New Duds at BP

At Baseball Prospectus we unveiled a new look today. We hope you like it and look for more changes in the future...

OPS: A Brief History

Nice article from Alan Schwarz in The New York Times related to OPS and the proper weighting of its elements. Schwarz cites the work of Victor Wang published in the August 2006 issue of SABR's By The Numbers newsletter. His article...

The OBP/SLG Ratio: What Does History Say?

The correct relative contribution of OBP and SLG in "OPS-type" statistics has been the subject of some discussion recently. Here, the author checks historical team run records to see which ratio gives the closest correlation to runs scored.

There has been much debate and research in the past issues of By the Numbers about how much more valuable OBP is to SLG. Values ranging from 1.5 to even 3 have been brought up. No one, however, has actually compared the various values of OBP to SLG to the runs scored of a team. To solve this, I took the OPS and runs scored from every team since 1960. I then adjusted the OPS using the different suggested coefficients for OBP. The adjusted OPS I used were OBP weighted by 1.5, OBP weighted by 1.8, OBP weighted by 1.9, OBP weighted by 2.0, and regular OPS. These OBP weights have all been suggested in one place or another.

The results:

OBP Coefficient Correlation to R

1    0.8386
1.5  0.8394
1.8  0.8408
1.9  0.8407
2    0.8405

We can see that normal OPS has the worst correlation when compared to each adjusted OPS. The correlation keeps improving until the coefficient reaches 1.8, when it starts to decline but still has a higher correlation than with a coefficient of 1. However, the correlations remain very close to each other.

The data shows that the best coefficient to use when weighting OBP is 1.8. This was also confirmed by Tom Tango though I am unaware where his study is located. In fact, The Hardball Times currently uses a stat called "GPA," which adjusts OPS using a 1.8 coefficient for OBP and divides by 4 to make the stat on a similar scale to batting average. If anyone is interested in the complete set of data that contains all teams from 1960 and there adjusted OPS with runs scored, please contact me at the e-mail address below.

This is a subject I've written on in the past and so for those interested...

DePodesta and OPS

A Closer Look at Run Estimation

Run Estimation for the Masses

OPS as a Run Estimator

Contextualizing OPS

VORP is Absurd

Was tipped off to this little ditty from Murray Chass of the New York Times.

Statistics mongers promoting VORP and other new-age baseball statistics.

I receive a daily e-mail message from Baseball Prospectus, an electronic publication filled with articles and information about statistics, mostly statistics that only stats mongers can love.

To me, VORP epitomized the new-age nonsense. For the longest time, I had no idea what VORP meant and didn’t care enough to go to any great lengths to find out. I asked some colleagues whose work I respect, and they didn’t know what it meant either.

Finally, not long ago, I came across VORP spelled out. It stands for value over replacement player. How thrilling. How absurd. Value over replacement player. Don’t ask what it means. I don’t know.

I suppose that if stats mongers want to sit at their computers and play with these things all day long, that's their prerogative. But their attempt to introduce these new-age statistics into the game threatens to undermine most fans' enjoyment of baseball and the human factor therein.

People play baseball. Numbers don’t.

Talk about a lack of intellectual curiosity. Whither Chass' colleague at the Times Alan Schwarz?

To me the idea that attempting to appreciate the game on a different level somehow diminishes the enjoyment one receives from the other levels is what is truly absurd. People aren't that one-dimensional and one could certainly argue that quantitative analysis in many respects enhances our appreciation for the human element of the game by helping us see in a different way the range of human abilities that come into play and how those abilities interact with, among other things, random chance.

While one would hope that new sources of information and new ways of knowing would extend in some way to everyone, this piece reinforces the notion articulated by Max Planck and quoted in Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions:

"a new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generations grows up that is familiar with it."

1000

In September of 2003 I authored my first post on this blog at the urging of my friend and co-worker Jon Box. In that post I noted that I chose the title "Dan Agonistes" in reference to Milton's famous poem Samson Agonistes written in 1671. Agon in Greek means "to struggle" or "wrestle" since this blog was intended to discuss my struggles or wrestling with various issues.

At the time I had intended to write mostly in my field of Information Technology with a fair dose of history, Christianity, natural science, and sports. What I quickly found in my next three posts was that I rather enjoyed writing about baseball (I did start another blog to discuss a service oriented software development project) and although I have from time to time written on other subjects the content has increasingly skewed towards baseball. Writing about the national pastime on this blog certainly helped me hone my writing skills and led directly to first writing for The Hardball Times and now Baseball Prospectus.

Well, this is now the 1,000th post (much to the mortification of my dear wife) and I have to admit that I'm a little surprised I'm still writing. Like many bloggers I think that writing about a topic helps me to think systematically and logically as well as come to opinions or conclusions on various issues. And so contrary to the notion that blogging is all about ego (it certainly is to some degree) I prefer to think that blogging is a form of self education. At least it has been for me.

Over the course of the last three and almost one half years there have been several posts that were my favorites. You'll notice that more than two hundred of those are listed on the right. But there are other posts that clearly the favorites of others, judging from the traffic reports I look at occasionally anyway. Some of those are:

The series of posts I wrote on C.S. Lewis' Miracles

The series of posts on Run Estimation

Sabermetrics 101

What is a Normal Career Trajectory?

Old Pitcher Skills?

Thanks for reading and I hope to keep the conversation going...

Gyroball Redux

Another interesting article on the gyroball written by Jeff Passan on Yahoo. Will Carroll offers some explanation as well on BP Unfiltered including a NY Times link to an article written by Lee Jenkins.

The Passan article seemingly causes more confusion as he says:

The theory behind the gyroball is this: When a baseball spins sideways, like a bullet, it should cut down on the amount of resistance on its path to the plate. Without the same amount of air resistance as a regular fastball, which rotates backward, the four-seam gyroball should not experience the same slowdown and look as if it's exploding toward the plate.

A perfect gyroball should be straighter than the crease on a pair of slacks.

"It doesn't move," Tezuka said. "It doesn't move at all."

This differs from the way the pitch was described by Alan Nathan a few months ago when he noted that the pitch would have a very small amount of break away from a right-handed hitter and using slightly different model would behave much like a cut fastball but with more drop. The confusion remains.

More Aging

In an effort take baseball fans minds off of the Jeter/A-Rod soap opera, today in my column on BP I start wrapping up a series of off seson ramblings by further exploring the relationship between team age and performance in response to some excellent reader questions.

In epitome, the three-year trend in team age has some (but not very much) predictive power in terms of record, team age and payroll are more highly correlated in the free agent era, and when we apply the standard individual performance curve to teams what you find is that there is really very little correlation between the two because of the fact that older players who remain in the league are actually better than younger ones. And I even throw in an analogy from Charles Darwin and apply it to baseball...

