Nice article on ESPN by BP alumn Jonah Keri on projection systems. I liked this bit:
"With all these tools at their disposal, you might expect the experts to achieve huge success rates, routinely nailing the vast majority of their projections. But various studies, done by industry leaders and outsiders alike, peg the success rate for a typical weighted three-year projection system like Marcel at about 65 percent. The goal for primo projectionists is to eke out a bit more accuracy, for a year-to-year success rate approaching 70 percent. A perfect projection system, or even something close to it, is widely considered to be impossible -- at least until stat-generating robots replace human beings at Yankee Stadium."That's a testament to the inherent variablity in the game and in the end what draws us to it.