Chat Transcript 2/29

Thanks to everyone who spent a few minutes chatting this morning. Some really great questions (if a little Yankee heavy) and believe me, if other things weren't pressing I would have preferred to go on for most of the afternoon.

Chat 2/29

Just a quick note that I'll be chatting at Baseball Prospectus.com on Friday February 29th at 11 AM Mountain time. I've never chatted on "leap day" before so this should be fun :)

Seriously, if you have questions around my essays in Baseball Prospectus 2008 on baserunning and throwing arms or anything else that interests you, please submit them early as that always provides you with better answers.

WWBD?

In a new column on Baseball Prospectus I ask the question on every one's mind, "What Would Bacon Do?" (WWBD?).

No, not Kevin Bacon but Sir Francis Bacon the English philosopher and statesman. The question of course is what would Bacon think of Derek Jeter's defensive ability and the recent hub-ub surrounding it. Using Bacon's new-fangled inductive method of reasoning and his "idols" construct for categorizing the frailties of human reasoning, we come to a conclusion regarding The Captain. Enjoy.

Baserunning for the Ages

I've been writing mostly about defense over at Baseball Prospectus and here in the past couple of months and so I thought I'd revisit the topic of baserunning today.

Although in my column I talked about the greatest baserunners of the Retrosheet era and here have extolled the virtues of Tim Raines, Robin Yount and others, I noticed that I've failed in either venue to list the top and bottom single seasons of that era.

So today here are the top and bottom 50 baserunning seasons in terms of total Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EqBRR). And don't forget that an essay describing the system and its metrics titled "The Tortoise, the Hare, and Juan Pierre" appears in Baseball Prospectus 2008, which I'm told, is shipping now. Also, I'll be talking about the book with Christina Kahrl and Nate Silver Wednesday, March 5th at 7:30 pm at the Tattered Cover Bookstore in Historic LoDo in Denver.

First, the top 50 seasons.

Name                Year    EqGAR  EqSBR  EqAAR  EqHAR  EqOAR TotOpps   EqBRR EqBRRate
Maury Wills         1962      0.8   13.8    2.3    3.6    0.1    848     20.6     1.26
Willie Wilson       1980      0.5   10.0    4.2    3.9    0.5    741     19.1     1.35
Rickey Henderson    1985      2.6    9.8    1.0    3.1    2.3    663     18.8     1.43
Vince Coleman       1986      0.0   11.0    0.3    0.9    4.2    627     16.4     1.26
Willie Wilson       1979      2.1    9.2    0.7    2.8    0.9    563     15.7     1.33
Eric Davis          1986     -0.3   10.2    0.5    1.7    3.2    403     15.3     1.55
Rickey Henderson    1988      2.3    9.0    1.3   -2.0    3.8    650     14.4     1.27
Vince Coleman       1987      2.5    7.1    1.2    2.4    0.8    723     14.1     1.28
Tim Raines Sr       1983      0.9    7.6    1.8    2.7    0.6    762     13.6     1.22
Bobby Bonds         1972      2.0    6.0    1.6    3.6    0.5    517     13.6     1.42
Kenny Lofton        1993      1.5    8.1   -0.1    4.3   -0.5    717     13.3     1.17
Lonnie Smith        1985      2.8    1.4    2.5    2.9    3.1    460     12.8     1.85
Willie Wilson       1987      0.4    7.1    0.6    3.9    0.7    581     12.6     1.24
Juan Pierre         2007      0.3    4.2    1.9    5.0    0.6    666     12.0     1.40
Davey Lopes         1978      0.6    5.8    1.9    1.4    2.1    580     11.8     1.24
Vince Coleman       1985      1.2   10.7    0.7    0.6   -1.4    665     11.8     1.06
Rickey Henderson    1983      0.9    7.8    1.3    0.1    1.6    609     11.7     1.17
Gary Pettis         1985      2.1    7.4    0.7    0.2    1.3    470     11.7     1.31
Johnny Damon        2000      3.1    2.7   -0.7    4.2    2.2    743     11.5     1.33
Ron LeFlore         1979      2.3    5.6    1.3    1.9    0.4    602     11.5     1.30
Davey Lopes         1975      0.4    8.6   -1.3    2.2    1.4    685     11.4     1.14
Barry Larkin        1995      1.3    5.5    1.2    1.3    1.9    526     11.2     1.31
Tim Raines Sr       1985      1.6    9.4    0.8   -0.6    0.0    726     11.2     1.08
Willie Wilson       1983      1.9    7.0   -0.6    1.4    1.5    532     11.2     1.24
Ivan DeJesus        1978      1.0    2.2    1.7    4.5    1.7    625     11.1     1.38
Hanley Ramirez      2006      3.1    1.7    1.3    3.5    1.5    576     11.0     1.50
Joe Morgan          1975      0.8    6.3    0.9    2.0    0.9    618     10.8     1.27
Ron LeFlore         1980      0.1   11.0    0.3   -0.1   -0.5    611     10.7     0.99
Tim Raines Sr       1987     -0.5    7.2    0.3    2.5    0.9    567     10.4     1.17
Ray Durham          1998      1.2    2.0    1.8    3.6    1.8    611     10.4     1.37
Juan Pierre         2005      3.6    1.7   -0.3    2.5    2.9    665     10.4     1.43
Chone Figgins       2005      4.4    0.7    1.9    2.5    0.8    619     10.3     1.43
Marquis Grissom     1992     -0.3    6.5    2.1    0.1    1.8    567     10.2     1.19
Rickey Henderson    1984      0.9    2.4    2.1    3.9    0.9    599     10.2     1.31
Tim Raines Sr       1982      3.3    5.7   -0.2    1.2    0.1    626     10.1     1.25
Tim Raines Sr       1992      0.3    5.3    1.5    3.0    0.1    669     10.1     1.24
Al Wiggins          1983      0.3    4.1    0.9    0.4    4.4    582     10.0     1.29
Bert Campaneris     1969      1.3    5.8   -0.5    2.5    0.8    565      9.9     1.29
Kenny Lofton        1994      1.7    4.5   -1.1    3.4    1.4    574      9.9     1.23
Ron LeFlore         1978      2.3    5.2    0.6    2.3   -0.6    720      9.9     1.20
Chone Figgins       2006      2.1    0.8    1.6    4.9    0.4    577      9.9     1.48
Omar Moreno         1979      1.5    3.8    0.7    3.0    0.8    619      9.8     1.29
Scott Podsednik     2003      1.8    4.6    1.0    3.2   -0.6    542      9.8     1.34
Joe Morgan          1976      0.1    5.5    0.4    2.7    1.0    504      9.7     1.28
Tom Goodwin         2000      1.0    3.9    1.3    2.9    0.5    445      9.7     1.37
Milt Cuyler         1991      0.9    3.1    2.0    0.8    2.8    438      9.7     1.47
Davey Lopes         1976      0.6    7.3    0.5    1.7   -0.5    508      9.7     1.12
Willie Wilson       1984      1.7    5.1    2.1    0.8   -0.1    530      9.7     1.24
Tony Gwynn          1987      0.3    2.0    1.4    3.5    2.3    682      9.6     1.36
Luis Castillo       2007      1.0    0.6    1.1    3.1    3.8    528      9.6     1.51