The Top 100

The prolific Kevin Goldstein releases his top 100 prospects on Baseball Prospectus this morning. Royals fans will no doubt be pleased as Alex Gordon makes the top spot and because it appears Mark Teahen will be moving to right field. In addition Billy Butler is at #21 and Luke Hochevar is at #23. Chris Lubanski just barely misses the top 100. The Devil Rays have 7 players in the top 100 as do the Rockies:

24. Troy Tulowitzki   SS         22
33. Franklin Morales  LHP        21
39. Dexter Fowler     OF         21
46. Jason Hirsh       RHP        25
49. Chris Iannetta    C          24
66. Ubaldo Jimenez    RHP        23
70. Ian Stewart       3B         22

Other teams:

Yankees        5
Angels         5
Diamondbacks   5
Brewers        4

Here are the top 100 sorted by team:

5. Brandon Wood         SS      Angels           22
28. Nick Adenhart       RHP     Angels           21
78. Erick Aybar         SS      Angels           23
85. Sean Rodriguez      SS      Angels           22
88. Hank Conger         C       Angels           19
47. Hunter Pence        OF      Astros           24
57. Troy Patton         LHP     Astros           21
62. Daric Barton        1B      Athletics        21
67. Travis Buck         OF      Athletics        23
97. Javier Herrera      OF      Athletics        22
40. Travis Snider       OF      Blue Jays        19
43. Adam Lind           OF      Blue Jays        23
51. Jarrod Saltalamacch C       Braves           22
79. Matt Harrison       RHP     Braves           21
80. Brent Lillibridge   SS      Braves           23
98. Neftali Feliz       RHP     Braves           19
12. Ryan Braun          3B      Brewers          23
14. Yovani Gallardo     RHP     Brewers          21
75. William Inman       RHP     Brewers          20
87. Jeremy Jeffress     RHP     Brewers          19
50. Colby Rasmus        OF      Cardinals        20
36. Donald Veal         LHP     Cubs             22
42. Felix Pie           OF      Cubs             22
82. Sean Gallagher      RHP     Cubs             21
3. Delmon Young         OF      Devil Rays       21
10. Evan Longoria       3B      Devil Rays       21
11. Reid Brignac        SS      Devil Rays       21
25. Jeff Niemann        RHP     Devil Rays       24
45. Jacob McGee         LHP     Devil Rays       20
77. Wade Davis          RHP     Devil Rays       21
100. Elijah Dukes       OF      Devil Rays       23
8. Chris Young          OF      Diamondback      23
29. Justin Upton        OF      Diamondback      19
31. Carlos Gonzalez     OF      Diamondback      21
76. Miguel Montero      C       Diamondback      23
91. Alberto Callaspo    2B      Diamondback      24
16. Clayton Kershaw     LHP     Dodgers          19
20. Andy LaRoche        3B      Dodgers          23
32. Scott Elbert        LHP     Dodgers          21
54. James Loney         1B/OF   Dodgers          23
6. Tim Lincecum         RHP     Giants           23
64. Angel Villalona     3B      Giants           16
73. Jonathan Sanchez    LHP     Giants           24
19. Adam Miller         RHP     Indians          22
35. Chuck Lofgren       LHP     Indians          22
60. Trevor Crowe        OF      Indians          23
44. Adam Jones          OF      Mariners         21
59. Jeff Clement        C       Mariners         24
74. Brandon Morrow      RHP     Mariners         22
63. Sean West           RHP     Marlins          21
68. Ryan Tucker         RHP     Marlins          20
71. Christopher Volstad RHP     Marlins          20
94. Brett Sinkbeil      RHP     Marlins          22
18. Fernando Martinez   OF      Mets             18
26. Philip Humber       RHP     Mets             24
30. Mike Pelfrey        RHP     Mets             23
34. Carlos Gomez        OF      Mets             21
93. Christopher Marrero OF      Nationals        18
27. Brandon Erbe        RHP     Orioles          19
55. Billy Rowell        3B      Orioles          18
96. Pedro Beato         RHP     Orioles          20
52. Kevin Kouzmanoff    3B      Padres           25
89. Cesar Carillo       RHP     Padres           23
95. Cedric Hunter       OF      Padres           19
37. Carlos Carrasco     RHP     Phillies         20
99. Kyle Drabek         RHP     Phillies         19
15. Andrew McCutchen    OF      Pirates          20
83. Brad Lincoln        RHP     Pirates          22
38. Eric Hurley         RHP     Rangers          21
61. Edinson Volquez     RHP     Rangers          23
41. Clay Buchholz       RHP     Red Sox          22
48. Jacoby Ellsbury     OF      Red Sox          23
86. Michael Bowden      RHP     Red Sox          20
4. Homer Bailey         RHP     Reds             21
9. Jay Bruce            OF      Reds             20
53. Joey Votto          1B      Reds             23
24. Troy Tulowitzki     SS      Rockies          22
33. Franklin Morales    LHP     Rockies          21
39. Dexter Fowler       OF      Rockies          21
46. Jason Hirsh         RHP     Rockies          25
49. Chris Iannetta      C       Rockies          24
66. Ubaldo Jimenez      RHP     Rockies          23
70. Ian Stewart         3B      Rockies          22
1. Alex Gordon          3B      Royals           23
21. Billy Butler        OF      Royals           21
23. Luke Hochevar       RHP     Royals           23
7. Cameron Maybin       OF      Tigers           20
17. Andrew Miller       LHP     Tigers           22
13. Matt Garza          RHP     Twins            23
81. Glenn Perkins       LHP     Twins            24
84. Kevin Slowey        RHP     Twins            23
90. Chris Parmelee      OF      Twins            19
58. John Danks          LHP     White Sox        22
69. Ryan Sweeney        OF      White Sox        22
72. Josh Fields         3B      White Sox        24
2. Philip Hughes        RHP     Yankees          21
22. Jose Tabata         OF      Yankees          18
56. Joba Chamberlain    RHP     Yankees          21
65. Humberto Sanchez    RHP     Yankees          24
92. Dellin Betances     RHP     Yankees          19

Projection Systems

Nice article on ESPN by BP alumn Jonah Keri on projection systems. I liked this bit:

"With all these tools at their disposal, you might expect the experts to achieve huge success rates, routinely nailing the vast majority of their projections. But various studies, done by industry leaders and outsiders alike, peg the success rate for a typical weighted three-year projection system like Marcel at about 65 percent. The goal for primo projectionists is to eke out a bit more accuracy, for a year-to-year success rate approaching 70 percent. A perfect projection system, or even something close to it, is widely considered to be impossible -- at least until stat-generating robots replace human beings at Yankee Stadium."

That's a testament to the inherent variablity in the game and in the end what draws us to it.

Team Running - New York Yankees

Today in our continuing series we'll take a look at the Yankees baserunning in 2006. As a team the Yankees finished 28th at -9.28 runs when not considering EqSBR and 21st (-9.33) when EqSBR was included. Johnny Damon came out far ahead of any other Yankee at +3.28 runs and has historically been a very good baserunner (my data goes back only since 2000).

Year     Opp   EqGAR   Opp   EqAAR    Opp   EqSBR   Opp   EqHAR   Total
2000      76    3.18    56    3.21     45   -0.69    59    3.84    9.53
2001      28    0.32    41   -0.99     38    0.82    47    2.24    2.39
2002      40   -0.64    37    2.11     36   -0.11    42   -0.39    0.97
2003      41   -0.79    37    1.75     51    1.16    56   -0.83    1.30
2004      31   -1.02    27    0.11     41    0.09    52    4.50    3.67
2005      42    0.64    19    2.84     54    1.66    66    0.04    5.18
2006      49   -0.12    36    2.16     35   -0.41    52    3.28    4.90

Totals   307    1.57   253   11.19    300    2.52   374   12.67   27.95

Damon has been particularly effective in advancing on hits and fly balls and has been a break even basestealer and runner when advancing on ground outs. In 2006 he ranked 5th in EqHAR and in 2000 ranked second overall to Tom Goodwin, in 2004 he ranked 19th overall, and in 2005 ranked 7th.


