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Thursday, October 09, 2003

Cubs Rock Marlins

Both games of the NLCS have been great games to watch for Cubs fans. Even though they took the loss in game 1, they battled back twice to tie the score and Sosa's homerun in the bottom of the 9th was one of the great moments in Cubs history.

I'll have to admit that I'm one of the harshest critics of the Cubs for picking up Gonzales. He's never had an on base percentage higher than .322 in a full season and so the Cubs should have known exactly what they were going to get when they picked him up. Couple that with his large salary (4.5M) and by any reasonable measure it was a poor decision. However, in the post season anybody can get hot and right now Gonzales is leading the charge. Going to try and get a ticket for game 7 at Wrigley, not likely however.

On another front I found some interesting statistics on the probabilities of scoring in various situations in this article. I know there are some better stats somewhere, perhaps I'll need to download some retrosheet data and run the numbers once.

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