 523 9 1.01


Veterans Stadium 294 7 0.93
Veterans Stadium 310 9 1.02
Veterans Stadium 389 8 0.97


Wrigley Field 414 7 0.96
Wrigley Field 565 8 0.97
Wrigley Field 478 9 0.97


Yankee Stadium II 526 7 1.06
Yankee Stadium II 663 8 1.02
Yankee Stadium II 479 9 0.98

1 comment:

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