As you can probably tell most of these top 50 are driven by high EqSBR scores with Maury Wills 1962 season at the top of the heap. There were a few players though, like Lonnie Smith in 1985 who excelled despite pedestrian work stealing bases. Related to that point you'll also notice that the final column we have a rate statistic titled EqBRRate. I explained the idea behind it in the column cited above.

...it turns out that when many folks talk about baserunning, they're not really thinking about discretionary stolen base attempts, but instead that combination of speed, risk taking, and judgment that goes into evaluating situations, and that when aggregated leads us to assert that a particular player is a good baserunner. Since EqSBR is primarily comprised of stolen base attempts (with a few pickoffs thrown in) our new rate statistic, which we'll christen Equivalent Baserunning Rate (EqBRRate), will omit this aspect.

So...we'll define EqBRRate as the ratio of actual or total runs to expected runs contributed across the four remaining metrics. Since both values for individual opportunities consider the context and are weighted appropriately (an EqOAR opportunity has both a lower expected and usually actual run value associated with it than an opportunity of EqHAR) and since we're eliminating EqSBR, both weaknesses discussed above addressed. To illustrate how this works, let's consider Chone Figgins' 2007 season:

Metric    Opps  TotRuns ExpRuns
EqOAR      314      0.1     1.2
EqGAR       31      3.2     2.6
EqAAR       44      5.7     4.7
EqHAR       53     10.1     5.6
           442     19.0    14.2

Taking the context of the opportunities into account, we would have expected Figgins to net +14.2 runs across the four metrics, but he actually contributed +19.0 runs. When we divide the total by the expected we get a ratio of 1.34, indicating that he contributed, or manufactured if you will, 34 percent more runs than expected.

So as you can see Smith's 1985 season actually comes out on top with a EqBRRate of 1.85 easily topping the 1986 season of Eric Davis at 1.55. The lowest rate out of the top 50 is Ron LeFlore's 1980 season where he was actually below 1.00 at 0.99 but made the top 50 by virtue of his 11.0 EqSBR.

And now the bottom 50...