On the flip side Jorge Posada has been the worst baserunner in baseball from an aggregate perspective since 2000. Here is the shortlist.

Jorge Posada    -25.5
Jim Thome       -23.4
Benjie Molina   -22.7 
Frank Thomas    -21.2
Javy Lopez      -21.1
Pat Burrell     -19.5
Paul Konerko    -15.2
Victor Martinez -13.6  (starting in 2002)

Keep in mind that these numbers are not a direct reflection of running speed but rather the intersection of running speed, judgement, and opportunities. Still, opportunities even out over the course of seven years for regular players and so there is clearly a heavy dose of running speed involved.

As far as 2007 is concerned it now appears we won't be seeing Bernie Williams and so there will be some addition by subtraction although Hideki Matsui was -0.06, -0.99, and -0.19 from 2003 through 2005 and so he's basically been a break-even runner as well. Interestingly Bobby Abreu has been consistently inconsistent and depsite turning in a good 2006 (+3.94) and 2004 (+4.16) has had other poor seasons (-3.05 in 2005, -3.48 in 2003, and -3.42 in 2000). The primary difference appears to be how well he's done in EqAAR which is inherently more variable.

Equivalent Stolen Base Runs
Name              Team    SB    PO     CS  EqSBR
Derek Jeter       NYA      33     0      5   1.90
Bobby Abreu       NYA       9     0      2   0.44
Kevin Thompson    NYA       2     0      0   0.42
Jorge Posada      NYA       3     0      0   0.28
Gary Sheffield    NYA       3     0      1   0.22
Bernie Williams   NYA       2     0      0   0.19
Jason Giambi      NYA       2     0      0   0.19
Hideki Matsui     NYA       1     0      0   0.15
Miguel Cairo      NYA      13     2      1   0.14
Kevin Reese       NYA       1     0      0   0.10
Alex Rodriguez    NYA      12     0      4   0.02
Bubba Crosby      NYA       3     0      1   0.02
Aaron Guiel       NYA       2     0      1  -0.38
Nick Green        NYA       1     0      1  -0.40
Johnny Damon      NYA      25     0     10  -0.41
Andy Phillips     NYA       2     0      2  -0.82
Robinson Cano     NYA       5     2      2  -0.93
Melky Cabrera     NYA      12     1      5  -1.18

Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs
Name              Team   Opp    OA  ExHAR  EqHAR  HARate
Johnny Damon      NYA      52     0   8.23   3.28     140
Melky Cabrera     NYA      36     1   6.18   1.34     122
Miguel Cairo      NYA      13     0   1.80   0.46     126
Andy Phillips     NYA      15     0   3.25   0.43     113
Kevin Thompson    NYA       5     0   0.45   0.39     186
Terrence Long     NYA       4     0   1.04   0.33     131
Nick Green        NYA       7     0   1.07   0.24     123
Aaron Guiel       NYA       5     0   0.88   0.21     124
Bubba Crosby      NYA       8     0   1.43   0.20     114
Bobby Abreu       NYA      16     0   4.48   0.19     104
Andy Cannizaro    NYA       1     0   0.03   0.09     390
Kevin Reese       NYA       1     0   0.03  -0.03       0
Sal Fasano        NYA       3     0   0.12  -0.12       0
Craig Wilson      NYA       4     0   0.37  -0.16      59
Kelly Stinnett    NYA       4     0   0.24  -0.24       0
Robinson Cano     NYA      39     0   5.83  -0.27      95
Gary Sheffield    NYA      10     0   2.28  -0.28      88
Hideki Matsui     NYA      18     0   2.92  -0.37      87
Alex Rodriguez    NYA      41     1   7.37  -0.52      93
Bernie Williams   NYA      29     1   4.91  -1.54      69
Derek Jeter       NYA      60     1   6.33  -1.81      71
Jason Giambi      NYA      44     1   5.45  -3.50      36
Jorge Posada      NYA      46     0   6.78  -4.21      38

Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs
Name              Team   Opp ExGAR  EqGAR GARate
Nick Green        NYA       6  0.74   0.32   1.43
Hideki Matsui     NYA       7  0.16   0.07   1.40
Kelly Stinnett    NYA       4  0.24   0.06   1.23
Kevin Reese       NYA       2  0.06   0.04   1.67
Jaret Wright      NYA       1  0.01  -0.01   0.00
Alex Rodriguez    NYA      26  2.22  -0.02   0.99
Bubba Crosby      NYA       3  0.03  -0.03   0.00
Derek Jeter       NYA      24  1.25  -0.03   0.98
Craig Wilson      NYA       1  0.03  -0.03   0.00
Bobby Abreu       NYA      10  0.28  -0.10   0.66
Andy Phillips     NYA       9  0.70  -0.10   0.85
Terrence Long     NYA       1  0.11  -0.11   0.00
Sal Fasano        NYA       2  0.11  -0.11   0.00
Johnny Damon      NYA      49  3.70  -0.12   0.97
Aaron Guiel       NYA       5  0.28  -0.13   0.55
Gary Sheffield    NYA       4  0.15  -0.15   0.00
Miguel Cairo      NYA      13  0.61  -0.24   0.61
Melky Cabrera     NYA      24  1.93  -0.33   0.83
Robinson Cano     NYA      32  3.20  -0.35   0.89
Kevin Thompson    NYA       6  0.61  -0.44   0.27
Jason Giambi      NYA      18  1.06  -0.68   0.36
Bernie Williams   NYA      31  1.94  -0.75   0.61
Jorge Posada      NYA      20  1.22  -0.79   0.35

Equivalent Air Advancement Runs
Name              Team  Opps ExAAR  EqAAR AARate
Johnny Damon      NYA      36  5.82   2.16   1.37
Miguel Cairo      NYA       7  1.36   0.62   1.46
Melky Cabrera     NYA      28  2.76   0.60   1.22
Andy Phillips     NYA      12  1.29   0.41   1.32
Bobby Abreu       NYA      12  1.40   0.39   1.28
Hideki Matsui     NYA      11  1.49   0.22   1.15
Derek Jeter       NYA      43  3.07   0.17   1.05
Nick Green        NYA       2  0.59   0.15   1.25
Bubba Crosby      NYA       4  0.65   0.14   1.21
Aaron Guiel       NYA       2  0.00   0.03   6.54
Craig Wilson      NYA       2 -0.01   0.01   0.00
Terrence Long     NYA       1 -0.01   0.01   0.00
Kevin Reese       NYA       2  0.00   0.00   0.00
Kelly Stinnett    NYA       1  0.00   0.00   0.00
Sal Fasano        NYA       2  0.00   0.00   0.00
Alex Rodriguez    NYA      32  2.07  -0.02   0.99
Gary Sheffield    NYA       2  0.04  -0.04   0.00
Bernie Williams   NYA      22  3.11  -0.14   0.95
Jorge Posada      NYA      31  3.80  -0.21   0.94
Kevin Thompson    NYA       4  0.64  -0.64   0.00
Robinson Cano     NYA      19  1.46  -1.41   0.04
Jason Giambi      NYA      19  1.60  -1.41   0.12

And More Changing the Rules

In the last post I covered, for the most part, the rules on the field that will be changing in 2007. This was the first time rule changes had been made since 1996. Here is a link to the official document and there are a few others as well.

