Team Running - Arizona Diamondbacks

Last week in my chat on Baseball Prospectus a reader had the following question:

JK (Boston): Hey Dan - I know he hasn't been flashy with his moves - but is there a GM that has done a better job of positioning his team for the future while also putting together a competitive team for 2007 than Josh Byrnes? The D-backs have youth and talent at every position and even with some of the back-ups (Callaspo and Hairston) - he's also collected three average/slightly above average starters capable of 200 IP's over the last 8 months without giving up a Grade A prospect and without a nausiating long-term contract. I know Rizzo and Garigiola are responsible for most of the prospects...but Byrnes has done everything he should since taking over.

I couldn't really disagree with JK and so along with their fancy new uniforms this got me to thinking about the youth of the Diamondbacks and how that translates into good baserunning.

In a column in the series I wrote last summer I noted how the metrics I've developed correlate with age. For example, the following graph shows the correlation between EqHAR (advancing on hits) and age.




As you can see the relationship is fairly strong at an individual level with a correlation coefficient of .74 and so you would expect that young teams would generally do well in the overall baserunning. That's not always the case, however. Florida did finish second in overall baserunning at +8.88 runs (not considering EqSBR) and were also the youngest team in terms of their position players at 25.82 years (weighted by plate appearances). But other young teams included Tampa Bay at 27.78 who finished 21st in baserunning and Atlanta (27.87) who finished 24th. The D'Backs were in fact not a young team in 2006 and were 20th in terms of age of position players at 30.19 years. Of course they'll be getting younger with the departure of Luis Gonzalez to Los Angeles and Craig Counsell to Milwaukee.

In any case it would appear that Orlando Hudson (pictured above) and Stephen Drew along with Eric Brynes are in place to each pick up a few runs on the basepaths for the Snakes in 2007.

Equivalent Stolen Base Runs

Name              Team    SB    PO     CS  EqSBR
Eric Byrnes       ARI      24     2      3   2.15
Stephen Drew      ARI       2     0      0   0.62
Chris Young       ARI       2     0      1   0.26
Andy Green        ARI       1     0      0   0.24
Conor Jackson     ARI       1     0      0   0.15
Carlos Quentin    ARI       1     0      0   0.10
Damion Easley     ARI       1     0      1  -0.14
Chad Tracy        ARI       2     0      1  -0.19
Alberto Callaspo  ARI       0     0      1  -0.44
Luis Gonzalez     ARI       0     0      1  -0.44
Jeff DaVanon      ARI      10     0      4  -0.67
Shawn Green       ARI       4     0      4  -0.68
Orlando Hudson    ARI       9     0      6  -1.50
Craig Counsell    ARI      15     2      8  -2.86

Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs

Name              Team   Opp    OA  ExHAR  EqHAR  HARate
Orlando Hudson    ARI      40     0   5.42   3.01     156
Luis Gonzalez     ARI      56     0   8.99   2.99     133
Jeff DaVanon      ARI      22     0   2.61   1.19     146
Eric Byrnes       ARI      44     0   7.62   1.11     115
Stephen Drew      ARI      17     0   3.96   0.46     112
Chad Tracy        ARI      56     2   7.73   0.30     104
Craig Counsell    ARI      32     1   4.49   0.16     104
Carlos Quentin    ARI      10     0   1.80   0.14     108
Alberto Callaspo  ARI       1     0   0.68   0.06     108
Brandon Webb      ARI       3     0   0.75  -0.01      99
Juan Cruz         ARI       2     0   0.02  -0.02       0
Chris Young       ARI       8     0   1.51  -0.04      97
Russ Ortiz        ARI       1     0   0.06  -0.06       0
Tony Clark        ARI       7     0   1.98  -0.09      96
Enrique Gonzalez  ARI       3     0   0.84  -0.10      88
Scott Hairston    ARI       2     0   0.10  -0.10       0
Jason Grimsley    ARI       2     0   0.20  -0.20       0
Chris Snyder      ARI      11     0   2.44  -0.23      90
Andy Green        ARI       9     0   1.63  -0.45      72
Conor Jackson     ARI      33     1   3.31  -0.63      81
Johnny Estrada    ARI      29     1   5.19  -0.81      84
Damion Easley     ARI      14     1   1.15  -1.12       2
Shawn Green       ARI      40     1   4.68  -1.21      74
Miguel Batista    ARI       5     1   1.45  -1.30      11

Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs

Name              Team   Opp ExGAR  EqGAR GARate
Stephen Drew      ARI      18  2.39   0.66   1.28
Orlando Hudson    ARI      36  3.47   0.55   1.16
Damion Easley     ARI      15  1.01   0.28   1.27
Shawn Green       ARI      22  2.10   0.27   1.13
Andy Green        ARI       8  0.54   0.11   1.20
Chris Young       ARI      10  0.55   0.09   1.16
Orlando Hernandez ARI       2  0.05   0.05   2.02
Craig Counsell    ARI      30  2.29   0.03   1.01
Luis Gonzalez     ARI      26  1.71   0.00   1.00
Miguel Montero    ARI       1  0.05  -0.05   0.00
Livan Hernandez   ARI       1  0.09  -0.09   0.00
Brandon Webb      ARI       3  0.11  -0.11   0.00
Chris Snyder      ARI      14  0.78  -0.14   0.83
Jeff DaVanon      ARI      11  0.36  -0.16   0.54
Carlos Quentin    ARI      12  0.96  -0.19   0.80
Miguel Batista    ARI       2  0.50  -0.24   0.53
Alberto Callaspo  ARI       2  0.38  -0.29   0.25
Chad Tracy        ARI      28  1.07  -0.46   0.57
Johnny Estrada    ARI      18  1.67  -0.52   0.69
Tony Clark        ARI       9  1.50  -0.72   0.52
Conor Jackson     ARI      24  2.65  -1.50   0.43
Eric Byrnes       ARI      32  3.01  -1.59   0.47

Equivalent Air Advancement Runs

Name              Team  Opps ExAAR  EqAAR AARate
Shawn Green       ARI      23  2.67   1.29   1.48
Jeff DaVanon      ARI      21  3.23   1.03   1.32
Damion Easley     ARI      11  1.83   0.60   1.33
Johnny Estrada    ARI      13  1.97   0.38   1.20
Eric Byrnes       ARI      23  0.92   0.30   1.32
Chris Young       ARI       7  0.76   0.25   1.33
Tony Clark        ARI       5  0.41   0.21   1.50
Carlos Quentin    ARI       3  0.56   0.17   1.31
Conor Jackson     ARI      35  4.04   0.12   1.03
Chris Snyder      ARI       3  0.24   0.11   1.46
Brandon Webb      ARI       2 -0.04   0.04   0.00
Scott Hairston    ARI       2 -0.01   0.01   0.00
Alberto Callaspo  ARI       2 -0.01   0.01   0.00
Brandon Lyon      ARI       1  0.00   0.01   0.00
Orlando Hernandez ARI       1  0.00   0.00   0.00
Miguel Batista    ARI       2  0.02  -0.02   0.00
Craig Counsell    ARI      21  3.26  -0.04   0.99
Andy Green        ARI       4  0.40  -0.05   0.87
Orlando Hudson    ARI      22  2.17  -0.12   0.94
Chad Tracy        ARI      43  4.21  -0.17   0.96
Luis Gonzalez     ARI      23  3.38  -0.49   0.85
Stephen Drew      ARI      11  1.79  -0.82   0.54