Name                Year    EqGAR  EqSBR  EqAAR  EqHAR  EqOAR TotOpps   EqBRR EqBRRate
Carlos Delgado      2007     -0.4   -0.2   -2.9   -3.6   -0.4    394     -7.5     0.41
Jose Offerman       1992      0.5   -4.9   -1.3   -1.1   -0.7    505     -7.5     0.86
Eddie Murray        1990     -1.2   -4.2    0.2   -3.5    1.1    521     -7.5     0.82
Scott Cooper        1994      0.1   -2.3   -0.4   -5.2    0.3    306     -7.5     0.45
Rick Wilkins        1996     -0.4   -1.7   -1.3   -4.3    0.2    264     -7.6     0.41
Pat Burrell         2005     -0.5   -0.2   -0.7   -5.6   -0.7    368     -7.6     0.42
Randy Milligan      1991     -0.5   -3.7   -0.5   -2.1   -0.8    414     -7.6     0.67
Manny Trillo        1982     -0.1   -4.1   -1.9   -1.9    0.3    430     -7.6     0.72
Larry Sheets        1988     -0.7   -4.3   -0.8   -1.8   -0.2    286     -7.7     0.58
Bill Freehan        1971     -1.1   -3.1   -1.8   -1.7   -0.1    331     -7.8     0.43
Dave Parker         1977     -0.4   -6.4   -0.9    0.7   -0.8    531     -7.8     0.93
Jorge Posada        2007     -1.3   -0.1   -0.7   -4.2   -1.6    507     -7.8     0.59
Ted Simmons         1975     -1.5   -1.7    0.3   -4.8   -0.2    573     -7.9     0.72
Ed Bailey           1963      0.0   -3.9   -0.4   -3.3   -0.4    231     -7.9     0.35
Gene Richards       1982     -1.3   -4.8    0.0   -2.0    0.1    455     -8.0     0.81
Jim Thome           2004     -0.5   -1.4   -3.2   -3.2    0.3    436     -8.0     0.59
David Justice       1997     -0.7   -3.3   -0.3   -3.0   -0.7    398     -8.0     0.61
Dan Meyer           1977     -0.9   -2.0   -1.3   -4.6    0.7    409     -8.1     0.60
Jim Norris          1977     -0.1   -3.8    0.2   -2.9   -1.5    447     -8.1     0.73
Felix Jose          1991     -1.8   -3.5   -2.5    0.7   -1.0    482     -8.1     0.62
Lance Parrish       1979      0.0   -3.7   -2.6   -1.5   -0.4    361     -8.1     0.62
Steve Garvey        1980     -0.4   -5.5   -0.9   -0.8   -0.6    467     -8.1     0.78
Steve Henderson     1983      0.2   -7.5    0.6   -0.7   -0.8    362     -8.2     0.93
Carlos Delgado      2000     -0.6   -1.4   -1.4   -3.6   -1.1    618     -8.2     0.58
Al Oliver           1977     -0.1   -7.0   -0.2   -0.1   -0.8    474     -8.2     0.88
Tom Foley           1988     -0.1   -4.4   -0.4   -1.6   -1.7    279     -8.3     0.53
Dale Berra          1984      1.2   -2.8   -0.9   -5.2   -0.7    297     -8.4     0.57
Tommy McCraw        1972     -0.5   -5.9   -1.5   -0.5    0.0    299     -8.4     0.76
Joe Cunningham      1959     -0.8   -2.3    0.4   -5.3   -0.4    504     -8.5     0.60
Pete O'Brien        1984     -0.4   -3.1   -1.4   -2.9   -0.6    428     -8.5     0.52
Kenny Lofton        1997      0.4   -9.4   -0.1    0.6    0.0    539     -8.5     1.06
Frank Thomas        2000     -1.0   -1.6   -1.6   -3.4   -1.0    535     -8.6     0.47
Harold Reynolds     1988     -0.7   -7.8    1.0   -1.2    0.0    535     -8.7     0.95
Eddie Yost          1957      0.3   -5.4   -0.9   -2.8    0.0    394     -8.7     0.62
Joe Morgan          1980     -0.2   -2.0   -0.3   -6.5    0.3    434     -8.8     0.55
Clete Boyer         1970      0.6   -1.6   -0.2   -6.9   -0.8    307     -8.8     0.21
Ed Kranepool        1967     -0.8   -1.9   -0.1   -5.7   -0.4    323     -8.8     0.39
Mike Hargrove       1979     -1.8   -2.3   -0.2   -4.2   -0.5    522     -8.8     0.69
Jose Cruz           1977     -0.1   -8.3    0.5   -1.3    0.3    483     -8.9     0.95
Ernie Whitt         1989     -1.4   -1.0   -1.7   -4.0   -0.9    313     -9.0     0.34
Harmon Killebrew    1970     -0.8   -2.1   -0.7   -4.6   -1.0    435     -9.0     0.56
Tom Pagnozzi        1991     -1.5   -4.8   -0.7   -1.5   -0.8    391     -9.3     0.61
Bob Kearney         1984     -0.1   -2.6   -2.0   -3.8   -0.9    290     -9.4     0.29
Ryan Garko          2007     -1.0   -0.4    0.2   -7.7   -0.5    403     -9.4     0.32
Rod Carew           1982      0.1   -5.5   -0.2   -3.2   -0.7    558     -9.5     0.71
Tom Brunansky       1992     -0.6   -3.1   -1.8   -3.4   -0.7    373     -9.6     0.43
Todd Zeile          1997     -0.5   -4.8    0.0   -4.5   -0.4    484    -10.2     0.64
Mike Epstein        1971     -0.2   -2.5   -2.4   -4.4   -1.1    311    -10.6     0.38
Todd Zeile          1992     -0.7   -4.0   -1.1   -5.4    0.0    425    -11.2     0.52
Tony Bernazard      1984     -0.1   -6.9   -0.3   -3.4   -0.6    364    -11.2     0.62

There are some real "ice wagons" here (in the parlance of the dead ball era referring to poor baserunners) of course although many of these as well are here because they did so poorly in EqSBR (Tony Bernazard, Jose Cruz, and Kenny Lofton are three notable examples). The Indians Ryan Garko makes the list with his 2007 campaign primarily because he was thrown out trying to advance on hits five times - all at the plate - on his way to an historic -7.7 runs on EqHAR.

From a pure baserunning perspective Clete Boyer with his 1970 campaign ranks dead last at 0.21 with Bob Kearney in 1984 at 0.29 and Garko close behind. Lofton's 1997 season is the only one with a rate of 1.00 or higher at 1.06 but his EqSBR of -9.4 sinks him.

Maybe He is but Maybin He Isn't?

Today in my column on Baseball Prospectus I take a look at minor league outfielders using the SFR system. As I've done previously I take a look at the leaders and trailers at all levels before aggregating across all positions and leagues to list the best and worst defenders in the outfield among minor leaguers in 2007.