Rule 4.10(d) has been amended so that a regulation game called with the score tied now becomes a suspended game.

Only common sense. Now if they would only do the same for games "suspended" because of rain.

A Casebook Comment to Rule 6.05(a) has been added to the rules to prohibit fielders from catching a ball in the dugout or other out-of-play area. Fielders may no longer enter the dugout to make a catch. Fielders may still reach into the dugout to make a catch but they may no longer step into the dugout to do so.

Specifically the rule states that fielders "must have one or both feet on or over the playing surface and neither foot on the ground inside the dugout or in any other out-of-play area." Seems obvious. A fielder shouldn't be allowed to record an out while not on the field of play.

One base, if a fielder deliberately touches a pitched ball with his cap, mask or any part of his uniform detached from its proper place on his person. The ball is in play, and the award is made rom the position of the runner at the time the ball was touched.

This codifies the existing interpretation.

A new Casebook Comment provides that a pitcher is not required to come to a complete stop when sing the set position with no runners on base. However, the Casebook Comment provides for the mpire to declare a quick pitch if, in the umpire’s judgment, the pitcher delivers the ball in a deliberate effort to catch the batter off guard (for which the penalty is a ball when no runners are on base).

This also seems like a codification of what the normal practice has been.

There were also scoring rule changes (section 10.00 of the rules) made, a summary of which can be found here. One of the interesting changes is that the wording in rules 10.09(b) (not 10.08(b) as the document says) has been changed so that a batter will be awarded a hit on a sac bunt if "ordinary effort" rather than a "perfect play" would have retired him had the fielder not chosen to try and put out another runner.

There is also now a possibly wider definition of defensive indifference covered under rule 10.08(g) (and not under 10.07(g) as the document says). Under the old rule "No stolen base shall be scored when a runner advances solely because of the defensive team’s indifference to his advance. Score as a fielder’s choice." Under the new rule the scorer is instructed to take into account the "totality" of the circumstances. This could be interpreted as including when a catcher and/or pitcher simply seem unconcerned with the runner and even when a half-hearted play is actually made on the runner. It'll be interesting to see how scorers use the new wording.

In other changes:

Added requirement that relief pitcher must be credited with at least 1/3 of an inning pitched. (Rule 10.19(c))

Corrected parenthetical to "exclude" catcher’s interference, not “include” it. (Rule 10.16)

League empowered to order a reversal, even if official scorer does not wish to change the call. (Rules 10.01(a) and 10.01(b)(1))

Interesting. Taking a little power away from the scorer.

Wild pitch of passed ball should not be charged if defensive team makes an out before runners advance. (Rule 10.13 Comment)

Batter not charged with grounding into double play if batter is called out due to interference by preceding runner. (Rule 10.02(a)(17) Comment)

Caught stealing, not charged if batter would not have earned a stolen base if safe. (Rule 10.07(h))

Added obstruction to the list of events that preserves a consecutive game hitting streak. (Rule 10.23(a))

Changing the Rules

For the first time in more than a decade there are some rule changes that will be implemented in 2007. Among them (from the MLB.com story with my comments below):

Time between pitches: The allotment for delivering the ball with no one on base has been reduced, from 20 seconds to 12. The price for each violation is a ball.

It'll be interesting to see if this is actually enforced. I can't imagine it will in any but the most egregious cases since it'll be difficult to implement the timing. Still, a nice idea.

Batter's box presence: Conversely, an automatic strike will be assessed each time a batter violates the rule requiring they keep one foot in the batter's box throughout his at-bat, except for certain game-play conditions -- during which he is still not allowed to leave the dirt area surrounding the plate.

Now this one is more interesting and is easily enforceable since it will be visible to everyone. The wiggle room is obviously in the "certain game-play conditions".

Ball scuffing: Rule 3.02 now calls for an automatic 10-game suspension for any player who intentionally defaces the ball. (Previously, a first offense led to the pitch being called a ball, a warning to the pitcher and an announcement of violation.)

Wow. This one certainly has some teeth to it and will undoubtedly lead to appeals if a player is so punished.

No reason for rosin: The same Rule 3.02 now specifically prohibits placing "soil, rosin, paraffin, licorice, sandpaper, emery paper or other foreign substance" on the ball. The rule's penalty phase dictates, "The umpire shall demand the ball and remove the offender from the game. In addition, the offender shall be suspended automatically for 10 games."

Same as above - could this be in response to "Gamblergate" in the 2006 World Series?

Gender objectivity: The rulebook now includes the disclaimer that references "to 'he,' 'him' or 'his' shall be deemed to be a reference to 'she,' 'her' or 'hers'" where applicable.

I'm curious as to just how many places in the rule book this might apply to?

Update: Interesting comments from Nate Silver on BP Unfiltered. I especially liked "I watched parts of the first inning of Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, trying to time the break between pitches under this definition (this is harder than you’d think, since FOX was usually more inclined to show a close-up of Roger Clemens' flaring nostrils than the batter getting ready for the pitch)." Amen. See this column. And as Nate points out the variability in time between pitches if often the result of the batter and not the pitcher and so the rule about keeping one foot in the box will likely make a bigger difference.

Throwing Arms

Nice article this morning by John Walsh on outfield arms over at THT. For Rockies fans it should be nice to see both Willy Taveras and Brad Hawpe in the upper right hand quadrant of his scatter plot (note to John, keep the scatter plots coming as we really really like them). Hawpe's defense and particularly his throwing arm have been one of the better kept secrets in baseball the past several seasons.

This also ties in with a comment I heard Assistant GM for the Rockies Bill Geivett make on the Denver sports talk radio station yesterday. In talking about the Jason Jennings trade he first discussed Taveras' defense and especially his throwing arm as an asset in the large outfield spaces of Coors Field.

Here's a couple other links I forgot Yesterday:

Nate Silver on PECOTA

Rockies Top 10 Prospects

Aging and the Cubs

In my column today on BP I discuss the aging of teams and how that might relate, in the big picture anyway, to winning games on the field. In that column I showed an example of the Detroit Tigers from 1980 through 2006 and how team age tracked with winning percentage to a certain degree.

I thought it would also be interesting to take a look at the Cubs and so the graph below tracks the Normalized Weighted Age or NWA (defined as the weighted age of the team divided by the mean weighted age for the league and year where weighted age is calculated by weighting plate appearances and innings pitched and then multiplying the position player age by .6 and the pitcher age by .4) and winning percentage by year.



What's interesting here of course is that as the Cubs teams of the late 1960s with Ron Santo, Billy Williams, and Fergie Jenkins matured they improved. In the 1970s the team age fell to around league average and the record hovered just under .500. As the 1980s dawned the team initially got younger before Dallas Green brought in a set of veterans (Larry Bowa, Ron Cey, Gary Matthews, Dennis Eckersley) that took them to a .596 winning percentage in 1984.

Those veterans then moved on or retired and a very young team (Mark Grace, Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith, Greg Maddux) in 1989 was able to become an exception to the general rule and win the division. The team then got older in the early 1990s (Grace and Ryne Sandburg being the core) and returned to mediocrity before bringing in veteran pitchers like Kevin Tapani and Terry Mullholland and position players Gary Gaetti, Mickey Morandini, Scott Servias, and Lance Johnson along with a maturing Sammy Sosa for their Wild Card berth in 1998.

