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Saturday, August 26, 2006

Skill and Variation

Phil Birnbaum reviews the baserunning series I've been writing at BP over at Sabermetric Research. I particularly appreciate his calling out my comments on true skill plus random variation which make up the results that I've published. I will likely be publishing the entire data set at some point so that more work can be done on sorting out the two.

1 comment:

Dennis Shea said...

While not exactly on topic, you might be interested to know that Juan Rivera appears to be closing in on a baserunning record. I can't find an official record for most consecutive times caught stealing, but Rivera is working on a streak of 12 straight and that's getting close to a record as far as I can tell.

Here's a list as complete as I can make since 1920:

Chris Cannizzaro 14, 1964-1970

Pete Runnels 13 (could be longer), 1951-52. Runnels started his career with 13 straight, and then was caught 4 more times in 7 attempts the next season, but the daily data is not available.

Eddie Yost 13, 1957-58

Zeb Terry 12 (could be longer), 1921. Zeb started 1921 with 12 straight before stealing a bag. In 1922 he went on to get nailed 11 times in 13 attempts, making him 3 for 27 over the two years. The daily data for 1920, when he was caught 16 times in 28 attempts, is not available.

Jay Buhner 12 1990-93

Some other possibilities, but don't have the daily data to check:
Charlie Jamieson, 5 SB in 30 attempts from 1928-29
Joe Sewell, 3 SB in 19 attempts in 1927
Red Kress, 6 SB in 28 attempts in 1930-31
Bill Knickerbocker, 7 SB in 33 attempts in 1935-36
Eddie Mayo 4 SB in 20 attempts in 1947-48.
Larry Gardner 3 SB in 23 attempts in 1920
Hod Ford 1 SB in 13 attempts in 1924-25
Bobby Doerr 6 SB in 26 attempts in 1938-39

So, Juan could very well be 3 away from breaking the record. Someone should recognize his efforts!