In addition, I examine Baseball America's top outfield and infield defenders published in their Baseball America Prospect Handbook for 2008 and compare them to what SFR thinks. From an overall perspective the subjective and objective systems largely agree although Marlins top prospect Cameron Maybin is one of the few players on which the two approaches seem to disagree violently. Maybin fared poorly across all hit types in his 70 games in centerfield while at Lakeland and overall including his time in the Eastern League ended up at -15.4 runs on 421 balls fielded. It certainly is the case that the smaller sample sizes in the minor league seasons tend to make the results less reliable than for major leaguers but still, I was somewhat surprised given the glowing assessments by so many. If there are any fans out there who've watched him play in person I'd be interested in hearing what you think.

And as always a spreadsheet is now available with all 4000+ player, position, and league combinations.

Baseball Research Journal vol 36

As talked about in a previous post the Baseball Research Journal volume 36 containing the article by Neal Williams and myself on quantifying third base coaches is now available.

One of the articles you may want to check out is "An Analysis of the Gyroball" by Alan Nathan and David Baldwin wherein they do an analysis similar to the one I did back in July in my Schrodinger's Bat column (no subscription required).

For those who are not SABR members copies of the Baseball Research Journal 2007 can be ordered from the University of Nebraska Press, 1-800-755-1105 (U.S. Orders), or http://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu.

The Captain

What everyone knew already but that is now gaining a little mainstream press.

Derek Jeter is not a good defensive shortstop.

The above revelation is a part of the presentation that Shane Jensen and colleagues gave in discussing his Spatial Aggregate Fielding Evaluation system or SAFE at a recent AAAS meeting in Boston.

Of course, as is typical, the popular press (the Popular Science article) gets the details wrong and attributes Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) to David Pinto instead of his system called Probabilstic Model of Range (PMR).

Defending in the Wide Open Spaces

Today in my column on Baseball Prospectus I officially roll out version 1.0 of Simple Fielding Runs (a defensive system based only on Retrosheet-style play by play codes) for the outfield after doing the same for infielders back in January.

For those who read the column a couple weeks ago where I re-did the methodology to follow a more WOWY (with-or-without-you-approach), nothing has really changed with the algorithm but this time around I break outfield SFR into its underlying components by hit type, develop a rate statistic, take a look at how SFR compares to the Plus/Minus system at the level of teams, incorporate the throwing metric that is discussed in an essay in Baseball Prospectus 2008, and finally create some plots for 2007 outfielders that juxtaposes their general defense as rated by SFR and their throwing ability both using rate statistics.

As a preview of this latter point consider the following plot for 2007 center fielders where SFR rate (per 650 balls fielded) is shown on the y-axis and throwing rate (per 550 opportunities) is shown on the x-axis. Each outfielder is then placed in one of four quadrants. Those in the upper right quadrant are both good fielders and throwers (Alfredo Amezaga), moving clockwise we see good throwers but poor fielders (Bill Hall, Elijah Dukes), poor throwers and poor fielders (Juan Pierre), and finally ending with good fielders but poor throwers in the upper left (Johnny Damon, Nook Logan).



The full article contains the plots for all positions.

Oh, and all the major league data from 2003 through 2007 is available in spreadsheet form (and that includes the throwing data).

Tigers on the Run

A kind soul points out to me that Lee Panas over at Tiger Tales takes a look at the 2007 Tigers in terms of their baserunning. To augment his post I thought I'd offer the entire Tigers team in terms of the five baserunning metrics I created.

                     Opps  EqGAR   Opps  EqSBR   Opps  EqAAR   Opps  EqHAR   Opps  EqOAR   Opps  EqBRR
Curtis Granderson      43    0.6     28    4.1     60   -0.1     74    2.2    426   -0.6    631    6.2
Gary Sheffield         16   -0.2     28    0.7     41    0.6     44    2.3    249    1.5    378    4.9
Ryan Raburn             6    0.1      2    0.3      4    0.4     17    0.6     79    0.7    108    2.1
Omar Infante           11    0.2      5    0.3     13   -0.2     14    0.1    107    0.6    150    1.0
Cameron Maybin          2   -0.2      5    0.8      1    0.0      3    0.4     26   -0.1     37    1.0
Marcus Thames           5    0.0      3   -0.2     11    0.1     15    1.2     97   -0.4    131    0.7
Placido Polanco        25   -0.3     10    0.4     49   -1.9     67    1.3    423    1.3    574    0.6
Timoniel Perez          9    0.1      2   -0.1      5    0.1     10    0.2     58    0.1     84    0.3
Brandon Inge           24    0.7     11    0.4     35    0.1     37   -1.1    257    0.1    364    0.2
Ramon Santiago          4    0.4      4    0.3      5    0.1      8   -0.6     47   -0.2     68    0.0
Mike Maroth             0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      3    0.0      3    0.0
Jeremy Bonderman        0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      6    0.0      6    0.0
Brent Clevlen           0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      0    0.0      7    0.0      7    0.0
Mike Hessman            2    0.0      0    0.0      1    0.0      4   -0.1     20   -0.1     27   -0.2
Neifi Perez             1    0.0      0    0.0      5    0.0      3   -0.1     30   -0.1     39   -0.2
Carlos Guillen         31   -0.5     22   -1.5     42    0.4     40    1.6    285   -0.4    420   -0.5
Craig Monroe           15   -0.6      3   -1.1     11    0.0     30    0.4    115   -0.4    174   -1.6
Magglio Ordonez        39    0.5      4    0.0     49   -1.1     58   -0.8    409   -0.8    559   -2.2
Sean Casey             19   -0.2      4   -0.7     34    0.2     24   -1.5    240   -0.1    321   -2.2
Ivan Rodriguez         23    0.1      4   -1.0     33    0.1     38   -0.9    245   -0.6    343   -2.3
Mike Rabelo            10   -0.5      1   -0.4      9   -0.1      9   -1.0     92   -0.3    121   -2.3

                      285    0.1    136    2.1    408   -1.2    495    4.1   3221    0.3   4545    5.4

Keep in mind that the data Lee shows is really a subset of the EqHAR (Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs) shown here but as Lee points out Gary Sheffield did well in 2007 as did Guillen, Palanco, and Monroe.