That team as well was on its last gasps and quickly crashed although they restocked with veterans Eric Young, Matt Stairs, and Jon Lieber to remain respectable in 2001. The young pitchers combined with a good mix of veteran and young positions players had the Cubs in the "sweet spot" in 2003 and 2004 although they did not capitalize. The last several years are more painful but obviously the team has gotten younger (especially on the mound in 2006) and performed poorly.

Given the massive free agent spending this winter the NWA for 2007 will likely rise to the 1.2-1.5 range and Cubs fans anyway, expect the winning percentage to rise as well.

Dayton Moore Speaks

Good friend Ron Hostetter posted a nice overview of a talk Royals GM Dayton Moore gave at his brother's church several days ago. I thought these snippets (questions and answers that Ron paraphrased) were interesting...

Moore expressed his belief that the success of a baseball player depends mostly upon his moral character. He mentioned that there were several players in Kansas City that he felt did not have the character needed to be successful, and those players are now gone. (Affeldt? Burgos?)

And then a question...

Q: What will happen with Mark Teahen?

A: Teahen will ultimately play the outfield. He could play third or DH to spell other players, but ultimately, he will be an outfielder.

And the answer to another question related to Zack Greinke but not specifically related to him it didn't seem...

We're finding that a lot of our players come from broken homes, and who have never really learned wrong from right. They are immature and don't know how to handle being on their own. We've created a new Character and Leadership Program in the minors to help teach players these things. We discuss things like "how did Jackie Robinson react, and how would you react?" We hope to give these kids some direction and develop them into strong young men with character.

Links on a Wednesday

Just a couple of interesting links today.

Interview with Steve Stone - Will Carroll has a great long form interview with Stone on BP today. I was particularly interested in Stone's description of why it is he often "first guessed" managers and players rather than waiting to second guess or simply not taking the chance of being wrong. Like Will, I grew up watching and listening to Stone and continue to think he is among the best announcers in the game. It's strange that he doesn't have a regular broadcasting gig for the upcoming season.

Josh Hamilton - A very well-written piece on the Devil Rays former first round draft choice who was drafted by the Cubs in the rule 5 draft and then sold to the Reds. It will be interesting to see what Hamilton has left after eight surgeries and the punishment he's inflicted on himself in the way of drugs and alcohol.

Team Running - Arizona Diamondbacks

Last week in my chat on Baseball Prospectus a reader had the following question:

JK (Boston): Hey Dan - I know he hasn't been flashy with his moves - but is there a GM that has done a better job of positioning his team for the future while also putting together a competitive team for 2007 than Josh Byrnes? The D-backs have youth and talent at every position and even with some of the back-ups (Callaspo and Hairston) - he's also collected three average/slightly above average starters capable of 200 IP's over the last 8 months without giving up a Grade A prospect and without a nausiating long-term contract. I know Rizzo and Garigiola are responsible for most of the prospects...but Byrnes has done everything he should since taking over.

I couldn't really disagree with JK and so along with their fancy new uniforms this got me to thinking about the youth of the Diamondbacks and how that translates into good baserunning.

In a column in the series I wrote last summer I noted how the metrics I've developed correlate with age. For example, the following graph shows the correlation between EqHAR (advancing on hits) and age.




As you can see the relationship is fairly strong at an individual level with a correlation coefficient of .74 and so you would expect that young teams would generally do well in the overall baserunning. That's not always the case, however. Florida did finish second in overall baserunning at +8.88 runs (not considering EqSBR) and were also the youngest team in terms of their position players at 25.82 years (weighted by plate appearances). But other young teams included Tampa Bay at 27.78 who finished 21st in baserunning and Atlanta (27.87) who finished 24th. The D'Backs were in fact not a young team in 2006 and were 20th in terms of age of position players at 30.19 years. Of course they'll be getting younger with the departure of Luis Gonzalez to Los Angeles and Craig Counsell to Milwaukee.

In any case it would appear that Orlando Hudson (pictured above) and Stephen Drew along with Eric Brynes are in place to each pick up a few runs on the basepaths for the Snakes in 2007.

Equivalent Stolen Base Runs

Name              Team    SB    PO     CS  EqSBR
Eric Byrnes       ARI      24     2      3   2.15
Stephen Drew      ARI       2     0      0   0.62
Chris Young       ARI       2     0      1   0.26
Andy Green        ARI       1     0      0   0.24
Conor Jackson     ARI       1     0      0   0.15
Carlos Quentin    ARI       1     0      0   0.10
Damion Easley     ARI       1     0      1  -0.14
Chad Tracy        ARI       2     0      1  -0.19
Alberto Callaspo  ARI       0     0      1  -0.44
Luis Gonzalez     ARI       0     0      1  -0.44
Jeff DaVanon      ARI      10     0      4  -0.67
Shawn Green       ARI       4     0      4  -0.68
Orlando Hudson    ARI       9     0      6  -1.50
Craig Counsell    ARI      15     2      8  -2.86

Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs

Name              Team   Opp    OA  ExHAR  EqHAR  HARate
Orlando Hudson    ARI      40     0   5.42   3.01     156
Luis Gonzalez     ARI      56     0   8.99   2.99     133
Jeff DaVanon      ARI      22     0   2.61   1.19     146
Eric Byrnes       ARI      44     0   7.62   1.11     115
Stephen Drew      ARI      17     0   3.96   0.46     112
Chad Tracy        ARI      56     2   7.73   0.30     104
Craig Counsell    ARI      32     1   4.49   0.16     104
Carlos Quentin    ARI      10     0   1.80   0.14     108
Alberto Callaspo  ARI       1     0   0.68   0.06     108
Brandon Webb      ARI       3     0   0.75  -0.01      99
Juan Cruz         ARI       2     0   0.02  -0.02       0
Chris Young       ARI       8     0   1.51  -0.04      97
Russ Ortiz        ARI       1     0   0.06  -0.06       0
Tony Clark        ARI       7     0   1.98  -0.09      96
Enrique Gonzalez  ARI       3     0   0.84  -0.10      88
Scott Hairston    ARI       2     0   0.10  -0.10       0
Jason Grimsley    ARI       2     0   0.20  -0.20       0
Chris Snyder      ARI      11     0   2.44  -0.23      90
Andy Green        ARI       9     0   1.63  -0.45      72
Conor Jackson     ARI      33     1   3.31  -0.63      81
Johnny Estrada    ARI      29     1   5.19  -0.81      84
Damion Easley     ARI      14     1   1.15  -1.12       2
Shawn Green       ARI      40     1   4.68  -1.21      74
Miguel Batista    ARI       5     1   1.45  -1.30      11

Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs

Name              Team   Opp ExGAR  EqGAR GARate
Stephen Drew      ARI      18  2.39   0.66   1.28
Orlando Hudson    ARI      36  3.47   0.55   1.16
Damion Easley     ARI      15  1.01   0.28   1.27
Shawn Green       ARI      22  2.10   0.27   1.13
Andy Green        ARI       8  0.54   0.11   1.20
Chris Young       ARI      10  0.55   0.09   1.16
Orlando Hernandez ARI       2  0.05   0.05   2.02
Craig Counsell    ARI      30  2.29   0.03   1.01
Luis Gonzalez     ARI      26  1.71   0.00   1.00
Miguel Montero    ARI       1  0.05  -0.05   0.00
Livan Hernandez   ARI       1  0.09  -0.09   0.00
Brandon Webb      ARI       3  0.11  -0.11   0.00
Chris Snyder      ARI      14  0.78  -0.14   0.83
Jeff DaVanon      ARI      11  0.36  -0.16   0.54
Carlos Quentin    ARI      12  0.96  -0.19   0.80
Miguel Batista    ARI       2  0.50  -0.24   0.53
Alberto Callaspo  ARI       2  0.38  -0.29   0.25
Chad Tracy        ARI      28  1.07  -0.46   0.57
Johnny Estrada    ARI      18  1.67  -0.52   0.69
Tony Clark        ARI       9  1.50  -0.72   0.52
Conor Jackson     ARI      24  2.65  -1.50   0.43
Eric Byrnes       ARI      32  3.01  -1.59   0.47