Statistical Profiling?

As always Alan Schwarz has an interesting piece in the New York Times, this time around on the topic of using statistics as a benchmark for increased testing for performance enhancing substances. The idea, floated by Representative Mark Souder, an Indiana Republican, is that by comparing actual statistical performance to the player's history and performance projected on the basis of an "average" or typical career path, major league baseball would flag certain players as more likely to be users of performance enhancing drugs. Those players would be tested more frequently or more closely I assume until they passed some criteria where their new performance level is accepted as legitimate.

Schwarz then goes through the litany of reasons why such "statistical profiling" would likely be futile ranging from the inherent variability in career path for any particular player, to the problem of what one would measure to try and catch such anomalies, to the fact that the current evidence stemming from the Mitchell report is inconclusive at best.

In the piece, however, he points to the similarities in the careers of Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds as evidence for why the first point above makes it unrealistic to use career paths as a measure.

Using my unsophisticated projection system for projecting Normalized OPS (a park adjusted and league adjusted OPS taking into account a three year weighted average regressed to the mean, age and league adjusted), here are the two career mentioned above.

To me, what's interesting about these two is that in the case of Aaron it certainly is true that he had his most productive season at age 37 and his fourth most productive at age 39 with a nice year thrown in at age 35. However, these were interspersed with seasons at ages 36, 38 and 40 that were pretty much what a projection system would indicate. Essentially Aaron had a very slight decline phase with some excellent seasons interspersed.

Bonds, however, had his four best seasons by a large margin at the consecutive ages of 36, 37, 38, and 39. Clearly this indicates that he established a new performance level that was around 25% higher than his established level from ages 29 through 34. I'm certainly not saying that I would agree with Souder that this kind of profiling should be the sole criteria used to trigger a more stringent testing regime for specific players. However, it certainly seems reasonable that statistics could be included in the set of criteria used to determine whether enhanced testing is warranted (assuming that the general concept of this second level is even accepted). In the case of Bonds, his associations and suspicions of club officials, physical appearance, and performance on the field should have combined to tip the balance in favor of increased scrutiny.

Of course it's also true as Schwarz indicates that just what statistics would be used would be problematic. Here we're looking at overall productivity but intertwined in OPS is both a measure of power (which is usually argued as the tell tale sign of steroid use but is more problematic when looking at other substances like human growth hormone) and patience. For Bonds, both components increased greatly as his power scared the daylights out of opposing teams to the extent that they would walk or pitch around him any time a runner was on base. There's no reason to believe that would necessarily be the case as a general rule.

For Aaron there were (ostensibly) no other circumstances that raised red flags and so on the strength of his career path alone that kind of scrutiny wouldn't be warranted. The reason, as Schwarz articulates, is that career paths do indeed vary significantly. For example, consider the case of Carlton Fisk.

Fisk showed a steady decline from his age 26 season through age 34 and then had a resurgent age 35 season in 1983 with the White Sox. After continuing the decline through age 39 he suddenly enjoyed three consecutive seasons at productivity levels he hadn't seen since his mid-20s albeit doing so in fewer plate appearances.

And then of course there are those players about whom there are whispers but no actual evidence coupled with a career path that could be interpreted in both ways. A case in point is Sammy Sosa.



Sosa's rise is a little earlier starting at age 29 and maxing out at age 32 and there is also other evidence including a changed approach at the plate under the tutelage of Jeff Pentland and certainly enhanced weight training (with the use of creatine); all of the above making it more than a little dicey to base enhanced testing on the statistical record alone.

With that said, the case is a little more convincing when looking at Mark McGwire.

Like Bonds, his established level of performance jumped at a rather late age (31) and was sustained through age 36 (at age 29 he had just 112 plate appearances and .333/.427/.726). If this kind of increase were coupled with allegations by former teammates and the use of the steroid precursor androstenedione (although legal at the time), then it just may rise to the level that Souder is talking about. It should be noted, though, that Jose Canseco did not (as far as I know) finger McGwire or anyone else while McGwire was still active although from the Mitchell report it is clear that both Tony LaRussa and Dave McKay (and possibly Sandy Alderson although he denies it) knew that Canseco was using steroids and did not report it. Had they done so, it should have cast suspiscion on McGwire's 1996 and 1997 performances while still with the A's.

In the final analysis while I believe that statistics could by one data point in a much more complex evaluation system, they should not be used blindly like Souder seems to be indicating. Baseball, like other human activities, is simply too dynamic and there are too many interacting variables in play to warrant that kind of simplistic system.

Baseball's Toughest Division

Which division is baseball's toughest?

Well, if you listen to the media you'll no doubt respond that the AL Central is clearly the toughest division in baseball. Having heard that so often in the past couple months in the wake of the Tigers deal for Dontrelle Willi and Miguel Cabrera and the Johan Santana trade last week, I decided to take a look based on the actual performance of the divisions in intradivisional play as well interleague results stretching back to 1997. The end result is discussed this week in my column at Baseball Prospectus.

In the second half of the column I take a look at the simple projection system I created and wrote about several months ago. This time around I have it project into the future and show the top 2008 projections in terms of Normalized and Park Adjusted OPS. From there I take a look at the where the projections differ the most as well as the track record in graphical form of the projections for Magglio Ordonez, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Gary Sheffield, and Ken Griffey Jr. Enjoy.

The Traffic Directors Addendum

By now SABR members should have received their copies of volume 36 of The Baseball Research Journal. For me receiving the journal in large part pays for the cost of the SABR membership as there are always more than a few interesting articles to peruse. Although I haven't read the entire journal yet the articles on strategy in Japanese baseball (titled "The Evolution of Japanese Baseball Strategy") by Robert K. Fitch and "A Manifesto for Defensive Baseball Statistics" by Dr. Jon Bruschke certainly caught my eye.

This year, however, I have another reason to be interested with the inclusion of an article by Neal Williams and me titled "The Traffic Directors". Some readers will be familiar with this topic since an online version of the article appeared in two parts last spring over on Rich Lederer's Baseball Analysts site. And so if you don't get the journal you can read about the methodology there.

In presenting the article to a group of SABRites here in Colorado a few weeks ago I went back and took a look 2007 data and at the rest of the data set that Neal had collected in response to a few questions by those assembled.

First, let's take a look at the 2007 third base coaches ordered by ratio.

                          Coach                      Non-Coach
Year Team Coach           Opps  OA EqHAR ExHAR Rate  Opps  OA EqHAR ExHAR  Rate Ratio
2007 BOS  DeMarlo Hale     240   6   0.4  47.0 1.01   450   9 -10.8  45.0  0.76  1.33
2007 COL  Mike Gallego     266   4   8.5  62.2 1.14   429  12  -3.4  44.3  0.92  1.23
2007 HOU  Doug Mansolin    230   8  -5.0  50.9 0.90   349   4  -8.1  32.5  0.75  1.20
2007 DET  Gene Lamont      299   6   5.5  53.4 1.10   412   7  -2.7  43.0  0.94  1.18
2007 ATL  Brian Snitker    245   5   1.8  50.3 1.04   400   4  -4.1  37.3  0.89  1.16
2007 TBA  Tom Foley        229   2   4.0  45.1 1.09   386   6  -0.5  39.7  0.99  1.10
2007 SEA  Carlos Garcia    246   3   2.5  55.0 1.05   476   9  -2.4  49.9  0.95  1.10
2007 SFN  Gene Glynn       221   3   1.3  40.1 1.03   365  10  -2.1  40.2  0.95  1.09
2007 SDN  Tim Flannery     197   5   3.3  44.0 1.07   347   6  -0.2  34.5  1.00  1.08
2007 MIL  Nick Leyva       182   4   0.0  40.5 1.00   301   5  -1.7  33.1  0.95  1.06
2007 NYN  Sandy Alomar     217   3  -0.2  49.6 1.00   359  11  -1.7  36.6  0.95  1.04
2007 PHI  Steve Smith      263   8  -1.3  52.7 0.98   359   8  -2.0  38.2  0.95  1.03
2007 CLE  Joel Skinner     235   6   0.1  55.0 1.00   391   6  -0.7  40.8  0.98  1.02
2007 ANA  Dino Ebel        291   6   4.8  49.5 1.10   397  11   3.9  40.5  1.10  1.00
2007 KCA  Brian Poldber    219   4   4.6  47.7 1.10   357   8   3.0  30.8  1.10  1.00
2007 OAK  Rene Lacheman    242   4  -2.7  50.8 0.95   370   7  -1.9  39.5  0.95  0.99
2007 SLN  Jose Oquendo     271   8  -1.0  48.5 0.98   387   7  -0.5  35.5  0.98  0.99
2007 NYA  Larry Bowa       309   3   2.3  62.2 1.04   413   8   3.4  46.3  1.07  0.97
2007 LAN  Rich Donnelly    258   5   3.4  49.9 1.07   419   5   4.7  42.0  1.11  0.96
2007 FLO  Bo Porter        209   4  -4.2  39.4 0.89   361   7  -1.5  35.1  0.96  0.94
2007 PIT  Jeff Cox         227   4  -1.7  45.5 0.96   375   6   1.8  44.5  1.04  0.92
2007 ARI  Chip Hale        172   6  -2.9  42.5 0.93   336   8   1.7  31.7  1.05  0.89
2007 BAL  Juan Samuel      231   4  -5.6  48.4 0.88   397   8   0.3  40.1  1.01  0.88
2007 CHA  Razor Shines     194   5  -1.2  39.9 0.97   304   5   3.0  28.2  1.11  0.88
2007 TOR  Brian Butterf    208   7  -6.6  38.7 0.83   374   9  -1.7  38.0  0.96  0.87
2007 CHN  Mike Quade       241   6  -1.6  49.5 0.97   386   8   5.3  41.6  1.13  0.86
2007 MIN  Scott Ullger     236   9   0.2  50.7 1.00   388   6   5.9  33.8  1.17  0.86
2007 CIN  Mark Berry       209   8  -8.9  49.3 0.82   363   8  -1.3  38.1  0.96  0.85
2007 WAS  Tim Tolman       203   7  -4.7  41.4 0.89   347   4   2.2  35.6  1.06  0.84
2007 TEX  Don Wakamatsu    216   4   5.0  44.9 1.11   362   3  12.2  34.0  1.36  0.82

Both league champions bubble to the top of the list but those who've read the articles will know that this doesn't reflect much in terms of skill. This point was validated by looking at the careers of third base coaches and splitting the even and odd years in order to see if there was any persistence in ratio (defined as the ratio of the "coach-influenced" and "non-coach-influenced" opportunities). The plot below shows the career halves for the 35 coaches with the most experience from 1993 through 2007.