Equivalent Air Advancement Runs

Name              Team  Opps ExAAR  EqAAR AARate
Shawn Green       ARI      23  2.67   1.29   1.48
Jeff DaVanon      ARI      21  3.23   1.03   1.32
Damion Easley     ARI      11  1.83   0.60   1.33
Johnny Estrada    ARI      13  1.97   0.38   1.20
Eric Byrnes       ARI      23  0.92   0.30   1.32
Chris Young       ARI       7  0.76   0.25   1.33
Tony Clark        ARI       5  0.41   0.21   1.50
Carlos Quentin    ARI       3  0.56   0.17   1.31
Conor Jackson     ARI      35  4.04   0.12   1.03
Chris Snyder      ARI       3  0.24   0.11   1.46
Brandon Webb      ARI       2 -0.04   0.04   0.00
Scott Hairston    ARI       2 -0.01   0.01   0.00
Alberto Callaspo  ARI       2 -0.01   0.01   0.00
Brandon Lyon      ARI       1  0.00   0.01   0.00
Orlando Hernandez ARI       1  0.00   0.00   0.00
Miguel Batista    ARI       2  0.02  -0.02   0.00
Craig Counsell    ARI      21  3.26  -0.04   0.99
Andy Green        ARI       4  0.40  -0.05   0.87
Orlando Hudson    ARI      22  2.17  -0.12   0.94
Chad Tracy        ARI      43  4.21  -0.17   0.96
Luis Gonzalez     ARI      23  3.38  -0.49   0.85
Stephen Drew      ARI      11  1.79  -0.82   0.54

The Business of Sports

Nice post by David Pinto at Baseball Musings on the MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference. Baseball Prospectus' own Kevin Goldstein was a panelist and it sounds as if the conference was a success. I especially liked this:

Ricciardi also had the best line of the day when asked about clutch hitting. He talked about how there are players who don't panic in certain situations, who can "slow the game down." He mentioned how David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were like that and added, "I've known Manny since he was 15, and I don't think he knows the game is on the line." The Boston crowd loved it.

I also found his description of this company pretty interesting. I wonder how much Cubs tickets to the World Series will go for? The site currently does not have baseball but apparently it will be coming soon...

Update: Sal Baxamusa has a nice overview of the conference on The Hardball Times and Kevin Goldstein notes how J.P. Riccardi gave a mention to VORP.

SABR At Altitude

This morning I had an excellent time attending, along with 27 other members, the annual "Hot Stove" meeting of the Rocky Mountain Chapter of SABR hosted at Breckenridge Brewery right across the street from Coors Field. Before the meeting got under way a door drive consisting of MP3s of game 5 of the 1948 World Series were given away. Needless to say I didn't win and after treasurer Paul Parker noted the passings of Lew Burdette, Steve Barber, and Hank Bauer over the past few days the main program got under way.

Next, Parker introduced Beverly Coleman and Mary Leisring who now chair the Activities committee for the chapter and who have planned several events including our annual banquet which will be held at Coors Field this season in the visitors clubhouse, a trip to see the Rockies minor league affiliate in Casper Wyoming on July 14-15, and a trip to see the Sky Sox play here in Colorado Springs at some point in the season. Tom Virdon then spoke about organizing a trip to the annual SABR convention in July with a possible stop off in Kansas City where the Yankees will be playing directly before the convention. Tom is also a veteran of attending baseball tours and handed out literature that looks very interesting. Discussion of these and other chapter related topics can also be found on the message board.

Then it was on the main events.

First up was Chip Atkison (who incidentally is a data stringer for STATS, Inc. at Coors Field) who presented an overview of the book Baseball Before We Knew It: A Search for the Roots of the Game, by David Block and Tim Wiles. Atkison provided a nice synopsis of the book and the various myths about the development of the game that it sheds light on. Interestingly, the book contains back ground that goes all the way back to the 14th century and the various ball games that were played.

After Atkison spoke Parker introduced the primary subject of the meeting - the humidor. Relating information from the "environmental chamber's" (as the Rockies prefer it be called) creator, Parker mentioned the following:

The chamber can hold 400 dozen baseballs

The chamber is designed to keep the ball at the MLB specifications which dictate that it be between 5 and 5.25 ounces and 9 and 9.25 inches in circumference

The Rockies receive 4 to 5 shipments of balls per season

When the balls are received that are removed from the shipping boxes and immediately stocked in the humidor where they can remain for up to 2 months before they make it into a game

Before each game 10 to 12 dozen are removed from the chamber (possibly 4 to 5 hours before the game), rubbed in Delaware mud by the clubhouse man, and then returned to the chamber until game time.

The balls that will start the game are taken out somewhere around 20 minutes prior to the game and new balls are retrieved from the chamber during the game.

Parker then mentioned an Associated Press article published this morning that states that the commissioner's office has advised teams that all baseballs used in play must be stored at 70 degrees. Joe Garagiola Jr. stated:

"We have contacted all 30 of the clubs, and they have all confirmed to us that they will all be storing their baseballs in a temperature-controlled facility. We`re not going to have humidors every place, but every place will be temperature controlled, and so I think there will be a very high degree of uniformity."

Apparently the majority of teams were already doing this and to me the move makes a good deal of sense. While in many places an environmental chamber may not be cost effective, certainly controlling for temperature seems like a good minimum step. Further Garagiola said that they've mandated that teams only use balls manufactured in the current year.

Next, Parker introduced Dave Dresen, who presented a synopsis of an article published in 2003 in the Professional Geographer regarding baseball at Coors Field. The article can be summarized as follows:

Although one might expect balls to travel about 10% farther at Coors per the model that Robert K. Adair used in The Physics of Baseball, balls actually travel about 6% further (using 1995-1998 data from STATS). I included some more recent data in my column on the subject of Coors Field back in June

Evidence from the meteorological devices installed at Coors during the 1997 season showed that the primary wind vector opposes balls hit to right field and helps to explain why flyballs at Coors Field don't travel as far as would be expected.

When the dimensions of ballparks are taken into account the average fly ball actually ends up closer to the wall in St. Louis (old Busch Stadium) than at Coors. Overall Coors has a 3% advantage over the other National League ballparks

As a result, it is likely that personnel (poor Rockies pitchers) coupled with the general difficulty of pitching at altitude (flatter trajectories on curve balls and pre-humidor shrinking and hardening of baseballs) are the major reason for the increase in homeruns

Finally, Walter Sylvester, who works in the Baseball Operations department for the Rockies, was introduced and opened the floor to questions from the group. In answering one question he noted that a sample of balls are tested when they come out of the chamber to ensure they still meet specifications with the ones that fail the test being used for batting practice. He also opined that he thought that eventually bats may come under the same scrutiny as baseballs and that he thought that the baseballs used in the bullpens by pitchers also come from the chamber (which makes sense since a pitcher warming up should use baseballs that are as close to those used in the game as possible).