So again with a coefficient of determination of .03 there is no correlation for ratio indicating that there is precious little skill (or rather skill difference) between coaches at the major league level - assuming of course that the metric would capture the influence of a coach if it were present.

Finally then, here is the complete data set of the 125 coaches from 1993 through 2007 and how they did in terms of ratio.

                           Coach                  Non-Coach
Name              Season   Opps     OA   EqHAR    Opps     OA   EqHAR   Ratio
Greg Riddoch          1      77      3    -1.1     200      9    -7.4    1.51
Billy Hatcher         2     387      6     5.5     573     21   -11.4    1.33
Eddie Rodriguez       1     165      4    -1.7     340     10    -9.7    1.32
Bill Dancy            2     528     15     4.3     736     17   -13.1    1.26
Christopher Bando     3     570     15    -3.1     926     23   -19.0    1.24
Lance Parish          1     189      5     0.9     243      8    -4.2    1.24
Michael Cubbage       2     494     12     3.6     706     15   -11.6    1.23
Gary Allenson         3     517     22   -15.2     786     27   -20.2    1.18
Terry Bevington       2     439     12    -3.5     544     11    -8.7    1.17
DeMarlo Hale          2     489     11    -6.8     874     17   -18.4    1.17
Brian Snitker         1     245      5     1.8     400      4    -4.1    1.16
Terry Francona        1     200      4     0.2     349      9    -5.2    1.16
Al Pedrique           1     223      2     5.7     308      4    -0.8    1.16
Bobby Floyd           1     173      5    -2.7     316      8    -5.9    1.15
Dave  Myers           4     986     16     8.1    1463     35   -12.8    1.14
Tom Foley             6    1285     22    17.8    1995     49    -9.5    1.14
Ray Knight            2     341      5     7.0     562     15    -1.8    1.13
Rick Burleson         3     706     13     7.5    1081     33    -3.6    1.12
John Russell          3     672     19    -1.1    1096     24   -10.7    1.11
Jack Lind             3     556     12     3.3    1037     30    -8.6    1.11
Joe Amalfitano        6    1067     28     4.7    2097     56   -12.0    1.11
Eddie Rodriquez       2     475     11    -5.5     614     16    -7.8    1.10
David Oliver          2     507      6     4.2     786     14    -3.8    1.09
Nick Leyva            5     857     15     5.1    1524     30    -8.3    1.09
Jeff Datz             1     274      5    -0.4     400      7    -3.3    1.09
Willie Randolph       8    2001     40    18.4    2930     70    -6.1    1.09
Mike Gallego          3     753     12    10.8    1157     31    -2.6    1.09
Gene Lamont           7    1622     37    13.4    2496     61    -7.2    1.08
Gary Pettis           3     530     18    -3.4     741     17    -7.2    1.08
Ron Wotus             1     191      3     2.2     416      7    -0.9    1.07
Rene Lachemann        4     789     21   -12.7    1465     39   -14.9    1.06
Tom Trebelhorn        6    1323     32     4.4    2101     51    -4.8    1.06
Cookie Rojas          7    1392     38   -16.6    2374     56   -21.8    1.06
Jim Riggleamn         1     270      7    -1.5     308     11    -2.8    1.06
Juan Samuel           4     857     15     2.2    1373     31    -3.9    1.06
Ron Oester            2     407     11     0.4     571     20    -2.4    1.05
Sam Perlozzo          7    1564     31     5.0    2249     47    -3.6    1.05
Joel Skinner          6    1322     33    16.3    2041     47     2.6    1.05
Gene Glynn            8    1815     43   -16.4    2563     50   -17.3    1.05
Manny Acta            5    1032     17    15.7    1495     37     6.0    1.05
Ozzie Guillen         2     345     10     1.2     632     19    -1.9    1.04
Don Zimmer            1     147      4     0.3     262      6    -0.9    1.04
Joey Cora             1     234      9    -7.5     404      9    -6.9    1.04
Duffy Dyer            5    1039     26     7.8    1830     42     1.8    1.04
Carlos Garcia         2     472      9     1.3     853     22    -2.5    1.04
Ron Washington        8    1973     51     5.0    2590     45    -2.0    1.04
Tony Beasley          1     241      6     1.2     312      9    -0.4    1.04
Dino Ebel             2     529      9    15.8     770     20     8.8    1.04
Joel Youngblood       1     189      2     7.5     294      8     4.4    1.03
Steve Boros           3     570     14     1.6     901     28     0.5    1.03
Chuck Cottier         1     237      7     1.2     362      7    -0.2    1.03
Dale Sveum            3     789     18   -20.7    1201     26   -19.1    1.03
Cletis Boyer          2     478     13    -6.2     776     18    -6.8    1.03
Dave Bristol          1     194      9    -6.7     408      9    -6.3    1.02
Ron Jackson           2     515      8     1.6     778     20     0.2    1.02
Ron Hassey            1     186      3     0.1     342      8    -0.7    1.02
John Vukovich         7    1505     40    -7.3    2235     62    -5.3    1.02
Tim Foli              3     618     26    -0.8     844     27    -1.1    1.02
Sonny Jackson         4     843     25   -15.7    1241     31   -13.0    1.02
Al Newman             4     889     24     1.9    1384     28     1.5    1.01
Bobby Dews            2     397     17    -2.1     745     22    -3.6    1.01
John McLaren          2     507      7    -6.2     740     18    -5.8    1.01
Carlos Tosca          3     713     13     0.9     968     17    -0.6    1.01
Doug Mansolino        8    1769     40     4.9    2580     38     4.8    1.01
Jerry Narron          8    1788     35    23.1    2960     60    15.4    1.01
Luis Silverio         2     449      9     6.1     787     19     4.4    1.01
Rich Hacker           1     234      5     3.3     391      7     2.5    1.00
Matt Galante          6    1179     33    -3.2    1929     54     0.2    1.00
Bryan Little          2     411      4    11.0     700     16     8.8    1.00
Ken Macha             2     382     12     3.2     638     17     2.4    1.00
Brian Butterfield     7    1463     35    -5.6    2365     56     0.5    1.00
Brian Poldberg        1     219      4     4.6     357      8     3.0    1.00
Ned Yost              3     590     21    -7.6     797     24    -0.7    1.00
Mike Cubbage          7    1397     45     8.7    2383     65    13.0    1.00
Rob Picciolo          3     704     11     3.9    1163     24     7.3    0.99
Sandy Alomar          3     704     14    11.4    1042     26    10.7    0.99
Harry Dunlop          1     192      9    -5.5     398      8    -5.5    0.99
Perry Hill            2     401     10     0.3     684     21     1.5    0.98
Wendell Kim           9    1864     58   -27.1    3095     65    -6.5    0.98
Jose Oquendo          8    1887     41    23.8    2654     56    23.8    0.98
Dave Huppert          1     240      4    -1.3     318      7    -0.1    0.98
Steve Smith           7    1493     34    -5.8    2449     51     1.1    0.98
Jerry Royster         1     200      5    -2.3     366     11    -1.0    0.98
Bruce Bochy           2     381      9   -13.2     589     14    -7.9    0.97
Rich Donnelly        13    2868     84    -3.9    4287     92     8.1    0.97
Tommie Reynolds       4     719     14     6.4    1255     26     9.0    0.97
Tim Flannery          7    1526     39     4.2    2181     49    14.4    0.97
Jimmy Williams        4     841     26   -10.7    1208     30    -2.0    0.97
Glenn Hoffman         7    1541     42   -12.9    2019     47    -3.2    0.97
Larry Bowa            9    1870     37    -6.7    2866     55     5.8    0.97
Tim Raines            1     204      9     2.9     335      7     3.3    0.97
Jeff Newman           6    1313     32    -6.7    2143     43     6.2    0.97
Jerry Manuel          4     752     25   -18.4    1307     39    -8.1    0.96
Marc Bombard          1     170      1     6.8     301      5     6.8    0.96
Ron Gardenhire        5    1155     31    -2.4    1482     36     6.3    0.95
Bucky Dent            1     245      7    -0.5     401      9     2.0    0.94
Fredi Gonzalez        6    1249     25     0.6    2005     32    16.2    0.94
Rafael Santana        2     408      8     0.4     717     12     5.9    0.94
Jeff Cox              6    1246     32    -8.9    2057     36     5.0    0.94
Ron Roenicke          6    1538     40     4.0    1977     34    17.3    0.94
Bo Porter             1     209      4    -4.2     361      7    -1.5    0.94
Tom Gamboa            1     206      4     0.4     354      9     3.1    0.93
Dan Radison           1     227      4     2.1     331      8     4.1    0.93
Dave Oliver           2     406      4     8.0     621     11    11.3    0.92
John Mizerock         2     478     10    -0.5     790     13     6.7    0.91
Pete MacKanin         3     521     17    -4.6     846     20     5.1    0.91
Scott Ullger          5    1212     29     9.1    2058     40    26.4    0.91
Graig Nettles         1     236      8    -4.2     346     10     0.2    0.91
Gene Glenn            3     655     20   -10.9    1245     31     2.7    0.91
Tony Muser            3     557     16    -0.6     903     22     9.7    0.91
Luis Sojo             2     558     16    -5.6     718     12     5.3    0.91
Tony Harrah           1     272     11    -7.1     431      7    -0.9    0.91
Rich Dauer            5    1085     29    -1.3    1665     29    15.6    0.90
Tom Spencer           1     220      5     0.2     355      7     5.0    0.90
Chip Hale             1     172      6    -2.9     336      8     1.7    0.89
Mark Berry            4     893     26   -19.8    1274     25     2.0    0.88
Razor Shines          1     194      5    -1.2     304      5     3.0    0.88
Trent Jewett          2     354     10     1.4     454     10     7.1    0.87
Mike Quade            1     241      6    -1.6     386      8     5.3    0.86
Bobby Meacham         1     199      4     2.4     359      5     8.4    0.84
Tim Tolman            1     203      7    -4.7     347      4     2.2    0.84
John Sterns           1     206     10    -8.2     253     10    -0.1    0.83
Don Wakamatsu         1     216      4     5.0     362      3    12.2    0.82
Richard Tracewski     3     609     12    -3.1    1052     14    24.8    0.79
Chris Speier          4     865     22    -6.9    1160     15    25.1    0.78

For those scoring at home yes, Waving Wendall Kim did have the lowest overall EqHAR value at -27.1 runs with 58 runners caught on the bases in 9 seasons. However, when you consider non-coach-influenced opportunities he comes in just below an even ratio at 0.98 and 79th on our list.