Regarding the chamber it is his view that at the end of the day it really comes down to personnel. In fact and most interestingly, he seemed to lean more towards the position that the chamber shouldn't be used since it can and should be made to work to the Rockies advantage both on the field and psychologically (for example an ad for the firm 5280 in the visitor's clubhouse reminding the opposing teams of where they are). Although he wasn't asked about roster construction in those conditions (I did ask the question afterwards and he said he thought expanding the number of pitchers, for example, would be situational in terms of how the season was progressing) nor about the so-called hangover effect for Rockies hitters, he made the point that excellent pitchers such as Roy Halladay and Luke Hochevar have come out of Colorado and so it is possible to succeed at altitude with good players (of course the counter argument that the same rules don't apply at the high school and college levels wasn't addressed). To this comment he received a nice round of applause. He also cited the improved pitching of the Rockies in 2006 on the strength of Jason Jennings and Aaron Cook and not the chamber as most responsible for run scoring being down a bit at Coors.

In answering a question about using chambers at the minor league level he had some disparaging words for Colorado Springs calling it "the worst environment" to play baseball in. Still, he thinks there may be some advantage although the Rockies with Jeff Francis and the Dodgers with Jackson in Las Vegas have sought to avoid too many starts in those environments.

Yours truly then jumped in and asked to what the front office attributes the upturn in run scoring over the final 28 games of the 2006 season at Coors Field? The chart below tells the tale.



In answering the question Sylvester noted that he assists with arbitration cases for the Rockies in the case of Matt Holliday who looked great in September, the team attributed the higher run environment to a myriad of causes including September callups and the team being out of the race and the player's relaxed. He apparently did not see any significance in it and explicitly denied that anything was different with the chamber. In looking at trends like these over short time spans he also noted that he's a big believer in examining strength of schedule and in this case even the possibility of wind patterns that were out of ordinary. Certainly this is a small sample size and so it will be interesting to see whether Coors plays more like it did the first 53 games of 2006 (8.96 runs per game vs. the league average of 9.00) or the final 28.

There were also questions related to the signing of Matzuzaka in Boston and the inevitable Todd Helton questions related to the recent trade talks. The front office still considers Helton a big asset on offense (Sylvester is a big believer in working deep counts, drawing walks, and tiring starters and mentioned that "not making an out is very valuable") and is hoping that his conditioning program will allow him to regain some of his power this season. However, at 33 he said the organization certainly "hopes" Helton can get better but acknowledged the aging curve is working against Helton while working in favor of Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, and Brad Hawpe.

When asked if the shortstop and catching positions are Troy Tulowitzki's and Chris Iannetta's for the losing, he definitely agreed that they would have to play themselves out of jobs. He also sees the team doing a lot more running in 2007.

All in all an enjoyable morning in February with snow still on the ground.

Losing Weight and Getting Younger

Wouldn't that be great?

This week my column on Baseball Prospectus focuses on the trend in decrease in player weight for players who debuted in the second decade of the twentieth century. After exploring a few theories as to why this occurred I zero in on the upsurge in the number of players used during that period which resulted in younger and therefore smaller players entering the game. The following graph shows the trend.



The remainder of the article discusses some of the reasons why this upsurge occurred and I draw an analogy between the experimentation in baseball during this period and the Burgess Shale fossils.

All-Stars 2008

Yes, the Yankees have received the 2008 All-Star game. There has been some controversy about it with critics wondering whether it makes sense to host the game in a park about to close and since it is likely the Yankees will be playing in the post season which is a more fitting way to say goodbye to Yankee Stadium. To me, it makes sense to honor historic parks that are on the way out since the new parks will be eventually get their turn.

The 2007 game will be played on July 10th at AT&T Park in San Francisco and Commissioner Bud Selig announced on January 15th that Busch Stadium in St. Louis will serve as the host of the 2009 Midsummer Classic.

The following are a few notes released by MLB.com on some of the background surrounding the 2008 game.

The 2008 Major League Baseball All-Star Game will be the 79th Midsummer Classic.

This will be the first time in baseball history that an All-Star Game has been held in a ballpark in the final year that it will be open.

It will mark the fourth time that Yankee Stadium has played host to the All-Star Game, joining 1939, 1960 (the second ASG of the season) and 1977, and it will be the eighth Midsummer Classic staged in New York City (Polo Grounds, 1934 and 1942; Ebbets Field, 1949; and Shea Stadium, 1964).

The National League has a 2-1 advantage in the three previous All-Star Games played at Yankee Stadium, winning the last two contests. The American League won by a 3-1 score in 1939; the National League blanked the A.L. 6-0 in 1960; and the N.L. prevailed 7-5 in 1977.

The Yankees have had the most All-Star players (112) and the most total All-Star selections (349) of any other Major League Baseball franchise since the Midsummer Classic originated in 1933.

Derek Jeter is the only Yankee to be named the All-Star Game Most Valuable Player since the MVP was first given in 1962. The Yankee captain earned the honors after a 3-for-3 effort with two RBI and a run scored in the 2000 All-Star Game at Atlanta's Turner Field.

The Man Behind the Numbers

Great article profiling Sean Forman of baseball reference.

Team Running - Chicago Cubs

In our second installment of team running metrics I offer the Chicago Cubs. As a team the Cubs ranked 11th without EqSBR included at +2.66 runs and 9th when it was included at -2.94 runs. Essentially the Cubs did fairly well because no one did really really badly. Even their worse runner in Michal Barrett (-2.25) only cost them a couple runs while most everyone else, for example Jacque Jones at +.06, was mediocre. Of course, the team will look much different in 2007 with Alfonso Soriano in centerfield (-4.41 in 2007 near the bottom), Mark DeRosa (-1.87), and Cliff Floyd (+.15) in the outfield and with hopefully a full season from Derrek Lee at first base. I certainly wouldn't look for them to improve as the team has gotten older (they had a weighted mean age in 2006 of .98 and so were slightly younger than the average Major League team and age is correlated with doing well in these metrics).

Equivalent Stolen Base Runs
Name              Team     SB    PO     CS  EqSBR
Juan Pierre       CHN      58     1     20   1.40
Jacque Jones      CHN       9     0      1   0.99
Ryan Theriot      CHN      11     1      2   0.11
Carlos Zambrano   CHN       1     0      0   0.10
Greg Maddux       CHN       1     0      0   0.10
Angel Pagan       CHN       4     0      2   0.06
Jerry Hairston    CHN       3     1      0  -0.02
Cesar Izturis     CHN       0     0      1  -0.24
Neifi Perez       CHN       0     0      1  -0.24
Tony Womack       CHN       1     0      1  -0.29
Aramis Ramirez    CHN       2     0      1  -0.32
Todd Walker       CHN       0     0      1  -0.44
Phil Nevin        CHN       0     1      0  -0.63
Matt Murton       CHN       5     1      2  -0.79
Freddie Bynum     CHN       8     0      4  -0.80
Derrek Lee        CHN       6     0      4  -0.87
Michael Barrett   CHN       0     1      1  -0.90
Ronny Cedeno      CHN       7     0      8  -2.81


Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs
Name              Team    Opp    OA  ExHAR  EqHAR  HARate
Todd Walker       CHN      31     0   3.21   1.55     148
Matt Murton       CHN      45     0   6.68   1.43     121
Neifi Perez       CHN      20     0   5.43   0.98     118
Juan Pierre       CHN      47     1   5.36   0.81     115
Ryan Theriot      CHN      15     0   2.34   0.63     127
Freddie Bynum     CHN      10     0   1.00   0.31     132
Tony Womack       CHN       5     0   0.89   0.23     125
Angel Pagan       CHN      15     0   1.35   0.18     114
Ronny Cedeno      CHN      32     1   6.64   0.18     103
Cesar Izturis     CHN       3     0   0.14   0.08     155
Scott Moore       CHN       2     0   0.71   0.07     110
Juan Mateo        CHN       1     0   0.68   0.06     108
Will Ohman        CHN       1     0   0.02   0.02     198
Phil Nevin        CHN       9     0   1.48  -0.01      99
Derrek Lee        CHN      14     0   1.37  -0.03      98
Sean Marshall     CHN       1     0   0.04  -0.04       0
Carlos Zambrano   CHN       2     0   0.04  -0.04       0
Glendon Rusch     CHN       1     0   0.08  -0.08       0
Jerry Hairston    CHN       5     0   1.57  -0.10      94
Henry Blanco      CHN      17     0   1.92  -0.42      78
John Mabry        CHN      10     0   0.89  -0.50      44
Michael Barrett   CHN      27     1   3.31  -0.51      85
Aramis Ramirez    CHN      47     1   7.69  -0.57      93
Carlos Marmol     CHN       2     0   0.64  -0.64       0
Jacque Jones      CHN      33     1   4.32  -0.73      83


Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs
Name              Team    Opp ExGAR  EqGAR GARate
Ronny Cedeno      CHN      32  3.27   1.23   1.38
Neifi Perez       CHN      13  0.91   0.92   2.01
Ryan Theriot      CHN       7  1.17   0.77   1.66
Juan Pierre       CHN      66  6.80   0.24   1.04
Jerry Hairston    CHN       6  0.27   0.17   1.65
Carlos Marmol     CHN       1  0.12   0.15   2.19
Tony Womack       CHN       4  0.17   0.14   1.84
Michael Restovich CHN       1  0.02   0.08   4.39
Angel Pagan       CHN      10  0.88   0.07   1.09
Cesar Izturis     CHN       6  0.23   0.03   1.12
Greg Maddux       CHN       1  0.26   0.01   1.04
Freddie Bynum     CHN      10  1.25  -0.01   0.99
Carlos Zambrano   CHN       3  0.17  -0.02   0.89
Bob Howry         CHN       1  0.03  -0.03   0.00
Derrek Lee        CHN       1  0.04  -0.04   0.00
Todd Walker       CHN      17  0.81  -0.04   0.95
Henry Blanco      CHN      15  1.31  -0.05   0.96
John Mabry        CHN      15  0.62  -0.06   0.91
Geovany Soto      CHN       2  0.07  -0.07   0.00
Phil Nevin        CHN       9  0.36  -0.17   0.54
Jacque Jones      CHN      36  2.68  -0.23   0.91
Aramis Ramirez    CHN      33  2.82  -0.67   0.76
Matt Murton       CHN      38  3.00  -0.80   0.73
Michael Barrett   CHN      25  1.32  -1.16   0.12


Equivalent Air Advancement Runs
Name              Team   Opps ExAAR  EqAAR AARate
Juan Pierre       CHN      45  5.02   1.84   1.37
Derrek Lee        CHN      11  1.11   0.75   1.68
Ronny Cedeno      CHN      11  0.94   0.47   1.50
Michael Barrett   CHN      17  0.93   0.31   1.33
Ryan Theriot      CHN       7  0.07   0.28   5.08
Greg Maddux       CHN       1  0.24   0.10   1.42
Todd Walker       CHN      17  1.62   0.08   1.05
Scott Moore       CHN       2  0.03   0.06   2.92
Neifi Perez       CHN      10 -0.02   0.05   0.00
Jacque Jones      CHN      20  1.34   0.04   1.03
Cesar Izturis     CHN       4 -0.03   0.03   0.00
Tony Womack       CHN       2  0.01   0.02   2.16
Geovany Soto      CHN       1  0.00   0.01   0.00
Sean Marshall     CHN       1  0.00   0.01   0.00
Buck Coats        CHN       1  0.00   0.00   0.00
Jerry Hairston    CHN       1  0.01  -0.01   0.00
Matt Murton       CHN      29  3.08  -0.30   0.90
Freddie Bynum     CHN       5  0.68  -0.68   0.00
Phil Nevin        CHN       6  1.03  -0.68   0.34
Henry Blanco      CHN      13  0.69  -0.69   0.00
John Mabry        CHN       5  0.70  -0.70   0.00
Aramis Ramirez    CHN      28  3.03  -0.85   0.72
Angel Pagan       CHN       6  1.39  -1.04   0.25

Chat Transcript 02/06

The chat transcript from today can be found on the BP. Thanks to everyone who participated and all the great questions.

I was having some difficulty with the chat interface (special characters caused some posting problems) and so I had a couple of answers I wanted to get to but couldn't post. In any case here was one particular question I found interesting:

maxexpos (Montreal): Hey Dan, Could you rank this year's crop of Rookie...Managers? Thanks

Here is the entire answer....

Dan Fox: To recap, here are the five rookie managers for 2007 in no particular order.

Fredi Gonzalez – Marlins

Bud Black – Padres

Bob Geren – A's

Ron Washington – Rangers

Manny Acta – Nationals

All of these guys would seem to be players managers and certainly in the case of Geren, he better be since Ken Macha was fired for supposedly not being much of a communicator. There was a nice article in USA today on these guys and I especially liked this quote:

And Gonzalez, 42, has been reading statistical books by baseball historian Bill James to get a better understanding of slumps. "Sometimes, you have to make a knee-jerk reaction, switching the lineup because a guy is 0-for-12," Gonzalez says. "The great players have a 0-for-20 or a 1-for-35. So, we've got to live with it."

How can you not be rooting for Gonzalez after that?

Washington will certainly be the most interesting to watch since he's kind of a character and is the ultra-player's manager it would seem from the comments I've heard him make this offseason. Acta and Gonzalez will probably get very long leashes since both teams are still developing. Black is also interesting in that he's a pitcher and is the only one to have never never managed in the minor leagues.

Gonzalez, Washington, and Acta were all third base coaches recently and I've (with help from fellow SABR member Neal Williams) done a little work on seeing what effect those coaches have on overall advancement on hits (a derivative of EqHAR) in the period 2000-2006. Here are their number of opportunities (the number of opps that likely would have influence over), the number of runners who were thrown out, and the number of theoretical runs above what would have been expected given the quality and quantity of the opportunities and taking into account how the runners performed relative to other opportunities that the coach was not likely an influence on.

Name                 Opp     OA  EqHAR
Ron Washington      1730     45   10.6
Manny Acta          1032     17    8.1
Fredi Gonzalez      1249     25  -13.7

Acta comes out on top on a per opportunity basis and ranks 29th of the 75 coaches that were looked at during the period. That said, I also discovered that there is no correlation from year to year in terms of coaches (both when they stay on the same team and when they move) and so there is probably very little to learn from this other than Acta was more fortunate and Gonzalez was not.